Mexico election results will impede any major reforms

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Gubernatorial Elections ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Absolute Majority ◽  
Lower House ◽  
Electoral Laws ◽  
Election Results

Significance President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO)'s ruling National Regeneration Movement (Morena) succeeded, with its allies, in retaining a majority of seats in the lower house of Congress. It nevertheless lost the two-thirds majority it held previously. Morena appears to have won eleven of 15 gubernatorial elections, meaning it will govern half of Mexico’s states. Impacts As counting ends and appeals are addressed, some results will change, but this will not undermine the elections’ legitimacy. Morena will continue criticising the election body but will struggle to alter electoral laws in ways that could undermine its independence. Morena and its allies will easily pass the 2022 budget, which requires only an absolute majority of congressional votes.

Path to Scottish independence will be difficult

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Northern Ireland ◽  
Green Party ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Absolute Majority ◽  
Successful Vaccine ◽  
Economic Support ◽  
Election Results ◽  
Scottish Independence ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Roll Out

Significance Having fallen one seat short of an absolute majority, the SNP will form a government with the Green Party, which also supports independence. After the election results, SNP leader and Scotland’s First Minister Nicola Sturgeon said it is only “a matter of time” before Scotland holds another referendum on independence. Impacts The UK government’s rejection of a second referendum risks fuelling support for Scottish independence. London's successful vaccine roll-out and economic support is unlikely significantly to shift support vis-a-vis Scottish independence. A referendum victory in favour of Scottish independence would likely undermine support for the Union in Wales and Northern Ireland.

Cristina return may be ill-timed for Argentina's Macri

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Public Opinion ◽  
Buenos Aires ◽  
Buenos Aires Province ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Patron Saint ◽  
Lower House ◽  
Election Results

Significance The planned protests, on the day of San Cayetano, the patron saint of employment, would have taken place just before the August 13 simultaneous open primaries (PASO) to choose candidates for the October mid-term elections, in which one-third of the Senate and half the Lower House will be up for election. Pro-Kirchner unions held rallies on Independence Day (July 9) last year which turned violent, prompting a backlash in public opinion which Fernandez de Kirchner wishes to avoid in advance of the PASO. Impacts Buenos Aires province will likely have no Peronist senator from December. PASO voter numbers for each party will be an indicator of election results. Peronist presidential hopefuls will step up opposition to Macri’s agenda.

Traditional loyalties may crumble in Mexico in 2018

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Election ◽  
The State ◽  
Gubernatorial Elections ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Preliminary Results ◽  
Institutional Revolutionary Party ◽  
Revolutionary Party ◽  
Democratic Revolution ◽  
Election Results ◽  
Leftist Party

Subject The June 5 state election results. Significance According to preliminary results, President Enrique Pena Nieto's ruling Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) won only five of the twelve state gubernatorial elections held on June 5. In contrast, the conservative opposition National Action Party (PAN) won seven -- four on its own and three in coalition with the leftist Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD), which did not obtain a single governorship by itself. The radical, leftist National Regeneration Movement (Morena) performed particularly well in Veracruz and Zacatecas, where it won between one-quarter and one-third of the vote, although it did not win any governorships. Impacts Alliances of ideological opposites PAN and PRD are electorally effective and may see them win the State of Mexico in 2017. Nevertheless, the PAN will have little incentive to join forces with a weak PRD for the presidential election in 2018. While Morena did not win any governorship, leader Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador is now well positioned ahead of 2018.

PM's death will prompt new Ivorian succession struggle

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Election Results ◽  
Legislative Election ◽  
Economic Inequalities

Significance His death was announced a day after the March 6 legislative election results showed the ruling Rally of Houphouetists for Democracy and Peace (RHDP) secured 137 out of 254 contested seats. Bakayoko’s death has opened up a race to succeed President Alassane Ouattara at the end of his third and final term in 2025. Impacts Ouattara will likely hand-pick his successor again and seek to spearhead the RHDP’s 2025 campaign. An emboldened opposition will seek to exploit the government’s failure to stem widening economic inequalities. A new prime minister will struggle to create jobs and alleviate poverty to stem public anger and boost his popularity.

Tensions between tiers of Bolivian government may grow

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
National Level ◽  
Far Right ◽  
La Paz ◽  
Gubernatorial Elections ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Modus Vivendi ◽  
El Alto ◽  
The Government

Significance The MAS’s national-level appeal tends not to translate into support in localised elections, and a poor choice of candidates, particularly in El Alto, has proved self-defeating. Impacts Second-round gubernatorial elections will probably take place in six out of nine departments. Camacho, a far-right businessman turned politician, will use his newly gained legitimacy to harry the government. The Arce government will seek a modus vivendi with opposition mayors such as those of La Paz and Cochabamba.

