Comparison of the Long-Term Trends of the Largest Waves in the Ice-Free Arctic Waters From Different Reanalysis Products

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Takuji Waseda ◽  
Takehiko Nose ◽  
Adrean Webb
Keyword(s):  
Arctic Ocean ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Extreme Value Analysis ◽  
Positive Trend ◽  
Value Analysis ◽  
The Arctic Ocean ◽  
Ship Route ◽  
Long Term Trends ◽  
Horizontal Grid

The long-term trends of the expected largest waves in the ice-free Arctic waters from Laptev to Beaufort Seas was studied analyzing the ERA-interim reanalysis from 1979 to 2016. The analysis showed that the positive trend is largest in October and increased almost 70 cm in 38 years. For ships navigating the Northern Ship Route, it is important to know what the possible largest waves to expect during its cruise. In view of conducting the extreme value analysis, the uncertainty of the largest wave needs to be validated. However, the observation in the Arctic Ocean is limited. We, therefore, rely on the reanalysis wave products in the Arctic Ocean, whose uncertainty is yet to be determined. ERA-Interim and ERA-5 are compared in the Laptev, the East Siberian, Chukchi and Beaufort Seas. The comparison is relevant as the two products differ in its horizontal grid resolution and availability of the satellite altimeter significant wave height data assimilation. During 2010–2016 when the ERA5 is available, only a small difference from ERA-Interim was detected in the mean. However, the expected largest waves in the domain tended to be large for the ERA-5, 8% normalized bias. The tendency was quite similar with a high correlation of 0.98.

scholarly journals Attribution of the Recent Winter Sea Ice Decline over the Atlantic Sector of the Arctic Ocean*

2015 ◽  
Vol 28 (10) ◽  
pp. 4027-4033 ◽  
Author(s):  
Doo-Sun R. Park ◽  
Sukyoung Lee ◽  
Steven B. Feldstein
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Arctic Ocean ◽  
Environmental Changes ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Positive Trend ◽  
Ir Radiation ◽  
Atlantic Sector ◽  
Sea Ice Decline ◽  
The Arctic Ocean

Abstract Wintertime Arctic sea ice extent has been declining since the late twentieth century, particularly over the Atlantic sector that encompasses the Barents–Kara Seas and Baffin Bay. This sea ice decline is attributable to various Arctic environmental changes, such as enhanced downward infrared (IR) radiation, preseason sea ice reduction, enhanced inflow of warm Atlantic water into the Arctic Ocean, and sea ice export. However, their relative contributions are uncertain. Utilizing ERA-Interim and satellite-based data, it is shown here that a positive trend of downward IR radiation accounts for nearly half of the sea ice concentration (SIC) decline during the 1979–2011 winter over the Atlantic sector. Furthermore, the study shows that the Arctic downward IR radiation increase is driven by horizontal atmospheric water flux and warm air advection into the Arctic, not by evaporation from the Arctic Ocean. These findings suggest that most of the winter SIC trends can be attributed to changes in the large-scale atmospheric circulations.

Simulating the Long-Term Variability of Liquid Freshwater Export from the Arctic Ocean

2008 ◽  
pp. 405-425 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rüdiger Gerdes ◽  
Michael Karcher ◽  
Cornelia Köberle ◽  
Kerstin Fieg
Keyword(s):  
Arctic Ocean ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
The Arctic Ocean ◽  
Freshwater Export

Projected disruption in seasonal timing of Arctic Ocean pCO2

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
James Orr ◽  
Lester Kwiatkowski
Keyword(s):  
Arctic Ocean ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Seasonal Timing ◽  
Enhanced Sensitivity ◽  
Projected Change ◽  
The Arctic Ocean ◽  
Projected Changes ◽  
System Variables ◽  
Earth System Models

<p>Ocean acidification implies long-term changes in ocean CO<sub>2</sub> system variables modulated by changes in seasonal amplitudes. Further modulation, yet unexplored, may come from changes in timing of the annual cycle. For the CO<sub>2</sub> partial pressure (<em>p</em>CO<sub>2</sub>), a winter high and summer low are observed in Arctic Ocean surface waters because thermal effects are outweighed by those from biology. Here the same timing was found with 9 Earth system models under historical forcing. Yet under a high-end CO<sub>2</sub> emission scenario, those models project that the summer low (relative to the annual mean) eventually reverses sign across most of the Arctic Ocean. In most models, that sign reversal inverses the chronological order of the annual high and low. The high moves from spring to summer and the low moves from summer to spring. The cause is the projected dramatic warming in summer sea surface temperature provoked by earlier retreat of seasonal sea ice. The increase in the summer <em>p</em>CO<sub>2</sub> extreme over this century is 29±9% greater than if there had been no change in seasonal timing, only the enhanced sensitivity of <em>p</em>CO<sub>2</sub> to its driving variables. Thus the projected change in extreme summer <em>p</em>CO<sub>2</sub> is 150±50 μatm higher. Outside of the Arctic Ocean, projected changes in seasonal timing of <em>p</em>CO<sub>2</sub> are small.</p>

scholarly journals A long-term circulation and water mass monitoring program for the Arctic Ocean

Eos ◽  
2003 ◽  
Vol 84 (30) ◽  
pp. 281 ◽  
Author(s):  
Igor Polyakov ◽  
David Walsh ◽  
Igor Dmitrenko ◽  
Roger Colony ◽  
Jennifer Hutchings ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Arctic Ocean ◽  
Water Mass ◽  
Monitoring Program ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
The Arctic Ocean

