scholarly journals Efficacy of contact tracing for the containment of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19)

2020 ◽  
pp. jech-2020-214051 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matt J Keeling ◽  
T Deirdre Hollingsworth ◽  
Jonathan M Read
Keyword(s):  
Close Contact ◽  
Control Measure ◽  
Disease Outbreaks ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Public Health Response ◽  
Central Public Health ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact

ObjectiveContact tracing is a central public health response to infectious disease outbreaks, especially in the early stages of an outbreak when specific treatments are limited. Importation of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) from China and elsewhere into the UK highlights the need to understand the impact of contact tracing as a control measure.DesignDetailed survey information on social encounters from over 5800 respondents is coupled to predictive models of contact tracing and control. This is used to investigate the likely efficacy of contact tracing and the distribution of secondary cases that may go untraced.ResultsTaking recent estimates for COVID-19 transmission we predict that under effective contact tracing less than 1 in 6 cases will generate any subsequent untraced infections, although this comes at a high logistical burden with an average of 36 individuals traced per case. Changes to the definition of a close contact can reduce this burden, but with increased risk of untraced cases; we find that tracing using a contact definition requiring more than 4 hours of contact is unlikely to control spread.ConclusionsThe current contact tracing strategy within the UK is likely to identify a sufficient proportion of infected individuals such that subsequent spread could be prevented, although the ultimate success will depend on the rapid detection of cases and isolation of contacts. Given the burden of tracing a large number of contacts to find new cases, there is the potential the system could be overwhelmed if imports of infection occur at a rapid rate.

scholarly journals The Efficacy of Contact Tracing for the Containment of the 2019 Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matt J Keeling ◽  
T Déirdre Hollingsworth ◽  
Jonathan M Read
Keyword(s):  
Close Contact ◽  
Control Measure ◽  
Disease Outbreaks ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Public Health Response ◽  
Central Public Health ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Definition Of ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
The Impact

Contact tracing is a central public health response to infectious disease outbreaks, especially in the early stages of an outbreak when specific treatments are limited. Importation of novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) from China and elsewhere into the United Kingdom highlights the need to understand the impact of contact tracing as a control measure. Using detailed survey information on social encounters coupled to predictive models, we investigate the likely efficacy of the current UK definition of a close contact (within 2 meters for 15 minutes or more) and the distribution of secondary cases that may go untraced. Taking recent estimates for COVID-19 transmission, we show that less than 1 in 5 cases will generate any subsequent untraced cases, although this comes at a high logistical burden with an average of 36.1 individuals (95th percentiles 0-182) traced per case. Changes to the definition of a close contact can reduce this burden, but with increased risk of untraced cases; we estimate that any definition where close contact requires more than 4 hours of contact is likely to lead to uncontrolled spread.

scholarly journals Digital proximity tracing on empirical contact networks for pandemic control

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
G. Cencetti ◽  
G. Santin ◽  
A. Longa ◽  
E. Pigani ◽  
A. Barrat ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Disease Outbreaks ◽  
Physical Distance ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Reproductive Number ◽  
Modeling Framework ◽  
Infectious Disease Outbreaks ◽  
Contact Patterns ◽  
Contact Data ◽  
The Impact

AbstractDigital contact tracing is a relevant tool to control infectious disease outbreaks, including the COVID-19 epidemic. Early work evaluating digital contact tracing omitted important features and heterogeneities of real-world contact patterns influencing contagion dynamics. We fill this gap with a modeling framework informed by empirical high-resolution contact data to analyze the impact of digital contact tracing in the COVID-19 pandemic. We investigate how well contact tracing apps, coupled with the quarantine of identified contacts, can mitigate the spread in real environments. We find that restrictive policies are more effective in containing the epidemic but come at the cost of unnecessary large-scale quarantines. Policy evaluation through their efficiency and cost results in optimized solutions which only consider contacts longer than 15–20 minutes and closer than 2–3 meters to be at risk. Our results show that isolation and tracing can help control re-emerging outbreaks when some conditions are met: (i) a reduction of the reproductive number through masks and physical distance; (ii) a low-delay isolation of infected individuals; (iii) a high compliance. Finally, we observe the inefficacy of a less privacy-preserving tracing involving second order contacts. Our results may inform digital contact tracing efforts currently being implemented across several countries worldwide.

