What determines the gold inflation relation in the long-run?

2017 ◽  
Vol 34 (4) ◽  
pp. 430-446 ◽  
Author(s):  
Satish Kumar
Keyword(s):  
Kalman Filter ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Wholesale Price ◽  
Gold Price ◽  
Real Effective Exchange Rate ◽  
Price Inflation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Dynamic Relation ◽  
Long Run

Purpose The author aims to examine the long-run dynamic relation between gold price and inflation in the Indian context from 1982 to 2015. The author measures inflation using consumer price index and wholesale price index (WPI). However, this study focuses on the long-run dynamic relation between gold price–WPI inflation. Design/methodology/approach The author uses Johansen’s cointegration technique (Johansen, 1991); single equation error correction model based on Pesaran et al. (2001) and Kanioura and Turner (2005); and the Saikkonen and Lütkepohl (2000) approach. The author also uses a time-varying regression framework in level form based on Kalman filter to examine the dynamic nature of gold–WPI relation. Findings The author finds no evidence of cointegration between gold and WPI. However, The author reports a significant dynamic relation between gold and inflation using a Kalman filter framework, and the comovement between these variables has in fact increased in the past decade. The results further indicate that variation in gold’s sensitivity to inflation can be explained by real effective exchange rate which supports the notion of using gold as an alternative to paper currency. Moreover, the WPI beta of gold is found to be predicted by both short- and long-term interest rate changes highlighting the monetary value of gold as a valuable asset. Practical implications From an emerging economy point of view, the results have implications for policy makers, particularly the central banks. The results of this paper caution the Reserve Bank of India against increasing its gold holdings as a reserve asset presuming that gold would preserve its purchasing power parity, at the same time providing a hedge against inflation. Originality/value To the best of the author’s knowledge, this is the first study to examine the gold price–inflation relation in the Indian market for such a long period of time. More importantly, the study shows that the changes in gold’s long-term sensitivity to WPI can be forecast using fundamental variables like interest rates.

Inflation Dynamics and Monetary Policy in India: A New Keynesian Phillips Curve Perspective

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 144-179 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bhavesh Salunkhe ◽  
Anuradha Patnaik
Keyword(s):  
Price Index ◽  
Phillips Curve ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Wholesale Price ◽  
New Keynesian ◽  
Real Effective Exchange Rate ◽  
Output Gap ◽  
Moderate Degree ◽  
New Keynesian Phillips Curve ◽  
Price Inflation

The present study estimates various specifications of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) models for India over 1996Q2 to 2017Q2 using Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Wholesale Price Index (WPI) inflation, separately. The empirical results suggest that the data support all the specifications of the Phillips curve models based on both the CPI and WPI inflations. However, the backward looking and hybrid models provide robust results for both the inflation indices. While the forward-looking behaviour dominates the CPI inflation trajectory, the backward-looking behaviour greatly influences the trajectory of WPI inflation. Also, a small-to-moderate degree of persistence is evident in both the CPI and WPI inflation. The output gap, which mainly represents the demand side pressures, turns up the major force determining both the CPI and WPI inflations. Besides the output gap, real effective exchange rate (reer), international crude oil price inflation, global non-fuel commodity price inflation and rainfall have a modest impact on the CPI and WPI inflations. JEL Classification: E12, E52, C36, C14

Long run apartment price dynamics in Swedish and German cities

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sviatlana Engerstam
Keyword(s):  
Banking Sector ◽  
Cointegration Analysis ◽  
Price Dynamics ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Price Elasticities ◽  
Long Run ◽  
German Cities

PurposeThis study examines the long term effects of macroeconomic fundamentals on apartment price dynamics in major metropolitan areas in Sweden and Germany.Design/methodology/approachThe main approach is panel cointegration analysis that allows to overcome certain data restrictions such as spatial heterogeneity, cross-sectional dependence, and non-stationary, but cointegrated data. The Swedish dataset includes three cities over a period of 23 years, while the German dataset includes seven cities for 29 years. Analysis of apartment price dynamics include population, disposable income, mortgage interest rate, and apartment stock as underlying macroeconomic variables in the model.FindingsThe empirical results indicate that apartment prices react more strongly on changes in fundamental factors in major Swedish cities than in German ones despite quite similar development of these macroeconomic variables in the long run in both countries. On one hand, overreactions in apartment price dynamics might be considered as the evidence of the price bubble building in Sweden. On the other hand, these two countries differ in institutional arrangements of the housing markets, and these differences might contribute to the size of apartment price elasticities from changes in fundamentals. These arrangements include various banking sector policies, such as mortgage financing and valuation approaches, as well as different government regulations of the housing market as, for example, rent control.Originality/valueIn distinction to the previous studies carried out on Swedish and German data for single-family houses, this study focuses on the apartment segment of the market and examines apartment price elasticities from a long term perspective. In addition, the results from this study highlight the differences between the two countries at the city level in an integrated long run equilibrium framework.

A multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis of housing market: a role of financial crises in developed economies

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Syed Ali Raza ◽  
Nida Shah ◽  
Muhammad Tahir Suleman ◽  
Md Al Mamun
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Housing Market ◽  
Market Efficiency ◽  
House Price ◽  
Fluctuation Analysis ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Multifractal Detrended Fluctuation Analysis ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Before And After

Purpose This study aims to examine the house price fluctuations in G7 countries by using the multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA) for the years 1970–2019. The study examined the market efficiency between the short-term and long-term in the full sample period, before and after the global financial crisis period. Design/methodology/approach This study uses the MF-DFA to analyze house price fluctuations. Findings The findings confirmed that the housing market series are multifractal. Furthermore, all the markets showed long-term persistence in both the short and long-term. The USA is identified as the most persistent house market in the short run and Japan in the long run. Moreover, in terms of efficiency, Canada is identified as the most efficient house market in the long run and the UK in the short run. Finally, the result of before and after the financial crisis period is consistent with the full sample result. Originality/value The contribution of this study in the literature is fourfold. This is the first study that has examined the house prices efficiency by using the MF-DFA technique given by Kantelhardt et al. (2002). Previously, the house market prices and efficiency has been investigated using generalized Hurst exponent (Liu et al., 2019), Quantile Regression Approach (Chae and Bera, 2019; Tiwari et al., 2019) but no study to the best of the knowledge has been done that has used the MF-DFA technique on the housing market. Second, this is the first study that has focused on the house markets of G7 countries. Third, this study explores the house market efficiency by dividing the market into two periods i.e. before and after the financial crisis. The study strives to investigate if the financial crisis determines the change in the degree of market efficiency or not. Finally, the study gives valuable insights to the investors that will help them in their investment decisions.

Tornadoes, poverty and race in the USA: A five-decade analysis

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Russ D. Kashian ◽  
Tracy Buchman ◽  
Robert Drago
Keyword(s):  
African American ◽  
African Americans ◽  
Study Finding ◽  
Median Income ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Vulnerable Communities ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Level Data ◽  
The Usa

PurposeThe study aims to analyze the roles of poverty and African American status in terms of vulnerability to tornado damages and barriers to recovery afterward.Design/methodology/approachUsing five decades of county-level data on tornadoes, the authors test whether economic damages from tornadoes are correlated with vulnerability (proxied by poverty and African American status) and wealth (proxied by median income and educational attainment), controlling for tornado risk. A multinomial logistic difference-in-difference (DID) estimator is used to analyze long-run effects of tornadoes in terms of displacement (reduced proportions of the poor and African Americans), abandonment (increased proportions of those groups) and neither or both.FindingsControlling for tornado risk, poverty and African American status are linked to greater tornado damages, as is wealth. Absent tornadoes, displacement and abandonment are both more likely to occur in urban settings and communities with high levels of vulnerability, while abandonment is more likely to occur in wealthy communities, consistent with on-going forces of segregation. Tornado damages significantly increase abandonment in vulnerable communities, thereby increasing the prevalence of poor African Americans in those communities. Therefore, the authors conclude that tornadoes contribute to on-going processes generating inequality by poverty/race.Originality/valueThe current paper is the first study connecting tornado damages to race and poverty. It is also the first study finding that tornadoes contribute to long-term processes of segregation and inequality.

Groupon: let's make a deal?

