Plant extinction risk under climate change: are forecast range shifts alone a good indicator of species vulnerability to global warming?

2012 ◽  
Vol 18 (4) ◽  
pp. 1357-1371 ◽  
Author(s):  
Damien A. Fordham ◽  
H. Resit Akçakaya ◽  
Miguel B. Araújo ◽  
Jane Elith ◽  
David A. Keith ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Extinction Risk ◽  
Range Shifts ◽  
Species Vulnerability ◽  
Plant Extinction

scholarly journals Synergistic impacts of global warming and thermohaline circulation collapse on amphibians

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Julián A. Velasco ◽  
Francisco Estrada ◽  
Oscar Calderón-Bustamante ◽  
Didier Swingedouw ◽  
Carolina Ureta ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Thermohaline Circulation ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Extinction Risk ◽  
Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Amphibian Species ◽  
Climate Conditions

AbstractImpacts on ecosystems and biodiversity are a prominent area of research in climate change. However, little is known about the effects of abrupt climate change and climate catastrophes on them. The probability of occurrence of such events is largely unknown but the associated risks could be large enough to influence global climate policy. Amphibians are indicators of ecosystems’ health and particularly sensitive to novel climate conditions. Using state-of-the-art climate model simulations, we present a global assessment of the effects of unabated global warming and a collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) on the distribution of 2509 amphibian species across six biogeographical realms and extinction risk categories. Global warming impacts are severe and strongly enhanced by additional and substantial AMOC weakening, showing tipping point behavior for many amphibian species. Further declines in climatically suitable areas are projected across multiple clades, and biogeographical regions. Species loss in regional assemblages is extensive across regions, with Neotropical, Nearctic and Palearctic regions being most affected. Results underline the need to expand existing knowledge about the consequences of climate catastrophes on human and natural systems to properly assess the risks of unabated warming and the benefits of active mitigation strategies.

Reflections on a seminal paper in conservation biology: the legacy of Peters and Darling (1985)

2018 ◽  
Vol 24 (3) ◽  
pp. 267
Author(s):  
Lesley Hughes
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Conservation Biology ◽  
Extinction Risk ◽  
Logical Framework ◽  
Natural Ecosystems ◽  
Seminal Paper ◽  
Species Vulnerability ◽  
Vulnerability To Climate Change ◽  
Species Translocation ◽  
Rapid Environmental Change

‘The Greenhouse Effect and Nature Reserves’ by Robert Peters and Joan Darling, published in the journal Bioscience more than 30 years ago, was a ground-breaking synthesis. Drawing on paleoecology, community ecology and biogeography, the review laid out many concepts about species vulnerability to climate change that have become central tenets of research on climate change adaptation in natural ecosystems. Remarkably, the paper also provided a clear and logical framework for flexible, forward-thinking and interventionist management action, including recommendations about the design of protected areas, and the need for species translocation to reduce extinction risk. Reflecting on the legacy of this paper, it is clear that the uptake of such approaches over the intervening decades has been extremely slow, representing many lost opportunities to reduce species vulnerability to rapid environmental change. This paper is a tribute to the prescience of Peters and Darling, and a call to revisit their farsighted advice to meet conservation challenges that continue to accelerate.

scholarly journals Not all biodiversity rich spots are climate refugia

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (24) ◽  
pp. 6567-6578
Author(s):  
Ádám T. Kocsis ◽  
Qianshuo Zhao ◽  
Mark J. Costello ◽  
Wolfgang Kiessling
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
Absolute Temperature ◽  
Elevated Risk ◽  
Anthropogenic Climate Change ◽  
Range Shifts ◽  
Future Warming ◽  
Almost All

Abstract. Anthropogenic climate change is increasingly threatening biodiversity on a global scale. Rich spots of biodiversity, regions with exceptionally high endemism and/or number of species, are a top priority for nature conservation. Terrestrial studies have hypothesized that rich spots occur in places where long-term climate change was dampened relative to other regions. Here we tested whether biodiversity rich spots are likely to provide refugia for organisms during anthropogenic climate change. We assessed the spatial distribution of both historic (absolute temperature change and climate change velocities) and projected climate change in terrestrial, freshwater, and marine rich spots. Our analyses confirm the general consensus that global warming will impact almost all rich spots of all three realms and suggest that their characteristic biota is expected to witness similar forcing to other areas, including range shifts and elevated risk of extinction. Marine rich spots seem to be particularly sensitive to global warming: they have warmed more, have higher climate velocities, and are projected to experience higher future warming than non-rich-spot areas. However, our results also suggest that terrestrial and freshwater rich spots will be somewhat less affected than other areas. These findings emphasize the urgency of protecting a comprehensive and representative network of biodiversity-rich areas that accommodate species range shifts under climate change.

scholarly journals Mammal faunal response to the Paleogene hyperthermals ETM2 and H2

