scholarly journals Eliminating the Uncertainties in Hydraulic and Ice Loads on Berm Breakwaters

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maria Pontiki ◽  
Bernt Johan Leira ◽  
Knut Vilhelm Høyland
Keyword(s):  
Bayesian Network ◽  
Historical Data ◽  
Probabilistic Approach ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Average Deviation ◽  
Predictive Skill ◽  
Ice Loads ◽  
Port Structures ◽  
Ice Forces ◽  
Prudhoe Bay

Abstract A model for the computation of failure probabilities for partly reshaping mass-armored berm breakwaters in the Arctic is presented. The model consists of a reliable tool for the design of port structures in the rapidly changing Arctic environment and considers the simultaneous effects of wave and ice forces. The applied probabilistic approach was based on Bayesian inference. Hydrodynamic and ice historical data from Prudhoe Bay, Alaska were collected and analyzed to supply the Bayesian network with a large pool of information for the analysis. The model performed real-time predictions based on historical data and the user’s prior knowledge and assigned relevant values to load and resistance parameters. The predictive skill of the Bayesian network was validated with log-likelihood tests. Furthermore, the main outputs were applied for a Level III (fully probabilistic) reliability assessment of the structure. The study shows that a well-formulated Bayesian network can be a powerful tool in the design process and for the purpose of reliability analysis of coastal structures in highly unpredictable environments, such as the Arctic. The model can represent the dependencies between wave and ice loads in relation to the characteristics of the breakwater, as well as, its response. The average deviation of computed probabilities of failure relative to the prior estimates was 58.7%.

Advanced Weathervaning in Ice

2011 ◽  
Author(s):  
William Hidding ◽  
Guillaume Bonnaffoux ◽  
Mamoun Naciri
Keyword(s):  
Rapid Change ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Model Tests ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Mooring System ◽  
Sudden Increase ◽  
Time Step ◽  
Ice Loads ◽  
Level Ice ◽  
Drift Direction

The reported presence of one third of remaining fossil reserves in the Arctic has sparked a lot of interest from energy companies. This has raised the necessity of developing specific engineering tools to design safely and accurately arctic-compliant offshore structures. The mooring system design of a turret-moored vessel in ice-infested waters is a clear example of such a key engineering tool. In the arctic region, a turret-moored vessel shall be designed to face many ice features: level ice, ice ridges or even icebergs. Regarding specifically level ice, a turret-moored vessel will tend to align her heading (to weather vane) with the ice sheet drift direction in order to decrease the mooring loads applied by this ice sheet. For a vessel already embedded in an ice sheet, a rapid change in the ice drift direction will suddenly increase the ice loads before the weathervaning occurs. This sudden increase in mooring loads may be a governing event for the turret-mooring system and should therefore be understood and simulated properly to ensure a safe design. The paper presents ADWICE (Advanced Weathervaning in ICE), an engineering tool dedicated to the calculation of the weathervaning of ship-shaped vessels in level ice. In ADWICE, the ice load formulation relies on the Croasdale model. Ice loads are calculated and applied to the vessel quasi-statically at each time step. The software also updates the hull waterline contour at each time step in order to calculate precisely the locations of contact between the hull and the ice sheet. Model tests of a turret-moored vessel have been performed in an ice basin. Validation of the simulated response is performed by comparison with model tests results in terms of weathervaning time, maximum mooring loads, and vessel motions.

Propagation of Thermohaline Anomalies and their predictive potential in the Northern North Atlantic

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Helene R. Langehaug ◽  
Pablo Ortega ◽  
Francois Counillon ◽  
Daniela Matei ◽  
Elizabeth Maroon ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Scales ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Atlantic Water ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Lead Times ◽  
Band Pass Filter ◽  
Pass Filter ◽  
Predictive Skill ◽  
Prediction Systems ◽  
Water Pathway

<p>In this study we assess to what extent seven different dynamical prediction systems can retrospectively predict the winter sea surface temperature (SST) in the subpolar North Atlantic and the Nordic Seas in the time period 1970-2005. We focus in particular on the region where warm water flows poleward, i.e., the Atlantic water pathway, and on interannual-to-decadal time scales. To better understand why dynamical prediction systems have predictive skill or lack thereof, we confront them with a mechanism identified from observations – propagation of oceanic anomalies from low to high latitudes – on different forecast lead times. This observed mechanism shows that warm and cold anomalies propagate along the Atlantic water pathway within a certain time frame. A key result from this study is that most models have difficulty representing this mechanism, resulting in an overall poor prediction skill after 1-2 years lead times (after applying a band-pass filter to focus on interannual-to-decadal time scales). There is a link, although not very strong, between predictive skill and the representation of the SST propagation. Observational studies demonstrate predictability several years in advance in this region, thus suggesting a great potential for improvement of dynamical climate predictions by resolving the causes for the misrepresentation of the oceanic link. Inter model differences in simulating surface velocities along the Atlantic water pathway suggest that realistic velocities are important to better circulate anomalies poleward, and hence, increase predictive skill on interannual-to-decadal time scales in the oceanic gateway to the Arctic.</p>

