A physics-based method that can predict imminent large solar flares

Science ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 369 (6503) ◽  
pp. 587-591 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kanya Kusano ◽  
Tomoya Iju ◽  
Yumi Bamba ◽  
Satoshi Inoue
Keyword(s):  
Solar Cycle ◽  
Solar Flares ◽  
Solar Surface ◽  
Magnetic Polarity ◽  
Empirical Methods ◽  
Polarity Inversion ◽  
Solar Cycle 24 ◽  
Polarity Inversion Line ◽  
Magnetohydrodynamic Instability ◽  
Cycle 24

Solar flares are highly energetic events in the Sun’s corona that affect Earth’s space weather. The mechanism that drives the onset of solar flares is unknown, hampering efforts to forecast them, which mostly rely on empirical methods. We present the κ-scheme, a physics-based model to predict large solar flares through a critical condition of magnetohydrodynamic instability, triggered by magnetic reconnection. Analysis of the largest (X-class) flares from 2008 to 2019 (during solar cycle 24) shows that the κ-scheme predicts most imminent large solar flares, with a small number of exceptions for confined flares. We conclude that magnetic twist flux density, close to a magnetic polarity inversion line on the solar surface, determines when and where solar flares may occur and how large they can be.

Solar flares, CMEs and solar energetic particle events during solar cycle 24

2018 ◽  
Vol 61 (2) ◽  
pp. 777-785 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bimal Pande ◽  
Seema Pande ◽  
Ramesh Chandra ◽  
Mahesh Chandra Mathpal
Keyword(s):  
Solar Cycle ◽  
Solar Flares ◽  
Energetic Particle ◽  
Solar Energetic Particle ◽  
Solar Energetic Particle Events ◽  
Solar Cycle 24 ◽  
Cycle 24

scholarly journals Descriptive study of X-class flares released in the year 2014, during the double peak of SC-24

2015 ◽  
Vol 11 (S320) ◽  
pp. 330-332
Author(s):  
Ahmed A. Hady ◽  
Marwa H. Mostafa ◽  
Susan W. Samwel
Keyword(s):  
Data Analysis ◽  
Solar Cycle ◽  
Solar Flares ◽  
Descriptive Study ◽  
Energetic Particles ◽  
Main Peak ◽  
Solar Cycles ◽  
Double Peak ◽  
Solar Cycle 24 ◽  
Cycle 24

AbstractDuring the declining phase of the Solar cycle 24, a new peak appeared on January 7, 2014. The release of x-class flares, with the high energetic particles, were found to be more intense than that occurred during the main peak of the same cycle. Few X-class flares were released, lately, during the year 2014. We note that during the last 5 solar cycles, a new peak has appeared, releasing high energetic particles and X-class solar flares, which are called the secondary peak or the double peak of solar cycle. The aim of this descriptive study is to follow the morphological and magnetic changes of the active region before, during, and after the production of X-class flares according to data analysis. Furthermore, the causes of the release of such eruptive storms have been discussed for the period, year 2014, during the double peak of the solar cycle 24.

Characteristics of Sunquake Events Observed in Solar Cycle 24

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexander Kosovichev ◽  
Ivan Sharykin
Keyword(s):  
Solar Cycle ◽  
Solar Flares ◽  
Active Regions ◽  
Impulsive Phase ◽  
High Energy ◽  
Lower Atmosphere ◽  
Solar Dynamics Observatory ◽  
X Ray ◽  
Solar Cycle 24 ◽  
Cycle 24

<p>Helioseismic response to solar flares ("sunquakes") occurs due to localized force or/and momentum impacts observed during the flare impulsive phase in the lower atmosphere. Such impacts may be caused by precipitation of high-energy particles, downward shocks, or magnetic Lorentz force. Understanding the mechanism of sunquakes is a key problem of the flare energy release and transport. Our statistical analysis of M-X class flares observed by the Solar Dynamics Observatory during Solar Cycle 24 has shown that contrary to expectations, many relatively weak M-class flares produced strong sunquakes, while for some powerful X-class flares, helioseismic waves were not observed or were weak. The analysis also revealed that there were active regions characterized by the most efficient generation of sunquakes during the solar cycle. We found that the sunquake power correlates with maximal values of the X-ray flux derivative better than with the X-ray class. The sunquake data challenge the current theories of solar flares.</p>

scholarly journals Ionospheric effects of two solar flares in the maximum of solar cycle 23 and in the minimum of solar cycle 24

2019 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 76-80
Author(s):  
Владимир Смирнов ◽  
Vladimir Smirnov ◽  
Елена Смирнова ◽  
Elena Smirnova
Keyword(s):  
Solar Cycle ◽  
Solar Flares ◽  
Total Duration ◽  
Rate Of Change ◽  
Satellite Systems ◽  
Solar Cycle 23 ◽  
Solar Cycle 24 ◽  
Cycle 24 ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Total Electronic Content

Using data from the GPS and GLONASS navigation satellite systems, we analyze the responses of the mid-latitude ionosphere to the extreme solar flares that occurred at the maximum of solar cycle 23 (October 28, 2003) and at the minimum of solar cycle 24 (September 6, 2017) during the same season at close solar zenith angles. To obtain the response, we use the rate of change of the total electronic content, which is practically independent of characteristics of equipment and is determined only by parameters of a propagation medium (the ionosphere in our case). The ionospheric response is shown to be almost independent of the total duration of the flare. In both cases, the duration of the main response at a level of 0.5 is about 1.5–2 min, whereas the total duration of the response is about 10 min and fairly independent of solar flare importance.

scholarly journals Solar Variation and Super Geomagnetic Storm Event during March 10-31, 2015

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 2469-2472
Keyword(s):  
Magnetic Field ◽  
Solar Cycle ◽  
Geomagnetic Storm ◽  
Space Weather ◽  
Solar Flares ◽  
Storm Event ◽  
Earth Magnetic Field ◽  
Solar Cycle 24 ◽  
Cycle 24

CMEs and solar flares are important solar ejections which are the cause of storm in Heliosphere. These ejections are producing a change in Earth magnetic field. In this paper we have studied heliospheric disturbance of solar cycle 24 during period from 10 March to 31 March 2015. We observed that a huge explosion of magnetic field and plasma from the Sun’s corona on 15 March 2015 and associated solar flares have disturbed space weather towards earth causes strongest geomagnetic storm on 17 March 2015. We found that Dst value reached to its minimum is -223 nT and a FDs during the period on 17 March 2015.

scholarly journals Lyman‐alpha Variability During Solar Flares Over Solar Cycle 24 Using GOES‐15/EUVS‐E

Space Weather ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 18 (7) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ryan O. Milligan ◽  
Hugh S. Hudson ◽  
Phillip C. Chamberlin ◽  
Iain G. Hannah ◽  
Laura A. Hayes
Keyword(s):  
Solar Cycle ◽  
Solar Flares ◽  
Lyman Alpha ◽  
Solar Cycle 24 ◽  
Cycle 24

scholarly journals Ionospheric response to X-class solar flares in the ascending half of the subdued solar cycle 24

2016 ◽  
Vol 125 (6) ◽  
pp. 1235-1244 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rumajyoti Hazarika ◽  
Bitap Raj Kalita ◽  
Pradip Kumar Bhuyan
Keyword(s):  
Solar Cycle ◽  
Solar Flares ◽  
Ionospheric Response ◽  
Solar Cycle 24 ◽  
Cycle 24
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