Idlib will weaken but not break Turkish-Russian ties
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Significance Tensions have risen since Syrian government shelling killed seven Turkish soldiers and a civilian contractor in north-western Syria on February 3. Although President Recep Tayyip Erdogan blames Damascus for the deaths, Russian-Turkish relations have sunk to their lowest point since 2016. Turkey is threatening to use force against Syrian troops, Russia’s close allies, if necessary. Impacts Erdogan will resume dialogue with the United States, against opposition from his enemies in Washington. Turkey’s internal financial difficulties will grow, and foreign investors will continue to leave. Erdogan will clamp down further on the opposition.
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