scholarly journals Numerical prediction of ice-jam profiles in lower Athabasca River

2019 ◽  
Vol 46 (8) ◽  
pp. 722-731
Author(s):  
Spyros Beltaos
Keyword(s):  
Data Sets ◽  
Ice Jams ◽  
Athabasca River ◽  
Fort Mcmurray ◽  
Ice Jam ◽  
Ice Breakup ◽  
Sediment Loads ◽  
User Friendly ◽  
Water Level Measurements ◽  
The City

A recent study of dynamic ice breakup processes and their erosional potential in the Lower Athabasca River concluded that breakup can result in very large sediment loads, which cannot be predicted at present. As a first step towards building suitable modelling capability, a user-friendly, public-domain, ice jam model is calibrated and validated using 2013 and 2014 water level measurements as well as historical data sets by others. The calibrated model is shown to reliably compute the profiles of different ice jams occurring in a 60 km reach that extends both above and below Fort McMurray. The model also enabled development of an ice jam stage-flow relationship for the city of Fort McMurray, which can help assess present and future, climate-modified, flood risk.

Analysis of breakup and ice jams on the Athabasca River at Fort McMurray, Alberta

1984 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 444-458 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. D. Andres ◽  
P. F. Doyle
Keyword(s):  
Internal Friction ◽  
Open Water ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Roughness Coefficient ◽  
Produce Water ◽  
Ice Jams ◽  
Athabasca River ◽  
Fort Mcmurray ◽  
Ice Jam ◽  
Clearwater River

During breakup, severe ice jams form at Fort McMurray, Alberta because of the dramatic change in the character of the Athabasca River at that location. Such jams, which produce water levels in the order of 10 m above the normal open water stage, were documented in 1977, 1978, and 1979. Additional channel surveys and improved estimates of discharge made since the initial analysis have redefined the ice jam characteristics. The Manning roughness coefficient of the underside of the ice jams was found to be 0.072. The new discharge estimates, which were up to twice those previously reported, result in a calculated coefficient of internal friction of 0.8–2.7. This is 30–100% greater than previous estimates, but still similar to values determined for ice jams at other locations.Even with the variation in the coefficient of internal friction, the river stage due to an ice jam at Fort McMurray could be computed with reasonable accuracy for a range of given discharges. If jams form downstream of the mouth of the Clearwater River at discharges greater than 800 m3/s (considerably less than the 1-in-2-year open water flood), flooding will occur within lower Fort McMurray. Unfortunately, the frequency of such an event is unknown because the probabilities of both the discharge being exceeded and the jam occurrence cannot be defined. Key words: ice, breakup, ice jam, ice roughness, flooding, hydraulics.

Ice jam mitigation

1990 ◽  
Vol 17 (5) ◽  
pp. 675-685 ◽  
Author(s):  
Harold S. Belore ◽  
Brian C. Burrell ◽  
Spyros Beltaos
Keyword(s):  
Key Words ◽  
Carrying Capacity ◽  
Flood Control ◽  
Human Life ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
River Ice ◽  
Ice Jams ◽  
Ice Jam ◽  
Ice Breakup

In Canada, flooding due to the rise in water levels upstream of an ice jam, or the temporary exceedance of the flow and ice-carrying capacity of a channel upon release of an ice jam, has resulted in the loss of human life and extensive economic losses. Ice jam mitigation is a component of river ice management which includes all activities carried out to prevent or remove ice jams, or to reduce the damages that may result from an ice jam event. This paper presents a brief overview of measures to mitigate the damaging effects of ice jams and contains a discussion on their application to Canadian rivers. Key words: controlled ice breakup, flood control, ice jams, ice management, river ice.

Analyse hydro-météorologique des débâcles de glaces de la rivière Nashwaak (Nouveau-Brunswick)

1992 ◽  
Vol 19 (2) ◽  
pp. 349-354
Author(s):  
S. Hebabi ◽  
N. El-Jabi ◽  
S. Sarraf
Keyword(s):  
New Brunswick ◽  
Key Words ◽  
Predictive Model ◽  
Dimensional Analysis ◽  
Predictive Models ◽  
Meteorological Factors ◽  
Ice Jams ◽  
Ice Jam ◽  
Ice Breakup ◽  
Meteorological Analysis

The problems associated with ice cover formation, development, and breakup are numerous. In fact, every year ice breakup and ice jams cause damage throughout Canada. In New Brunswick, ice breakup is responsible for 35% of floods and 70% of damage to bridges. This paper describes a hydro-meteorological analysis of ice breakup along the Nashwaak River in New Brunswick. Thirteen events that occur between 1969 and 1982 were studied. First, river records were used to determine a breakup initiation index. A dimensional analysis was then performed integrating the index with meteorological variables and river flows. Although there was no resemblance between variations of meteorological factors from one event to the next, the results suggest that the index formulated has potential as a tool for development of predictive models for ice breakup. Key words: ice breakup, ice jam, floods, meteorology, flow, predictive model, damages, bridges, Nashwaak River.

