Prospects for Venezuela in 2022

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Election ◽  
Regional Government ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Popular Support ◽  
Policy Priority ◽  
Opposition Parties

Subject Prospects for Venezuela in 2022. Significance President Nicolas Maduro’s administration will enjoy a period of political ascendency following success in this month’s regional government elections. Economic recuperation ahead of the 2024 presidential election will be the policy priority. Opposition parties will be preoccupied with addressing internal factionalism and diminished popular support. The contradictions in US strategy on Venezuela will persist and undermine multilateral dialogue initiatives.

Modi may yet face a real opposition if it can unite

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
West Bengal ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
National Level ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Popular Support ◽  
Communal Violence ◽  
Congress Party ◽  
Bharatiya Janata Party ◽  
The Creation ◽  
Opposition Parties

Subject The likely strategy of the BJP's opponents. Significance The opposition to Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) lacks a coherent strategy at national level ahead of elections due in 2019. However, the large turnout at a public rally in Patna late last month, where Lalu Prasad Yadav brought together representatives of 18 opposition parties, suggests that there is popular support for a challenge to the BJP. Impacts States in which elections are due are more likely to see outbreaks of communal violence. Sonia Gandhi will come under increasing pressure to relinquish leadership of the Congress party. The BJP may support the creation of a separate Gorkhaland, at the risk of alienating support in the rest of West Bengal.

Ethiopia's Tigray-federal standoff may escalate

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Armed Forces ◽  
Regional Government ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Reforms ◽  
Opposition Parties

Significance Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has dismissed the possibility of a resort to force, but relations with the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) regional government are rapidly unravelling. Impacts In the absence of any major opposition parties, Tigray’s elections will not be genuinely competitive. Tensions with Tigray may undermine cohesion in the armed forces, threatening national stability. Continued confrontations could detract from and delay implementation of a range of broader economic and political reforms.

Putin will stand back from Russia's Duma polls

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Crisis ◽  
Communist Party ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
The State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Force ◽  
Popular Support ◽  
Economic Problems ◽  
Vladimir Putin ◽  
Opposition Parties

Subject The Russian president's options for winning September elections. Significance The September 2016 elections to Russia's parliament, the State Duma, are the first to coincide with a severe economic crisis since President Vladimir Putin came to power. The authorities are determined to prevent social discontent escalating into the kind of protests seen after the last polls in December 2011, which unsettled Putin's plans for re-election in March 2012. Popular support for Putin remains high, and 'loyal opposition' parties such as the Communists are blaming economic problems on Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev instead. Impacts Signs that the recession is slowing will reduce the scope for a protest vote. Putin is keen to get EU sanctions lifted by July, not least for the electoral benefits. Buoyed by growing popular support, the Communist Party may evolve into a more active political force.

China-Maldives free trade agreement may not endure

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Free Trade ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Free Trade Agreement ◽  
Due Process ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
Infrastructure Projects ◽  
Economic Interests ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Chinese Companies ◽  
Opposition Parties

Subject Prospects for the China-Maldives free trade agreement. Significance The Maldivian government is aligning itself with Chinese political and economic interests. The free trade agreement (FTA) it signed with Beijing in late November is raising concerns in India, the Maldives’ longstanding security and economic partner. Maldivian President Abdulla Yameen is under pressure domestically from opposition parties who claim the deal was pushed through without following due process. Impacts A growing number of Chinese companies may explore opportunities under the FTA to develop resorts in the Maldives. China, which already provides the most visitors to the country, will increase its share of the Maldives’ tourism market. The Maldivian opposition will seek, and likely receive, Indian support to ensure a fair presidential election. Indian firms may seek to recover control of infrastructure projects if Yameen loses the 2018 poll.

Federalising Ukraine is unpopular and will be resisted

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Regional Government ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Popular Support ◽  
Lasting Peace ◽  
Sticking Point

Significance The president has launched a process at the Constitutional Commission that seeks to address one of the main conditions underpinning the Minsk 2.0 process: the decentralisation of power. So far, proposals presented by Kyiv have failed to appeal to the separatists and the president's reluctance to engage with federalist solutions continues to be a sticking-point. Until this issue can be resolved, the ability of Kyiv to achieve a lasting peace in the east will be limited. Impacts Poroshenko is under Western pressure to deliver on regional decentralisation before the end of this year. Russia will maintain economic, military and security pressure to highlight to Kyiv that a federal solution is the only long-term option. Popular support for reforming the system of regional government could provide an opportunity to devolve special powers to separatist areas.