2015 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 26-38
Author(s):  
Susan White
Keyword(s):  
Social Media ◽  
Initial Public Offering ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Media Companies ◽  
Secondary Sources ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Public Offering ◽  
Media Firms ◽  
Term Performance

Synopsis Groupon, an online coupon company, was one of many companies that considered an initial public offering (IPO) during what might be a second technology/internet/social media IPO boom in 2011. Some companies chose to postpone their IPOs, while others took advantage of the media attention focussed on technology companies, and in particular, social media firms. Should investors hop on the tech IPO bandwagon, or hold off to better evaluate the long-term prospects of tech companies, and in particular social media companies? Would the valuation of Groupon justify an investment in IPO shares? Research methodology The case was researched from secondary sources, using Groupon's IPO filing information, news articles about the IPO and industry research sources, such as IBIS World. Relevant courses and levels This case is appropriate for an advanced undergraduate or MBA corporate finance or investment elective. Most introductory finance classes do not have the time to cover later chapters in a finance textbook, where information about IPOs is generally found. It could also be used at the end of a core finance course, where the instructor wanted to introduce this topic through a case study of a hard-to-value internet-based company to illustrate the difficulties in setting IPO prices. The case could also be used in an equity analysis class, an entrepreneurial finance class or an investment class, to spur discussion about valuing an internet company and choosing appropriate investments for pension fund investing. This case could also be used in a strategy class, focussing on the five forces question, and eliminating the valuation question. Theoretical basis There is a great deal of literature about IPOs and their long-term performance. An excellent source is Jay R. Ritter's research, http://bear.warrington.ufl.edu/ritter, which has a longer time period and more data than could be contained in this case. IPO puzzles include persistent undervaluing of IPOs; in other words, the offer price is lower than, and sometimes substantially lower than, the first day close price. A second issue is the generally poorer long-run performance of companies after their IPO when compared to similar firms that did not do an IPO.

House price index (HPI) and Covid-19 pandemic shocks: evidence from Turkey and Kazakhstan

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yeşim Aliefendioğlu ◽  
Harun Tanrivermis ◽  
Monsurat Ayojimi Salami
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Housing Prices ◽  
House Price ◽  
Monthly Basis ◽  
Data Set ◽  
House Price Index ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Asymmetric Pricing ◽  
Long Run

Purpose This paper aims to investigate asymmetric pricing behaviour and impact of coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic shocks on house price index (HPI) of Turkey and Kazakhstan. Design/methodology/approach Monthly HPIs and consumer price index (CPI) data ranges from 2010M1 to 2020M5 are used. This study uses a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag model for empirical analysis. Findings The findings of this study reveal that the Covid-19 pandemic exerted both long-run and short-run asymmetric relationship on HPI of Turkey while in Kazakhstan, the long-run impact of Covid-19 pandemic shock is symmetrical long-run positive effect is similar in both HPI markets. Research limitations/implications The main limitations of this study are the study scope and data set due to data constraint. Several other macroeconomic variables may affect housing prices; however, variables used in this study satisfy the focus of this study in the presence of data constraint. HPI and CPI variables were made available on monthly basis for a considerably longer period which guaranteed the ranges of data set used in this study. Practical implications Despite the limitation, this study provides necessary information for authorities and prospective investors in HPI to make a sound investment decision. Originality/value This is the first study that rigorously and simultaneously examines the pricing behaviour of Turkey and Kazakhstan HPIs in relation to the Covid-19 pandemic shocks at the regional level. HPI of Kazakhstan is recognized in the global real estate transparency index but the study is rare. The study contributes to regional studies on housing price by bridging this gap in the real estate literature.

scholarly journals Bad or good neighbours: a spatial financial contagion study

2020 ◽  
Vol 37 (4) ◽  
pp. 753-776
Author(s):  
Matteo Foglia ◽  
Alessandra Ortolano ◽  
Elisa Di Febo ◽  
Eliana Angelini
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Dimension ◽  
Credit Spread ◽  
Credit Spreads ◽  
Financial Contagion ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Credit Default ◽  
Short And Long Term ◽  
Dynamic Spatial Durbin Model

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to study the evolution of financial contagion between Eurozone banks, observing the credit default swaps (CDSs) market during the period 2009–2017. Design/methodology/approach The authors use a dynamic spatial Durbin model that enables to explore the direct and indirect effects over the short and long run and the transmission channels of the contagion. Findings The results show how contagion emerges through physical and financial market links between banks. This finding implies that a bank can fail because people expect other related financial institutions to fail as well (self-fulfilling crisis). The study provides statistically significant evidence of the presence of credit risk spillovers in CDS markets. The findings show that equity market dynamics of “neighbouring” banks are important factors in risk transmission. Originality/value The research provides a new contribution to the analysis of EZ banking risk contagion, studying CDS spread determinants both under a temporal and spatial dimension. Considering the cross-dependence of credit spreads, the study allowed to verify the non-linearity between the probability of default of a debtor and the observed credit spreads (credit spread puzzle). The authors provide information on the transmission mechanism of contagion and, on the effects among the largest banks. In fact, through the study of short- and long-term impacts, direct and indirect, the paper classify banks of systemic importance according to their effect on the financial system.