Gambian election results herald democratic backsliding

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Content Type ◽  
Election Results

Headline GAMBIA: Election results herald democratic backsliding

Italy’s elections threaten the cohesion of the right

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Policy Framework ◽  
National Unity ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Election Result ◽  
Dominant Party ◽  
Strong Position ◽  
Business Confidence ◽  
Election Results ◽  
The Stability ◽  
The Right

Significance The results have destabilised relations within the alliance involving the League, Brothers of Italy (FdI) and Forza Italia (FI), and increased speculation that FI may ally with moderate parties instead. The election results reflect the popularity of Prime Minister Mario Draghi’s government of national unity. Impacts The stability of Draghi’s government may boost Italy’s chances of influencing reforms to the EU’s fiscal policy framework. The election result reflects the wider recovery in business confidence already evidenced in Italy. Based on polling trends, Giorgia Meloni’s FdI is in a strong position to be the leading populist party after the next election. Meloni’s rise could increase tensions between FdI and the League, as the latter is accustomed to being the dominant party in the polls.

Moldova reforms now possible due to absolute majority

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
European Integration ◽  
Positive Relationship ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
Socialist Party ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Reform Agenda ◽  
Counter Measures ◽  
Absolute Majority

Significance This removes formal impediments to a reform agenda focused primarily on the judiciary and corruption. Despite contesting the elections in coalition with the Communists, the pro-Russian Socialist Party has been badly defeated. Impacts Moldova is set for four years of political stability, barring the unexpected, which is common here. Russia will wait, and calibrate its counter-measures according to the pace at which European integration proceeds. One disruptive option for Moscow would be to create instability in Transnistria. EU officials will be delighted at the prospect of an uncomplicated positive relationship with untainted Moldovan leaders.

Political connection and firm value: an Indian perspective

2014 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 170-189 ◽  
Author(s):  
Debabrata Datta ◽  
Santanu K. Ganguli
Keyword(s):  
Corporate Governance ◽  
Theoretical Model ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Empirical Test ◽  
Political Connection ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Election Results ◽  
Political Governance ◽  
Practical Implications

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to verify existence of political connection of firms in India. For this purpose the paper first presents a theoretical model and then tests empirically the movement of stock prices during two state elections in India. Design/methodology/approach – The methodology is theoretical modelling where the paper applies the standard Cournot model of oligopoly. The paper then applies correlation and Wilcoxon Paired Rank Sum test to verify the results of the theoretical model by using data from the Indian stock market during the election results. Findings – The theoretical result states that some firms opt for political connection and some remain independent in an oligopoly. It also shows that political connection affects stock price. The empirical results find out that divergent responses of stock prices to the election results can be linked to politically connection. Research limitations/implications – The theoretical model is a simple two firm model and not generalized to n number of firms. The empirical test considers only two state elections and applies simple statistical test. The study is restricted to one country only. Practical implications – The paper has practical implications for stock market. It has implications for corporate governance and for political governance. This is important since political connection of firms has emerged as an important issue in India. Social implications – The paper is important as it addresses the issue of political connection of firms, which have ramifications for social equilibrium. In a democratic country like India any nexus between political party and firms may adversely affect not only corporate governance but also political governance. Originality/value – This paper looks at political connectedness theoretically in a federal structure, an issue not addressed so far in the literature. Second it considers not so discussed topic of market perception of political connection in India. The originality of the paper is that it presents a theory and also verifies the theoretical results with empirical test.

Sirisena win spells change and challenge for Sri Lanka

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Policy Reform ◽  
The Political ◽  
Potential Game ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Turn On ◽  
Growth Prospects ◽  
Election Results ◽  
Game Changer

Significance Sirisena's victory is a potential game-changer: instead of entrenching the autocratic tendencies of his predecessor Mahinda Rajapaksa's administration, the election results hold out the promise of democratic consolidation under a new government with a robust mandate for constitutional and policy reform. However, the diversity of the coalition backing Sirisena and the sharing of power with newly appointed Prime Minister Ranil Wickremasinghe augur a period of volatility. Impacts If Tamil parties emerge as 'kingmakers' in April, governance of war-torn Northern and Western provinces is likely to be overhauled. Delhi, Washington and Brussels will welcome the political transition. Long-term growth prospects will turn on the precise rebalancing of budgetary allocations.

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