scholarly journals Lithologic, geomorphic, and permafrost controls on recent landsliding in the Alaska Range

Geosphere ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 16 (6) ◽  
pp. 1479-1494
Author(s):  
A.I. Patton ◽  
S.R. Rathburn ◽  
D. Capps ◽  
R.A. Brown ◽  
J.S. Singleton
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Shear Strength ◽  
Volcanic Rocks ◽  
Bimodal Distribution ◽  
Slope Instability ◽  
Landslide Inventory ◽  
Permafrost Degradation ◽  
Alaska Range ◽  
Study Region ◽  
Unconsolidated Material

Abstract Because landslide regimes are likely to change in response to climate change in upcoming decades, the need for mechanistic understanding of landslide initiation and up-to-date landslide inventory data is greater than ever. We conducted surficial geologic mapping and compiled a comprehensive landslide inventory of the Denali National Park road corridor to identify geologic and geomorphic controls on landslide initiation in the Alaska Range. The supplemental geologic map refines and improves the resolution of mapping in the study area and adds emphasis on surficial units, distinguishing multiple glacial deposits, hillslope deposits, landslides, and alluvial units that were previously grouped. Results indicate that slope angle, lithology, and thawing ice-rich permafrost exert first-order controls on landslide occurrence. The majority (84%) of inventoried landslides are <0.01 km2 in area and occur most frequently on slopes with a bimodal distribution of slope angles with peaks at 18° and 28°. Of the 85 mapped landslides, a disproportionate number occurred in unconsolidated sediments and in felsic volcanic rocks. Weathering of feldspar within volcanic rocks and subsequent interactions with groundwater produced clay minerals that promote landslide initiation by impeding subsurface conductivity and reducing shear strength. Landslides also preferentially initiated within permafrost, where modeled mean decadal ground temperature is −0.2 ± 0.04 °C on average, and active layer thickness is ∼1 m. Landslides that initiated within permafrost occurred on slope angles ∼7° lower than landslides on seasonally thawed hillslopes. The bimodal distribution of slope angles indicates that there are two primary drivers of landslide failure within discontinuous permafrost zones: (1) atmospheric events (snowmelt or rainfall) that saturate the subsurface, as is commonly observed in temperate settings, and (2) shallow-angle landslides (<20° slopes) in permafrost demonstrate that permafrost and ice thaw are also important triggering mechanisms in the study region. Melting permafrost reduces substrate shear strength by lowering cohesion and friction along ice boundaries. Increased permafrost degradation associated with climate change brings heightened focus to low-angle slopes regionally as well as in high-latitude areas worldwide. Areas normally considered of low landslide potential will be more susceptible to shallow-angle landslides in the future. Our landslide inventory and analyses also suggest that landslides throughout the Alaska Range and similar climatic zones are most likely to occur where low-cohesion unconsolidated material is available or where alteration of volcanic rocks produces sufficient clay content to reduce rock and/or sediment strength. Permafrost thaw is likely to exacerbate slope instability in these materials and expand areas impacted by landslides.

scholarly journals Rapid movement of frozen debris-lobes: implications for permafrost degradation and slope instability in the south-central Brooks Range, Alaska

2012 ◽  
Vol 12 (5) ◽  
pp. 1521-1537 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. P. Daanen ◽  
G. Grosse ◽  
M. M. Darrow ◽  
T. D. Hamilton ◽  
B. M. Jones
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Mass Movement ◽  
Time Lapse ◽  
Slope Instability ◽  
Pipeline System ◽  
Permafrost Degradation ◽  
The South ◽  
Brooks Range ◽  
The North ◽  
South Central

