Western Sahara's new envoy faces old challenges

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Spillover Effects ◽  
Secretary General ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Western Sahara ◽  
Independence Movement ◽  
International Diplomacy

Significance On October 6, the UN Secretary-General announced the appointment of a new personal envoy to the Western Sahara dispute, Staffan de Mistura, an Italian diplomat with a four-decade career in numerous hotspots, most recently Syria and Iraq. De Mistura takes on the post amid increased military hostilities between Western Saharan independence movement Polisario and Moroccan forces. Impacts Morocco and Polisario will use different kinds of international diplomacy to pursue their aims. Growing conflict in Western Sahara could have dangerous spillover effects that would draw in Algeria. Without a significant reduction in tensions in Western Sahara, an Algerian-Moroccan rapprochement is unlikely.

Linkages between cross-country business cycles, cross-country stock market cycles and cross-country real estate market cycles

2016 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 123-146 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kim Hiang Liow
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Business Cycles ◽  
Spillover Effects ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
Stock Market Index ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Market Index ◽  
Cross Country ◽  
The Cross

Purpose This research aims to investigate whether and to what extent the co-movements of cross-country business cycles, cross-country stock market cycles and cross-country real estate market cycles are linked across G7 from February 1990 to June 2014. Design/methodology/approach The empirical approaches include correlation analysis on Hodrick–Prescott (HP) cycles, HP cycle return spillovers effects using Diebold and Yilmaz’s (2012) spillover index methodology, as well as Croux et al.’s (2001) dynamic correlation and cohesion methodology. Findings There are fairly strong cycle-return spillover effects between the cross-country business cycles, cross-country stock market cycles and cross-country real estate market cycles. The interactions among the cross-country business cycles, cross-country stock market cycles and cross-country real estate market cycles in G7 are less positively pronounced or exhibit counter-cyclical behavior at the traditional business cycle (medium-term) frequency band when “pure” stock market cycles are considered. Research limitations/implications The research is subject to the usual limitations concerning empirical research. Practical implications This study finds that real estate is an important factor in influencing the degree and behavior of the relationship between cross-country business cycles and cross-country stock market cycles in G7. It provides important empirical insights for portfolio investors to understand and forecast the differential benefits and pitfalls of portfolio diversification in the long-, medium- and short-cycle horizons, as well as for research studying the linkages between the real economy and financial sectors. Originality/value In adding to the existing body of knowledge concerning economic globalization and financial market interdependence, this study evaluates the linkages between business cycles, stock market cycles and public real estate market cycles cross G7 and adds to the academic real estate literature. Because public real estate market is a subset of stock market, our approach is to use an original stock market index, as well as a “pure” stock market index (with the influence of real estate market removed) to offer additional empirical insights from two key complementary perspectives.

Evidence of leverage effects and volatility spillover among exchange rates of selected emerging and growth leading economies

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 174-192 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ajaya Kumar Panda ◽  
Swagatika Nanda ◽  
Vipul Kumar Singh ◽  
Satish Kumar
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Asset Management ◽  
Spillover Effects ◽  
International Investment ◽  
Multivariate Garch ◽  
Conditional Volatility ◽  
Substantial Impact ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Volatility Spillovers ◽  
Strongly Connected

Purpose The purpose of this study is to examine the evidences of leverage effects on the conditional volatility of exchange rates because of asymmetric innovations and its spillover effects among the exchange rates of selected emerging and growth-leading economies. Design/methodology/approach The empirical analysis uses the sign bias test and asymmetric generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models to capture the leverage effects on conditional volatility of exchange rates and also uses multivariate GARCH (MGARCH) model to address volatility spillovers among the studied exchange rates. Findings The study finds substantial impact of asymmetric innovations (news) on the conditional volatility of exchange rates, where Russian Ruble is showing significant leverage effect followed by Indian Rupee. The exchange rates depict significant mean spillover effects, where Rupee, Peso and Ruble are strongly connected; Real, Rupiah and Lira are moderately connected; and Yuan is the least connected exchange rate within the sample. The study also finds the assimilation of information in foreign exchanges and increased spillover effects in the post 2008 periods. Practical implications The results probably have the implications for international investment and asset management. Portfolio managers could use this research to optimize their international portfolio. Policymakers such as central banks may find the study useful to monitor and design interventions strategies in foreign exchange markets keeping an eye on the nature of movements among these exchange rates. Originality/value This is one of the few empirical research studies that aim to explore the leverage effects on exchange rates and their volatility spillovers among seven emerging and growth-leading economies using advanced econometric methodologies.

