Pecresse can challenge Macron in French election

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Election ◽  
Far Right ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Significant Challenge ◽  
Marine Le Pen ◽  
Council Presidency ◽  
The Right

Significance Pecresse's poll ratings received an immediate boost, to 17%, putting her on a par with far-right politician Marine Le Pen and behind President Emmanuel Macron on 24%. Polls suggests that, if she beats Le Pen in the first round, she would severely challenge or narrowly defeat Macron in the second round. Impacts France’s presidential election will be won and lost on the right; the left stands very little chance of progressing beyond the first round. Macron would likely face a much more significant challenge from Pecresse than the far-right candidates in the second round. To boost his re-election prospects, Macron will pursue a protectionist trade agenda during France’s EU Council Presidency.

Hollande may stand again but right look stronger

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
The Political ◽  
Left Wing ◽  
Far Right ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Landscape ◽  
Marine Le Pen ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Right ◽  
New Generation ◽  
Nicolas Sarkozy

Subject The political outlook after the 'departement' elections. Significance Following the March 2015 'departement' elections, four candidates are emerging as front-runners for the 2017 presidential election in their respective camps. After enjoying a political comeback in recent months and seeing internal Socialist Party (PS) and other left-wing opposition sidelined, President Francois Hollande will now almost certainly be able to run for re-election as the PS candidate. Former Prime Minister Alain Juppe and former President Nicolas Sarkozy are battling for control of the centre-right, divided principally by strategy towards immigration, Islam and the National Front (FN). FN leader Marine Le Pen has emerged from a decisive showdown with her father as an even stronger far-right candidate. The political landscape has shifted to the right. Impacts Having re-established some stability around his presidency, Hollande is now unlikely to risk it by pursuing economic reforms. Hollande could aggravate divisions among the Greens and on the far left by including Green ministers in the government in coming months. As potential presidents, both Juppe and Sarkozy appear willing to engage in substantial structural reform. Jean-Marie Le Pen's final political exit will allow a new generation to take definitive charge of the FN and complete its 'detoxification'.

France’s conservatives face a crucial election vote

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Impact ◽  
Immigration Policy ◽  
Fiscal Rules ◽  
Far Right ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Marine Le Pen

Significance The main frontrunners are the president of the Hauts-de-France region, Xavier Bertrand, Ile-de-France regional head Valerie Pecresse and Michel Barnier, formerly the EU's chief Brexit negotiator. Barnier is the most popular candidate within LR, but Bertrand’s candidacy holds the most appeal when it comes to national support. Impacts Intensifying far-right rivalry is weakening the appeal of National Rally leader Marine Le Pen, to the benefit of Macron. Given the sensitivity of immigration ahead of the election, meaningful reform to EU immigration policy is unlikely before mid-2022. Amid the economic impact of COVID-19 in poorer regions, Macron will be under pressure to push for more flexible EU fiscal rules.

Four disintegration risks may threaten the EU’s future

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Euro Area ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
The Political ◽  
Economic Downturn ◽  
Political Uncertainty ◽  
National Front ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Marine Le Pen ◽  
Decisive Victory ◽  
The Eu

Subject Four European disintegration risks. Significance After the French presidential election, which saw the decisive victory of Emmanuel Macron over National Front leader Marine Le Pen, a sigh of relief could be heard in European capitals: the worse had been avoided; the EU would thrive again. This relief could be premature. At least four disintegration risks are still threatening the EU. Impacts Even though its economic prospects are positive, the euro-area remains fragile and could plunge back into chaos if left unreformed. An economic downturn would benefit Eurosceptic populist parties. The political uncertainty of a caretaker government in Germany will increase its officials' reluctance to agree to any euro-area reforms.

Germany’s CDU looks set for modest shift to the right

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Euro Area ◽  
Far Right ◽  
Political Fragmentation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Christian Democratic Union ◽  
German Politics ◽  
Regional Branch ◽  
Good For ◽  
The Right ◽  
Alternative For Germany

Subject CDU leadership race. Significance On February 8, Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer announced she would resign as leader of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) after the party’s regional branch in Thuringia defied party rules to vote with the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD). Her resignation reopens the question as to whether the CDU continues with Chancellor Angela Merkel's pragmatic course after she steps down, or whether it will take a more conservative direction; it also raises the possibility of a snap election. Impacts Deepening political fragmentation will make it increasingly difficult for the CDU to maintain its policy of not cooperating with the AfD. German politics will become more domestically focused in 2020, thereby slowing progress on issues such as euro-area reform and EU defence. Kramp-Karrenbauer’s leadership was underwhelming, so her resignation may be good for the CDU if a more authoritative leader replaces her.