Parameter Sensitivity in Numerical Modelling of Ice-Structure Interaction With Cohesive Element Method

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dianshi Feng ◽  
Sze Dai Pang ◽  
Jin Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Element Model ◽  
Offshore Structures ◽  
Parameter Sensitivity ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Cohesive Element ◽  
Structure Interaction ◽  
Marine Structure ◽  
Ice Loads ◽  
The Stability ◽  
Element Method

The increasing marine activities in the Arctic has resulted in a growing demand for reliable structural designs in this region. Ice loads are a major concern to the designer of a marine structure in the arctic, and are often the principal factor that governs the structural design [Palmer and Croasdale, 2013]. With the rapid advancement in computational power, numerical method is becoming a useful tool for design of offshore structures subjected to ice actions. Cohesive element method (CEM), a method which has been widely utilized to simulate fracture in various materials ranging from metals to ceramics and composites as well as bi-material systems, has been recently applied to predict ice-structure interactions. Although it shows promising future for further applications, there are also some challenging issues like high mesh dependency, large variation in cohesive properties etc., yet to be resolved. In this study, a 3D finite element model with the use of CEM was developed in LS-DYNA for simulating ice-structure interaction. The stability of the model was investigated and a parameter sensitivity analysis was carried out for a better understanding of how each material parameter affects the simulation results.

scholarly journals Development of a Bayesian network for probabilistic risk assessment of pesticides

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sophie Mentzel ◽  
Merete Grung ◽  
Knut Erik Tollefsen ◽  
Marianne Stenrod ◽  
Karina Petersen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Bayesian Network ◽  
Environmental Risk ◽  
Environmental Risk Assessment ◽  
Probability Distributions ◽  
Probabilistic Approach ◽  
Probabilistic Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Calculation ◽  
Link Information ◽  
Probabilistic Risk

Conventional environmental risk assessment of chemicals is based on a calculated risk quotient, representing the ratio of exposure to effects of the chemical, in combination with assessment factors to account for uncertainty. Probabilistic risk assessment approaches can offer more transparency, by using probability distributions for exposure and/or effects to account for variability and uncertainty. In this study, a probabilistic approach using Bayesian network (BN) modelling is explored as an alternative to traditional risk calculation. BNs can serve as meta-models that link information from several sources and offer a transparent way of incorporating the required characterization of uncertainty for environmental risk assessment. To this end, a BN has been developed and parameterised for the pesticides azoxystrobin, metribuzin, and imidacloprid. We illustrate the development from deterministic (traditional) risk calculation, via intermediate versions, to fully probabilistic risk characterisation using azoxystrobin as an example. We also demonstrate seasonal risk calculation for the three pesticides.

scholarly journals Seasonal sea ice prediction based on regional indices

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
John E. Walsh ◽  
J. Scott Stewart ◽  
Florence Fetterer
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Chukchi Sea ◽  
Numerical Models ◽  
Linear Trend ◽  
Piecewise Linear ◽  
Severity Index ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Linear Quadratic ◽  
Predictive Skill ◽  
Arctic Ice

Abstract. Basic statistical metrics such as autocorrelations and across-region lag correlations of sea ice variations provide benchmarks for the assessments of forecast skill achieved by other methods such as more sophisticated statistical formulations, numerical models, and heuristic approaches. However, the strong negative trend of sea ice coverage in recent decades complicates the evaluation of statistical skill by inflating the correlation of interannual variations of pan-Arctic and regional ice extent. In this study we provide a quantitative evaluation of the contribution of the trend to the predictive skill of monthly and seasonal ice extent on the pan-Arctic and regional scales. We focus on the Beaufort Sea where the Barnett Severity Index provides a metric of historical variations in ice conditions over the summer shipping season. The variance about the trend line differs little among various methods of detrending (piecewise linear, quadratic, cubic, exponential). Application of the piecewise linear trend calculation indicates an acceleration of the trend during the 1990s in most of the Arctic subregions. The Barnett Severity Index as well as September pan-Arctic ice extent show significant statistical predictability out to several seasons when the data include the trend. However, this apparent skill largely vanishes when the data are detrended. No region shows significant correlation with the detrended September pan-Arctic ice extent at lead times greater than a month or two; the concurrent correlations are strongest with the East Siberian Sea. The Beaufort Sea’s ice extent as far back as July explains about 20 % of the variance of the Barnett Severity Index, which is primarily a September metric. The Chukchi Sea is the only other region showing a significant association with the Barnett Severity Index, although only at a lead time of a month or two.

