Brexit will alter European security cooperation

Significance At the same time, the EU will lose the United Kingdom’s vital role in coordinating intelligence and leading investigations. In addition, Brexit undermines the prospects for EU-UK security and defence cooperation based on institutionalised relations. Impacts Now that the politics of Brexit is less intense, the EU and United Kingdom have more capacity to focus on building pragmatic relations. The main EU nations will only join inter-governmental arrangements with London if such cooperation aligns with EU objectives. Regulatory and trade pressures could see European defence companies, such as Airbus, more reluctant to invest in the United Kingdom.

Subject Brexit and international security. Significance Brexit in any form will make defence and security cooperation between the United Kingdom and the EU more difficult. While intelligence-sharing and security cooperation are likely to continue, even if in a more cumbersome form, there is a high likelihood of declining defence cooperation and a divergence of UK and EU defence efforts. Impacts Brexit will force EU member states to build up their military. The United Kingdom and Ireland will strengthen security cooperation over fears of a return to violence in Northern Ireland. The United Kingdom may be excluded from security arrangements between the EU and external actors such as China and the United States.


Subject Post-Brexit defence policy. Significance Much of the discussion surrounding the impact of Brexit on defence and security has focused on its effects on the EU. However, with the EU’s recent defence initiatives and London’s lack of a clear position on the future of EU-UK security cooperation, the United Kingdom could face greater risks than the EU. Impacts UK-EU security and defence cooperation will probably remain largely unchanged until the transition period ends in December 2020. EU defence cooperation will continue to develop, regardless of input from the United Kingdom. Uncertainty over Brexit negotiations will make London more reluctant to take on leadership roles in joint EU projects. The United States, France, Germany, Japan and Australia are likely to be London’s main countries of focus for strengthening defence ties.


Subject The Bratislava summit. Significance Leaders of the EU-27 -- all EU member states except the United Kingdom -- held an 'informal' summit in Bratislava on September 16, aiming to demonstrate their shared resolve to move forward with the integration process in the wake of the Brexit vote. While leaders agreed to a roadmap of policy plans, they skirted around the most divisive issues facing the EU and did not agree on any significant new initiatives. Impacts EU governments again failed to agree to a workable plan to address the migrant crisis, rendering an EU-wide solution increasingly unlikely. Significant agreements on improved security cooperation may not be reached until well into 2017. The EU is likely to block any UK efforts to maintain its current access to the single market without allowing for free movement of workers.


2018 ◽  
Vol 20 (4) ◽  
pp. 846-863 ◽  
Author(s):  
Benjamin Martill ◽  
Monika Sus

The purpose of this article is to understand the EU/UK security relationship after Brexit and the institutional form(s) it may take. Taking stock of the literature on the consequences of Brexit for European foreign affairs, this article employs a question-driven approach to examine uncertainties regarding the future EU/UK security relationship. These questions relate in particular to the United Kingdom’s commitment to European security after Brexit, the nature of post-Brexit developments within the Union, and the European Union’s willingness to afford the United Kingdom a substantial role after withdrawal. This article examines each of these questions in turn, before considering the viability of three frequently mooted institutional arrangements post-Brexit: UK participation in the CSDP as a third country; increased engagement with NATO that becomes the main platform for cooperation between the United Kingdom and the European Union; and the enhancement of bilateral ties between the United Kingdom and key European allies – especially France.


Significance The United Kingdom eyes a strategic tilt to the Indo-Pacific, with South-east Asia a key focus because of its economic dynamism and the convening power of ASEAN. The aircraft carrier HMS Queen Elizabeth will deploy to the Indo-Pacific for six months later this year. Impacts The United Kingdom’s view of China as a systemic challenger makes a trade pact between the two countries unlikely. UK efforts to conclude a trade deal with India will be frustrated by Delhi’s protectionist approach. London will pursue closer defence cooperation with Tokyo.


Subject Prospects for Europe in the third quarter. Significance For the rest of June and the third quarter, the EU will grapple with the future positions within the bloc of two member states, the United Kingdom and Greece. The period will see the resolution, one way or another, of the immediate crisis in Greece's relations with its international creditors. The way in which this takes place will have profound implications for the future of the single currency.


Subject The package of reforms on a new EU-UK relationship. Significance The agreement between the United Kingdom and its EU partners sets the stage for the UK referendum on EU membership, which Prime Minister David Cameron has set for June 23. Cameron said he had negotiated new terms that would allow the United Kingdom to remain in the EU. Impacts The deal bolsters the campaign to remain in the EU, but the referendum outcome is still highly uncertain. The deal will only come into effect if the outcome is for remaining, forestalling a second referendum for better terms. If the outcome is for leaving, a new relationship with the EU would have to be negotiated during a two-year transition period. It would also probably lead to a second Scottish independence referendum and UK break-up.


Subject The United Kingdom's WTO status after Brexit. Significance The terms of the United Kingdom's WTO membership are linked to those of the EU. In order to continue benefiting from other members' concessions after Brexit, the United Kingdom will need to arrange its own membership and terms in a potentially lengthy and complicated negotiation process with all other WTO members. Impacts Upon Brexit, the United Kingdom will regain its full competence for concluding bilateral and regional trade agreements. The government's slow progress in recruiting experienced UK trade negotiators may put it at a disadvantage. Poor understanding of the complexity of WTO negotiations may mean that economic losses have been underestimated.


Significance This followed a landmark speech on January 17 in which she added more clarity and detail to her previous stance on the United Kingdom’s departure from the EU. May indicated a willingness to leave the single market, strongly implied that the United Kingdom would not be part of the customs union in its current form and asserted that she would rather quit the EU with no permanent or transitional deal agreed than accept an arrangement which limited the United Kingdom’s future freedom of action. Impacts The government is likely to meet its preferred timetable for triggering Article 50 even if it has to obtain approval from parliament. The United Kingdom will probably lose its passporting rights, which allow UK-based banks to sell their products across the EEA. Paris and Frankfurt will probably benefit as banks may seek to move some of their staff out of London.


Subject Denmark's defence policy. Significance Denmark's decision to acquire a new fleet of fifth-generation F-35 stealth joint-strike fighter jets to replace its ageing and non-stealthy fourth-generation F-16s ends a long period of uncertainty around the future of the Danish air force. The purchase of the F-35s will also solidify and deepen Denmark's political-military links to the United States and could open the door for increased cooperation with other northern European countries operating F-35s such as the United Kingdom, the Netherlands and Norway. Impacts The decision will increase the chances of Finland also selecting the F-35 in its upcoming competition to replace its current fleet of F-18s. Participation in future out-of-area operations may be limited, owing to the need to increase the share of the procurement budget. The deal will help solidify Denmark's orientation towards NATO and Washington and away from defence cooperation under the EU.


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