scholarly journals Routine use of immunosuppressants is associated with mortality in hospitalised patients with COVID-19

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 ◽  
pp. 204209862098569
Author(s):  
Phyo K. Myint ◽  
Ben Carter ◽  
Fenella Barlow-Pay ◽  
Roxanna Short ◽  
Alice G. Einarsson ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Medical Attention ◽  
Close Monitoring ◽  
Plain Language ◽  
Discharge Data ◽  
Specific Patient ◽  
Risk Of Death ◽  
Hospitalised Patients ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact

Background: Whilst there is literature on the impact of SARS viruses in the severely immunosuppressed, less is known about the link between routine immunosuppressant use and outcome in COVID-19. Consequently, guidelines on their use vary depending on specific patient populations. Methods: The study population was drawn from the COPE Study (COVID-19 in Older People), a multicentre observational cohort study, across the UK and Italy. Data were collected between 27 February and 28 April 2020 by trained data-collectors and included all unselected consecutive admissions with COVID-19. Load (name/number of medications) and dosage of immunosuppressant were collected along with other covariate data. Primary outcome was time-to-mortality from the date of admission (or) date of diagnosis, if diagnosis was five or more days after admission. Secondary outcomes were Day-14 mortality and time-to-discharge. Data were analysed with mixed-effects, Cox proportional hazards and logistic regression models using non-users of immunosuppressants as the reference group. Results: In total 1184 patients were eligible for inclusion. The median (IQR) age was 74 (62–83), 676 (57%) were male, and 299 (25.3%) died in hospital (total person follow-up 15,540 days). Most patients exhibited at least one comorbidity, and 113 (~10%) were on immunosuppressants. Any immunosuppressant use was associated with increased mortality: aHR 1.87, 95% CI: 1.30, 2.69 (time to mortality) and aOR 1.71, 95% CI: 1.01–2.88 (14-day mortality). There also appeared to be a dose–response relationship. Conclusion: Despite possible indication bias, until further evidence emerges we recommend adhering to public health measures, a low threshold to seek medical advice and close monitoring of symptoms in those who take immunosuppressants routinely regardless of their indication. However, it should be noted that the inability to control for the underlying condition requiring immunosuppressants is a major limitation, and hence caution should be exercised in interpretation of the results. Plain Language Summary Regular Use of Immune Suppressing Drugs is Associated with Increased Risk of Death in Hospitalised Patients with COVID-19 Background: We do not have much information on how the COVID-19 virus affects patients who use immunosuppressants, drugs which inhibit or reduce the activity of the immune system. There are various conflicting views on whether immune-suppressing drugs are beneficial or detrimental in patients with the disease. Methods: This study collected data from 10 hospitals in the UK and one in Italy between February and April 2020 in order to identify any association between the regular use of immunosuppressant medicines and survival in patients who were admitted to hospital with COVID-19. Results: 1184 patients were included in the study, and 10% of them were using immunosuppressants. Any immunosuppressant use was associated with increased risk of death, and the risk appeared to increase if the dose of the medicine was higher. Conclusion: We therefore recommend that patients who take immunosuppressant medicines routinely should carefully adhere to social distancing measures, and seek medical attention early during the COVID-19 pandemic.

scholarly journals 368. Clinical Characteristics of Hospitalized COVID-19 American Indian Patients in Rural Arizona

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (Supplement_1) ◽  
pp. S253-S254
Author(s):  
Amy Nham ◽  
Ryan M Close
Keyword(s):  
American Indians ◽  
Median Number ◽  
Clinic Visit ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Shortness Of Breath ◽  
Early Referral ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Wbc Count ◽  
The Impact ◽  
D Dimer

