Survival of Italy’s government rests on Draghi choice

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Pension System ◽  
General Election ◽  
Fiscal Rules ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
Growth Strategies ◽  
Content Type

Significance Plans to invest in key areas such as innovation, digitisation and climate change are already under way, as are plans to reform the pension system. Impacts EU fiscal rules will not return until 2023 at the earliest, enabling Draghi to focus on pro-growth strategies. If Draghi becomes president, finding an alternative government may be difficult as some parties will demand early elections. While the polls have narrowed, a right-wing government remains the most plausible outcome after the next general election.

Maghreb’s water scarcity may foment unrest

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Economic Growth ◽  
Water Supply ◽  
Water Scarcity ◽  
Socioeconomic Inequality ◽  
Rural Populations ◽  
Clean Water ◽  
Growth Strategies ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Economic Output

Subject Maghreb water scarcity. Significance Damage to two main drinking supply channels in the Algerian city of Annaba and other locales in early January threatened the water supply of thousands of people. This is a common problem in the countries of the Maghreb. Impacts Water disruptions widen socioeconomic inequality between rural populations and those on the coasts and in cities with access to clean water. Climate change will negatively affect economic output for Maghreb countries that depend on water-intensive sectors such as agriculture. Economic growth strategies focused on state-owned water-intensive industries will heighten tension between elites and citizens.

Moderation is waning in Italy-EU conflict

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
European Commission ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
Fiscal Rules ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Borrowing Costs ◽  
Deficit Reduction ◽  
Parallel Currency ◽  
Excessive Deficit Procedure ◽  
The Eu

Subject Italy's budget conflict. Significance June 5 marked a resumption in hostilities between Italy and the EU, after the European Commission sent a letter to Rome saying its spending plans were breaking EU fiscal rules. The Commission will now begin the process of implementing an excessive deficit procedure (EDP) against Italy aimed at reducing its deficit and debt. This will likely involve deficit reduction measures that could precipitate the collapse of the populist government. Impacts If an EDP is blocked, efforts to launch it will start again in September if Italy’s budget preview shows Rome not complying with EU rules. An EDP could lead to higher borrowing costs and make it more difficult for Rome to reduce its excessive debt, which is around 132% of GDP. A League-led right-wing government would push for aggressive tax cuts, potentially leaving Italy in the same predicament that it faces now. The implementation of a parallel currency to boost the supply of money would fuel concerns that Italy is prepared to leave the euro-area.

AKP may lack the seats to change Turkish presidency

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
General Election ◽  
Election Campaign ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Justice And Development Party ◽  
Set Up ◽  
The Right

Significance The candidates for the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) are staunch Erdogan loyalists -- or are assumed to be so. Yet this does not mean that the president's position will always be unassailable. Recep Tayyip Erdogan's predominance in Turkey's politics is beginning to look a little shaky, now that some of his senior AKP lieutenants have clashed with each other -- and by implication with him. Erdogan's plans to set up a highly centralised executive presidency are at the centre of the AKP election campaign, but it looks like an uphill struggle to achieve this. The potential for instability has grown. Impacts AKP is still on course to win a handsome majority in the general election, well ahead of its rivals. However, senior politicians disgruntled with Erdogan may make trouble during the campaign. If four parties enter the next parliament, AKP could conceivably be forced into coalition, probably with the right-wing MHP. During the campaign and probably after it, Erdogan's leadership will be less assured than it has been for a decade.

Fractious Greek coalition may last a year

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Public Sector ◽  
Foreign Investment ◽  
General Election ◽  
Coalition Government ◽  
Structural Reforms ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Public ◽  
The Face ◽  
Roll Back

Significance The Coalition of the Radical Left (Syriza) won the early general election on January 25 and formed a coalition government with a nationalist right-wing party, Independent Greeks (ANEL). The coalition will have the support of 162 members in the 300-seat parliament. The principal policies shared by the parties are to roll back the country's massive debt, which is equivalent to 175% of GDP, and to escape the foreign tutelage implied by the two Memoranda of Understanding (MoU) with Greece's creditors, which stipulate rigorous fiscal and structural reforms in exchange for 240 billion euros (272 billion dollars) in soft bailout loans. Impacts In the public sector, leftist supporters will clamour for jobs in the face of a Syriza platform commitment to introduce hirings on merit. Syriza says it will welcome foreign investment to help restore growth so that Greece can pay its own way and not have to borrow in future. If the takeover of office goes smoothly, Syriza's victory could boost left-of-centre parties in the forthcoming UK and Spanish elections.

