Employing Automation for Effect Prediction and Exploration in Complex Simulations (EAEPECS)

2008 ◽  
Author(s):  
Janet Wedgwood ◽  
Zacharias Horiatis ◽  
Thaddeus Konicki
Keyword(s):  
Modeling And Simulation ◽  
Advanced Technology ◽  
Order Effects ◽  
Military Operations ◽  
Social Infrastructure ◽  
Scenario Development ◽  
Third Order ◽  
Course Of Action ◽  
Computer Scientists ◽  
Military Campaigns

Support of military campaigns requires new approaches for effective generation of desired effects, and continuous adjustment of the actions, for the entire life of the campaign. Military planners are moving to Effects-Based Operations (EBO) [1] to achieve these desired effects for a combination of Diplomatic, Informational, Military, and Economic (DIME) actions. As military planners move from pure military operations to Effects-Based Operations (EBO) [1], they will need tools to enhance their understanding how the desired Political, Military, Economic, Social, Infrastructure, Information (PMESII) effects can be achieved through a combination of Diplomatic, Informational, Military, and Economic (DIME) actions. Engineers at Lockheed Martin Advanced Technology Laboratories are developing the Employing Automation for Effect Prediction and Exploration in Complex Simulations processes as part of their research into the use of Modeling and Simulation to develop and analyze campaign-level effects-based operations. It uses innovative multi-paradigm simulations of DIME actions on models to determine the probable desired effects, as well as the undesirable effects, while developing a better understanding of second and third order effects. In order for this technology to be useful to military analysts and planners, it must be made accessible to non computer scientists. Our goal is to help analysts and planners easily exploit the power of Modeling and Simulation for exploring Effects-Based Operations through automation of scenario development, model instantiation, integration and initialization and Course of Action (COA) development, simulation and analysis.

scholarly journals Roleplaying to Improve Resilience

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Allan W. Shearer
Keyword(s):  
Role Playing ◽  
Order Effects ◽  
Military Operations ◽  
Social Infrastructure ◽  
Multiple Perspectives ◽  
Urban Resilience ◽  
Health Safety ◽  
The North ◽  
Role Playing Game ◽  
The City

This article presents an approach to improve urban resilience by examining crisis dynamics through a role-playing game. The set of exploratory exercises extend the Archaria 2035 scenario and geographic information system model, which was developed by the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) to advance concepts that support military operations. Participants (graduate students) worked in teams to identify and map critical relationships related to health, safety and welfare through a modified version of the Political, Military, Economic, Social, Infrastructure, Information (PMESII) framework. Next, each participant was given a one-page stakeholder profile that specified motives, kinds and degrees of influence, and connections to other stakeholders. This information was used to create maps that showed how each character understood the city. Crisis event details were revealed a day-and-a-half before the game. NATO staff contributed to the event by presenting courses of action to restore security and order. Participants gave opinions on how their characters might act during the event and react to the proposed military operations. Conversations created temporary collaborations among some stakeholders but also conflicts among others that could create additional problems. A post-game assignment asked participants to write memos on specific policies and plans that would reduce vulnerability to the crisis. As a matter of pedagogy, results the demonstrate the value of role-playing to consider multiple perspectives and second- and third-order effects of a crisis. Specifically, connecting gameplay conversations and results back to initial ideas about health, safety and welfare contributed to reconsiderations of assumptions about contingent relationships.

scholarly journals The Environmental Impact of Transport Activities for Online and In-Store Shopping: A Systematic Literature Review to Identify Relevant Factors for Quantitative Assessments

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (5) ◽  
pp. 2981
Author(s):  
Susanne Feichtinger ◽  
Manfred Gronalt
Keyword(s):  
Environmental Impact ◽  
Distribution Channel ◽  
Order Effects ◽  
Third Order ◽  
Screening Process ◽  
Environmental Friendliness ◽  
Number Of Factors ◽  
Recommendations For Action ◽  
Behavioural Factors ◽  
Relevant Factors