Abstract Background American Indians have an increased risk of serious complications from COVID-19 due to the high prevalence of comorbidities such as diabetes, heart disease, obesity, and asthma. To date, there has been limited analysis of COVID-19 in the AI population. This study describes the characteristics of hospitalized COVID-19 patients from a well-defined AI population in eastern Arizona. Additionally, we explored the impact of early referral via contact tracing versus those who self-presented. Methods Retrospective chart reviews were completed for patients hospitalized for COVID from March 29 to May 16, 2020. Summary statistics were used to describe demographics, symptoms, pre-existing conditions, and hospitalization data. Results We observed 447 laboratory-confirmed cases of COVID-19, resulting in 71 (15.9%) hospitalizations over a 7-week period and a hospitalization rate of 159 per 1,000 persons. Of the 50 hospitalizations reviewed sequentially, 56% were female, median age of 55 (IQR 44–65). Median number of days hospitalized was 4 (2–6), with 16% requiring intensive care unit support, 15% intubated, 12% readmitted, and 10% deceased. 67% had an epidemiological link, and 32% had an emergency department or outpatient clinic visit within 7 days of hospitalization. All patients were symptomatic; the most common symptoms were cough (90%), shortness of breath (78%), and subjective fever (66%). 86% of patients had a pre-existing condition; the most common pre-existing conditions were diabetes (66%), obesity (58%), and hypertension (52%, Figure 1). All patients had elevated LDH, 94% had elevated CRP, 86% had elevated d-dimer, and 40% had lymphopenia; only 10% had an elevated WBC count and 26% had thrombocytopenia (Table 1). 26% of the patients were referred in by the tracing team (Table 2). Analysis of 500 hospitalizations will be available in October 2020. Conclusion Most AI patients hospitalized had a pre-existing condition, symptoms of cough or shortness of breath, and elevated LDH, CRP, and d-dimer. More research is needed to understand the patterns of COVID-19 related disease in vulnerable populations, like AI/AN, and to examine the utility of early referral by contact tracing teams in rural settings which may guide future tracing strategies. Disclosures All Authors: No reported disclosures

scholarly journals Effect of COVID-19 on childhood Mycoplasma pneumoniae infection in Chengdu, China

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ying Zhang ◽  
Yijie Huang ◽  
Tao Ai ◽  
Jun Luo ◽  
Hanmin Liu
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Mycoplasma Pneumoniae ◽  
Close Contact ◽  
Serum Antibody ◽  
Pathogen Transmission ◽  
Western China ◽  
Public Health Response ◽  
The Public ◽  
Health Response ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Background Following the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, a change in the incidence and transmission of respiratory pathogens was observed. Here, we retrospectively analyzed the impact of COVID-19 on the epidemiologic characteristics of Mycoplasma pneumoniae infection among children in Chengdu, one of the largest cities of western China. Method M. pneumoniae infection was diagnosed in 33,345 pediatric patients with respiratory symptoms at the Chengdu Women’s & Children’s Central Hospital between January 2017 and December 2020, based on a serum antibody titer of ≥1:160 measured by the passive agglutination assay. Differences in infection rates were examined by sex, age, and temporal distribution. Results Two epidemic outbreaks occurred between October-December 2017 and April-December 2019, and two infection peaks were detected in the second and fourth quarters of 2017, 2018, and 2019. Due to the public health response to COVID-19, the number of positive M. pneumoniae cases significantly decreased in the second quarter of 2020. The number of M. pneumoniae infection among children aged 3–6 years was higher than that in other age groups. Conclusions Preschool children are more susceptible to M. pneumoniae infection and close contact appears to be the predominant factor favoring pathogen transmission. The public health response to COVID-19 can effectively control the transmission of M. pneumoniae.

