Economic impact of the proposed Bangladesh–India FTA: potentials and realities

2014 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 135-153
Author(s):  
Chanwahn Kim ◽  
Mohammad Masudur Rahman ◽  
Laila Arjuman Ara
Keyword(s):  
Computable General Equilibrium ◽  
Free Trade Agreement ◽  
Design Methodology ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
Economic Effects ◽  
Costs And Benefits ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Trade Analysis ◽  
Global Trade Analysis Project

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to investigate the potential economic effects of the proposed Bangladesh-India free trade agreement (FTA). Design/methodology/approach – The authors have used the computable general equilibrium (CGE) analysis of Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) database. The analysis highlights the possible costs and benefits of the two nations within three different scenarios. Under Scenario I all bilateral import tariffs between Bangladesh and India are removed; Scenario II represents the setting where Bangladesh cuts its all tariffs by 75 and in Scenario III Bangladesh cuts tariffs by 50 percent. India cuts all their tariffs by 100 percent in all three scenarios. Findings – The findings indicate that India may gain more in terms of welfare and real GDP via the improved terms of trade while Bangladesh is going to have welfare loss, but if Bangladesh is able to make a preferential FTA like Scenario III with India its welfare, real GDP and exports will be increased substantially. Originality/value – This paper is the first-ever attempt to estimate the effect of the proposed Bangladesh-India FTA using CGE analysis of GTAP database version 7.

scholarly journals Does ASEAN-Korea FTA Reduce Poverty in Laos? The Roles of FDI and Trade Facilitation

2014 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 50-57 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jeong-Soo OH
Keyword(s):  
Household Income ◽  
Free Trade Agreement ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
Unskilled Labor ◽  
Poverty Level ◽  
Trade Facilitation ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Trade Analysis ◽  
Global Trade Analysis Project ◽  
The Impact

The objective of this paper is to attempt to quantify the impact of the ASEAN-Korea Free Trade Agreement (AKFTA) on the roles of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and the improvement of trade facilitation for the national economy and poverty. The study uses a standard Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model for this analysis. The simulation results show that with consideration to the flow of FDI and the improvement in trade facilitation. Laos has gained significantly from AKFTA. The real GDP, welfare, and household income have increased as well as improvement in Laos’ trade terms and balance. In addition, the income of unskilled labor that affects the poverty level has also increased significantly. Therefore, AKFTA has increased growth and also improved income distribution in Laos.

NAFTA withdrawal would have extensive economic effects

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Free Trade Agreement ◽  
Public Support ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
The United States ◽  
Economic Effects ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The North ◽  
Indirect Impacts ◽  
Deal Making

Subject Outlook for NAFTA. Significance Representatives from Canada, Mexico and the United States completed the fifth round of negotiations on modernising the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) last month. Most US opinion sees NAFTA as beneficial for the economy, but the administration of President Donald Trump is proposing increasingly unpalatable changes from Mexican and Canadian perspectives. Impacts Political developments in Mexico suggest that it will not cave in to US demands that it considers to be unreasonable. The indirect impacts of NAFTA collapse could be large; supply chain dislocation might raise prices and interest rates, dampening activity. US NAFTA withdrawal could give impetus to other countries' cooperation; Canada and Mexico are part of the ex-US Trans-Pacific Partnership. Trump could lose much public support if he withdraws from the deal, making it much more difficult to pass other legislation. Approaching elections in all three countries in 2018 will add a sense of urgency to the renegotiation process.

A Household Level Analysis of the Pakistan–Malaysia Free Trade Agreement

2018 ◽  
Vol 53 (7) ◽  
pp. 1062-1085 ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Aamir Khan ◽  
Qaisar Mehmood ◽  
Muhammad Zakaria ◽  
Muhammad Iftikhar ul Husnain
Keyword(s):  
Free Trade ◽  
Free Trade Agreement ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
Household Level ◽  
Trade Model ◽  
Trading Partners ◽  
Trade Analysis ◽  
Global Trade Analysis Project ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Level Analysis

Pakistan and Malaysia have a significant bilateral economic relationship. The Pakistan–Malaysia Free Trade Agreement (FTA) was signed in 2007, and was implemented in 2008. Pakistan’s volatile exports to Malaysia never achieved a sustainable period of growth. Trade balance has not achieved significant changes even after 9 years of implementation of the agreement. With this backdrop, this study first quantifies the current FTA between Pakistan and Malaysia and then suggests changes that could be made to improve the outcome for Pakistan. A new global economic trade model is adapted to include more detailed information on Pakistan’s labor and household groups into the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) database. This allows for a more detailed analysis of the impact of the FTA on Pakistan at the household level. The results show that there is win–win scenario for both Pakistan and Malaysia if both are able to renegotiate the current FTA to get the same tariff concession as awarded to each other’s trading partners.

scholarly journals Modelling Effects of Tariff Liberalisation on India’s Key Export Sectors: Analysis of the EU–India Free Trade Agreement