River ice breakup processes: recent advances and future directions

2007 ◽  
Vol 34 (6) ◽  
pp. 703-716 ◽  
Author(s):  
Spyros Beltaos
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Effective Means ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Ice Cover ◽  
Aquatic Life ◽  
Ice Jams ◽  
Ice Jam ◽  
Ice Breakup ◽  
Extreme Flood ◽  
Mitigation Methods

The breakup of the winter ice cover is a brief but seminal event in the regime of northern rivers, and in the life cycle of river and basin ecosystems. Breakup ice jams can cause extreme flood events, with major impacts on riverside communities, aquatic life, infrastructure, navigation, and hydropower generation. Related concerns are underscored by the issue of climate change and the faster warming that is predicted for northern parts of the globe. Advances in knowledge of breakup processes and related topics, achieved over the past 15 years or so, are outlined. They pertain to breakup initiation and ice-jam formation, ice-jam properties and numerical modelling of ice jams, waves generated by ice-jam releases, forecasting and mitigation methods, sediment transport, ecological aspects, and climate-change impacts. Major knowledge gaps are associated with the dynamic interaction of moving ice with the flow and with the stationary ice cover. Increasing computing capacity and remote sensing sophistication are expected to provide effective means for bridging these gaps. Key words: climate, ecology, forecasting, ice jam, modelling, onset, sediment, wave.

Forecasting breakup water levels at Fort McMurray, Alberta, using multiple linear regression

2006 ◽  
Vol 33 (9) ◽  
pp. 1227-1238 ◽  
Author(s):  
C Mahabir ◽  
F E Hicks ◽  
C Robichaud ◽  
A Robinson Fayek
Keyword(s):  
Linear Regression ◽  
Multiple Linear Regression ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Linear Regression Analysis ◽  
Statistical Modelling ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
River Ice ◽  
Fort Mcmurray ◽  
Ice Jam ◽  
Ice Breakup

Spring breakup on northern rivers can result in ice jams that present severe flood risk to adjacent communities. Such events can occur extremely rapidly, leaving little or no advanced warning to residents. Fort McMurray, Alberta, is one such community, and at present no forecasting model exists for this site. Many of the previous studies regarding ice jam flood forecasting methods, in general, cite the lack of a comprehensive database as an obstacle to statistical modelling. This paper documents the development of an extensive database containing 106 variables, and covering the period from 1972 to 2004, that was created for ice jam forecasting on the Athabasca River. Through multiple linear regression analysis, equations were developed to model the maximum water level during spring breakup. The optimal model contained a combination of hydrological and meteorological data collected from early fall until the day before river ice breakup. The number of historical years of data, rather than the scope of variables, was found to be the major limitation in verifying the results presented in this study.Key words: river ice, breakup jam, multiple linear regression.

Surges from ice jam releases: a case study

1982 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 276-284 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Beltaos ◽  
B. G. Krishnappan
Keyword(s):  
Water Flow ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Ice Jams ◽  
One Dimensional ◽  
Ice Jam ◽  
Ice Breakup ◽  
The Reformation ◽  
Maximum Water ◽  
Ice Water

Accounts by witnesses of spring ice breakup in rivers often mention violent ice runs with extreme water speeds and rapidly rising water levels. Such events are believed to follow the release of major ice jams. To gain preliminary understanding of this problem, an attempt is made to reconstruct a partially documented ice jam release reported recently by others. The equations of the ice–water flow that occurs after the release of an ice jam are formulated. It is shown that the problem may be approximately treated as a one-dimensional, unsteady, water-only flow of total depth identical to that of the ice–water flow, and average velocity. The retarding effect of the frequently encountered intact ice cover below the jam is considered implicitly, that is, by adjusting the friction factor so as to make the predicted and observed downstream stages equal. The effects of jam length are considered next by assuming longer jams of the same maximum water depth. The duration of the surging velocities increases with jam length and so does the peak stage. Less than 2 h after the jam release the surge was arrested and a new jam formed, causing further stage increases. Present capabilities of modelling the reformation process are discussed and the major unknowns identified.

Ice-jam floods modeling in frameworks of intelligent system for river monitoring

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Inna Krylenko ◽  
Andrey Alabyan ◽  
Viacheslav Zelentsov ◽  
Vitaly Belikov ◽  
Alexey Sazonov ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Hydrodynamic Model ◽  
Intelligent System ◽  
Flood Forecasting ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Model Description ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Adequate Model ◽  
Ice Jams ◽  
Ice Jam ◽  
The City