Analysis of the development of drifting ice formations impact on marine facilities assessment methods

2021 ◽  
pp. 119-130
Author(s):  
I. G. Silina ◽  
V. A. Ivanov ◽  
T. G. Ponomareva ◽  
S. V. Yakubovskaya
Keyword(s):  
Assessment Methods ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Offshore Pipelines ◽  
Emergency Situations ◽  
High Resource ◽  
Significant Loading ◽  
Ice Loads ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Active Exploration ◽  
Cost Of Construction

The high resource potential of the Arctic determines the active exploration and development of these territories, in particular the Arctic continental shelf. The development of offshore fields is directly related to the issues of marine communications construction and operation in freezing waters. They are associated with minimization of environmental risks, reducing the cost of construction work, and ensuring reliable operation of underwater systems. The ice loads, especially, loads from ice gouging are considered one of the most significant loading conditions for such systems. Deformations of the soil around the pipeline during gouging may cause unacceptable deformations as a result of bending, which may lead to emergency situations. The article discusses the main features of ice gouging and the development of research and assessment methods for ice gouging impact on offshore pipelines. The article also provides the analysis of the research methods, their applications and limitations, and points out further research directions.

scholarly journals Fracture and its Role in Determining Ice Forces on Offshore Structures

1983 ◽  
Vol 4 ◽  
pp. 216-221 ◽  
Author(s):  
A.C. Palmer ◽  
D. J. Goodman ◽  
M. F. Ashby ◽  
A. G. Evans ◽  
J.W. Hutchinson ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Deformation Mode ◽  
Theoretical Models ◽  
Offshore Structures ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Theoretical Treatment ◽  
Strain Rates ◽  
Natural Processes ◽  
Design Loads ◽  
Ice Forces ◽  
Fracture Processes

One of the most conspicuous phenomena in the Arctic Is the fracture of sea ice. It is scarcely possible to travel far without seeing a variety of fracture forms, produced both by natural processes and by human activity.At strain-rates below about 10−4s−1, deformation is dominated by creep, but at higher strain-rates fracture is much more important. One of the reasons for this is the very low fracture toughness of ice. The movements of ice in contact with offshore structures often induce strain-rates well beyond the level at which fracture begins, and so offshore structures will often operate in the fracture regime, and it is fracture processes which will determine the design loads. We consider the different modes of repeated fracture that will occur, and classify them into distinct mechanisms of crushing, spalling, and radial and circumferential cracking. Experimental and field observations are plotted on a deformation mode map. A theoretical treatment of radial cracking confirms that very low loads can propagate cracks to long distances; these loads are small by comparison with those calculated from theoretical models that treat ice as a plastically-deforming continuum.

An explorative object-oriented Bayesian network model for oil spill response in the Arctic Ocean

2019 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 3-14 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mawuli Afenyo ◽  
Faisal Khan ◽  
Brian Veitch ◽  
Adolf K. Y. Ng ◽  
Zaman Sajid ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Bayesian Network ◽  
Arctic Ocean ◽  
Network Model ◽  
Oil Spill ◽  
Object Oriented ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Bayesian Network Model ◽  
The Arctic Ocean ◽  
Oil Spill Response

scholarly journals Microtopographic control on the ground thermal regime in ice wedge polygons

2018 ◽  
Vol 12 (6) ◽  
pp. 1957-1968 ◽  
Author(s):  
Charles J. Abolt ◽  
Michael H. Young ◽  
Adam L. Atchley ◽  
Dylan R. Harp
Keyword(s):  
Thermal Conditions ◽  
Ground Temperature ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Hydrologic Processes ◽  
Ground Temperatures ◽  
Air Temperatures ◽  
Winter Temperatures ◽  
Ice Wedge ◽  
Prudhoe Bay

Abstract. The goal of this research is to constrain the influence of ice wedge polygon microtopography on near-surface ground temperatures. Ice wedge polygon microtopography is prone to rapid deformation in a changing climate, and cracking in the ice wedge depends on thermal conditions at the top of the permafrost; therefore, feedbacks between microtopography and ground temperature can shed light on the potential for future ice wedge cracking in the Arctic. We first report on a year of sub-daily ground temperature observations at 5 depths and 9 locations throughout a cluster of low-centered polygons near Prudhoe Bay, Alaska, and demonstrate that the rims become the coldest zone of the polygon during winter, due to thinner snowpack. We then calibrate a polygon-scale numerical model of coupled thermal and hydrologic processes against this dataset, achieving an RMSE of less than 1.1 ∘C between observed and simulated ground temperature. Finally, we conduct a sensitivity analysis of the model by systematically manipulating the height of the rims and the depth of the troughs and tracking the effects on ice wedge temperature. The results indicate that winter temperatures in the ice wedge are sensitive to both rim height and trough depth, but more sensitive to rim height. Rims act as preferential outlets of subsurface heat; increasing rim size decreases winter temperatures in the ice wedge. Deeper troughs lead to increased snow entrapment, promoting insulation of the ice wedge. The potential for ice wedge cracking is therefore reduced if rims are destroyed or if troughs subside, due to warmer conditions in the ice wedge. These findings can help explain the origins of secondary ice wedges in modern and ancient polygons. The findings also imply that the potential for re-establishing rims in modern thermokarst-affected terrain will be limited by reduced cracking activity in the ice wedges, even if regional air temperatures stabilize.

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