Vegetation green‐up date is more sensitive to permafrost degradation than climate change in spring across the northern permafrost region

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jian Wang ◽  
Desheng Liu
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Permafrost Region ◽  
Permafrost Degradation

Co-production of permafrost degradation impact assessment for permafrost environmental utilization and conservation

Impact ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 (6) ◽  
pp. 29-31
Author(s):  
Yoshihiro Iijima
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Associate Professor ◽  
Living Environment ◽  
Permafrost Region ◽  
Permafrost Degradation ◽  
Local Populations ◽  
Local Residents ◽  
Regions Of Russia ◽  
Permafrost Regions

Permafrost plays a hugely significant role in sustaining the global climate for many reasons. As it thaws, gases (usually methane and carbon dioxide) that have lain trapped underneath the ice for millennia are released. These gases then enter the atmosphere and accelerate global warming which leads to more permafrost degradation and it eventually becomes a problem which exacerbates itself. In recent times, the warming and thawing of the surface layer of the permafrost region in northeastern Eurasia has caused serious impacts on the living environment of local residents. In many ways, the thawing of permafrost can be seen as a new natural disaster and, as such, it requires understanding from local populations to put measures in place to mitigate the effects. Associate Professor Yoshihiro Iijima is part of a international team of researchers investigating the effects of climate change on the permafrost regions of Russia and Mongolia. The findings could help local populations introduce conservation activities to their societies

Abrupt changes across the Arctic permafrost region endanger northern development

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bernardo Teufel ◽  
Laxmi Sushama
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Convective Precipitation ◽  
Permafrost Region ◽  
Permafrost Degradation ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Modelling Studies ◽  
Extensive Degradation

<p>Extensive degradation of near-surface permafrost is projected during the 21st century, which will have detrimental effects on northern communities, ecosystems and engineering systems. This degradation will expectedly have consequences for many processes, which most previous modelling studies suggested would occur gradually. Here, we project that soil moisture will decrease abruptly (within a few months) in response to permafrost degradation over large areas of the present-day permafrost region, based on analysis of transient climate change simulations performed using a state-of-the-art regional climate model. This regime shift is reflected in abrupt increases in summer near-surface temperature and convective precipitation, and decreases in relative humidity and surface runoff. Of particular relevance to northern systems are changes to the bearing capacity of the soil due to increased drainage, increases in the potential for intense rainfall events and increases in lightning frequency, which combined with increases in forest fuel combustibility are projected to abruptly and substantially increase the severity of wildfires, which constitute one of the greatest risks to northern ecosystems, communities and infrastructure. The fact that these changes are projected to occur abruptly further increases the challenges associated with climate change adaptation and potential retrofitting measures.</p>

scholarly journals Debris Flows Occurrence in the Semiarid Central Andes under Climate Change Scenario

Geosciences ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 43
Author(s):  
Stella M. Moreiras ◽  
Sergio A. Sepúlveda ◽  
Mariana Correas-González ◽  
Carolina Lauro ◽  
Iván Vergara ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Debris Flows ◽  
Environmental Changes ◽  
Urban Expansion ◽  
Central Andes ◽  
Semiarid Region ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Permafrost Degradation ◽  
Mountain Areas ◽  
Negative Impacts

This review paper compiles research related to debris flows and hyperconcentrated flows in the central Andes (30°–33° S), updating the knowledge of these phenomena in this semiarid region. Continuous records of these phenomena are lacking through the Andean region; intense precipitations, sudden snowmelt, increased temperatures on high relief mountain areas, and permafrost degradation are related to violent flow discharges. Documented catastrophic consequences related to these geoclimatic events highlight the need to improve their understanding in order to prepare the Andean communities for this latent danger. An amplified impact is expected not only due to environmental changes potentially linked to climate change but also due to rising exposure linked to urban expansion toward more susceptible or unstable areas. This review highlights as well the need for the implementation of preventive measures to reduce the negative impacts and vulnerability of the Andean communities in the global warming context.

