Ukrainian leadership buffeted by crises but surviving

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Public Relations ◽  
Conflict Of Interest ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Energy Prices ◽  
Household Energy ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Dividend Payments ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Political Scandals

Significance He failed to say whether there was still a conflict of interest through dividend payments to his family. This adds to Zelensky's public relations problems, which involve chronic challenges relating to the economy, COVID-19, corruption and the conflict in eastern regions. Impacts Former Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev's comment that Ukraine's leaders are not even worth talking to signals a harsher stance. Political scandals will do nothing to improve Ukraine's image abroad but are unlikely to affect strategic relations with Western partners. If Zelensky's personal ratings remain high and stable through the winter months, he may be tempted to call an early presidential election. If household energy prices are kept at present levels, the cost of subsidies will exacerbate budget financing pressures.

Gas prices expose Europe’s energy vulnerability

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Natural Gas ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Liquefied Natural Gas ◽  
Electricity Price ◽  
Energy Prices ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Indigenous Production ◽  
Europe Today ◽  
The Cost

Significance The cost of gas-fired generation sets the electricity price in much of Europe today. Falling indigenous production has left Europe reliant on gas imports and exposed it to global liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices set by fast-recovering China. This has left retail-only electricity suppliers vulnerable and increases the risk that falling disposable incomes will undermine post-pandemic recovery. Impacts EU carbon allowance prices will stay strong. Higher energy prices will stoke inflation amid a fragile recovery, posing a dilemma for central banks. Rising gas prices have had ancillary but potentially alarming impacts as some fertiliser and CO2 producers have shut in production.

Five-party Czech government must compromise on policy

2022 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Energy Prices ◽  
Member States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Eu Integration ◽  
The Government ◽  
Social Uncertainty

Significance The five-party coalition enters office at a time of intense economic and social uncertainty resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic, rising debt and soaring energy prices. Prime Minister Petr Fiala's greatest challenges involve negotiating between the five coalition partners and restoring respectability to Czech politics. Impacts The new government will be less sceptical about closer EU integration, given the upcoming Czech EU presidency from mid-2022. The government will try to reopen EU Green Deal chapters to renegotiate compensation for highly industrialised member states. Former Prime Minister Andrej Babis may run for president in 2023. Babis will strive to avoid losing parliamentary immunity from prosecution relating to the Stork’s Nest affair and alleged EU subsidy fraud.

Malaysia will see more autocratic governance

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Credit Rating ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Content Type ◽  
International Credit ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Cost

Subject Malaysia under Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad. Significance The new Pakatan Harapan (PH) coalition led by Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad has sought to reform drastically the country’s politics. Its focus on tackling corruption has included pursuing former Prime Minister Najib Razak over the 1Malaysia Development Berhad (1MDB) scandal; Najib denies all charges against him. Impacts The government will allow global investigations into 1MDB funds to accelerate. A substantially higher debt-to-GDP ratio (80%), as per new calculations, will increase the cost of future borrowing. Economic confidence-building measures will secure Malaysia’s international credit rating. Contractual penalties may force the government to delay rather than cancel infrastructure deals with Singapore and China.

Spain’s Rajoy may face a leadership challenge by 2020

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Pension System ◽  
Content Type ◽  
One Year ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Popular Party ◽  
Nationalist Parties ◽  
Independence Movements ◽  
Opinion Polls ◽  
The Eu

Subject Prospects for the Spanish government. Significance One year before municipal, regional and European polls and two years before the next general election, parties are already in electoral mode. The liberal Citizens party has consolidated a significant lead in opinion polls while electoral preparations by Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy’s Popular Party (PP) have been set back by a scandal in its Madrid stronghold and its handling of the Catalan crisis. Impacts Approval of the budget would come at the cost of delaying further reform of the pension system. Citizens’ hostility towards nationalist parties could lead to a deeper divide between unionist forces and independence movements. Endorsement of Citizens by France's La Republique En Marche could strengthen its electoral credibility. Electoral successes for Citizens would boost the influence of liberal forces and French President Emmanuel Macron in the EU.

Russia can expect only limited GDP growth

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Policy Making ◽  
Slow Growth ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Fiscal Discipline ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Ukraine Crisis ◽  
Competition For Resources

Significance First-quarter GDP data show that the economy is stabilising after two years of recession. Obstacles to continued growth emerged before either the Ukraine crisis or the fall in global prices, and much of the thinking in policy-making circles is about how to address them. Impacts The austerity regime may be softened later this year to allow spending ahead of the March 2018 presidential election. If fiscal discipline is broadly maintained, military spending in real terms will be held below 2015 levels for at least two years. The key interest rate will follow the rate of inflation down, easing the business community's concern about the cost of finance. Continued slow growth will intensify competition for resources among elite groups, creating possible sources of political instability.