A review of Zimbabwe’s macro-fiscal forecasts

2017 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 433-440 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chathebert Mudhunguyo
Keyword(s):  
Root Mean Square Error ◽  
Service Delivery ◽  
Mean Square Error ◽  
Root Mean Square ◽  
Public Service ◽  
Spillover Effects ◽  
Mean Square ◽  
Public Service Delivery ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Forecasting Errors

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to evaluate accuracy of macro fiscal forecasts done by Government of Zimbabwe and the spillover effects of forecasting errors over the period 2010-2015. Design/methodology/approach In line with the study objectives, the study employed the root mean square error methodology to measure the accuracy of macro fiscal forecasts, borrowing from the work of Calitz et al. (2013). The spillover effects were assessed through running simple regression in Eviews programme. The data used in the analysis are based on annual national budget forecasts presented to the Parliament by the Minister of Finance. Actual data come from the Ministry of Finance budget outturns and Zimbabwe Statistical Agency published national accounts. Findings The results of the root mean square error revealed relatively high levels of macro-fiscal forecasting errors, with revenue recording the highest. The forecasting errors display a tendency of under predicting the strength of economic recovery during boom and over predicting its strength during periods of weakness. The study although found significant evidence of GDP forecasting errors translating into revenue forecasting inaccuracies, the GDP forecasting errors fail to fully account for the revenue errors. Revenue errors were, however, found to be positive and significant in explaining the budget balance errors. Originality/value In other jurisdictions, particularly developed countries, they undertake regular evaluation of their forecasts in order to improve their forecasting procedures, which translate into quality public service delivery. The situation is lagging in Zimbabwe. Given the poor performance in public service delivery in Zimbabwe, this study contributes in dissecting the sources of the challenge by providing a comprehensive review of macro fiscal forecasts.

Tariff barriers and industrial spillover effects

2018 ◽  
Vol 22 (3) ◽  
pp. 228-246 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jong Woo Kang ◽  
Suzette Dagli
Keyword(s):  
Negative Impact ◽  
Spillover Effects ◽  
Comparative Statics ◽  
Equilibrium Analysis ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Substitution Effects ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Indirect Impact ◽  
Backward Linkages ◽  
Linkage Effects

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate that higher tariffs under protectionism will have significant indirect impact through industrial forward and backward linkages, causing greater economic losses to tariff-imposing economies than to exporting countries. Design/methodology/approach The authors use partial equilibrium analysis based on unique multi-regional input-output (IO) data in measuring the second-round spillover effects of higher tariffs, also investigating the scenario of plausible substitutability across import sources as well as sectors based on historical import intensity data. Findings Higher tariffs do not only have a direct impact, but also a significant indirect impact—through forward and backward linkages. Indirect effects can be extensive across economies and sectors—both in forward and backward linkages such as in transport—when value chains are longer and more complex. When possible substitution effects between different import sources and sectors are considered, negative forward linkage effects can be smaller, while negative backward linkage effects become more pronounced. Nevertheless, both negative effects are still found to be much bigger in indirect impacts compared with direct impacts. Research limitations/implications This implies that higher tariffs, including administrative trade measures such as anti-dumping duties and countervailing duties could ironically entail rather greater negative impact on the tariff-imposing importing economies by damaging their exports of domestic sectors using the targeted imports as intermediate inputs, which could be severe if the importing sector has a long value chain in particular through deep forward linkages. Originality/value This paper uses unique multi-regional IO data covering 45 economies’ 35 sectors in analyzing the second-round spillover effects across countries and sectors and employs comparative statics under different scenarios.