4D-Quantification of alpine permafrost degradation in a bedrock ridge using multiple inversion schemes and deformation measurements

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maike Offer ◽  
Riccardo Scandroglio ◽  
Daniel Draebing ◽  
Michael Krautblatter
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Mechanical Stability ◽  
Regularization Parameter ◽  
Time Lapse ◽  
Permafrost Degradation ◽  
Thermal Dynamics ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Data Error ◽  
Near Surface Geophysics ◽  
Thawing Rate

<p>Warming of permafrost in steep rock walls decreases their mechanical stability and could triggers rockfalls and rockslides. However, the direct link between climate change and permafrost degradation is seldom quantified with precise monitoring techniques and long-term time series. Where boreholes are not possible, laboratory-calibrated Electrical Resistivity Tomography (ERT) is presumably the most accurate quantitative permafrost monitoring technique providing a sensitive record for frozen vs. unfrozen bedrock. Recently, 4D inversions allow also quantification of frozen bedrock extension and of its changes with time (Scandroglio et al., in review).</p><p>In this study we (i) evaluate the influence of the inversion parameters on the volumes and (ii) connect the volumetric changes with measured mechanical consequences.</p><p>The ERT time-serie was recorded between 2006 and 2019 in steep bedrock at the permafrost affected Steintälli Ridge (3100 m asl). Accurately positioned 205 drilled-in steel electrodes in 5 parallel lines across the rock ridge have been repeatedly measured with similar hardware and are compared to laboratory temperature-resistivity (T–ρ) calibration of water-saturated samples from the field. Inversions were conducted using the open-source software BERT for the first time with the aim of estimating permafrost volumetric changes over a decade.</p><p>(i) Here we present a sensitivity analysis of the outcomes by testing various plausible inversion set-ups. Results are computed with different input data filters, data error model, regularization parameter (λ), model roughness reweighting and time-lapse constraints. The model with the largest permafrost degradation was obtained without any time-lapse constraints, whereas constraining each model with the prior measurement results in the smallest degradation. Important changes are also connected to the data error estimation, while other setting seems to have less influence on the frozen volume. All inversions confirmed a drastic permafrost degradation in the last 13 years with an average reduction of 3.900±600 m<sup>3</sup> (60±10% of the starting volume), well in agreement with the measured air temperatures increase.</p><p>(ii) Average bedrock thawing rate of ~300 m<sup>3</sup>/a is expected to significantly influence the stability of the ridge. Resistivity changes are especially evident on the south-west exposed side and in the core of the ridge and are here connected to deformations measured with tape extensometer, in order to precisely estimate the mechanical consequences of bedrock warming.</p><p>In summary, the strong degradation of permafrost in the last decade it’s here confirmed since inversion settings only have minor influence on volume quantification. Internal thermal dynamics need correlation with measured external deformation for a correct interpretation of stability consequences. These results are a fundamental benchmark for evaluating mountain permafrost degradation in relation to climate change and demonstrate the key role of temperature-calibrated 4D ERT.</p><p> </p><p>Reference:</p><p>Scandroglio, R. et al. (in review) ‘4D-Quantification of alpine permafrost degradation in steep rock walls using a laboratory-calibrated ERT approach’, <em>Near Surface Geophysics</em>.</p>

scholarly journals Seasonal shifts in export of DOC and nutrients from burned and unburned peatland-rich catchments, Northwest Territories, Canada

2018 ◽  
Vol 22 (8) ◽  
pp. 4455-4472 ◽  
Author(s):  
Katheryn Burd ◽  
Suzanne E. Tank ◽  
Nicole Dion ◽  
William L. Quinton ◽  
Christopher Spence ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Mineral Soil ◽  
Fire Regimes ◽  
Forest Litter ◽  
Early Spring ◽  
Permafrost Region ◽  
Spring Period ◽  
Discontinuous Permafrost ◽  
Run Off ◽  
Spring Freshet

Abstract. Boreal peatlands are major catchment sources of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and nutrients and thus strongly regulate the landscape carbon balance, aquatic food webs, and downstream water quality. Climate change is likely to influence catchment solute yield directly through climatic controls on run-off generation, but also indirectly through altered disturbance regimes. In this study we monitored water chemistry from early spring until fall at the outlets of a 321 km2 catchment that burned 3 years prior to the study and a 134 km2 undisturbed catchment. Both catchments were located in the discontinuous permafrost zone of boreal western Canada and had  ∼  60 % peatland cover. The two catchments had strong similarities in the timing of DOC and nutrient yields, but a few differences were consistent with anticipated effects of wildfire based on peatland porewater analysis. The 4-week spring period, particularly the rising limb of the spring freshet, was crucial for accurate characterization of the seasonal solute yield from both catchments. The spring period was responsible for  ∼  65 % of the seasonal DOC and nitrogen and for  ∼  85 % of the phosphorous yield. The rising limb of the spring freshet was associated with high phosphorous concentrations and DOC of distinctly high aromaticity and molecular weight. Shifts in stream DOC concentrations and aromaticity outside the early spring period were consistent with shifts in relative streamflow contribution from precipitation-like water in the spring to mineral soil groundwater in the summer, with consistent relative contributions from organic soil porewater. Radiocarbon content (14C) of DOC at the outlets was modern throughout May to September (fraction modern carbon, fM: 0.99–1.05) but likely reflected a mix of aged DOC, e.g. porewater DOC from permafrost (fM: 0.65–0.85) and non-permafrost peatlands (fM: 0.95–1.00), with modern bomb-influenced DOC, e.g. DOC leached from forest litter (fM: 1.05–1.10). The burned catchment had significantly increased total phosphorous (TP) yield and also had greater DOC yield during summer which was characterized by a greater contribution from aged DOC. Overall, however, our results suggest that DOC composition and yield from peatland-rich catchments in the discontinuous permafrost region likely is more sensitive to climate change through impacts on run-off generation rather than through altered fire regimes.