2015 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 1371-1405
Author(s):  
A. E. Chew
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Bighorn Basin ◽  
Early Eocene ◽  
The South ◽  
Deep Time ◽  
Early Eocene Climatic Optimum ◽  
South Central ◽  
Species Vulnerability ◽  
Thermal Maximum

Abstract. Scientists are increasingly turning to deep-time fossil records to decipher the long-term consequences of climate change in the race to preserve modern biotas from anthropogenically driven global warming. "Hyperthermals" are past intervals of geologically rapid global warming that provide the opportunity to study the effects of climate change on existing faunas over thousands of years. A series hyperthermals is known from the early Eocene (∼56–54 million years ago), including the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) and two subsequent hyperthermals, Eocene Thermal Maximum 2 (ETM2) and H2. The later hyperthermals occurred following the onset of warming at the Early Eocene Climatic Optimum (EECO), the hottest sustained period of the Cenozoic. The PETM has been comprehensively studied in marine and terrestrial settings, but the terrestrial biotic effects of ETM2 and H2 are unknown. Their geochemical signatures have been located in the northern part of the Bighorn Basin, WY, USA, and their levels can be extrapolated to an extraordinarily dense, well-studied terrestrial mammal fossil record in the south-central part of the basin. High-resolution, multi-parameter paleoecological analysis reveals significant peaks in species diversity and turnover and changes in abundance and relative body size at the levels of ETM2 and H2 in the south-central Bighorn Basin record. In contrast with the PETM, faunal change at the later hyperthermals is less extreme, does not include immigration and involves a proliferation of body sizes, although abundance shifts tend to favor smaller congeners. Faunal response at ETM2 and H2 is distinctive in its high proportion of species losses potentially related to heightened species vulnerability in response to the changes already underway at the beginning of the EECO. Faunal response at ETM2 and H2 is also distinctive in high proportions of beta richness, suggestive of increased geographic dispersal related to transient increases in habitat (floral) complexity and/or precipitation or seasonality of precipitation. These results suggest that rapid ecological changes, increased heterogeneity in species incidence, and heightened species vulnerability and loss may be expected across most of North America in the near future in response to anthropogenically-driven climate change.

scholarly journals Projected range contractions of montane biodiversity under global warming

2010 ◽  
Vol 277 (1699) ◽  
pp. 3401-3410 ◽  
Author(s):  
Frank A. La Sorte ◽  
Walter Jetz
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Extinction Risk ◽  
Bird Species ◽  
High Elevation ◽  
Bird Diversity ◽  
Vertical Range ◽  
Vertical Distributions ◽  
Montane Biodiversity ◽  
Mountain Systems

Mountains, especially in the tropics, harbour a unique and large portion of the world's biodiversity. Their geographical isolation, limited range size and unique environmental adaptations make montane species potentially the most threatened under impeding climate change. Here, we provide a global baseline assessment of geographical range contractions and extinction risk of high-elevation specialists in a future warmer world. We consider three dispersal scenarios for simulated species and for the world's 1009 montane bird species. Under constrained vertical dispersal (VD), species with narrow vertical distributions are strongly impacted; at least a third of montane bird diversity is severely threatened. In a scenario of unconstrained VD, the location and structure of mountain systems emerge as a strong driver of extinction risk. Even unconstrained lateral movements offer little improvement to the fate of montane species in the Afrotropics, Australasia and Nearctic. Our results demonstrate the particular roles that the geography of species richness, the spatial structure of lateral and particularly vertical range extents and the specific geography of mountain systems have in determining the vulnerability of montane biodiversity to climate change. Our findings confirm the outstanding levels of biotic perturbation and extinction risk that mountain systems are likely to experience under global warming and highlight the need for additional knowledge on species' vertical distributions, dispersal and adaptive capacities.

scholarly journals Searching for synthetic mechanisms on how biological traits mediate species responses to climate change

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Fábio Júlio Alves Borges ◽  
Rafael Loyola
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Extinction Risk ◽  
Diet Breadth ◽  
Dispersal Ability ◽  
Tropical Species ◽  
Biological Traits ◽  
Species Vulnerability ◽  
Environment Temperature ◽  
Species Responses ◽  
Different Response

Abstract: Climate change will likely be the most significant challenge faced by species in this century, and species’ ability to cope with climate change depends on their life history and ecological and evolutionary traits. Understanding how these traits mediate species’ responses is beneficial for identifying more vulnerable species or prone to extinction risk. Here, we carried out a literature review describing how four traits commonly used in vulnerability assessments (i.e. clutch size, diet breadth, dispersal ability, and climatic tolerance) may determine species vulnerability. We also portray the possible mechanisms that explain how these traits govern species responses to climate change. The literature suggests different mechanisms operating for the evaluated traits. The mechanism of response to climate change differs between species inhabiting tropical and temperate regions: while species from the temperate areas may respond positively to temperature rise, tropical species may be severely affected. Since ectotherms depend on environment temperature, they are more sensitive and present different response mechanisms from endotherms.

