Scenarios for European growth are narrow

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Downward Trend ◽  
Fiscal Rules ◽  
Fiscal Stimulus ◽  
Content Type ◽  
European Economic ◽  
Political Backlash ◽  
Economic Outlook ◽  
The Eu ◽  
Stimulus Package

Subject European economic outlook. Significance European economic growth is set to continue on a downward trend and might turn negative. Despite the need for substantial macroeconomic expansion, it is difficult to envision a scenario in which it can be engineered within Europe, while pressures outside the EU will make the economic environment more fragile. Impacts Only a recession in Germany which triggers a strong political backlash could see Berlin implement a significant fiscal stimulus package. While Europe’s dependency on Saudi oil is low, a prolonged decline in production would add to pressure on its economy. Italy’s new government will respect EU fiscal rules and reduce concerns that Italy could leave the euro.

UK economic strategy could bring short-term results

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Free Trade Agreements ◽  
The United States ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Economic Strategy ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
Fiscal Conservatism ◽  
Political Backlash ◽  
Economic Outlook ◽  
The Eu

Subject UK economic outlook. Significance The United Kingdom’s economic strategy under Prime Minister Boris Johnson signals a clear break with the fiscal conservatism of the last decade. In order to both boost productivity and growth, and address the political backlash against cuts to public services, the government has promised to implement significant spending increases and tax cuts. Impacts London's plans are to show the EU that it is ready for a no deal and opposition parties that the Conservatives are ready for elections. Extra borrowing will not cause significant market difficulties in the short term, even if there is a no-deal Brexit. A no-deal Brexit will increase significantly the pressure to strike free trade agreements with such countries as the United States.

COVID-19 will batter Japan’s economy

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Health System ◽  
Air Travel ◽  
State Of Emergency ◽  
Fiscal Stimulus ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Japanese Firms ◽  
The Government ◽  
Emergency Measures ◽  
Economic Outlook ◽  
Stimulus Package

Subject The economic outlook for Japan amid the COVID-19 pandemic. Significance Japan has had unusually few confirmed cases of COVID-19, but government advisers warn that a recent spike could lead to a runaway spread that overwhelms the health system. In response, the government declared a state of emergency on April 7 and announced a huge fiscal stimulus package. Compared to other countries, the emergency measures are far more lenient and the economic stimulus package more generous. Impacts Exports are collapsing, as well as tourism, hotels, entertainment venues and air travel. Remote working, which fewer than 20% of Japanese firms currently practise, will receive a boost. The government stimulus package is likely to be smaller than headline figures suggest.

Gap between France’s Macron and Le Pen is narrowing

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Public Support ◽  
Fiscal Rules ◽  
Terrorist Attacks ◽  
Law And Order ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Investment Agreement ◽  
State Investment ◽  
The Eu

Significance Nevertheless, Le Pen remains the most serious threat to President Emmanuel Macron's hopes for re-election in 2022. She stands above him in some national polls, reflecting her success in broadening RN’s appeal, widespread anti-establishment sentiment and Macron’s unpopularity and mixed record on COVID-19. Impacts To revive the economy, Macron will likely campaign for reform of EU fiscal rules to enable greater levels of state investment. Further terrorist attacks or assaults on police would increase the salience of immigration and law and order ahead of the 2022 election. Ahead of the election, Macron will be reluctant to show public support for the EU-China investment agreement.

Uruguay's economy will avoid recession, narrowly

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Near Term ◽  
The Government ◽  
Foreign Ministers ◽  
Cellulose Plant ◽  
Economic Outlook

Subject The near-term economic outlook. Significance The statist model preferred by the governing Frente Amplio (FA) coalition clashes with the plan designed by President Tabare Vazquez and his economy and foreign ministers, Danilo Astori and Rodolfo Nin Novoa respectively, to try to attract greater inward investment. This adds to intra-coalition tensions after the defection of a centre-left legislator caused the government to lose its congressional majority. Impacts The fear of losing support may help to concentrate FA minds on smoothing over party splits. A new cellulose plant would boost economic growth but not diversification. The economy will avoid recession, but growth will not pick up strongly in the near term.

