Shallower recession will not boost Russia's GDP hopes

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Central Bank ◽  
Economic Performance ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Domestic Demand ◽  
Productive Capacity ◽  
Monetary Policies ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Third ◽  
Permanent Loss ◽  
Vulnerable Population Groups

Significance The ministry's optimism is based on a recovery in global oil prices, the limited effects of COVID-19 lockdown measures on industries and businesses, and a rebound in domestic demand. It expects economic performance to return to pre-pandemic levels by the third quarter of 2021. Impacts A permanent loss of productive capacity in some sectors would fuel inflation. This and other inflationary pressures may force the central bank to shift from accommodating to restrictive monetary policies. Job losses in small and medium-sized companies will hurt the most vulnerable population groups.

Near-zero growth is expected in Kazakhstan in 2016

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
Banking System ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Domestic Demand ◽  
Living Standards ◽  
External Shocks ◽  
Monetary Policies ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Trading Partners ◽  
Zero Growth

Significance Low global oil prices and GDP declines in Russia and other trading partners caused a slowdown in growth in Kazakhstan in 2015 and early 2016. External shocks led to a large devaluation of the currency, hikes in inflation, and low domestic demand and industrial activity. Savers switched from tenge to dollars, and devaluation brought reduced liquidity and increased volatility in the financial markets, undermining the banking system. Impacts Falling living standards are a key political risk for President Nursultan Nazarbayev. Higher oil prices and a modest Russian recovery may offer Kazakhstan some respite. Tenge depreciation against trading partners' currencies will boost non-commodity exports. 'Dollarisation' of the economy will reduce the central bank's ability to implement monetary policies.

Thai junta's 2015 growth forecast to prove optimistic

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Household Consumption ◽  
Domestic Demand ◽  
Export Growth ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Third ◽  
The Military ◽  
Economic Outlook

Subject 2015 economic outlook. Significance According to the Ministry of Finance's Fiscal Policy Office, GDP growth slowed to between 1.2% and 1.7% in 2014 from 2.9% in 2013. Data released by the Bank of Thailand on December 30 suggest that the final figure is likely to be at the lower end of the range. Recovery in the fourth quarter was modest (at an estimated 1.0%) against 0.6% in the third. The military-backed government forecasts 4.1% GDP growth this year, assuming more tourists, higher domestic demand, export growth and rapid implementation of infrastructure plans. Impacts Sluggish growth will intensify calls for elections, but the junta will not relent, especially until the royal transition has been secured. The 2014 coup may not be the last; this will maintain the long-term contractual risks for investors. Political instability could return by end-2015, dampening household consumption.

Leading central banks mould investor sentiment

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Central Bank ◽  
Federal Reserve ◽  
Developing Economies ◽  
Investor Sentiment ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Euro Crisis ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
Country Specific

Significance In the worst start to a year for US equities since 2008, the benchmark S&P 500 index fell 0.7% during the week ending January 10. December's employment report showed US non-farm payrolls rising by a robust 252,000, but average hourly earnings declined, accentuating deflationary fears. The dollar continued to strengthen against the euro on concerns about a possible euro crisis over Greece and the introduction of sovereign QE by the ECB. With the US Federal Reserve preparing to raise rates, investor sentiment remains fragile. Impacts The tug-of-war between central bank largesse and country-specific, geopolitical and economic risks will become more intense. Markets will focus on renewed fears of 'Grexit' and on concerns about German opposition to an ECB sovereign QE programme. The relentless oil prices slide, exacerbated by the dollar's strength, will put further strain on EM assets. The ruble is likely to weaken further, increasing the scope for contagion to other developing economies.

Low oil prices put pressure on China's energy policy

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
International Market ◽  
Domestic Demand ◽  
Energy Prices ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Oil Companies ◽  
National Oil Companies ◽  
Financial Pressure ◽  
Difficult Time

Subject Effect of low oil prices on China. Significance China is the world's second-largest oil user and imports nearly 60% of its annual requirements. If oil prices remain below 50 dollars per barrel, China's import bill for crude oil will fall by tens of billions of dollars in 2015, while the national oil companies (NOCs) face a difficult time as their profits from oil production are squeezed. However, the consequences are not straightforward due to the government's role in setting energy prices and the mix of commercial and state objectives of the NOCs. Impacts Financial pressure on China's NOCs will not be as great as on their international counterparts. The NOCs are likely to embark on a spree of buying overseas oil and gas assets. With contracted gas supplies exceeding domestic demand, Chinese LNG importers will sell surplus on the international market.

Euro-area potential GDP will stay on low trajectory

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Euro Area ◽  
Productive Capacity ◽  
Potential Growth ◽  
Average Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Permanent Loss ◽  
Potential Gdp ◽  
The Impact

Subject Declining potential growth trends. Significance Although the euro-area is enjoying stronger growth this year, the rebound has been modest. Real GDP growth should average 1.5-1.7% in 2015, disappointing hopes for growth closer to 2.0%. This is adding to concern about the impact of persistent investment weakness, which curbs potential growth. Over 2010-14, the US economy grew by 2.2% on average, the same as during the five years preceding the financial crisis (2004-08), although both periods are mediocre compared to the long-run average of 3.0% for the 15 years prior to 2009. The euro-area's double-dip recession depressed its 2010-14 average growth to 0.7% compared with a rate of 2.2% for both 2004-08 and the 15 years prior to 2009. Impacts Chronic lack of job opportunities can lead to a permanent loss in productive capacity, damaging consumer confidence and spending. Policymakers will need to promote investment and job creation, lowering the cost of capital and reforming labour markets. These reforms could stir political instability by fuelling social resentment and political populism.