Poll stand-off will raise instability risks in Guinea

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Disease Control ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Legislative Elections ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Past ◽  
Leading Role ◽  
International Donors ◽  
Opposition Parties

Significance Protests have rocked the capital, Conakry, for the past few weeks. Since the country held its first competitive presidential election in 2010, all other polls have been subject to delays. Legislative elections eventually took place in 2013, but were disputed. Local polls last occurred in 2005. The country exists in a climate of deep political mistrust. Impacts Incomplete Ebola data raises the risk that new cases may go undetected, portending sporadic future outbreaks. However, the new US-backed African Centres for Disease Control fund will help international donors to be better prepared. Disruptions to output and investor aversion caused by Ebola are likely to slow economic growth to zero during 2015, but recover thereafter. If opposition parties opt to boycott the poll, further UN mediation may be necessary, possibly with France playing a leading role.

Rajapaksa party should easily win Sri Lanka election

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Sri Lanka ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Full Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Agriculture Sector ◽  
Opposition Parties

Significance Mahinda Rajapaksa, a former president and leader of the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP), is seeking a mandate for a full term as prime minister; he was appointed premier last November after victory for his brother and party colleague, Gotabaya Rajapaksa, in a presidential election. Meanwhile, plans by certain politicians to consolidate the opposition challenge have foundered. Impacts The Rajapaksas will campaign for the election on a strongly nationalist platform. Muslim voters are more likely to back opposition parties, but some will support the SLPP. The agriculture sector will likely grow faster than other parts of the economy.

Panama political tensions set to rise before election

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Negative Impact ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Presidential Candidate ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Popular Support ◽  
Presidential Candidates ◽  
High Level ◽  
Economic Competence ◽  
Selection Of ◽  
Opposition Parties

Subject Election preparations. Significance With the selection of Jose Isabel Blandon Figueroa as the presidential candidate for the ruling Panamenista Party (PP) in May’s election, the slate of candidates is now complete. Blandon is unlikely to be a leading contender, but neither of the two main opposition parties has substantial popular support at present, owing to public frustration with a series of high-level corruption scandals. This means that the race is wide open and will be tightly fought, with potential for an outsider candidate to launch a surprise attack on the established parties. Impacts Presidential candidates will focus on security and the economy rather than corruption, pledging more spending for policing in particular. Blandon will emphasise the PP’s economic competence, highlighting Panama’s consistently strong GDP growth this year. Any corruption revelations over the next seven months could have a major negative impact on the party or candidate implicated.

Uneasy Venezuelan military faces conflicting pressures

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Crisis ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
South American ◽  
Primary Target ◽  
Security Sector ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Eu ◽  
Opposition Parties

Significance The petro represents an attempt to alleviate Venezuela's deep economic crisis, which is also affecting military morale. Amid signs of military discontent, 19 officers have been arrested this month. At the same time, despite alleged US pressure and bitter criticism from opposition parties boycotting the May 20 presidential election, opposition candidate Henri Falcon has continued to mobilise for his presidential bid. Impacts Protests will be launched over coming days by the abstentionist block, elevating the risk of violence and disorder. Falcon’s continued candidacy will push abstentionist parties into a deeper and more domestically unpopular partnership with Washington. A disaffected and demoralised security sector will be a primary target for opposition lobbying and pressure. US petro sanctions will likely be followed by countries including Canada, the EU and some South American countries.

Oiling the Wheels of Multi-Party Politics in Africa: How Power Alternation Affects Party Financing in Ghana

2019 ◽  
Vol 55 (5) ◽  
pp. 666-682
Author(s):  
Joseph Oti Frimpong
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Party Politics ◽  
Literature Study ◽  
Incumbency Advantage ◽  
Party Funding ◽  
Opposition Parties

Supplementing literature study with in-depth unstructured interviews from the two dominant political parties in Ghana on how they mobilize funds, the key argument of this article is that the loss of a presidential election in Ghana is a reduction in a party’s major income streams. Unlike other studies that look at incumbency advantage in party funding from the angle of governments’ policies that weaken the opposition parties, this article analyses incumbency from their sources of funds. It fulfils two major objectives of identifying the sources of funds of political parties and establishing the link between these sources and incumbency.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document