2017 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-22 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sangeeta Khorana ◽  
Badri G. Narayanan
Keyword(s):  
Free Trade ◽  
Computable General Equilibrium ◽  
Free Trade Agreement ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
Trade Diversion ◽  
Jel Classification ◽  
Welfare Impacts ◽  
Cge Modelling ◽  
Trade Analysis ◽  
The Eu

Trade agreements are increasingly being negotiated between developed and emerging economy partners. An example is the EU–India Free Trade Agreement (FTA) for which negotiations began in 2007. There has been a debate on the potential effects of the proposed FTA and how this can impact on India’s key export sectors. Our study addresses this aspect from a global computable general equilibrium (CGE) modelling perspective. Using the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) framework, we analyse trade and welfare impacts of the proposed FTA between the EU and India. Two scenarios are modelled: first, complete and immediate elimination of tariff on all goods traded and second, selective tariff elimination on textiles, wearing apparel and leather goods—products in which India has a comparative advantage. Results under both scenarios show that India enjoys positive welfare effects though there is a possibility of trade diversion. Under scenario 1, India loses due to a negative terms of trade (ToT) effect. Under scenario 2, with selective sectoral liberalisation, gains are mainly concentrated in the textiles, wearing apparel and leather sectors. There is a positive output effect from change in demand for factors of production, suggesting that the proposed FTA could lead to relocation of labour-intensive production to India. JEL Classification: F15, F47, F62

The Impact of Nontariff Trade Policy of European Union Crude Palm Oil Import on Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Rest of the World Economy: An Analysis in GTAP Framework

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 39-52
Author(s):  
Rozy A. Pratama ◽  
Tri Widodo
Keyword(s):  
European Union ◽  
Palm Oil ◽  
Computable General Equilibrium ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Trade Policies ◽  
The European Union ◽  
The World ◽  
Trade Analysis ◽  
Global Trade Analysis Project ◽  
The Impact

Indonesia and Malaysia are the largest producers and exporters of palm oil in the world vegetable oil market. Palm oil and its derivative products are the highest contributors to foreign exchange in 2018. This study aims to analyze the impact of the European Union import non-tariff trade policies on the Indonesian and Malaysian economies The analysis uses the Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model of world trade on the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) program. The results of this study found that the non-tariff import policy by the European Union had a negative impact on the economies of Indonesia and Malaysia. Moreover, the policy also has a negative impact on countries in Southeast Asia and the European Union. This shows that the enactment of non-tariff import trade policies for Indonesian and Malaysian palm oil products has a global impact.

Market overreaction, firm-specific information and macroeconomic variables in US and Chinese markets during COVID-19

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ooi Kok Loang ◽  
Zamri Ahmad
Keyword(s):  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Stock Return ◽  
Design Methodology ◽  
Specific Information ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Chinese Markets ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Loser Portfolio

PurposeThis study examines the impact of firm-specific information and macroeconomic variables on market overreaction of US and Chinese winner and loser portfolio before and during COVID-19.Design/methodology/approachThe firm-specific information includes firm size, volume, volatility, return of asset (ROA), return of equity (ROE), earning per share (EPS) and quick ratio while the macroeconomic variables are export rate, import rate, real GDP, nominal GDP, FDI, IPI and unemployment rate. Besides, one-third of the top performance stocks are categorized as winner portfolio while one-third of lowest performance stocks are categorized as loser portfolio. This study uses AECR to indicate stock return and measure market overreaction. GAECR is used to determine contrarian profit. The data range of pre-COVID-19 is from 1-Jan-2015 to 31-Dec-2019 while the period of COVID-19 is from 1-Jan-2020 to 31-Dec-2020.FindingsIn pre-COVID-19, firm-specific information (volatility, ROA, ROE and EPS) and macroeconomic variables are found to be correlated to stock return in US and Chinese portfolios except Chinese winner portfolio. Nonetheless, the impact of firm-specific information has vanished and macroeconomic variables are significant to stock return in COVID-19. It shows that investors rely on the economic indicators to trade in turbulent period due to emergence of COVID-19 as a disruption in market. Furthermore, US and Chinese portfolios are overreacted during COVID-19. Chinese loser portfolio has higher tendency of overreaction than US loser portfolio while US winner portfolio has higher tendency of overreaction than Chinese winner portfolio.Originality/valueThe results of this study assists academician, practitioners and investors on understanding and create awareness to the existence of market overreaction and the determinants that can cause the phenomenon.