Abstract. We present the results of a reconnaissance investigation of unusual debris mass-movement features on permafrost slopes that pose a potential infrastructure hazard in the south-central Brooks Range, Alaska. For the purpose of this paper, we describe these features as frozen debris-lobes. We focus on the characterisation of frozen debris-lobes as indicators of various movement processes using ground-based surveys, remote sensing, field and laboratory measurements, and time-lapse observations of frozen debris-lobe systems along the Dalton Highway. Currently, some frozen debris-lobes exceed 100 m in width, 20 m in height and 1000 m in length. Our results indicate that frozen debris-lobes have responded to climate change by becoming increasingly active during the last decades, resulting in rapid downslope movement. Movement indicators observed in the field include toppling trees, slumps and scarps, detachment slides, striation marks on frozen sediment slabs, recently buried trees and other vegetation, mudflows, and large cracks in the lobe surface. The type and diversity of observed indicators suggest that the lobes likely consist of a frozen debris core, are subject to creep, and seasonally unfrozen surface sediment is transported in warm seasons by creep, slumping, viscous flow, blockfall and leaching of fines, and in cold seasons by creep and sliding of frozen sediment slabs. Ground-based measurements on one frozen debris-lobe over three years (2008–2010) revealed average movement rates of approximately 1 cm day−1, which is substantially larger than rates measured in historic aerial photography from the 1950s to 1980s. We discuss how climate change may further influence frozen debris-lobe dynamics, potentially accelerating their movement. We highlight the potential direct hazard that one of the studied frozen debris-lobes may pose in the coming years and decades to the nearby Trans Alaska Pipeline System and the Dalton Highway, the main artery for transportation between Interior Alaska and the North Slope.

The implications of climate change on residential water use: a micro-scale analysis of Portland (OR), USA

2012 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
pp. 225-238 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vivek Shandas ◽  
Meenakshi Rao ◽  
Moriah McSharry McGrath
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Use ◽  
Environmental Sustainability ◽  
Water Conservation ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Metropolitan Region ◽  
Study Region ◽  
Residential Water Use ◽  
Residential Water

Social and behavioral research is crucial for securing environmental sustainability and improving human living environments. Although the majority of people now live in urban areas, we have limited empirical evidence of the anticipated behavioral response to climate change. Using empirical data on daily household residential water use and temperature, our research examines the implications of future climate conditions on water conservation behavior in 501 households within the Portland (OR) metropolitan region. We ask whether and how much change in ambient temperatures impact residential household water use, while controlling for taxlot characteristics. Based on our results, we develop a spatially explicit description about the changes in future water use for the study region using a downscaled future climate scenario. The results suggest that behavioral responses are mediated by an interaction of household structural attributes, and magnitude and temporal variability of weather parameters. These findings have implications for the way natural resource managers and planning bureaus prepare for and adapt to future consequences of climate change.

scholarly journals Strong controls of daily minimum temperature on the autumn photosynthetic phenology of subtropical vegetation in China

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Peixin Ren ◽  
Zelin Liu ◽  
Xiaolu Zhou ◽  
Changhui Peng ◽  
Jingfeng Xiao ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Minimum Temperature ◽  
Vegetation Index ◽  
Climatic Factors ◽  
Time Lag ◽  
Evergreen Forest ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Daily Minimum Temperature ◽  
Study Region ◽  
Cumulative Precipitation

Abstract Background Vegetation phenology research has largely focused on temperate deciduous forests, thus limiting our understanding of the response of evergreen vegetation to climate change in tropical and subtropical regions. Results Using satellite solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) and MODIS enhanced vegetation index (EVI) data, we applied two methods to evaluate temporal and spatial patterns of the end of the growing season (EGS) in subtropical vegetation in China, and analyze the dependence of EGS on preseason maximum and minimum temperatures as well as cumulative precipitation. Our results indicated that the averaged EGS derived from the SIF and EVI based on the two methods (dynamic threshold method and derivative method) was later than that derived from gross primary productivity (GPP) based on the eddy covariance technique, and the time-lag for EGSsif and EGSevi was approximately 2 weeks and 4 weeks, respectively. We found that EGS was positively correlated with preseason minimum temperature and cumulative precipitation (accounting for more than 73% and 62% of the study areas, respectively), but negatively correlated with preseason maximum temperature (accounting for more than 59% of the study areas). In addition, EGS was more sensitive to the changes in the preseason minimum temperature than to other climatic factors, and an increase in the preseason minimum temperature significantly delayed the EGS in evergreen forests, shrub and grassland. Conclusions Our results indicated that the SIF outperformed traditional vegetation indices in capturing the autumn photosynthetic phenology of evergreen forest in the subtropical region of China. We found that minimum temperature plays a significant role in determining autumn photosynthetic phenology in the study region. These findings contribute to improving our understanding of the response of the EGS to climate change in subtropical vegetation of China, and provide a new perspective for accurately evaluating the role played by evergreen vegetation in the regional carbon budget.