Chile pension reform will not tackle retirement age

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Pension System ◽  
Pension Reform ◽  
Current System ◽  
Safety Net ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Real Change ◽  
Pension Contribution ◽  
State Subsidies ◽  
Do So

Subject Pension reform. Significance On May 22, Chile’s Chamber of Deputies voted in favour of discussing a government bill to reform the country’s pension system. The initiative would require Chilean workers to contribute more towards their own retirement as well as improving the safety net for those unable to do so. Impacts If existing AFPs are barred from managing the extra 4% pension contribution, it will mark a real change to the current system. If the reform passes, pensioners in the poorest 60% of families will receive increased state subsidies. Pinera’s challenge will be to get enough support from the opposition to pass the bill without upsetting his own coalition's right wing.

Italy’s next government rests on Draghi’s fortunes

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
General Election ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
National Unity ◽  
Far Right ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Illegal Migrants ◽  
Five Star Movement ◽  
The Right

Significance This has put Salvini under pressure, though it has not weakened his support for Prime Minister Mario Draghi’s government of national unity. Support for Draghi suggests the League is becoming a more moderate party, which could help FdI consolidate support on the far right ahead of the next election, currently scheduled for 2023. Impacts The prospects of an amalgamation between the League and Forza Italia are strong, and would boost the former’s centrist credentials. While Five Star Movement support for Draghi is unreliable, its MPs do not want a general election as many of them would lose their seats. An unforeseen crisis, such as an uncontrollable wave of illegal migrants, would play into the hands of the right-wing parties.

Andalusia will set the stage for Spanish politics

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Strong Support ◽  
Identity Crisis ◽  
National Government ◽  
General Election ◽  
Socialist Party ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
Content Type

Significance Depending on the outcome, it could well prompt the national government to call an early general election before May 2019. Impacts Anti-immigration sentiment in Andalusia could force the Spanish government to rethink its ‘soft’ approach to immigration. Poor performances from the main centre-right parties could result in an identity crisis for right-wing Spanish politics. Strong support for the national ruling Socialist Party may prompt its leaders to focus on Spain's enhanced role in post-Brexit EU.

Italy’s new party dynamics are here to stay

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Party System ◽  
Fiscal Rules ◽  
Foreseeable Future ◽  
Government Bonds ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Five Star Movement ◽  
Italian Politics

Subject Italy's party system. Significance Italy’s party system has changed significantly in the wake of the economic and immigration crises, with the traditional centre-right and centre-left blocs undermined by the rise of the Five Star Movement (M5S) and the League. Despite the collapse of the M5S-League government after only 14 months, both parties will continue to occupy substantial ground in Italian politics for the foreseeable future. Impacts Spending limits as a result of EU fiscal rules and weak market confidence in government bonds are squeezing Italy's ability to modernise. Plans to cut the number of seats in parliament from 630 to 400 may avert a snap election as hundreds of MPs will lose their jobs. A potential gap in the Italian political marketplace concerns post-millennial climate change activism.

Finland will struggle to implement ambitious proposals

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Government Spending ◽  
Government Revenue ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
Left Wing ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Party Government ◽  
Sin Taxes ◽  
The Right ◽  
The Eu

Subject Finland's new government. Significance Over the next six months, Finland’s new five-party government will be fighting on two fronts: it seeks to increase government spending in areas such as welfare and climate change at home, and simultaneously use its six-month term in charge of the EU presidency to support ambitious international reforms related to climate change. Impacts The government’s failure to deliver targets could bring the right-wing populist Finns Party to power in the next election. The implementation of 'sin taxes' could backfire, with studies suggesting that they hit the working class most in the immediate term. Selling company holdings to increase government revenue could create distrust between unions and the left-wing parties in government.

Spain's election could revive a political crisis

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Significant Influence ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Political Instability ◽  
General Election ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
Content Type ◽  
High Profile ◽  
Near Term ◽  
Nationalist Parties

Subject Spain's upcoming general election. Significance Socialist Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez has called a snap election for April 28, following the rejection of his budget by right-wing opposition and Catalan nationalist parties. The election comes as twelve of Catalonia’s pro-independence leaders face high-profile public trials for their involvement in the unconstitutional referendum on Catalan independence in 2017. Impacts Political instability is unlikely to have a significant influence on the economy in the near term. A right-wing government would take a more hostile approach to immigration. It is doubtful that the trials will convert many pro-Spanish Catalans to support independence.

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