Impact of the Ebola epidemic on clinical outcomes of HIV-infected soldiers and their dependents in Sierra Leone

2018 ◽  
Vol 30 (2) ◽  
pp. 106-112 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elizabeth Nagel ◽  
Michael J Blackowicz ◽  
Foday Sahr ◽  
Olamide D Jarrett
Keyword(s):  
Clinical Outcomes ◽  
Sierra Leone ◽  
Repeated Measures ◽  
Disease Outbreaks ◽  
Armed Forces ◽  
Hiv Treatment ◽  
Hiv Care ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
The Republic ◽  
The Impact

The impact of the 2014–2016 Ebola epidemic in West Africa on human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) treatment in Sierra Leone is unknown, especially for groups with higher HIV prevalence such as the military. Using a retrospective study design, clinical outcomes were evaluated prior to and during the epidemic for 264 HIV-infected soldiers of the Republic of Sierra Leone Armed Forces (RSLAF) and their dependents receiving HIV treatment at the primary RSLAF HIV clinic. Medical records were abstracted for baseline clinical data and clinic attendance. Estimated risk of lost to follow-up (LTFU), default, and number of days without antiretroviral therapy (DWA) were calculated using repeated measures general estimating equations adjusted for age and gender. Due to missing data, 262 patients were included in the final analyses. There was higher risk of LTFU throughout the Ebola epidemic in Sierra Leone compared to the pre-Ebola baseline, with the largest increase in LTFU risk occurring at the peak of the epidemic (relative risk: 3.22, 95% CI: 2.22–4.67). There was an increased risk of default and DWA during the Ebola epidemic for soldiers but not for their dependents. The risk of LTFU, default, and DWA stabilized once the epidemic was largely resolved but remained elevated compared to the pre-Ebola baseline. Our findings demonstrate the negative and potentially lasting impact of the Ebola epidemic on HIV care in Sierra Leone and highlight the need to develop strategies to minimize disruptions in HIV care with future disease outbreaks.

scholarly journals P0559AKI SEASONALITY IN ENGLAND

2020 ◽  
Vol 35 (Supplement_3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Esther Wong ◽  
Dorothea Nitsch
Keyword(s):  
Cox Regression ◽  
Winter Season ◽  
Kidney Injury ◽  
Seasonal Effect ◽  
Winter Mortality ◽  
Age Group ◽  
Hospitalised Patients ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Background and Aims Incidence of Acute Kidney Injury (AKI) is known to be seasonal, peaking in winter months among hospitalised patients. Previous studies have suggested that the seasonality of AKI is likely to be influenced by the seasonality of the underlying acute illnesses that are associated with AKI. Mortality of patients with AKI has also been reported as being higher in winter, reflecting well-described excess winter mortality associations. Here we describe the seasonal variations of AKI alerts in England and the associated mortality rate using linked national databases. Method Serum creatinine changes compatible with KDIGO AKI stage 1, 2 and 3 are sent by laboratories in England as AKI alerts to the treating clinicians and the UK Renal Registry (UKRR). We linked the electronic AKI alerts to the Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) data, to identify patients who were hospitalised. We carried out descriptive statistics, and investigate the seasonal effect to the 30-day patient mortality from date of getting AKI alert, using multivariable Cox regression and sequentially adjusting for age, sex, Index of multiple deprivation (IMD) and peak AKI stage Results Winter has the highest number of AKI episodes (N=81,276), which is 6% higher than that in summer (N=76,329) (Table 1). For patients who had an AKI episode and admitted to hospitals, the crude 30-day mortality is higher in the winter season when compared to the summer [HR 1.28 (1.25-1.31), p<0.01] (Figure 1). After adjusting season by age, peak AKI stage, IMD and sex, winter season still has significantly higher 30-day mortality than summer [HR 1.24 (1.21-1.27), p<0.01]. Winter mortality peak is confounded by age and AKI severity, which explained the drop of hazard ratio at winter peaks; whereas season is not confounded by deprivation and sex. The pattern of seasonality varies with age, in age group 18-39, there were 26.1% of AKI episodes in summer and 23.3% in winter, whereas in age group >75, there were 23.7% in summer and 27.1% in winter. Conclusion Analysis of England data confirms seasonal peak in AKI during winter months. Additionally it shows increased risk of mortality for patients with AKI in winter months. Future work will investigate the impact of comorbidities and case-mix on outcomes. By understanding the seasonal variation of AKI, we can potentially plan preventive care and improve clinical practice.

scholarly journals Ethics of instantaneous contact tracing using mobile phone apps in the control of the COVID-19 pandemic

