Russia and post-Netanyahu Israel will seek continuity

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Middle East ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Military Presence ◽  
Military Planning

Significance Both countries have worked to mitigate the inherent contradictions and risks of escalation. The Kremlin is seeking more influence in the Middle East, and Israel will have to decide how to accommodate itself to this. Impacts Opaque commentary will help both sides gloss over fundamental differences regarding Israeli air strikes in Syria. Israel can live with Russia's aim of a long-term military presence in Syria. Israel will keep a close eye on Russia's military planning: its upgraded Syrian air base can now host bombers with Mediterranean-wide reach.

French missions abroad will strain army but continue

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Terrorist Attacks ◽  
Planning Law ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Domestic Security ◽  
Defence Budget ◽  
Military Planning ◽  
Foreign Policies ◽  
Arms Exports ◽  
The Military

Subject France's military and police over-stretch. Significance With 34,000 troops engaged in operations, 10,000 of them abroad, France's military forces will be under severe strain in 2016. The police and gendarmerie workload has also increased, after two major terrorist attacks in Paris in 2015 that presented a long-term challenge to domestic security. President Francois Hollande has modified the Military Planning Law to take the new security situation into account and boosted France's military effort. However, influential voices are raising concerns about sustainability and expressing doubts about the relevance of France's international stance and home security approach. Impacts The military top brass is likely to intensify pressure on the executive, to secure more means as the presidential election approaches. More than ever, the defence budget will rely on extra-budgetary resources, such as arms exports, especially of Rafale jet fighters. Defence and foreign policies are thus poised to become even more interconnected, with strong efforts to sell arms to India and the Gulf.

Russian build-up raises geopolitical stakes in Syria

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Middle East ◽  
Peace Process ◽  
The United States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Military Presence ◽  
Gulf States ◽  
Russian Military

Significance US officials estimate that Russia has dispatched tanks and artillery to Syria in recent weeks in a reported military build-up, raising concerns that Moscow is embarking upon an extensive mission to bolster President Bashar al-Assad's embattled regime and establish a substantial Russian military presence in the Middle East. The build-up comes amid an intensive Russian diplomatic drive in Syria. Impacts Recent attempts to revive the UN-backed Geneva peace process will stumble due to the lack of US-Russian and Saudi-Iranian unanimity. Russia will use its influence over Assad as a bargaining chip in its stand-off with the United States and Europe. Hezbollah and Tehran will be emboldened by Moscow's solid backing of the Assad regime. However, this may also complicate Russia's ties with the Gulf states, Turkey and Israel.

Middle East regimes will survive lasting instability

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Middle East ◽  
Civil Wars ◽  
The United States ◽  
Political Systems ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Status ◽  
Near Term ◽  
The Government ◽  
Regime Resilience

Subject Regime resilience in the Middle East. Significance The Middle East's political order has been shaken at the start of the 21st century by the sudden and violent removal of long-standing authoritarian rulers in Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, Iraq and Yemen; mass protests against the government in Tehran; and the collapse of regime authority in large parts of Syria. Far from paving the way to an era of more democratic and stable rule in the Middle East, most countries have instead experienced increasingly dysfunctional governance, reinforced authoritarianism, sectarian tensions, or civil wars. This raises questions about the sustainability of the status quo and the long-term direction of political systems across the region. Impacts Some countries may yet transition to more representative and accountable forms of government over the next ten years (Tunisia, Morocco). Deteriorating economic conditions and escalating proxy conflicts will see volatility rise across the region. The United States will resist pressure to step up its intervention in the region to help restore stability. Political Islam is unlikely to make a serious comeback in the near term, but will be active in Morocco, Tunisia, Bahrain and Kuwait. Regime repression and security force brutality will radicalise political opposition and increase recruitment to jihadist groups.

Middle East jihadist splits will widen despite defeats

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Middle East ◽  
Close Contact ◽  
The Other ◽  
Terrorist Attacks ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Syrian Conflict ◽  
Hostile Attitude

Significance However, even in this extremity, it maintains a hostile attitude to old enemy Islamic State (IS). In Yemen, the other regional country where the two come into close contact, the local al-Qaida branch in its August 28 newsletter also strongly attacked IS, accusing it of fomenting intra-Muslim divisions. Impacts Even those al-Qaida supporters claiming to see a more ‘moderate’ trend in IS only identify a long-term possibility of rapprochement. As the Syrian conflict winds down, IS and HTS may step up competition, as insurgent cells launch terrorist attacks from desert bases. Splits between the different al-Qaida branches could worsen as some seek more pragmatic alliances and others prioritise ideological purity. In Yemen, al-Qaida’s deeper societal roots will give it greater long-term resilience than IS.