Spillover effects of financial development on the informal economic activity

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 471-482
Author(s):  
Salih Katircioglu ◽  
Hatice Imamoglu
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Financial Development ◽  
Informal Economy ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Missing Values ◽  
Spillover Effects ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Cointegration Tests

Purpose This study aims to investigate the role and spillover effects of the financial sector on the size of the informal economic activity in Turkey. Design/methodology/approach Time series analysis has been adopted for annual data of the 1970-2017 period. New approaches in unit root and cointegration tests have been used in this study. Estimations have been done via dynamic ordinary least squares and fully modified ordinary least square approaches. Findings Results confirm the existence of a long-run equilibrium relationship between the financial system and informal economic activities in Turkey. At the earlier stages of financial development (FD), informality tends to rise while in further stages, informality tends to decline over time. This study confirms the U-shaped relationship between FD and the informal economy in Turkey. Research limitations/implications This study has used logarithmic values of series in the econometric analysis except for real interest rates because of negative values in some periods. Thus, by using level forms of real interest, missing values would be avoided. Practical implications Increasing efficiency, control and institutional quality, as well as the quality of governance environment, would be useful tools in reducing the size of informality, as this study finds that spillover effects of financial services on the informal economic activity are adverse. Originality/value This study is the first of its kind to the best of the knowledge in the case of Turkey, which estimates the spillover effects of FD on informal economic activity.

scholarly journals An analysis of CEE equity market integration and their volatility spillover effects

2019 ◽  
Vol 29 (1) ◽  
pp. 23-40 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ngo Thai Hung
Keyword(s):  
Market Integration ◽  
Design Methodology ◽  
Spillover Effects ◽  
Equity Market ◽  
Multivariate Garch ◽  
The Czech Republic ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Volatility Spillovers ◽  
Conditional Correlations ◽  
Practical Implications

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine the conditional correlations and spillovers of volatilities across CEE markets, namely, Hungary, Poland, the Czech Republic, Romania and Croatia, in the post-2007 financial crisis period. Design/methodology/approach The authors use five-dimensional GARCH-BEKK alongside with the CCC and DCC models. Findings The estimation results of the three models generally demonstrate that the correlations between these markets are particularly significant. Also, own-volatility spillovers are generally lower than cross-volatility spillovers for all markets. Practical implications These results recommend that investors should take caution when investing in the CEE equity markets as well as diversifying their portfolios so as to minimize risk. Originality/value Unlike the previous studies in this field, this paper is the first study using multivariate GARCH-BEKK alongside with CCC and DCC models. The study makes an outstanding contribution to the existing literature on spillover effects and conditional correlations in the CEE financial stock markets.

Engagement valence duality and spillover effects in online brand communities

2017 ◽  
Vol 27 (4) ◽  
pp. 877-897 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jana Lay-Hwa Bowden ◽  
Jodie Conduit ◽  
Linda D. Hollebeek ◽  
Vilma Luoma-aho ◽  
Birgit Apenes Solem
Keyword(s):  
Comparative Method ◽  
Spillover Effect ◽  
Spillover Effects ◽  
Consumer Engagement ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Brand Communities ◽  
Brand Engagement ◽  
Online Brand Communities ◽  
Constant Comparative Method ◽  
Depth Interviews

Purpose Online brand communities (OBCs) are an effective avenue for brands to engage consumers. While engaging with the brand, consumers simultaneously interact with other OBC members; thus engaging with multiple, interrelated engagement objects concurrently. The purpose of this paper is to explore both positively and negatively valenced consumer engagement with multiple engagement objects, the interplay between these, and the spillover effect from consumers’ engagement with the OBC to their engagement with the brand. Design/methodology/approach Drawing on 16 in-depth interviews with OBC members of a luxury accessory brand, a constant comparative method was adopted using axial and selective coding procedures. The objective was to understand the nature of participants’ engagement with the brand, the OBC, and the interplay between individuals’ engagement with these objects. The coding framework and resultant interpretive frameworks address engagement valence, outcomes, and direction. Findings This study illustrates consumer expressions of consumers’ positively and negatively valenced engagement with a focal brand, and with the OBC. Further, it demonstrates the interplay (spillover effect) that occurs between consumers’ engagement with the OBC, to their engagement with the brand. While the existence of positively valenced engagement with the OBC was found to further enhance consumer brand engagement (i.e. reflecting an engagement accumulation effect), negatively valenced engagement with the OBC was found to reduce consumer brand engagement (i.e. reflecting an engagement detraction effect). Originality/value While consumer engagement has been recognized to have both positive and negative manifestations, this study demonstrates that consumers’ engagement valence may differ across interrelated engagement objects (i.e. the brand and the OBC). Further, we demonstrate the existence of engagement spillover effects from the OBC to the brand for both positively and negatively valenced engagement.