In the scientific literature, there are numerous studies with different approaches and focuses on assessing the environmental impact of online shopping and shopping in the traditional retail channel. The aim of this work is to analyse scientific studies that quantitatively assess the environmental impact of transport activities in both channels and to extract the factors used for this assessment. A literature search was conducted for the period 2006 to October 2020, with 90 studies shortlisted, of which 15 studies were identified as relevant in a screening process. The analysis showed that a different number of factors is included in the selected studies. Logistics-related and behavioural factors are mostly of similar importance. Third-order effects, such as rebound or complementary effects, are rarely considered. Furthermore, it becomes clear that the results also depend on differences in study design and external factors. This work illustrates the complexity of quantitatively assessing the environmental impact of online and in-store shopping. Caution is advised when deriving recommendations for action from general statements about the environmental friendliness of a distribution channel. The 15 factors found, together with the classification method used, form a solid basis for building new models.

The United States and Iran

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ray Takeyh
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
National Security ◽  
Decision Maker ◽  
The United States ◽  
The Other ◽  
Order Effects ◽  
Optimal Outcome ◽  
Third Order ◽  
National Interests ◽  
Taking Action

Implementing deterrent and compellent strategies are among the most critical tasks of the national security decision maker. However, as the case of U.S.-Iranian relations since 1979 demonstrates, deterring another state from taking action—especially if it considers those steps to be in its national interests—or compelling it to adopt policies in line with one’s own preferences but which represent a setback to the goals of the other state can be a difficult proposition. In addition, the Iran relationship demonstrates howthe use of deterrent and compellent instruments must be weighed against costs and other second- and third-order effects which may cause the policymaker to accept a less than optimal outcome in order to avoid greater complications in other areas.

The Effects of Flare and Overhangs on the Motions of a Yacht in Head Seas

1993 ◽  
Author(s):  
John C. Kuhn ◽  
Eric C. Schlageter
Keyword(s):  
Nonlinear Differential Equations ◽  
Equations Of Motion ◽  
Linear Equations ◽  
Order Effects ◽  
Third Order ◽  
Numerical Work ◽  
Strip Theory ◽  
Hull Forms ◽  
The Time Domain ◽  
The Impact

The coupled heave and pitch motions of hull forms with flare and overhangs are examined numerically. The presence of flare and overhangs is numerically modelled with nonlinear hydrostatic and Froude-Krylov forces based on integrals over the instantaneous wetted surface. Forces due to radiation and diffraction are computed with a linear strip-theory. These forces are combined in two coupled nonlinear differential equations of motion that are solved in the time domain with a fourth-order Runge-Kutta integration method. An assessment of the impact of flare and overhangs on motions is obtained by comparing these nonlinear solutions with solutions of the traditional linear equations of motion, which do not contain forces due to flare and overhangs. For an example based on an International America's Cup Class yacht design, it is found that the nonlinear heave and pitch motions are smaller than the linear motions. This is primarily due to reduced first-order response components, which are coupled with nonlinear response components. Comparisons of these results with towing tank data demonstrate that the nonlinear procedure improves prediction quality relative to linear results. In support of this numerical work, the hydrostatic and Froude­Krylov force integrals are expanded in Taylor series with respect to wave elevation. These results indicate how hydrostatic and Froude-Krylov forces change with changing flare and overhang angles, revealing that sectional slope has second and third-order effects on forces while sectional curvature and overhang angles produce third-order effects.

Modern Military Operations

2021 ◽  
pp. 522-535
Author(s):  
Christine Boshuijzen-van Burken
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Information And Communication Technologies ◽  
Communication Technologies ◽  
Moral Decision ◽  
Military Operations ◽  
Moral Decision Making ◽  
Friendly Fire ◽  
Course Of Action ◽  
Use Of Technology ◽  
Information And Communication