scholarly journals Phenological Analysis of Sub-Alpine Forest on Jeju Island, South Korea, Using Data Fusion of Landsat and MODIS Products

Forests ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 286
Author(s):  
Sang-Jin Park ◽  
Seung-Gyu Jeong ◽  
Yong Park ◽  
Sang-hyuk Kim ◽  
Dong-kun Lee ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Remote Sensing ◽  
Data Fusion ◽  
Vegetation Index ◽  
Normalized Difference Vegetation Index ◽  
Fusion Model ◽  
Fusion Algorithm ◽  
Study Region ◽  
Modis Imagery ◽  
Increasing Temperature

Climate change poses a disproportionate risk to alpine ecosystems. Effective monitoring of forest phenological responses to climate change is critical for predicting and managing threats to alpine populations. Remote sensing can be used to monitor forest communities in dynamic landscapes for responses to climate change at the species level. Spatiotemporal fusion technology using remote sensing images is an effective way of detecting gradual phenological changes over time and seasonal responses to climate change. The spatial and temporal adaptive reflectance fusion model (STARFM) is a widely used data fusion algorithm for Landsat and MODIS imagery. This study aims to identify forest phenological characteristics and changes at the species–community level by fusing spatiotemporal data from Landsat and MODIS imagery. We fused 18 images from March to November for 2000, 2010, and 2019. (The resulting STARFM-fused images exhibited accuracies of RMSE = 0.0402 and R2 = 0.795. We found that the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) value increased with time, which suggests that increasing temperature due to climate change has affected the start of the growth season in the study region. From this study, we found that increasing temperature affects the phenology of these regions, and forest management strategies like monitoring phenology using remote sensing technique should evaluate the effects of climate change.

scholarly journals Debris Flows Occurrence in the Semiarid Central Andes under Climate Change Scenario

Geosciences ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 43
Author(s):  
Stella M. Moreiras ◽  
Sergio A. Sepúlveda ◽  
Mariana Correas-González ◽  
Carolina Lauro ◽  
Iván Vergara ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Debris Flows ◽  
Environmental Changes ◽  
Urban Expansion ◽  
Central Andes ◽  
Semiarid Region ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Permafrost Degradation ◽  
Mountain Areas ◽  
Negative Impacts

This review paper compiles research related to debris flows and hyperconcentrated flows in the central Andes (30°–33° S), updating the knowledge of these phenomena in this semiarid region. Continuous records of these phenomena are lacking through the Andean region; intense precipitations, sudden snowmelt, increased temperatures on high relief mountain areas, and permafrost degradation are related to violent flow discharges. Documented catastrophic consequences related to these geoclimatic events highlight the need to improve their understanding in order to prepare the Andean communities for this latent danger. An amplified impact is expected not only due to environmental changes potentially linked to climate change but also due to rising exposure linked to urban expansion toward more susceptible or unstable areas. This review highlights as well the need for the implementation of preventive measures to reduce the negative impacts and vulnerability of the Andean communities in the global warming context.

4D-Quantification of alpine permafrost degradation in a bedrock ridge using multiple inversion schemes and deformation measurements

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maike Offer ◽  
Riccardo Scandroglio ◽  
Daniel Draebing ◽  
Michael Krautblatter
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Mechanical Stability ◽  
Regularization Parameter ◽  
Time Lapse ◽  
Permafrost Degradation ◽  
Thermal Dynamics ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Data Error ◽  
Near Surface Geophysics ◽  
Thawing Rate