scholarly journals Using the ARDL-ECM approach to investigate the nexus between support price and wheat production

2019 ◽  
Vol 26 (1) ◽  
pp. 139-152
Author(s):  
Abbas Ali Chandio ◽  
Yuansheng Jiang ◽  
Abdul Rehman
Keyword(s):  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Wheat Production ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Long Term Effect ◽  
Ardl Approach ◽  
Support Price ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Effect Of Support

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to examine the effect of support price on wheat production in Pakistan during the period 1971–2016.Design/methodology/approachTo capture the effect of support price on wheat production, the authors estimated the long-run linkage by using the ARDL bounds testing approach to cointegration.FindingsThis study confirmed the presence of a positive and long-term effect of area under cultivation, support price and fertilizer consumption on wheat production through ARDL bounds test. The results showed that both in the long run and short run, support price plays an important role in the enhancement of wheat production. The authors also found that the coefficients of the area under cultivation and fertilizer consumption variables were statistically significant and positive both in the long run and short run.Originality/valueThe use of the ARDL approach that examines the long-run and short-run effects of support price on wheat production in Pakistan makes the current study unique. An emerging economic literature suggests that only limited research has been conducted in this area.

BSC and long-term deployment: an actors' perspective

2020 ◽  
Vol 21 (3) ◽  
pp. 383-396
Author(s):  
Pierre-Laurent Bescos ◽  
Aude Deville ◽  
Philippe Foulquier
Keyword(s):  
Balanced Scorecard ◽  
Single Case ◽  
Actor Network Theory ◽  
Insurance Company ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Balanced Scorecard ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Human Actors

PurposeThis paper examines the roles of the balanced scorecard (BSC) in a long-term perspective and with a large deployment along numerous hierarchical levels. For this purpose, we use a longitudinal analysis of an implementation in a mutual insurance company.Design/methodology/approachWe combine actor–network theory (ANT) with interventionist research (IVR) to analyze the interrelation between human and non-human actors. Our study is based on various materials like interviews, meeting reports, graphs and so on.FindingsThe BSC is considered as a non-human actor which influences the human actors and provides specific benefits from a long-term use, due to various roles played by this tool (a mediator role, completed by a role of translator and revealer).Research limitations/implicationsResearch based on larger cross-sectional studies are necessary to more deeply validate our results based on a single case study.Practical implicationsThis paper gives some insights on processes and on actors an organization can mobilize to maintain the benefits provided by a large BSC use in the long run.Originality/valueIn line with the ANT concepts, our main contribution is to explain the outcomes of an innovation in management accounting by the consequences of adaptation mechanisms grounded on actors, translations, alliances and trials of strength.

Dynamic Nexuses between Macroeconomic Variables and Sectoral Stock Indices: Reflection from Indian Manufacturing Industry

2020 ◽  
Vol 45 (3) ◽  
pp. 239-269
Author(s):  
Sumit Kumar Maji ◽  
Arindam Laha ◽  
Debasish Sur
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
Manufacturing Industry ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Wholesale Price ◽  
Real Effective Exchange Rate ◽  
Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Economic Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Stock Indices

Determination of significant sector specific macroeconomic factors under the board manufacturing industry is an important task. In Indian context, using the monthly data on five major manufacturing sector specific indices (such as BSE-Basic Materials, BSE-Consumer Discretionary Goods and Services, BSE-Fast Moving Consumer Goods, BSE-Health Care and BSE-Industrials) and the macroeconomic variables (gold price, index of industrial production, wholesale price index, money supply, foreign portfolio investment ratio (FPIR), rate of interest, real effective exchange rate and crude oil price and economic policy uncertainty) for the period September, 2005 to November, 2016, the present study attempted to explore the significant sector specific macroeconomic variables in long run as well as short run. The empirical results obtained by applying the ARDL-UECM model suggested that economic policy uncertainty, FPIR and price factor were observed to be the most important determinants of all the five sectoral stock indices for the study period.

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