Low oil prices put pressure on China's energy policy

Subject Effect of low oil prices on China. Significance China is the world's second-largest oil user and imports nearly 60% of its annual requirements. If oil prices remain below 50 dollars per barrel, China's import bill for crude oil will fall by tens of billions of dollars in 2015, while the national oil companies (NOCs) face a difficult time as their profits from oil production are squeezed. However, the consequences are not straightforward due to the government's role in setting energy prices and the mix of commercial and state objectives of the NOCs. Impacts Financial pressure on China's NOCs will not be as great as on their international counterparts. The NOCs are likely to embark on a spree of buying overseas oil and gas assets. With contracted gas supplies exceeding domestic demand, Chinese LNG importers will sell surplus on the international market.

Author(s):  
Ugwushi Bellema Ihua ◽  
Olatunde Abiodun Olabowale ◽  
Kamdi Nnanna Eloji ◽  
Chris Ajayi

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to investigate the efficacy of Nigeria's oil and gas industry local content (LC) policy, with particular reference to how the policy has enhanced entrepreneurial activities and served as panacea to resolving some of the country's socio‐economic challenges within the oil‐producing Niger Delta region.Design/methodology/approachSurvey data were randomly obtained from a questionnaire sample of 120 indigenes in Bayelsa, Delta and Rivers states; and subjected to factor‐analysis using varimax rotation to identify the most crucial factors likely to influence the success of the policy. Cronbach's α was also applied to ascertain the reliability of the data and overall agreement amongst respondents.FindingsThe study reveals a general level of indifference amongst the respondents, and an insignificant level of entrepreneurial implication, regarding the LC policy. Notwithstanding, the need to create business prospects, jobs opportunities, and establish special quota arrangements to benefit indigenes of the oil producing host‐communities were found to be most crucial in their assessment of the policy's efficacy.Practical implicationsIt is expected that the policy should stimulate and open up more channels for budding entrepreneurial activities, job opportunities and wealth generation. These would mitigate situations of unwarranted militant activities, social disorder and disguised criminalities such as kidnapping and destruction of oil installations, resulting from perceived marginalisation, massive unemployment and poor living standards experienced within the region.Originality/valueThe study provides insights into how the LC policy, if properly harnessed and judiciously implemented, can generate win‐win outcomes for the nation, multi‐national oil companies, host communities and indigenous entrepreneurs.


Significance However, years of delays, regulatory uncertainty and a lack of political will -- compounded more recently by depressed global oil prices and the global slowdown caused by COVID-19 -- have seen many projects stall. Impacts Marginal projects may suffer as oil companies assess their investment strategies amid depressed oil prices and a global economic slowdown. The complexity of doing business may prove a serious impediment to finalising long-term investments, especially under Magufuli. Sustained delays in developing extractives projects are likely to feature heavily in opposition election campaign talking points.


Significance The oil sector managed a slight rise in oil production in 2020, despite the challenges of the pandemic and low oil prices. The KRG mostly managed to keep up payments to oil companies but did not assist Baghdad in making production cuts under the OPEC+ agreement. Impacts Combined new gas projects could meet domestic needs and potentially allow exports by the later 2020s. The government could resume payments of overdue amounts to international oil companies from this month. Talks with Baghdad will become more complex around planned elections in October 2021 and depending on legal developments with Turkey.


Subject Prospects for consolidation in the oil and gas industry. Significance Falling revenues and downward reserve valuations caused by the fall in oil prices are producing merger and acquisition (M&A) opportunities in the oil and gas sector. However, uncertainty about how long oil prices will stay low is keeping bids and offers apart, amid quandaries over which forms of oil and gas production will prove most profitable once prices revive. Impacts Post-bankruptcy restructured companies may be primary targets, given acquirers' unwillingness to take on elevated levels of debt themselves. Mid-cap companies with serviceable debt loads will gain from increased scale; cost reduction capacity will be a source of value. Shale cost reductions suggest that technology and assets in the shale patch will remain attractive to more conventional oil companies. Values of long lead-time projects, such as conventional oil assets in Africa, will suffer. There is substantial firepower available to private equity buyers who are holding out for lower prices prompted by distressed sellers.


Subject International Oil Companies' divestment in West Africa Significance Royal Dutch Shell is selling its onshore oil and gas operations in Gabon to Assala Energy, a Carlyle Group company, for 587 million dollars. The deal is expected to close later this year and is part of Shell's global 30-billion-dollar divestment to concentrate on its most profitable operations. Other International Oil Companies (IOCs) have been divesting from onshore operations in West Africa since 2010, especially in Nigeria's conflict-prone Niger Delta region. Consequently, indigenous independents (such Seplat, Shoreline Natural Resources and Eroton) and National Oil Companies (NOCs) from developing countries (such as CNPC, Sinopec, Petrobras and Sonangol) are playing an increasing role in sub-Saharan Africa's oil and gas markets. Impacts IOCs will face increasing competition from independents and NOCs for resources, especially in the mature markets of West Africa. The growing role of indigenous independent IOCs will likely benefit African producer states seeking to expand their oil and gas operations. Energy markets in West Africa will mirror wider shifts regionally.


