Judiciary will be key force in Nepali politics

Significance Earlier this month, it nullified the ruling Nepal Communist Party (NCP), which had split into pro- and anti-Oli blocs in the wake of the premier’s controversial move. Parliament has resumed, but it is unclear whether Oli retains the support of a majority of MPs. Impacts Protracted political instability will make it harder for Nepal to attracted much-needed foreign investment. Supporters of rival parties will increasingly take to the streets to show their allegiances. India and China, which vie for influence over Nepal, will ensure they maintain good ties with all major players in the country’s politics.

Subject Chinese and Indian interest in Nepal. Significance China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is dominating Nepal’s agenda. Until a decade ago, Nepal was clearly within India’s sphere of influence. Nepali Prime Minister KP Oli in April made a three-day state visit to Delhi and in June made a six-day state visit to Beijing. Impacts The governing Nepal Communist Party will be at risk of a split, especially during negotiations over a new chair in two years’ time. Campaigning in nearby Bhutan’s elections later this year is likely to be dominated by debate over the country's ties with India and China. India and China may seek mutual easing of trade barriers as part of efforts to improve bilateral economic ties.


Subject The former ruling party’s defeat in local elections. Significance Macedonia’s ruling Social Democrats (SDSM) inflicted a crushing defeat on their erstwhile rival, the Internal Macedonian Revolutionary Organisation-Democratic Party for Macedonian National Unity (VMRO-DPMNE), in last month’s local elections. Both parties in effect exchanged positions, the SDSM winning 57 municipalities and VMRO five, compared with four and 56 respectively in the previous election in 2013. VMRO suffered its greatest electoral defeat since its creation in 1990. Impacts Gruevski’s conclusive demise makes Macedonia unambiguously pro-Western and changes the geopolitics of the region. Zaev’s rows with Serbia, which briefly closed its embassy in Skopje in August 2017, probably will not have long-term significance. With the end of two years of political instability, Macedonia would become more attractive to foreign investment, especially Chinese.


Significance The PUK and KDP are the two ruling parties and historic rivals in the semi-autonomous Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI). They manage competing political and security structures. The PUK generally has better relations than the KDP with Iranian-backed Shia groupings in Baghdad, making it an important ally for Tehran. However, it is also internally fragmented. Some members split off in 2009 to form a third party, Gorran (Change), and intra-PUK divisions have deepened further in 2016. Impacts PUK factionalism will erode decision-making structures, especially in the party's stronghold of Suleimaniya. Political instability could create new barriers to foreign investment. Strengthening of the KDP at the expense of the PUK would facilitate a larger US military footprint in the KRI. Iran would seek to lobby Gorran and any new PUK splinter group to promote its interests.


Subject Outcomes and outlook, following Vietnam's communist party congress. Significance Vietnamese party officials and state officers met yesterday to prepare working plans for 2016. This follows the Communist Party of Vietnam (CPV) concluding its twelfth five-yearly party congress on January 28, which decided the party's new leadership for the next five years. With party and state closely linked, these new personnel will also assume higher government positions from mid-year. Impacts Further economic reforms conducive to foreign investment are likely. Reform of the state-owned sector will probably be slow. Domestic protests may increase, reacting to labour conditions and perceived Chinese provocations.


Significance The 57-year-old heir apparent -- Vice-President Miguel Diaz-Canel -- was born after the 1959 revolution and represents a symbolic generational shift. However, Castro’s continued leadership of the Communist Party should minimise the uncertainty of leadership change and maintain a level of political continuity. Regime stalwarts have blocked Castro’s once ambitious reform agenda, leaving his successor little room for manoeuvre. Impacts Increased foreign investment is unlikely to compensate for the stagnating economy and the restrictions on private business. The economic downturn will increasingly generate social tensions and pressure for reform. Tougher US migration restrictions remove a pressure valve for social discontent in Cuba, exacerbating the risk that tensions will build.


Subject Nepal's deliberations on key policy issues. Significance The ruling Nepal Communist Party (NCP) is divided over a slated 500-million-dollar investment by the Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC), a US aid agency. Some in the party fear the investment will compromise national sovereignty. Meanwhile, Nepal’s giant neighbours India and China continue to vie for influence over the landlocked Himalayan state. Impacts Nepal will further improve its transport and power connections with India and China. Kathmandu will try to pursue balanced diplomacy between Beijing and Delhi. Tensions within rival factions of the NCP are unlikely to ease.


Significance Although President Cyril Ramaphosa has publicly committed to increase funding to combat what he calls South Africa’s “second pandemic”, there is a lack of transparency in how the government disburses funds linked to its National Strategic Plan (NSP) on Gender-based Violence and Femicide. Impacts Civil society groups will increase pressure on the government to make expenditure on GBV programmes more transparent. A new private-sector fund to contribute to the NSP has received strong early support, but its management structure is opaque. High levels of GBV will not only have significant humanitarian and social costs but may deter much-needed foreign investment.


2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Van Ha ◽  
Mark J. Holmes ◽  
Gazi Hassan

PurposeThis study focuses on the linkages between foreign direct investment and the research and development (R&D) and innovation activity of domestic enterprises in Vietnam.Design/methodology/approachThe Heckman selection model approach is applied to a panel dataset of nearly 7,000 Vietnamese firms for the 2011–2015 study period to investigate the impact of foreign presence on the R&D of local firms through horizontal and vertical linkages. Probit model estimation is employed to examine how foreign investment influences the innovation activity of local companies.FindingsWhile there are a small number of firms carrying out R&D activities in Vietnam, foreign or joint domestic–foreign venture firms are less inclined than domestic firms to undertake R&D. Domestic factors that include capital, labor quality, location and export status of firm have a significant effect on the decision of domestic firms to participate in R&D activity. Only forward linkages and the gross firm output are found to have an impact on the R&D intensity of domestic enterprises, while other factors appear to have no significant influence on how much firms spend on R&D activities.Practical implicationsIn order to promote the R&D activity of domestic firms, policy should focus on (1) the backward linkages between local firms in downstream sectors with their foreign suppliers in upstream sectors, and (2) the internal factors such as labor, capital or location that affect the decisions made by domestic firms.Originality/valueGiven that foreign investment may affect R&D and innovation activity of local firms in host countries, the impact is relatively unexplored for many emerging economies and not so in the case of Vietnam. The availability of a unique survey on Vietnamese firm technology and competitiveness provides the opportunity to address this gap in the literature.


Significance The closing of internal and external borders in response to COVID-19 has heightened a longstanding skills deficit in key industries, with implications for wage levels, prices and broader economic growth. However, a general increase in immigrant numbers may not provide the skills that are needed. Impacts Labour shortfalls may delay government infrastructure projects that were designed to lead the post-pandemic economic recovery. Foreign investment may be affected by skills shortages in key areas such as mining and metallurgy. Debate on immigration levels could influence voting in the general election that is now likely to be held in April.


Significance A 2018 peace agreement was meant to provide space for economic reform and recovery, but it has failed to deliver this. Moreover, the outlook for improvement remains poor. Impacts Many South Sudanese will remain reliant on international organisations to provide basic services. Corruption and mismanagement will deter foreign investment, including in the oil sector, the main source of government revenue. Despite a formal end to the conflict, persistent insecurity and the risk of further unrest will constrain the recovery.


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