Spain’s economic recovery from COVID-19 will be slow

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Supply Chains ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Consumer Demand ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Political Opposition ◽  
Spanish Economy ◽  
Fiscal Capacity ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Economic Outlook

Subject Spain's economic outlook. Significance The Spanish economy contracted by 5.2% quarter-on-quarter in January-March due to the lockdown to contain COVID-19. Given that the lockdown was only implemented in the last few weeks of the quarter, the contraction in the second quarter will be much greater. The economy's pre-pandemic vulnerability -- compounded by a staggered lifting of social restrictions and potential for their re-imposition -- and limited fiscal capacity means that a quick economic recovery is very unlikely. Impacts Spain’s auto industry, the second-largest in Europe, will suffer disproportionately due to its reliance on multinational supply chains. The slump in consumer demand and sharply lower oil prices will trigger a decline in the inflation rate. Growing political opposition to Spain’s minority coalition could slow the government's reconstruction efforts.

External factors condition Chile's economic outlook

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Trade Balance ◽  
Power Plants ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
External Factors ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Electricity Prices ◽  
Local Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Copper Mines ◽  
Economic Outlook

Significance This year, Chile will face a complex mix of external factors as it seeks to reverse last year's deceleration of GDP growth. Conflicting effects on areas that include not only the trade balance but also investment, inflation and fiscal revenues make forecasts for the economy's performance this year more than usually uncertain. Impacts Industry estimates suggest that up to half of Chile's 1,000 small copper mines could be forced to close. Because some Chilean power plants use diesel, international oil prices will have an important spin-off effect on electricity prices. In coming months, local growth forecasts will be particularly sensitive to news from overseas -- especially China.

Legacy issues constrain Sudan's economic recovery

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Production ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Content Type ◽  
South Sudanese ◽  
Oil Exports ◽  
Fiscal Revenue

Significance Khartoum has benefited from a fixed per-barrel transit fee given falling oil prices, but the Sudanese economy has yet to recover from the shock caused by South Sudan's secession in 2011. According to the IMF's latest review, Sudan at that point lost three quarters of its oil production, one-half of its fiscal revenue and two-thirds of its international payments capacity. While the economy has begun to stabilise, recovery is fragile. Impacts Khartoum benefits from the delay to transit fee renegotiation, but talks are likely to begin soon. This may provoke renewed confrontations over other issues, such as the border and claims about rebel support. However, a renewed suspension of South Sudanese oil exports would hurt Juba more than Khartoum.

UK voters will ignore budget and elect hung parliament

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
International Economic ◽  
United Kingdom ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Political Event ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Past ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Deficit Reduction

Significance The budget will prove to be all but the last political event before the final campaign and the May 7 general election. Although the detail had to be determined in cooperation with the Liberal Democrats, Osborne's package was an unashamed pitch for a Conservative term of office. The crucial contest at the election will be the government's claim to have delivered on economic recovery and deficit reduction over the past five years, versus the Labour Party's assertion that its own preferred route to budgetary stability is better balanced and more socially acceptable. Impacts The link, if any, between the economy and politics is uncertain: the Conservatives won in 1992 (recession) but lost in 1997 (boom). The United Kingdom has experienced a 'voteless recovery' -- a huge move from pessimism to optimism, with no benefit for the Conservatives. Benign international economic conditions (notably the sharp fall in global oil prices) have boosted growth for 2015. This shift could be easily reversed if oil prices were to return to 2012-14 levels. Assumptions that the 'age of austerity' is over and the budget will achieve balance in the next parliament are very premature.

Trinidad and Tobago economy improves despite concerns

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Trinidad And Tobago ◽  
Foreign Relations ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Gas Production ◽  
Policy Reforms ◽  
Content Type ◽  
International Partnerships ◽  
Terrorism Financing ◽  
The Government ◽  
Economic Outlook

Subject Trinidad and Tobago's economic outlook. Significance After several years of contraction, the Trinidad and Tobago economy is now showing signs of recovery, based on rising natural gas production and an uptick in oil prices. In addition, the government has instituted policy reforms to better control public finances. Efforts are also being made to increase economic cooperation with other countries, but this has been complicated by a mixed picture in terms of foreign relations. Impacts Concerns over Islamist activities and a rise in suspected terrorism financing may mar the economic outlook. Efforts to build new international partnerships may see a rise in some business and infrastructure sectors. Rising gas production and oil prices will boost the hydrocarbons sector.