scholarly journals Consequences of permafrost degradation for Arctic infrastructure – bridging the model gap between regional and engineering scales

2021 ◽  
Vol 15 (5) ◽  
pp. 2451-2471
Author(s):  
Thomas Schneider von Deimling ◽  
Hanna Lee ◽  
Thomas Ingeman-Nielsen ◽  
Sebastian Westermann ◽  
Vladimir Romanovsky ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Warming ◽  
Strong Increase ◽  
Permafrost Degradation ◽  
Key Factors ◽  
The Road ◽  
Model Based ◽  
Linear Infrastructure ◽  
Continuous Permafrost ◽  
Gravel Road

Abstract. Infrastructure built on perennially frozen ice-rich ground relies heavily on thermally stable subsurface conditions. Climate-warming-induced deepening of ground thaw puts such infrastructure at risk of failure. For better assessing the risk of large-scale future damage to Arctic infrastructure, improved strategies for model-based approaches are urgently needed. We used the laterally coupled 1D heat conduction model CryoGrid3 to simulate permafrost degradation affected by linear infrastructure. We present a case study of a gravel road built on continuous permafrost (Dalton highway, Alaska) and forced our model under historical and strong future warming conditions (following the RCP8.5 scenario). As expected, the presence of a gravel road in the model leads to higher net heat flux entering the ground compared to a reference run without infrastructure and thus a higher rate of thaw. Further, our results suggest that road failure is likely a consequence of lateral destabilisation due to talik formation in the ground beside the road rather than a direct consequence of a top-down thawing and deepening of the active layer below the road centre. In line with previous studies, we identify enhanced snow accumulation and ponding (both a consequence of infrastructure presence) as key factors for increased soil temperatures and road degradation. Using differing horizontal model resolutions we show that it is possible to capture these key factors and their impact on thawing dynamics with a low number of lateral model units, underlining the potential of our model approach for use in pan-Arctic risk assessments. Our results suggest a general two-phase behaviour of permafrost degradation: an initial phase of slow and gradual thaw, followed by a strong increase in thawing rates after the exceedance of a critical ground warming. The timing of this transition and the magnitude of thaw rate acceleration differ strongly between undisturbed tundra and infrastructure-affected permafrost ground. Our model results suggest that current model-based approaches which do not explicitly take into account infrastructure in their designs are likely to strongly underestimate the timing of future Arctic infrastructure failure. By using a laterally coupled 1D model to simulate linear infrastructure, we infer results in line with outcomes from more complex 2D and 3D models, but our model's computational efficiency allows us to account for long-term climate change impacts on infrastructure from permafrost degradation. Our model simulations underline that it is crucial to consider climate warming when planning and constructing infrastructure on permafrost as a transition from a stable to a highly unstable state can well occur within the service lifetime (about 30 years) of such a construction. Such a transition can even be triggered in the coming decade by climate change for infrastructure built on high northern latitude continuous permafrost that displays cold and relatively stable conditions today.

scholarly journals Lithologic, geomorphic, and permafrost controls on recent landsliding in the Alaska Range

Geosphere ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 16 (6) ◽  
pp. 1479-1494
Author(s):  
A.I. Patton ◽  
S.R. Rathburn ◽  
D. Capps ◽  
R.A. Brown ◽  
J.S. Singleton
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Shear Strength ◽  
Volcanic Rocks ◽  
Bimodal Distribution ◽  
Slope Instability ◽  
Landslide Inventory ◽  
Permafrost Degradation ◽  
Alaska Range ◽  
Study Region ◽  
Unconsolidated Material