Europe-US divergence on Middle East could be long-term

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Middle East ◽  
Middle Eastern ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
International Attention ◽  
Defence Cooperation ◽  
Swift System ◽  
Uk Foreign Policy ◽  
Trump Administration

Subject European and Middle East priorities in the Middle East. Significance The US killing of Iran’s Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani on January 3 focused international attention on continuing tensions between Tehran and Washington and revealed deep and ongoing fractures in the transatlantic alliance. These strains were not caused by Soleimani's death; they stem from fundamental strategic differences on Middle Eastern policy priorities between the transactional Trump administration and a multilaterally oriented Europe. Impacts Trump’s re-election could further divide European from US interests in the Middle East. Europe’s main focus in the Middle East will continue to be security and controlling migration, with less concern for human rights. Future EU-UK foreign policy unity will hinge on safeguarding security and defence cooperation post-Brexit. European efforts to reduce dependence on the dollar as a reserve currency, such as creating an independent SWIFT system, will gain support.

EU must compete with other powers for Balkan influence

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Western Balkans ◽  
Political Leaders ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Military Presence ◽  
Previous Decade ◽  
Near Term ◽  
The Eu ◽  
Made In

Subject EU's rivals in Western Balkans. Significance Despite last year’s Austrian presidency of the Council of the EU, and the current Romanian presidency’s interest in the region, the Western Balkans is still largely ignored by European capitals. This is allowing other actors, specifically Russia, Turkey and China, to gain influence. Waning belief in near-term EU expansion has reduced incentives to continue the progress made in the previous decade. Impacts A Western military presence in the region will continue as a means of ensuring stability in the absence of reforms. Domestic political leaders’ reliability will diminish as short-term considerations supersede long-term goals. Public trust in the EU will continue to fall, though EU accession will remain a popular objective.

Deepening Saudi-Emirati cooperation may be divisive

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Middle East ◽  
United Arab Emirates ◽  
Gulf Cooperation Council ◽  
Strategic Partnership ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Inaugural Meeting ◽  
East Region ◽  
Middle East Region

Subject Saudi-Emirati strategic partnership. Significance The United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Saudi Arabia are accelerating their strategic partnership. On June 6 they held the inaugural meeting of the Saudi-Emirati Coordination Council (SECC), signalling increased assertiveness and a deliberate turning-away from the wider Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). The partnership has become pivotal for the region but has delivered mixed results. Impacts The new SECC will eclipse the troubled GCC as the driver of Gulf policies and may deter US efforts to convene a GCC summit in September. Excluded Kuwait and Oman may look for other regional ties, as they face increasing pressure from the Saudi-Emirati duo. The two countries’coordination against Iran will define long-term alliances in the Middle East region.

Russia seeks mediating but not dominant Libyan role

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Regional Power ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Military Commander ◽  
Military Presence

Significance Moscow is increasingly involved in Libya in support of a dual ambition to be taken seriously as a regional power and an honest intermediary. As Turkey takes sides in the conflict, Moscow will engage with Ankara as it has done in Syria to overcome differences and secure mutually beneficial compromises. The Russian leadership seems less certain about its desired outcomes in Libya: it does not yet have a long-term vision of a future reconciliation and is ambivalent about its main ally, eastern military commander Khalifa Haftar. Impacts Russia will need to pressure Haftar's main backer, the UAE, to make him more cooperative. Russia may use its influence in Egypt and Algeria to seek support for its Libya diplomacy. Moscow may seek to expand its military presence in Egypt if it wants a platform from which to support Haftar.

Allies in Europe face uncertainties despite US funds

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
The United States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Post Cold War ◽  
Military Equipment ◽  
Military Presence ◽  
Eastern Border ◽  
Defence Strategy ◽  
Russian Military ◽  
Military Activity

Significance Russia's conflict in Ukraine along with an overall deterioration in the Western-Russian relationship has forced the United States to rethink its post-Cold War defence strategy for Europe. Having up until recently cut the size of its military presence on the continent, Washington is now bringing back both troops and military equipment at a considerable rate in order to reassure NATO allies while also attempting to deter further Russian military adventurism. Impacts ERI funding enjoys strong bipartisan support and is unlikely to be subject to political meddling. Long-term US commitments to European defence are contingent on European willingness to increase military spending. Concerns about Russian military activity along NATO's eastern border decrease the likelihood of a Western anti-ISG intervention in Libya.

Russia's Syria intervention will empower jihadists

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Middle East ◽  
Terrorist Attacks ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Security Threat ◽  
The West ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Rebel Groups ◽  
Military Presence ◽  
Military Support ◽  
State Group

Significance Russia is primarily attacking the Syrian opposition, forcing rebel groups to rely more heavily on Syrian al-Qaida-affiliated Jabhat al-Nusra (JN) for military support. Meanwhile, Russia is launching relatively few strikes on Islamic State group (ISG), which is emphasising its hostility towards Russia in order to recruit, and to advance militarily. Impacts Russia's escalation will prolong Syria's civil war for several years, thereby promoting further radicalisation. Its continuation will ensure numerous extremist groups, including ISG, retain sanctuary in Syria. Russia will use ISG-linked terrorist attacks in the West to justify its expanded military presence in the Middle East. ISG will likely increase efforts to develop regional affiliates to gain strategic resilience. Russia will increase its leverage internationally, even as it exacerbates the security threat posed by ISG and al-Qaida.

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