UK government moves to cut energy wastage and bills

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Energy Efficiency ◽  
Energy Demand ◽  
Energy Prices ◽  
Protection Measures ◽  
Household Energy ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Improve Energy Efficiency ◽  
Uk Government ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Uk

Subject UK government energy efficiency initiative Significance The government had previously cooled towards environmental protection measures, but it has now introduced rules that oblige landlords to improve energy efficiency in the rented buildings sector. The initiative comes as household energy bills remain high, despite recent reductions in energy prices, and the political salience of energy affordability has risen. Fuel poverty and the potential of improved energy efficiency to mitigate it are issues across much of the EU. Impacts The government's initiative may encounter implementation difficulties, particularly if the new rules are not given a high public profile. High retail energy prices will keep energy affordability as a politically salient issue, in the UK and EU. The current slump in international oil prices has yet to feed fully into sustained reductions in retail gas and electricity prices. A drop in retail energy prices could blunt the momentum behind policies to improve energy efficiency, and revive energy demand.

Netanyahu win puts Israel on path to isolation

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
The United States ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
Palestinian Authority ◽  
Cost Of Living ◽  
Content Type ◽  
High Turnout ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Nationalist Government

Significance The election, Israel's fourth in less than ten years, was a referendum on Netanyahu, who had faced unprecedented public criticism leading up to the election. However, with a high turnout of 72%, his centre-right Likud defeated other parties by winning 30 out of the Knesset's 120 seats, an increase from 18 seats in the 2013 parliament. The prime minister reportedly called HaBayit HaYehudi (Jewish Home) leader Naftali Bennet and other party heads to discuss forming a new coalition, just minutes after exit polls were announced. He needs the support of 61 Knesset members to form a government. Impacts A nationalist government would expand settlements, deepening tension with the Palestinian Authority (PA), and risking West Bank violence. The PA will likely advance diplomatic efforts to gain recognition as a state and to pressure Israel in international forums. Netanyahu's pledge not to establish a Palestinian state could prompt Washington to support a UNSC resolution on a two-state solution. A right-wing government will heighten tension with the United States and Europe just as nuclear negotiations with Iran reach a conclusion. A right-wing government with the ultra-Orthodox and Kulanu could seek to increase government subsidies while lowering the cost of living.

Reshuffle will not avert France's economic failures

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Election ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Electoral Politics ◽  
Political Orientation ◽  
Socialist Party ◽  
Green Party ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Climate Negotiations ◽  
Party Members

Subject France's new government. Significance President Francois Hollande has kept Prime Minister Manuel Valls and Economy Minister Emmanuel Macron while letting Green party members back into government. The change appears more a matter of electoral politics than substance: it tries to cement a coalition on the left to help Hollande pass the first round of the 2017 presidential election without altering the government's economic or political orientation. Such a tactical manoeuvre is neither likely to allow France to exit its current predicament nor Hollande to recover from his deep unpopularity. Impacts With this reshuffle, Hollande may have consolidated his majority enough for it to hold until the presidential election of April-May 2017. It will certainly guarantee that he will be the only candidate from the executive -- neither Valls nor Macron will stand against him. By sticking with a 'social-liberal' line, Hollande is fostering alternative candidates, both within and without the Socialist Party. Fabius's departure is likely to muffle even more France's voice on the European and international scene, and in global climate negotiations.

Russian protests challenge Kremlin's election strategy

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Young People ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Content Type ◽  
High Profile ◽  
Bomb Attack ◽  
Public Concerns

Significance The March 26 protests in more than 100 cities were led by opposition campaigner and would-be presidential contender Alexey Navalny. Centred on corruption allegations against Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev, the protests expose elite vulnerabilities ahead of next year's presidential election. They also revealed a new vein of anti-government sentiment among young people and in provincial centres. Impacts The April 3 bomb attack in St Petersburg may be used as an argument to curb freedom of assembly further. Putin will hope that high-profile targeted arrests directed from above will be enough to defuse public concerns about corruption. Younger protesters may escape retribution but 'patriotic' initiatives are unlikely to engage them.

Sri Lanka’s new prime minister will be secure

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Sri Lanka ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Parliamentary Election ◽  
Development Projects ◽  
National Party ◽  
National Unity ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Joint Development

Significance This came after Sirisena dissolved the National Unity Government (NUG) that included his Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) and Wickremesinghe’s United National Party (UNP). Sirisena unseated Rajapaksa in the January 2015 presidential election and Rajapaksa’s Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) splintered from the SLFP after the latter joined the NUG following the August 2015 parliamentary election. The SLPP, popular among Sinhalese Buddhist nationalists, wants 2020 parliamentary polls brought forward, for which two-thirds of lawmakers would need to be in favour. Impacts The crisis could derail efforts to promote reconciliation between ethnic Sinhalese and Tamil communities. A sustained Rajapaksa prime ministership would likely see Sri Lanka court more investment from China. Joint development projects involving India are likely to slow further, raising concerns in Delhi.

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