Abstract Because landslide regimes are likely to change in response to climate change in upcoming decades, the need for mechanistic understanding of landslide initiation and up-to-date landslide inventory data is greater than ever. We conducted surficial geologic mapping and compiled a comprehensive landslide inventory of the Denali National Park road corridor to identify geologic and geomorphic controls on landslide initiation in the Alaska Range. The supplemental geologic map refines and improves the resolution of mapping in the study area and adds emphasis on surficial units, distinguishing multiple glacial deposits, hillslope deposits, landslides, and alluvial units that were previously grouped. Results indicate that slope angle, lithology, and thawing ice-rich permafrost exert first-order controls on landslide occurrence. The majority (84%) of inventoried landslides are <0.01 km2 in area and occur most frequently on slopes with a bimodal distribution of slope angles with peaks at 18° and 28°. Of the 85 mapped landslides, a disproportionate number occurred in unconsolidated sediments and in felsic volcanic rocks. Weathering of feldspar within volcanic rocks and subsequent interactions with groundwater produced clay minerals that promote landslide initiation by impeding subsurface conductivity and reducing shear strength. Landslides also preferentially initiated within permafrost, where modeled mean decadal ground temperature is −0.2 ± 0.04 °C on average, and active layer thickness is ∼1 m. Landslides that initiated within permafrost occurred on slope angles ∼7° lower than landslides on seasonally thawed hillslopes. The bimodal distribution of slope angles indicates that there are two primary drivers of landslide failure within discontinuous permafrost zones: (1) atmospheric events (snowmelt or rainfall) that saturate the subsurface, as is commonly observed in temperate settings, and (2) shallow-angle landslides (<20° slopes) in permafrost demonstrate that permafrost and ice thaw are also important triggering mechanisms in the study region. Melting permafrost reduces substrate shear strength by lowering cohesion and friction along ice boundaries. Increased permafrost degradation associated with climate change brings heightened focus to low-angle slopes regionally as well as in high-latitude areas worldwide. Areas normally considered of low landslide potential will be more susceptible to shallow-angle landslides in the future. Our landslide inventory and analyses also suggest that landslides throughout the Alaska Range and similar climatic zones are most likely to occur where low-cohesion unconsolidated material is available or where alteration of volcanic rocks produces sufficient clay content to reduce rock and/or sediment strength. Permafrost thaw is likely to exacerbate slope instability in these materials and expand areas impacted by landslides.

Comparing streamflow analysis and remote sensing observations to assess climate change impact on permafrost degradation

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
flore sergeant ◽  
rene therrien ◽  
ludovic oudin ◽  
anne jost ◽  
françois anctil
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Remote Sensing ◽  
Satellite Images ◽  
Ground Subsidence ◽  
Permafrost Degradation ◽  
Analysis Method ◽  
Temporal And Spatial ◽  
Thawing Rate ◽  
Permafrost Thawing

<p><strong>ABSTRACT</strong></p><p>Due to polar amplification of climate change, high latitudes are warming up twice as fast as the rest of the world. This warming leads to permafrost thawing, which induces greenhouse gases release, ground subsidence, and modifies surface and subsurface hydrologic regimes. Ground subsidence in turn affects local infrastructure stability. In this context and to better manage future infrastructures and water resources of northern regions, it is crucial to be able to evaluate the thawing rate of permafrost.</p><p>In many Arctic zones, the frequency of environmental disturbances caused by permafrost thawing increases so rapidly that maintaining an accurate inventory of the state of permafrost at a regional scale represents a great challenge. Moreover, depending on the study area and the permafrost ice content, the thawing rate can vary from millimetres to decimeters per year. Another current challenge is the limited availability of temporal and spatial data on permafrost thawing rates.</p><p>To address the above challenges, two indirect methods are used: (1) Arctic river streamflow analysis method and (2) Ground settlement analysis method via satellite image observation. Both methods use free-access data that have an exceptionally large temporal and spatial coverage capacity for such a poorly instrumented region. The first method analyses the recession events’ behavior of Arctic streams and relates those behaviors to changes in catchment-scale depth to permafrost that influences storage-discharge dynamics. This work differs from previous hydrological system analysis in northern systems in that it looks at long-term trends (>10 years) in recession intercept to assess permafrost dynamics, while other studies looked at recession characteristics within a season to assess active-layer dynamics. The second method analyses satellite images of the Arctic ground and associates surface elevation change to long-term permafrost degradation due to climate change.</p><p>Both methods have already been tested through multiple local investigations and gave promising results. The recession flow analysis method has been applied to Yukon river basin, northern Sweden basins and Lena basin in Siberia, while the remote sensing analysis method has been tested on Baffin Island, Herschel Island in Canada, North Slope of Alaska and the Tibetan Plateau. However, no comparative study and no large-scale application have been conducted so far. Extending the analysis to hundreds of Arctic basins and comparing the resulting permafrost-thawing rate values from both methods constitute the innovative aspect of this project.</p><p> </p><p>KEY WORDS: climate change, permafrost thawing, storage-discharge dynamics, ground subsidence, satellite images</p>

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