<p>Warming of permafrost in steep rock walls decreases their mechanical stability and could triggers rockfalls and rockslides. However, the direct link between climate change and permafrost degradation is seldom quantified with precise monitoring techniques and long-term time series. Where boreholes are not possible, laboratory-calibrated Electrical Resistivity Tomography (ERT) is presumably the most accurate quantitative permafrost monitoring technique providing a sensitive record for frozen vs. unfrozen bedrock. Recently, 4D inversions allow also quantification of frozen bedrock extension and of its changes with time (Scandroglio et al., in review).</p><p>In this study we (i) evaluate the influence of the inversion parameters on the volumes and (ii) connect the volumetric changes with measured mechanical consequences.</p><p>The ERT time-serie was recorded between 2006 and 2019 in steep bedrock at the permafrost affected Steintälli Ridge (3100 m asl). Accurately positioned 205 drilled-in steel electrodes in 5 parallel lines across the rock ridge have been repeatedly measured with similar hardware and are compared to laboratory temperature-resistivity (T–ρ) calibration of water-saturated samples from the field. Inversions were conducted using the open-source software BERT for the first time with the aim of estimating permafrost volumetric changes over a decade.</p><p>(i) Here we present a sensitivity analysis of the outcomes by testing various plausible inversion set-ups. Results are computed with different input data filters, data error model, regularization parameter (λ), model roughness reweighting and time-lapse constraints. The model with the largest permafrost degradation was obtained without any time-lapse constraints, whereas constraining each model with the prior measurement results in the smallest degradation. Important changes are also connected to the data error estimation, while other setting seems to have less influence on the frozen volume. All inversions confirmed a drastic permafrost degradation in the last 13 years with an average reduction of 3.900±600 m<sup>3</sup> (60±10% of the starting volume), well in agreement with the measured air temperatures increase.</p><p>(ii) Average bedrock thawing rate of ~300 m<sup>3</sup>/a is expected to significantly influence the stability of the ridge. Resistivity changes are especially evident on the south-west exposed side and in the core of the ridge and are here connected to deformations measured with tape extensometer, in order to precisely estimate the mechanical consequences of bedrock warming.</p><p>In summary, the strong degradation of permafrost in the last decade it’s here confirmed since inversion settings only have minor influence on volume quantification. Internal thermal dynamics need correlation with measured external deformation for a correct interpretation of stability consequences. These results are a fundamental benchmark for evaluating mountain permafrost degradation in relation to climate change and demonstrate the key role of temperature-calibrated 4D ERT.</p><p> </p><p>Reference:</p><p>Scandroglio, R. et al. (in review) ‘4D-Quantification of alpine permafrost degradation in steep rock walls using a laboratory-calibrated ERT approach’, <em>Near Surface Geophysics</em>.</p>

scholarly journals Detecting the Dominant Cause of Streamflow Decline in the Loess Plateau of China Based onthe Latest Budyko Equation

Water ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (9) ◽  
pp. 1277 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jing Zhao ◽  
Shengzhi Huang ◽  
Qiang Huang ◽  
Hao Wang ◽  
Guoyong Leng
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Loess Plateau ◽  
Human Activities ◽  
Soil Conservation ◽  
Potential Evaporation ◽  
The Loess Plateau ◽  
Study Region ◽  
Water And Soil Conservation ◽  
The Wei River Basin ◽  
Streamflow Change

Quantifying the relative contributions of climate variability and human activity to streamflow change is important for effective water resource use and management. Four sub-catchments of the Wei River Basin (WRB) in the Loess Plateau in China were selected as the study region, where the evolution of parameter α from the latest Budyko equation (Wang-Tang equation) was explored using an 11-year moving window. The elasticity of streamflow was derived from the climatic aridity index, represented by the ratio of annual potential evaporation ( E P ) to annual precipitation ( P ), and catchment characteristics as represented by α . The effects of climate change and human activities on streamflow change during 1971–2010 were quantified with climate elasticity and decomposition methods. The contributions of different types of human activities to streamflow were further empirically determined using the water and soil conservation method. Results indicate that (1) under the same climate condition ( P and E P ), a higher value of α caused an increase in evaporation rate ( E / P ) and a decrease in runoff. Changes in these hydrological variables led to a subsequent reduction in streamflow in the WRB; (2) The absolute value of the precipitation elasticity was larger than the potential evaporation elasticity, indicating that streamflow change was more sensitive to precipitation; (3) The results based on the two methods were consistent. Climate change and human activities contributed to the decrease in streamflow by 29% and 71%, respectively, suggesting that human activities have exerted more profound impacts on streamflow in the study region; (4) Contributions of different water and soil conservation measures to streamflow reduction were calculated and sorted in descending order: Irrigation, industrial and domestic consumption, terrace, afforestation, reservoirs, check-dams, then grass-planting.