Iraqi Kurds’ economic recovery will be limited

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Local Government ◽  
Federal Government ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Kurdistan Region ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Past ◽  
Oil Exports ◽  
Economic Outlook

Subject The economic outlook for Iraq’s Kurdish region. Significance The Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI) has seen a limited economic recovery over the past year. It suffered catastrophically following the central government's imposition of sanctions following the region’s abortive 2017 independence bid. Impacts A likely larger federal government allocation to the KRI in the 2019/20 budget will facilitate economic recovery. Increased US pressure to boost Iraqi oil exports to Turkey will increase local government revenues. As both local and federal government revenues depend on oil, falling prices would cause another contraction.

Honduras rebound from 2020 recession will be sluggish

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Free Trade Agreement ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
Central American ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
Health Situation ◽  
Increased Activity ◽  
Poor Infrastructure

Significance Hotels and restaurants, private construction and manufacturing suffered the sharpest declines. A gradual reopening of the economy since June should drive increased activity in the second half of the year unless the health situation worsens, forcing the government to back-pedal. Impacts Inflation will remain within the central bank’s target (5.5% plus or minus 1 percentage point) on the back of moderate oil prices. Corruption, violent crime and poor infrastructure will hinder Honduras’s post-pandemic economic recovery. Implementation of the Dominican Republic-Central American Free Trade Agreement will help diversify Honduras’s exports.

China may struggle to achieve a job-rich GDP recovery

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Export Demand ◽  
Industrial Output ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Defence Spending ◽  
The Government ◽  
First Time ◽  
People's Congress ◽  
Economic Outlook

Subject The economic outlook for China following the lifting of the COVID-19 lockdown. Significance The economic uncertainties due to the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic made this year’s National People’s Congress (NPC) unusually important. After GDP fell 6.8% year-on-year in the first quarter, the government for the first time announced no annual GDP growth target, indicating extreme uncertainty over the extent and durability of recovery. Impacts China’s industrial output will outpace export demand; trade tensions such as anti-dumping cases could rise. US-China tensions will rise, but both sides will be warier than last year of major moves that could jeopardise economic recovery. China’s commitment to high military spending is undiminished by its economic troubles; defence spending will rise as a share of GDP.

COVID-19 strengthens EU drive for economic sovereignty

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Private Sector ◽  
Supply Chains ◽  
Public Investment ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
European Politics ◽  
Economic Stability ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Consensus View ◽  
Pharmaceutical Production ◽  
The Eu

Subject EU economic sovereignty. Significance COVID-19 is increasing momentum within the EU to enhance the bloc’s economic and strategic sovereignty by substantially reducing dependence on non-EU powers, particularly China. While the immediate concern is to become more self-sufficient in medical and pharmaceutical production, leaders are also set on strengthening European sovereignty in critical sectors including technology and automobiles. Impacts A strong economic recovery will be important in determining an EU consensus view concerning the bloc’s main economic competitors. Public investment in the private sector will provide greater economic stability, but more state influence on supply chains and investments. Scepticism of China will become a growing feature in European politics.

Foreign options widen as economy recovers in Jamaica

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
International Relations ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Economic Outlook ◽  
The Imf

Subject Jamaica's political and economic outlook. Significance At the end of April the IMF conducted its fifth review under its stand-by arrangement with Jamaica. Again the news was generally positive, with continued growth, falling unemployment and a buoyant stock exchange. Impacts International relations will face challenges from the Venezuelan crisis and Brexit. Mild economic recovery will not suffice to combat high levels of crime. Forthcoming elections could jeopardise the government’s commitment to reform.

Growth to boost re-election hopes of Bolivia’s Morales

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Balance Of Payments ◽  
International Reserves ◽  
Macroeconomic Policies ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Economic Outlook

Subject Bolivia economic outlook. Significance The Bolivian economy is set to benefit from the increase in oil prices to which the price of its gas exports is pegged. Gas revenues account for most of Bolivia’s export earnings and are a major source of Treasury revenue. Bolivia has followed fairly conservative macroeconomic policies. Having benefited from the previous boom in gas prices, it has weathered the downturn in commodity prices, maintaining its position as one of Latin America’s fastest growing economies. Impacts Inflation is likely to remain subdued over the next twelve-month period. An improved balance of payments situation would help augment Bolivia’s international reserves. Fiscal stability will remain dependent on continued income from gas exploitation.

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