Modern military operations are characterized by ubiquitous use of technology, in particular the use of information and communication technologies for real-time information sharing. The use of technology on the battlefield is assumed to improve decision making in military practice. By making use of a friendly fire incident in Afghanistan, namely the Sangin incident in 2011, the author highlights why moral decision making could be hampered by technology. This is partly due to the fact that information and communication technologies subtly connect sub-practices that exist within the broader military practice, thus potentially blurring normative structures. Blurring of normative structures can cause problems for moral decision making on the battlefield, because it is suddenly not clear who is responsible for the course of action.

scholarly journals The effect of third-order nonlinearity on statistical properties of random directional waves in finite depth

2009 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. 131-139 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Toffoli ◽  
M. Benoit ◽  
M. Onorato ◽  
E. M. Bitner-Gregersen
Keyword(s):  
Wave Energy ◽  
Finite Depth ◽  
Statistical Properties ◽  
Order Effects ◽  
Intermediate Water ◽  
Third Order ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Relative Water ◽  
Gaussian Statistics ◽  
Third Order Nonlinearity

Abstract. It is well established that third-order nonlinearity produces a strong deviation from Gaussian statistics in water of infinite depth, provided the wave field is long crested, narrow banded and sufficiently steep. A reduction of third-order effects is however expected when the wave energy is distributed on a wide range of directions. In water of arbitrary depth, on the other hand, third-order effects tend to be suppressed by finite depth effects if waves are long crested. Numerical simulations of the truncated potential Euler equations are here used to address the combined effect of directionality and finite depth on the statistical properties of surface gravity waves; only relative water depth kh greater than 0.8 are here considered. Results show that random directional wave fields in intermediate water depths, kh=O(1), weakly deviate from Gaussian statistics independently of the degree of directional spreading of the wave energy.

scholarly journals Extreme Waves in Crossing Sea States

2018 ◽  
Vol 01 (01) ◽  
pp. 1850001 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joseph Brennan ◽  
John M. Dudley ◽  
Frédéric Dias
Keyword(s):  
Rogue Waves ◽  
Order Effects ◽  
Third Order ◽  
Flat Bottom ◽  
Spectral Content ◽  
Wave Event ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Wind Sea ◽  
Set Up ◽  
Wavenumber Region

The evolution of crossing sea states and the emergence of rogue waves in such systems are studied via numerical simulations performed using a higher order spectral (HOS) method to solve the free surface Euler equations with a flat bottom. Two classes of crossing sea states are analyzed: one using directional spectra from the Draupner wave crossing at different angles, another considering a Draupner-like spectra crossed with a narrowband JONSWAP state to model spectral growth between wind sea and swell. These two classes of crossing sea states are constructed using the spectral output of a WAVEWATCH III hindcast on the Draupner rogue wave event. We measure ensemble statistical moments as functions of time, finding that although the crossing angle influences the statistical evolution to some degree, there are no significant third-order effects present. Additionally, we pay particular attention to the mean sea level measured beneath extreme crest heights, the elevation of which (set up or set down) is shown to be related to the spectral content in the low wavenumber region of the corresponding spectrum.

China and Iran recast Pakistan's ties to Saudi Arabia

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Potential Role ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Full Term ◽  
Military Operations ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Military Campaigns ◽  
Complex Balancing ◽  
Economic Ties

Subject Pakistan's ties with Saudi Arabia. Significance Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif visited Saudi Arabia last week -- for the second time in two months. Much attention focused on Pakistan's potential role in the Riyadh-led counterterrorism alliance, with the kingdom looking for a concrete commitment. With Iranian President Hassan Rouhani due in Pakistan at the end of March, Sharif sought to calm Saudi concerns about deepening Pakistan-Iran economic ties. Both relationships are bound to be complex balancing acts. Impacts Pakistan's army is unlikely to send troops for Riyadh's overseas military campaigns for fear of stoking sectarian tensions within Pakistan. An excessively pro-Iran attitude by Sharif's government would annoy Pakistan's military. Sharif will avoid this, in large part to ensure his own administration lasts its full term to mid-2018. Pakistan's reluctance to join Saudi-led military operations will increase Saudi dependence on other Sunni military allies, eg, Egypt, Sudan.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document