scholarly journals Reconstruction of recent climate change in Alaska from the Aurora Peak ice core, central Alaska

2015 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 217-226 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Tsushima ◽  
S. Matoba ◽  
T. Shiraiwa ◽  
S. Okamoto ◽  
H. Sasaki ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Accumulation Rate ◽  
Ice Core ◽  
Chemical Species ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Gulf Of Alaska ◽  
Temporal Variations ◽  
Storm Activity ◽  
Alaska Range ◽  
Recent Climate

Abstract. A 180.17 m ice core was drilled at Aurora Peak in the central part of the Alaska Range, Alaska, in 2008 to allow reconstruction of centennial-scale climate change in the northern North Pacific. The 10 m depth temperature in the borehole was −2.2 °C, which corresponded to the annual mean air temperature at the drilling site. In this ice core, there were many melt–refreeze layers due to high temperature and/or strong insolation during summer seasons. We analyzed stable hydrogen isotopes (δD) and chemical species in the ice core. The ice core age was determined by annual counts of δD and seasonal cycles of Na+, and we used reference horizons of tritium peaks in 1963 and 1964, major volcanic eruptions of Mount Spurr in 1992 and Mount Katmai in 1912, and a large forest fire in 2004 as age controls. Here, we show that the chronology of the Aurora Peak ice core from 95.61 m to the top corresponds to the period from 1900 to the summer season of 2008, with a dating error of ± 3 years. We estimated that the mean accumulation rate from 1997 to 2007 (except for 2004) was 2.04 m w.eq. yr-1. Our results suggest that temporal variations in δD and annual accumulation rates are strongly related to shifts in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation index (PDOI). The remarkable increase in annual precipitation since the 1970s has likely been the result of enhanced storm activity associated with shifts in the PDOI during winter in the Gulf of Alaska.

scholarly journals Climate Change Impacts Assessment on Wine-Growing Bioclimatic Transition Areas

Agriculture ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (12) ◽  
pp. 605
Author(s):  
Alba Piña-Rey ◽  
Estefanía González-Fernández ◽  
María Fernández-González ◽  
Mª. Nieves Lorenzo ◽  
Fco. Javier Rodríguez-Rajo
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
High Resolution ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Mediterranean Area ◽  
Cultural Practice ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Study Region ◽  
Bioclimatic Indices ◽  
Northwestern Spain ◽  
The Mediterranean

Viticultural climatic indices were assessed for the evaluation of the meteorological variations in the requirements of wine cultivars. The applied bioclimatic indices have been widely used to provide an initial evaluation of climate change impacts on grapevine and to delineate wine regions and suitable areas for planting around the world. The study was carried out over a period of 16 years (from 2000 to 2015) in five Designation of Origin areas in Northwestern Spain located in the Eurosiberian region, the transition zone between the Eurosiberian and the Mediterranean areas, and in the Mediterranean area. In addition, the high-resolution meteorological dataset “Spain02” was applied to the bioclimatic indices for the period 1950–2095. To further assess the performance of “Spain02”, Taylor diagrams were elaborated for the different bioclimatic indices. A significant trend to an increase of the Winkler, Huglin, Night Cold Index and GSS Indices was detected in the North-western Spain, whereas slight negative trends for BBLI and GSP Indices were observed. To analyze future projections 2061–2095, data from the high-resolution dynamically downscaled daily climate simulations from EURO-CORDEX project were used. To further assess the performance of Spain02, Taylor diagrams were elaborated for the different bioclimatic indices. A trend to an increase of the Winkler, Huglin, Night Cold Index and GSP Indices was detected in Northwestern Spain, whereas slight negative trends for BBLI and GSP Indices were observed. Our results showed that climatic conditions in the study region could variate for the crop in the future, more for Mediterranean than Eurosiberian bioclimatic area. Due to an advance in the phenological events or the vintage data, more alcohol-fortified wines and variations in the acidity level of wines could be expected in Northwestern Spain, these processes being most noticeable in the Mediterranean area. The projections for the BBLI and GSP Indices will induce a decrease in the pressure of the mildew attacks incidence in the areas located at the Eurosiberian region and the nearest transition zones. Projections showed if the trend of temperature increase continues, some cultural practice variations should be conducted in order to preserve the grape cultivation suitability in the studied area.

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