Political uncertainty will deter investment in Fiji

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Foreign Investment ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
Asian Countries ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Ethnic Populations ◽  
Regional Demand ◽  
Growth Prospects ◽  
The Government ◽  
Economic Outlook

Subject The economic outlook for Fiji. Significance Fiji has returned to political stability and a degree of international legitimacy in recent years, albeit in a context of poor to moderate economic growth. GDP growth of 4.0 % is forecast for 2015, but the outlook for Fiji's main industries (tourism, gold and services) remains stagnant as aggregate regional demand for resources slumps and Fiji's comparative advantage as a regional services hub erodes. Impacts The government will actively promote FDI to boost Fiji's lacklustre economic growth prospects. The government will promote agriculture and fisheries to provide opportunities for disadvantaged rural and ethnic populations. Foreign investment in tourism will probably increase slowly as demand from Asian countries grows. Fiji's dominance in the South Pacific economy will likely diminish as advances in ICT allow it to be bypassed. Ways must be found to prevent loss of trained and educated personnel if Fiji is to maintain its central role.

Economic growth will boost Portugal’s government

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Political System ◽  
Tourism Industry ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
The Political ◽  
Turn Of The Millennium ◽  
Government Bonds ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Mediterranean Countries ◽  
The Eu

Significance Portugal is set for the best five-year period of growth since the turn of the millennium, unemployment is falling and public finances are showing positive signs. The upswing is reflected in the remarkable stability of the political system. Impacts The economic recovery is likely to drive down yields on government bonds. Centeno’s appointment as Eurogroup president will raise Portugal’s standing in the EU. Security concerns in many Mediterranean countries are likely to boost Portugal’s tourism industry.

Sendic departure may boost Uruguayan government

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Public Opinion ◽  
Vice President ◽  
Consumer Confidence ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
Economic Outlook

Subject Uruguay's political and economic outlook. Significance Vice-President Raul Sendic, elected in November 2014, resigned on September 9 as he faced legal and political questions relating to corruption allegations. His departure is a stain on the leftist government’s ethical credentials but opens up the possibility of improved coordination between the executive and legislature to expedite plans that are delayed or blocked in Congress. It comes as second-quarter data demonstrate economic growth, although public opinion remains gloomy. Impacts Growth will be insufficient to boost employment or consumer confidence this year. Sendic’s resignation was a setback but may have longer-term positive implications for the government. The FA may nevertheless struggle to retain the presidency in 2019, after 15 years in office.

Haitian stability boosts aid and investment hopes

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Dominican Republic ◽  
Infrastructure Investment ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Caribbean Community ◽  
Investment Plan ◽  
The Caribbean ◽  
The Eu

Subject Aid and development in Haiti. Significance On April 21, the EU announced a new aid package for Haiti. While part of this aid will be directed towards reconstruction projects, some will be allocated to the new government’s ambitious infrastructure investment plan. The scale of this plan means that the administration of President Jovenel Moise will also seek to win funding from other potential donors. Impacts While Moise's government provides some stability and leadership, it remains controversial and any mistakes could quickly trigger protests. Tenders will come under close scrutiny given heightened corruption suspicions in the wake of the regionwide Odebrecht scandal. If successfully funded, improved employment prospects could boost economic growth and relieve migrant pressure on the Dominican Republic. If US funding is reduced, Haiti could look to diversify its sources of aid, particularly within the Caribbean Community.

Divisions over EU defence integration look set to grow

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
National Level ◽  
Third Party ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Defence Spending ◽  
Defence Policy ◽  
Arms Exports ◽  
Security Relationship ◽  
Industry Integration ◽  
The Eu

Subject Future EU defence integration. Significance The Permanent Structured Cooperation (PESCO) and the European Defence Fund (EDF) have become key pillars of EU defence policy, but divergence between member states is increasingly making defence integration slow and limited. In addition, opposition towards third-party participation and arms exports, and uncertainty about the future EU-UK security relationship, threaten to diminish the capabilities of future EU defence projects. Impacts London’s exclusion from the EU’s Galileo project suggests Brussels does not want close UK collaboration in future EU initiatives. The EU will likely prioritise steps to enhance European defence industry integration in order to reduce duplication and overspending. National-level defence spending could stall over the coming years as a result of slowing economic growth across the euro-area.

German fiscal expansion is unlikely despite concerns

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Euro Area ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Consequences ◽  
The Third ◽  
Defence Spending ◽  
Economic Outlook ◽  
The Eu

Significance The economy shrank by 0.1% quarter-on-quarter in April-June; further shrinking in the third quarter would mean a technical recession. Since growth is not likely to pick up much in the next two to three quarters, the economic outlook for Germany is gloomy, with potentially significant political consequences. Impacts Germany’s hard-line stance against ambitious euro-area reform is likely to become more entrenched. The implications of a German slowdown for the EU-26 will increase the chances of the ECB using unconventional policy to add stimulus. A recession is likely to have negative effects on Germany’s defence spending, despite US pressure on Berlin to contribute more towards NATO.

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