Mexican fiscal consolidation steady despite oil price

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Fiscal Consolidation ◽  
Significant Drop ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government

Subject The outlook for fiscal consolidation. Significance The significant drop in oil prices should not derail the fiscal consolidation trajectory mapped by President Enrique Pena Nieto's administration, which envisages that the debt/GDP ratio should stabilise by 2017. The fiscal hole opened by reduced oil prices has been compensated with greater taxation income and one-off revenues. Impacts Defying expectations, the oil price plunge did not push the government into an overtly contractionary fiscal correction. An arguably much-needed simplification of the cumbersome taxation regime will not take place due to the government's pledge not to alter it. Loose monetary policy from the autonomous central bank has worked in tandem with the government's fiscal stance.

Costa Rica gridlock to compound Solis's unpopularity

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Costa Rica ◽  
Economic Performance ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Fiscal Reform ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Face ◽  
Opposition Control

Subject Outlook for the Solis administration during the second half of its term. Significance President Luis Guillermo Solis is currently Latin America's least popular president, due largely to his perceived inability to legislate in the face of opposition obstruction. While economic performance has shown signs of strengthening over the course of this year, this has done little for the government's standing. Impacts Opposition control of key positions in the legislature will exacerbate government challenges. Uncertainty about fiscal reform will weigh heavily on the growth outlook. Low international oil prices will continue to act as a deflationary driver.

Switzerland is facing growth decline in 2019

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Performance ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Trade Surplus ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Third ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Growth Decline ◽  
The One ◽  
Trade And Investment

Subject Switzerland economic performance. Significance Swiss GDP growth flourished over the one-and-a-half-year period through mid-2018, despite increased uncertainty and manufacturing slowdown in both Europe and Asia. Growth has been boosted by net trade and investment. Such strong momentum was interrupted in the third quarter, when real GDP contracted by 0.2% quarter-on-quarter. Meanwhile, other European countries, such as Germany and Italy, experienced a downturn. Impacts The trade surplus peaked in 2013 at 12.1% of GDP and should fall to 7.0% in 2022, as the franc strengthens. Inflation will average 0.9% in 2018 and 0.7% in 2019, as the economy slows and the oil price is down. If Brexit happens, Switzerland and the United Kingdom will have to sign a new trade deal.

The impact of Iran Central Bank’s sanction on Tehran Stock Exchange

2017 ◽  
Vol 59 (3) ◽  
pp. 365-375 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mahdi Salehi ◽  
Mostafa Karimzadeh ◽  
Navid Paydarmanesh
Keyword(s):  
Central Bank ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Positive Effect

Purpose US sanctions have been a major feature of US Iran policy since Iran’s 1979 Islamic revolution, but the imposition of UN and worldwide bilateral sanctions on Iran that began in 2006 and increased dramatically as of 2010 is recent by comparison. The objectives of US sanctions have evolved over time. Broad international sanctions imposed on Iran harmed Iran’s economy and contributed to Iran’s acceptance of agreements that exchange constraints on its nuclear program for sanctions relief. The subject of this study is important because both Iran and the international communities are demanding for information about the effect of sanctions on Iran. In an international and regional perspective, it seems that sanctions have a negative impact on economic, social and even political status of Iran. Therefore, this paper aims to examine the impact of Iran Central Bank sanction on Tehran Stock Exchange as on December 31, 2011. Design/methodology/approach Variables of model are consisted by exchange rate, oil prices and Tehran Stock Exchange Price Index (TEPIX) from October 2, 2011 to March 29, 2012, which is offered daily. To analyze the model, the authors used Johansen–Juselius and Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) methods. Findings The results indicate that there is a long-run equilibrium relationship between selected variables as oil prices, and exchange rates have a positive effect on the TEPIX. In other words, the results of the econometric estimation show the positive effect of the Iran Central Bank sanction on the TEPIX. Thus, because of economic sanctions imposed by the Western countries, Tehran Stock Exchange has been growing. Originality/value No empirical research exists that examines the impact of sanctions on stock price in developing countries. This study fills this gap by examining the links between sanctions and stock price in Iran.

Russia and oil have mixed impact in Caucasus

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Performance ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
External Factors ◽  
The South ◽  
South Caucasus ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Impact

Subject Economic turmoil in the South Caucasus. Significance Economic performance has been affected by two major external factors: turmoil in Russia, which remains a significant economic partner, and declining oil prices. While lower imported fuel bills are positive for Armenia and Georgia, there are second-round negative implications, through the impact on economic activity in Russia. Impacts Lower oil prices will lead to some cuts on infrastructure spending in Azerbaijan but these will be limited. Armenia will suffer the most from the Russian turmoil, but the positive impact of domestic factors will prevail in 2015. Georgia's more diversified economic links make it more resilient to Russian shocks.

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