<p>This paper presents the research results related to the development of an intelligent system for monitoring and assessing the state of natural systems (PROSTOR), which was tested in the area from the city of Velikiy Ustyug to the city of Kotlas on the Northern Dvina River. It is one of the most vulnerable places in Russia to spring snow-melt and ice-jams induced floods.</p><p>The proposed automated flood forecasting technology is based on the concept of a multi-model description of complex natural objects implementing a mechanism of the selection and adaptation of parameters of the most adequate model for each specific situation. The computational core of PROSTOR is the two-dimensional hydrodynamic model STREAM_2D and its newer version STREAM_2D_CUDA based on the numerical solution of the shallow water equations with discontinuous bottom. Additional hydraulic resistance due to the ice roughness and decrease in the flow cross-section due to ice-caused congestion were taken into account for modeling the ice-jams water levels. The forecasting capabilities of the system are secured by the prediction of water levels at the gauging stations located upstream from Velikiy Ustyug basing either on neural networks, or by means of linking with the runoff formation model ECOMAG and using prognostic meteorological information.</p><p>The system was built with the use of a service-oriented architecture, that provides flexible interaction between software modules, implementing hydrodynamic and hydrological models; modules of collecting and processing of heterogeneous data, including data from gauging stations and remote sensing data; control modules, etc. All system components are realized as web services and can be geographically distributed and localized in various organizations, cities and countries. All results of the system implementation, including the results of flooded zones calculations, flow parameters there, as well as satellite images are available via the geoportal.</p><p>Models parameters were justified on the base of numerical experiments and simulations of the floods of 1980-2016 period, including more than 18 significant cases of ice-jamming. Grouping of model parameters according to the height of the ice-jam induced water levels suggested for the implementation of the hydrodynamic model incorporated into intelligent information system of river floods monitoring. Operational flood forecasting mode of the system was tested during 2017 – 2019 years under support of Russian Science Foundation project № 17-11-01254.</p>

Observations of ice jam release waves on the Athabasca River near Fort McMurray, Alberta

2007 ◽  
Vol 34 (4) ◽  
pp. 473-484 ◽  
Author(s):  
T Kowalczyk Hutchison ◽  
F E Hicks
Keyword(s):  
Wave Propagation ◽  
Wave Speed ◽  
Flood Forecasting ◽  
River Ice ◽  
Historical Records ◽  
Athabasca River ◽  
Fort Mcmurray ◽  
Release Wave ◽  
Ice Jam ◽  
High Release

This paper presents an investigation of all documented ice jam release events for the Athabasca River at Fort McMurray, Alberta. A review of the historical records indicates that release waves in excess of 3 m and propagation speeds of 4–5 m/s are not uncommon. Numerous occurrences of increases in wave speed and magnitude suggest that temporary stalling of ice runs may be a significant factor in release event propagation. Detailed measurements of ice jam release events in 2001–2003, including most notably a 4.3 m high release wave measured in 2002, provide unprecedented data describing ice jam release wave propagation and suggest that continued propagation of a portion of the release wave downstream of a reformed jam could be a significant factor in immediate re-release.Key words: ice jam, floods, flood forecasting, river ice, ice jam release.

scholarly journals Use of classification algorithms for the ice jams forecasting problem

2020 ◽  
Vol 163 ◽  
pp. 02008
Author(s):  
Natalia Semenova ◽  
Alexey Sazonov ◽  
Inna Krylenko ◽  
Natalia Frolova
Keyword(s):  
Nearest Neighbor ◽  
Forecast Accuracy ◽  
Classification Algorithms ◽  
K Nearest Neighbor ◽  
Ice Jams ◽  
Ice Jam ◽  
Meteorological Features ◽  
The City

In the research the prediction of occurrence of ice jam based on the K Nearest Neighbor method was considered by example of the city of Velikiy Ustyug, located at the confluence of the Sukhona and Yug Rivers. A forecast accuracy of 82% was achieved based on selected most significant hydrological and meteorological features.

scholarly journals River predisposition to ice jams: a simplified geospatial model

2017 ◽  
Vol 17 (7) ◽  
pp. 1033-1045 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stéphane De Munck ◽  
Yves Gauthier ◽  
Monique Bernier ◽  
Karem Chokmani ◽  
Serge Légaré
Keyword(s):  
False Negative ◽  
Channel Morphology ◽  
River Channel ◽  
Geospatial Data ◽  
River Ice ◽  
Main Question ◽  
Ice Jams ◽  
Ice Jam ◽  
Ice Breakup ◽  
Broken Ice

Abstract. Floods resulting from river ice jams pose a great risk to many riverside municipalities in Canada. The location of an ice jam is mainly influenced by channel morphology. The goal of this work was therefore to develop a simplified geospatial model to estimate the predisposition of a river channel to ice jams. Rather than predicting the timing of river ice breakup, the main question here was to predict where the broken ice is susceptible to jam based on the river's geomorphological characteristics. Thus, six parameters referred to potential causes for ice jams in the literature were initially selected: presence of an island, narrowing of the channel, high sinuosity, presence of a bridge, confluence of rivers, and slope break. A GIS-based tool was used to generate the aforementioned factors over regular-spaced segments along the entire channel using available geospatial data. An ice jam predisposition index (IJPI) was calculated by combining the weighted optimal factors. Three Canadian rivers (province of Québec) were chosen as test sites. The resulting maps were assessed from historical observations and local knowledge. Results show that 77 % of the observed ice jam sites on record occurred in river sections that the model considered as having high or medium predisposition. This leaves 23 % of false negative errors (missed occurrence). Between 7 and 11 % of the highly predisposed river sections did not have an ice jam on record (false-positive cases). Results, limitations, and potential improvements are discussed.

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