Subject Increased African offshore exploration Significance Offshore West and Southern Africa is seeing a revival of exploration interest as the upstream oil and gas industry recovers following the 2014 oil price crash. Oil majors such as ExxonMobil and BP have snapped up acreage, while firms that already have a footprint in the region are expanding and announcing new drilling plans. The upsurge in activity will bring a short-term economic boost to the countries concerned but -- as with past waves of exploration -- public expectations of imminent windfalls will have to be carefully managed. Impacts Ports and service companies supporting exploration will see an upturn in activity. Pressure will grow on national oil companies and government bodies to improve expertise and infrastructure for future discoveries. Existing licence-holders will face pressure from regional governments to quickly pursue exploration or risk being replaced.


2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 523-551 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sani Damamisau Mohammed

Purpose Carbon emissions from gas flaring in the Nigerian oil and gas industry are both a national and international problem. Nigerian government policies to eliminate the problem 1960-2016 yielded little or no results. The Kyoto Protocol (KP) provides Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) as an international market-based mechanism to reducing global carbon emissions. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to analytically highlight the potentials of CDM in eliminating carbon emissions in the Nigerian oil and gas industry. Design/methodology/approach This paper reviewed the historical background of Kyoto protocol, Nigerian Government policies to eliminating gas flaring in its oil and gas industry 1960-2016 and CDM projects in the industry. The effectiveness of the policies and CDM projects towards ending this problem were descriptively analysed. Findings Government policies towards eliminating gas flaring with its attendant carbon emissions appeared not to be yielding the desired results. However, projects registered under CDM in the industry looks effective in ending the problem. Research limitations/implications Therefore, the success recorded by CDM projects has the policy implication of encouraging Nigeria to engage on establishing more CDM projects that ostensibly proved effective in reducing CO2 emissions through gas flaring reductions in its oil and gas industry. Apparent effectiveness of studied CDM should provide a way forward for the country in eliminating gas flaring in its oil and gas industry which is also a global menace. Nigeria could achieve this by providing all needed facilitation to realising more CDM investments. Practical implications CDM as a policy has proved effective in eliminating gas flaring in the Nigerian oil and gas industry. The government should adopt this international policy to achieve more gas flaring reductions. Social implications Social problems of respiratory diseases, water pollution and food shortage among others due to gas flaring are persisting in oil and gas producing areas as government policies failed to end the problem. CDM projects in the industry have proved effective in eliminating the problem, thus improving the social welfare of the people and ensuring sustainable development. Originality/value The paper analysed the effectiveness of Nigerian Government policies and an international market-based mechanism towards ending gas flaring in its oil and gas industry.


2020 ◽  
Vol 14 (5) ◽  
pp. 975-1000
Author(s):  
Mukhtar A. Kassem ◽  
Muhamad Azry Khoiry ◽  
Noraini Hamzah

Purpose Project failure is the result of one or a combination of several causes of risk factors that are very important to identify for effective performance. This study aims to focus on studying the fundamental relationship between internal risk factors and the negative effect on oil and gas project success in Yemen using the partial least square structural equation modelling (PLS-SEM) method. Design/methodology/approach Data collection was carried out using a formal questionnaire survey of the oil field sector in Yemen by companies involved in mega-oil and gas construction projects. A hierarchical model for determining causative internal risk factors and their effects was developed and evaluated using SEM method by SmartPLS3 software technology. Findings The findings of analyzing model indicate that all categories have a significant effect on project success, while the most significant affected categories in the internal risk factors are project management factors, feasibility study-design and resources-material supply with a path coefficient value of 0.213, 0.197 and 0.186, respectively. Moreover, for the hypotheses test, the positive relationship means that all experimental hypotheses are accepted according to path coefficient value analysis. In addition, the internal risk factors research model shows the ranking of effects on project success starting with project stoppage (loading factor 0.841), cost overruns (loading factor 0.818), time overruns (loading factor 0.726) and project target failure with loading factor 0.539. Research limitations/implications The research was limited to the oil and gas construction projects in Yemen. Practical implications Interpreting the relationship between internal risk factors and their impact on the success of construction projects in the oil and gas sector will assist project team and oil companies in developing risk response strategies and developing appropriate plans to mitigate the effects of risks, which is presented in this paper. Originality/value The paper explains the relationship between cause and effect of internal risk factors in oil and gas projects in Yemen, and is expected to be a guideline for the oil companies and future academic research in the risk management area.


Significance Risks to its central scenario are more balanced and less skewed to the downside. Global imbalances are shrinking, partly thanks to low oil prices. This is boosting disposable income in oil-importing countries at the expense of oil-exporting ones. The dollar's strength is also helping rebalance the global economy, although the euro-area's growing current account surplus is contentious. Impacts Disinflation has become widespread, especially within advanced economies, but should be temporary. Low energy prices are estimated to add between 0.5-1.0 percentage points to global growth by 2016. A revision of guidelines and rules is required to reduce the risk of another financial crisis.


Subject Mexico's massive untapped shale oil and gas reserves. Significance Mexico has enough 'tight oil' and gas reserves to make the country energy independent again, according to some estimates. However, finding and developing those reserves will be a long, costly and high-risk endeavour. Unfortunately for Mexico's energy policymakers, the oil price crash has sapped the industry's appetite and ability to take on the challenge. It will be years before Mexico's shale industry regains the momentum that had started to build before the oil industry downturn. Impacts Mexico will grow increasingly reliant on US natural gas imports, providing opportunities for pipeline and other infrastructure builders. Shale development could bring economic development to some of Mexico's poorest regions. A growing crop of domestic oil companies stands to gain from tight oil production.


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