Growth failure leaves governing French left vulnerable

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Growth Failure ◽  
National Front ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Marine Le Pen ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Right ◽  
Regional Elections ◽  
The Eu

Significance The government's reforms have failed to deliver growth and lower employment as it had hoped. This leaves it poorly placed before December's regional elections and the 2017 presidential poll. Against a background of economic weakness, Europe's migrant crisis is boosting the National Front (FN) and its leader Marine Le Pen. Impacts Sarkozy may beat former Prime Minister Alain Juppe in the main centre-right party primary. Sarkozy may then beat President Francois Hollande in the first presidential round, and Marine Le Pen in the second. Under pressure from the right, the government is unlikely to accept further refugees beyond the proposed EU quota. France's continued economic debility will weaken its voice in the EU, and exacerbate strains with Germany.

Italy's presidential vote carries significant risks

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
Strong Indication ◽  
Far Right ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Reform Agenda ◽  
The Right ◽  
The Eu

Significance One of the front-runners to replace Mattarella is Prime Minister Mario Draghi, who recently gave a strong indication that he intends to run. However, if Draghi is elected president, there does not appear to be an alternative government which could guarantee political stability and make progress on Italy’s crucial reform agenda. Impacts A situation where there is no strong alternative to Draghi’s leadership may boost the electoral appeal of the far-right Brothers of Italy. The return of political instability would diminish Italy’s leverage in the EU regarding important issues such as foreign and fiscal policy. Unless the right-wing parties perform poorly, it is unlikely that Draghi would be elected as prime minister after the next election.

French far-right rivalry favours Macron’s election bid

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Election Campaign ◽  
Illegal Migration ◽  
Political Leaders ◽  
Far Right ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Run Off ◽  
Marine Le Pen ◽  
Media Channels ◽  
Regional Elections

Significance Zemmour has prominence through various media channels and his attacks on established political leaders have already begun. He principally threatens National Rally (NR) leader Marine Le Pen: she has failed to consolidate the far-right vote and her party performed poorly in June’s regional elections. Impacts Zemmour’s candidacy would put pressure on Le Pen to adopt a more hard-right election campaign. A wave of illegal migration or Islamist attack would provide Zemmour with an opportunity to consolidate support. Despite Zemmour’s intention to run for president, a second-round election run-off between Macron and Le Pen is the most likely outcome.

France’s Macron faces important election test

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Election ◽  
Rural Areas ◽  
Fiscal Rules ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Working Classes ◽  
Electoral Strategies ◽  
Marine Le Pen ◽  
Tackle Climate Change ◽  
Regional Elections ◽  
The Eu

Significance Given the proximity to next year’s presidential election, President Emmanuel Macron and his main rival, National Rally (RN) leader Marine Le Pen, view the regional elections as an important opportunity to test electoral strategies and build momentum. Impacts Seeking re-election could force Macron to mute his backing for the EU-China Comprehensive Agreement on Investment (CAI). He will likely use the economic crisis to campaign for more flexible EU fiscal rules and further EU fiscal cooperation. Macron will intensify efforts to tackle climate change, but be careful to not anger the working classes or those living in rural areas.

Portugal is no longer immune from the far right

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Election ◽  
Minority Groups ◽  
Local Elections ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
Far Right ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Third ◽  
The North ◽  
Core Identity ◽  
Popular Party

Significance Andre Ventura, leader of the far-right Chega (Enough) party, finished third in Portugal’s presidential election in January with 12% of the vote. Most polls now suggest that it is the third most popular party in Portugal. Chega’s core identity centres around its anti-establishment views, as well as hostility towards minority groups, in particular the Roma community. Impacts Local elections in October will be a stronger barometer of Chega’s appeal in Portugal than the presidential election. If Chega continues to expand its support, Portugal’s other right-wing parties could adopt some of its views and rhetoric. Chega founder Ventura’s association with Benfica football club could damage his appeal in the north, where arch-rival Porto dominates. Like other far-right parties, Chega could transition from advocating neoliberalism to more popular economic positions over time.

Spanish government should survive its full term

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Open Space ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
Political Uncertainty ◽  
Far Right ◽  
Content Type ◽  
People's Party ◽  
Left And Right ◽  
International Investors ◽  
The Right ◽  
Opinion Polls

Significance However, as opinion polls show that contending left- and right-wing party blocs are closer in terms of voting intentions, the government's performance and ability to collaborate with smaller parties remain key to the left’s ability to return for another term in office. Impacts Tight electoral competition between left and right points to a couple of years of political uncertainty for international investors. In the event of an early election, the most plausible scenario is a coalition of the centre-right People's Party and far-right Vox. The People's Party’s move further to the right could open space for the liberal Ciudadanos party to reclaim centrist support.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document