scholarly journals Spatially heterogeneous impact of climate change on small mammals of montane California

2015 ◽  
Vol 282 (1799) ◽  
pp. 20141857 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kevin C. Rowe ◽  
Karen M. C. Rowe ◽  
Morgan W. Tingley ◽  
Michelle S. Koo ◽  
James L. Patton ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Small Mammals ◽  
Leading Edge ◽  
High Elevation ◽  
Range Shifts ◽  
Individual Species ◽  
Site Specific ◽  
Specific Change ◽  
Lower Limits

Resurveys of historical collecting localities have revealed range shifts, primarily leading edge expansions, which have been attributed to global warming. However, there have been few spatially replicated community-scale resurveys testing whether species' responses are spatially consistent. Here we repeated early twentieth century surveys of small mammals along elevational gradients in northern, central and southern regions of montane California. Of the 34 species we analysed, 25 shifted their ranges upslope or downslope in at least one region. However, two-thirds of ranges in the three regions remained stable at one or both elevational limits and none of the 22 species found in all three regions shifted both their upper and lower limits in the same direction in all regions. When shifts occurred, high-elevation species typically contracted their lower limits upslope, whereas low-elevation species had heterogeneous responses. For high-elevation species, site-specific change in temperature better predicted the direction of shifts than change in precipitation, whereas the direction of shifts by low-elevation species was unpredictable by temperature or precipitation. While our results support previous findings of primarily upslope shifts in montane species, they also highlight the degree to which the responses of individual species vary across geographically replicated landscapes.

Modelling ecosystem adaptation and dangerous rates of global warming

2019 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 221-231 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rebecca Millington ◽  
Peter M. Cox ◽  
Jonathan R. Moore ◽  
Gabriel Yvon-Durocher
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Diffusion Rate ◽  
Individual Species ◽  
Genetic Evolution ◽  
Rates Of Change ◽  
Rapid Climate Change ◽  
Warming Climate ◽  
Intraspecies Competition ◽  
High Trait

Abstract We are in a period of relatively rapid climate change. This poses challenges for individual species and threatens the ecosystem services that humanity relies upon. Temperature is a key stressor. In a warming climate, individual organisms may be able to shift their thermal optima through phenotypic plasticity. However, such plasticity is unlikely to be sufficient over the coming centuries. Resilience to warming will also depend on how fast the distribution of traits that define a species can adapt through other methods, in particular through redistribution of the abundance of variants within the population and through genetic evolution. In this paper, we use a simple theoretical ‘trait diffusion’ model to explore how the resilience of a given species to climate change depends on the initial trait diversity (biodiversity), the trait diffusion rate (mutation rate), and the lifetime of the organism. We estimate theoretical dangerous rates of continuous global warming that would exceed the ability of a species to adapt through trait diffusion, and therefore lead to a collapse in the overall productivity of the species. As the rate of adaptation through intraspecies competition and genetic evolution decreases with species lifetime, we find critical rates of change that also depend fundamentally on lifetime. Dangerous rates of warming vary from 1°C per lifetime (at low trait diffusion rate) to 8°C per lifetime (at high trait diffusion rate). We conclude that rapid climate change is liable to favour short-lived organisms (e.g. microbes) rather than longer-lived organisms (e.g. trees).

Political Preferences, Personality Traits, and Environmentalism

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alistair Soutter ◽  
René Mõttus
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Personality Traits ◽  
Public Discourse ◽  
Environmental Attitudes ◽  
Scientific Evidence ◽  
Political Orientation ◽  
Anthropogenic Climate Change ◽  
Political Preferences ◽  
Party Voting

Although the scientific evidence of anthropogenic climate change continues to grow, public discourse still reflects a high level of scepticism and political polarisation towards anthropogenic climate change. In this study (N = 499) we attempted to replicate and expand upon an earlier finding that environmental terminology (“climate change” versus “global warming”) could partly explain political polarisation in environmental scepticism (Schuldt, Konrath, & Schwarz, 2011). Participants completed a series of online questionnaires assessing personality traits, political preferences, belief in environmental phenomenon, and various pro-environmental attitudes and behaviours. Those with a Conservative political orientation and/or party voting believed less in both climate change and global warming compared to those with a Liberal orientation and/or party voting. Furthermore, there was an interaction between continuously measured political orientation, but not party voting, and question wording on beliefs in environmental phenomena. Personality traits did not confound these effects. Furthermore, continuously measured political orientation was associated with pro-environmental attitudes, after controlling for personality traits, age, gender, area lived in, income, and education. The personality domains of Openness, and Conscientiousness, were consistently associated with pro-environmental attitudes and behaviours, whereas Agreeableness was associated with pro-environmental attitudes but not with behaviours. This study highlights the importance of examining personality traits and political preferences together and suggests ways in which policy interventions can best be optimised to account for these individual differences.

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