China-United Kingdom free trade area

2017 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 111-126
Author(s):  
Shumei Chen ◽  
Dandan Li
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Free Trade ◽  
Free Trade Area ◽  
Economic Effects ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Trade Area ◽  
Simulation Results ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Trade Analysis

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to predict the likely economic effects of a free trade area (FTA) on both China and the United Kingdom (hereafter the UK). Design/methodology/approach Following literature review and trade relationship briefing, this paper uses the Global Trade Analysis Project simulation to predict the economic effects of such a FTA on both China and the UK. Findings The simulation results indicate that a China-UK free trade area (hereafter CUFTA) will bring more benefits than harm to both China and the UK, and achieving zero tariff or reducing technological barriers to trade (TBT) is mutually beneficial for both China and the UK, with the growth in GDP, economic welfare as well as import and export. Combining zero tariff and the reduction of TBT in exceptional departments is the most favorable way to improve the macroeconomic effects without bringing damaging effects on the comparative disadvantage industries such as transport equipment, chemicals industries for China and textiles and apparel industry for the UK. Originality/value After the UK voted to leave the European Union, CUFTA is put on the agenda by both the governments, yet there are fewer studies on CUFTA, with this paper being one of the early trials. Besides, based on the simulation results, some policy suggestions will be put forward for future negotiations and industrial policies’ adjustment.

Qard-al-Hasan-based monetary policy and the role of the central bank as the lender of last resort

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 326-345 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohammad Selim ◽  
M. Kabir Hassan
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Design Methodology ◽  
Equal Opportunities ◽  
Lender Of Last Resort ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Playing Field ◽  
Fair Competition ◽  
Real Gdp

Purpose This paper aims to examine how a central bank (CB) can act as a lender of last resort (LOLR) for both Islamic and conventional interest-based banks by pursuing a Qard-al-Hasan (QH)-based monetary policy (MP). Design/methodology/approach The role of the CB as LOLR under QH-based MP and its effects on major macroeconomic variables, including deposits, loan creation and aggregate expenditures, are examined on theoretical grounds by using the aggregate output and aggregate expenditure model under the framework of Islamic MP. Findings When the CB acts as LOLR by pursuing QH-based MP, it automatically empowers Islamic banks (IBs) by providing access to borrowing funds from the CB on a QH basis. As a result, IBs will not be required to hold billions of dollars as liquid assets against liquidity risks. Thus, the lending capacity of IBs will increase and deposit expansion, loan creation and aggregate expenditures in the economy will all expand. This will in turn increase real GDP and employment while reducing the unemployment rate. Originality/value This is the first paper to analyze CBs acting as LOLR for both IBs and conventional interest-based banks by pursuing a QH-based MP, thus providing equal opportunities and equal access to borrowing facilities from the CB, along with equal partnership and fair competition for all and absolutely no discrimination to anyone. The LOLR service to all banks under QH-based MP will unveil a new horizon of opportunities where all financial institutions are expected to thrive. IBs will escape the constraints of the constant fear of liquidity risks and find a level-playing field.

Modelling welfare effects under Pakistan–China free trade agreement

2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 202-218 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lubna Uzair ◽  
Ahmad Nawaz
Keyword(s):  
Trade Policy ◽  
Free Trade ◽  
Free Trade Agreement ◽  
Academic Research ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
Policy Formulation ◽  
Trade Creation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The World ◽  
The Impact

PurposeThis paper aims to empirically examine the trade creation and diversion impacts on merchandise imports of Pakistan under the Pakistan–China Free Trade Agreement (FTA). The analysis of Pakistan’s preferential treatment with its largest trade partner as well as the most substantial exporter of the world will help to shape trade policy, open windows for academic research and also gives an immense contribution in literature.Design/methodology/approachA disaggregated panel data on the imports of Pakistan from China and other WTO member countries and tariff concessions at Harmonized System (HS) two-digit level used for the agreement period of 2006-2012. The empirical analysis takes care of bias through robust and panel-corrected standard errors with time, industry-specific effects and controlling for multilateral trade resistance.FindingsEvidence found in support of trade creation under the Pakistan–China FTA. It means overall this agreement increased the welfare of Pakistani consumers.Practical implicationsFindings are in favour of negotiations and signing for the next round of this agreement and with other major trade partners like the US and Saudi Arabia.Originality/valueIt is worth investigating empirically the impact of preferential trade liberalization between Pakistan – a developing country – and China – the largest importer of the world – explicitly, in the form of trade creation or diversion. The empirical assessment of this FTA signed with the world’s largest exporter will not only contribute immensely to the literature but also help in trade policy formulation and open windows for academic research. Another unique aspect of this study is the use of disaggregated data consisting of all goods imports along with tariff concessions at two-digit Harmonized System (HS) code.

AIIB shows increased US-China institutional rivalry

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Free Trade ◽  
Free Trade Agreement ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
The United States ◽  
South East Asia ◽  
Content Type ◽  
White House ◽  
Regional Institutions ◽  
Institutional Competition

Significance London's actions drew a harsh, if unofficial, reaction from the White House. It underscores the growing rivalry between the United States and China over the changing architecture of global and regional institutions. Impacts Institutional competition will not spill over much into the security field, where China's neighbours seek to balance it. Increased European involvement in South-east Asia will accelerate movement towards an EU-ASEAN free trade agreement. Increased international prestige could help Chinese President Xi Jinping's domestic clout.

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