Increased Arctic Ocean sea ice loss through the Canadian Arctic Archipelago under a warmer climate

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephen Howell ◽  
Mike Brady
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Arctic Ocean ◽  
Canadian Arctic ◽  
Open Water ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Canadian Arctic Archipelago ◽  
Nares Strait ◽  
The Arctic Ocean ◽  
Important Pathway

<p>The ice arches that ring the northern Canadian Arctic Archipelago have historically blocked the inflow of Arctic Ocean sea ice for the majority of the year. However, annual average air temperature in northern Canada has increased by more than 2°C over the past 65+ years and a warmer climate is expected to contribute to the deterioration of these ice arches, which in turn has implications for the overall loss of Arctic Ocean sea ice. We investigated the effect of warming on the Arctic Ocean ice area flux into the Canadian Arctic Archipelago using a 22-year record (1997-2018) of ice exchange derived from RADARSAT-1 and RADARSAT-2 imagery. Results indicated that there has been a significant increase in the amount of Arctic Ocean sea ice (10<sup>3</sup> km<sup>2</sup>/year) entering the northern Canadian Arctic Archipelago over the period of 1997-2018. The increased Arctic Ocean ice area flux was associated with reduced ice arch duration but also with faster (thinner) moving ice and more southern latitude open water leeway as a result of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago’s long-term transition to a younger and thinner ice regime. Remarkably, in 2016, the Arctic Ocean ice area flux into the Canadian Arctic Archipelago (161x10<sup>3</sup> km<sup>2</sup>) was 7 times greater than the 1997-2018 average (23x10<sup>3</sup> km<sup>2</sup>) and almost double the 2007 ice area flux into Nares Strait (87x10<sup>3</sup> km<sup>2</sup>). Indeed, Nares Strait is known to be an important pathway for Arctic Ocean ice loss however, the results of this study suggest that with continued warming, the Canadian Arctic Archipelago may also become a large contributor to Arctic Ocean ice loss.</p>

scholarly journals Climatic characteristics of the tropopause over the Arctic Basin

1998 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. 110-115 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. P. Nagurny
Keyword(s):  
Arctic Basin ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Upper And Lower Bounds ◽  
Meteorology And Atmospheric Dynamics ◽  
The Arctic Ocean ◽  
Russian North ◽  
Long Term Trends ◽  
Polar Meteorology ◽  
Climatic Characteristics

Abstract. On the basis of stationary aerological observations and measurements at Russian "North Pole" drifting stations taken during 1954–1991, tropopause climate parameters (height and temperature at its upper and lower bounds) are determined. Long-term trends of these parameters over the Arctic Ocean are revealed.Key words. Meteorology and atmospheric dynamics · Climatology · Polar meteorology

scholarly journals Arctic Ocean Freshwater Changes over the Past 100 Years and Their Causes

2008 ◽  
Vol 21 (2) ◽  
pp. 364-384 ◽  
Author(s):  
I. V. Polyakov ◽  
V. A. Alexeev ◽  
G. I. Belchansky ◽  
I. A. Dmitrenko ◽  
V. V. Ivanov ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Arctic Ocean ◽  
Observational Data ◽  
Thermohaline Circulation ◽  
Atmospheric Precipitation ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Central Basin ◽  
Central Arctic Ocean ◽  
The Arctic Ocean ◽  
Long Term Variations

Abstract Recent observations show dramatic changes of the Arctic atmosphere–ice–ocean system. Here the authors demonstrate, through the analysis of a vast collection of previously unsynthesized observational data, that over the twentieth century the central Arctic Ocean became increasingly saltier with a rate of freshwater loss of 239 ± 270 km3 decade−1. In contrast, long-term (1920–2003) freshwater content (FWC) trends over the Siberian shelf show a general freshening tendency with a rate of 29 ± 50 km3 decade−1. These FWC trends are modulated by strong multidecadal variability with sustained and widespread patterns. Associated with this variability, the FWC record shows two periods in the 1920s–30s and in recent decades when the central Arctic Ocean was saltier, and two periods in the earlier century and in the 1940s–70s when it was fresher. The current analysis of potential causes for the recent central Arctic Ocean salinification suggests that the FWC anomalies generated on Arctic shelves (including anomalies resulting from river discharge inputs) and those caused by net atmospheric precipitation were too small to trigger long-term FWC variations in the central Arctic Ocean; to the contrary, they tend to moderate the observed long-term central-basin FWC changes. Variability of the intermediate Atlantic Water did not have apparent impact on changes of the upper–Arctic Ocean water masses. The authors’ estimates suggest that ice production and sustained draining of freshwater from the Arctic Ocean in response to winds are the key contributors to the salinification of the upper Arctic Ocean over recent decades. Strength of the export of Arctic ice and water controls the supply of Arctic freshwater to subpolar basins while the intensity of the Arctic Ocean FWC anomalies is of less importance. Observational data demonstrate striking coherent long-term variations of the key Arctic climate parameters and strong coupling of long-term changes in the Arctic–North Atlantic climate system. Finally, since the high-latitude freshwater plays a crucial role in establishing and regulating global thermohaline circulation, the long-term variations of the freshwater content discussed here should be considered when assessing climate change and variability.

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