2020 ◽  
Vol 46 (7) ◽  
pp. 427-431 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael J Parker ◽  
Christophe Fraser ◽  
Lucie Abeler-Dörner ◽  
David Bonsall
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Infectious Disease ◽  
Mobile Phone ◽  
Public Health Practice ◽  
Disease Outbreaks ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Mobile Phone Data ◽  
Public Health Response ◽  
Infectious Disease Outbreaks ◽  
Ethical Implications

In this paper we discuss ethical implications of the use of mobile phone apps in the control of the COVID-19 pandemic. Contact tracing is a well-established feature of public health practice during infectious disease outbreaks and epidemics. However, the high proportion of pre-symptomatic transmission in COVID-19 means that standard contact tracing methods are too slow to stop the progression of infection through the population. To address this problem, many countries around the world have deployed or are developing mobile phone apps capable of supporting instantaneous contact tracing. Informed by the on-going mapping of ‘proximity events’ these apps are intended both to inform public health policy and to provide alerts to individuals who have been in contact with a person with the infection. The proposed use of mobile phone data for ‘intelligent physical distancing’ in such contexts raises a number of important ethical questions. In our paper, we outline some ethical considerations that need to be addressed in any deployment of this kind of approach as part of a multidimensional public health response. We also, briefly, explore the implications for its use in future infectious disease outbreaks.

scholarly journals The Perceived Impact of Suicide Bereavement on Specific Interpersonal Relationships: A Qualitative Study of Survey Data

2019 ◽  
Vol 16 (10) ◽  
pp. 1801 ◽  
Author(s):  
Valeriya Azorina ◽  
Nicola Morant ◽  
Hedvig Nesse ◽  
Fiona Stevenson ◽  
David Osborn ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Interpersonal Relationships ◽  
Online Survey ◽  
Extended Family ◽  
Social Withdrawal ◽  
Free Text ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Suicide Bereavement ◽  
Social Discomfort ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact

People bereaved by suicide have an increased risk of suicide and suicide attempt, yet report receiving less support than people bereaved by other sudden deaths. Reductions in support may contribute to suicide risk, yet their nature is unclear. We explored the impact of suicide bereavement on the interpersonal relationships of young adults in the UK using an online survey to collect qualitative data. We conducted thematic analysis of free-text responses from 499 adults to questions capturing the impact of bereavement on relationships with partners, close friends, close family, extended family, and other contacts. We identified four main themes describing the changes in relationships following the suicide: (1) Social discomfort over the death (stigma and taboo; painfulness for self or others to discuss; socially prescribed grief reactions); (2) social withdrawal (loss of social confidence; withdrawal as a coping mechanism); (3) shared bereavement experience creating closeness and avoidance; (4) attachments influenced by fear of further losses (overprotectiveness towards others; avoiding attachments as protective). These findings contribute to understanding deficits in support and pathways to suicidality after suicide bereavement. Such disrupted attachments add to the burden of grief and could be addressed by public education on how to support those bereaved by suicide.

The impact of the novel coronavirus on trauma and orthopaedics in the UK

2020 ◽  
Vol 81 (4) ◽  
pp. 1-6 ◽  
Author(s):  
Catrin Morgan ◽  
Aashish K Ahluwalia ◽  
Arash Aframian ◽  
Lily Li ◽  
Stephen Ng Man Sun
Keyword(s):  
Orthopaedic Surgery ◽  
Musculoskeletal Injury ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Front Line ◽  
Orthopaedic Patients ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Injury Burden ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact ◽  
British Orthopaedic Association

At first glance, the novel coronavirus pandemic and orthopaedic surgery appear separate entities. Orthopaedic surgeons are not generally considered front-line staff in terms of the treatment of the disease that the novel coronavirus causes compared with anaesthetic and medical colleagues. However, the impact that the novel coronavirus is likely to have on the musculoskeletal injury burden and the morbidity associated with chronic musculoskeletal disease is significant. This article summarises the strategies currently being developed for the remodelling of orthopaedic services in the UK and the emergency British Orthopaedic Association Standards for Trauma and Orthopaedic guidelines released on 24 March 2020 in managing urgent orthopaedic patients during the novel coronavirus pandemic.

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