Morocco looks set to get closer to Gulf states

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Middle East ◽  
East Africa ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Western Sahara ◽  
Gulf States

Significance The kingdom was previously seen as withdrawn from and largely peripheral to the wider Middle East. However, two issues -- the Israel-Morocco normalisation agreement in late 2020 and the consequent revival of the Western Sahara issue, with US recognition of Morocco’s claims over the territory -- have brought Rabat further into the spotlight. Impacts Morocco will expand its diplomatic and economic partnerships to East Africa. Rabat may try again to position itself as a constructive international actor through offering mediation services. EU states will need to balance their commitment to the UN process in Western Sahara with maintaining strong tries to Rabat.

Do the flipped impacts of hotels matter to the popularity of Airbnb?

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Bowen Yi ◽  
Da Shi ◽  
Fangfang Shi ◽  
Liang Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Spillover Effects ◽  
Set Covering ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Competitive Effects ◽  
Competition Theory ◽  
Relationship Model ◽  
Hotel Managers ◽  
Multidimensional Effects

Purpose By building on cooperation–competition theory, this study aims to investigate the multidimensional flipped effects of neighborhood hotels on Airbnb listings’ popularity, examining the degree to which such impacts are influenced by hotel types and geographical areas. Design/methodology/approach This study explores the interdependent and competitive relationship between neighborhood hotels and Airbnb from the perspective of effects on Airbnb listings’ popularity by exploring a data set covering 10,492 Airbnb listings and 2,691 hotels from Ctrip. Findings Results reveal that neighborhood hotels’ number of reviews, review ratings and prices each have positive spillover effects on Airbnb listings’ popularity, while quality assurance labels and negative review topic sentiments exert competitive effects on Airbnb popularity. Moreover, the number of budget chain hotels and high-star hotels have positive and negative effects on Airbnb popularity, respectively. Geographical areas also have a moderating effect on the relationship between various hotel-related influencing factors and Airbnb. Practical implications This study can offer hotel managers and Airbnb operators a clearer understanding of these businesses’ coexisting relationship. Findings can also provide Airbnb-specific guidelines for practitioners in terms of site selection, promotional features and development strategies for Airbnb listings. Originality/value This study establishes a cooperation–competition relationship model between hotels and Airbnb and considers the flipped effects of hotels on Airbnb for the first time. It expands previous studies by considering the multidimensional effects of hotels on Airbnb listings’ popularity and by examining the influences of hotel types and geographical areas on hotels’ impacts on Airbnb.

How do foreign customers' perceptions of product-harm crises affect their transfer of capability- and character-based stigma?

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Rui Xue ◽  
Gongming Qian ◽  
Zhengming Qian ◽  
Lee Li
Keyword(s):  
Purchase Intention ◽  
Structural Equation ◽  
Country Of Origin ◽  
Spillover Effects ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Product Knowledge ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Stigma By Association ◽  
Product Preferences ◽  
Association Effect

PurposeCustomers often trace a product-harm crisis to the deviant firm's capability- or character-relevant issues. This study examines how capability- and character-based stigma associated with product-harm crises influence foreign customers' product preferences (i.e. brand affect and purchase intention) for other firms from the same country of origin.Design/methodology/approachQualitative survey data are used to test hypotheses with a structural equation model.FindingsThe authors find that negative capability judgment significantly affects foreign customers' product preferences for other firms from the same country of origin, whereas negative character judgment does not. However, customers' national animosity and product knowledge moderate the stigma spillover effects. Specifically, national animosity and product knowledge weaken the spillover effects of capability-based stigma but strengthen those of character-based stigma.Research limitations/implicationsFuture research could examine strategies for uninvolved firms to avoid the stigma-by-association effect. Moreover, due to the lack of resources to collect data, this study does not investigate how customers' generalized favorability and familiarity with crisis-stricken firms and uninvolved firms moderate the stigma-by-association effect.Originality/valueThe findings of this study advance our knowledge on product-harm crises and the stigma-by-association effect.

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