Observations of ice jam release waves on the Athabasca River near Fort McMurray, Alberta

2007 ◽  
Vol 34 (4) ◽  
pp. 473-484 ◽  
Author(s):  
T Kowalczyk Hutchison ◽  
F E Hicks
Keyword(s):  
Wave Propagation ◽  
Wave Speed ◽  
Flood Forecasting ◽  
River Ice ◽  
Historical Records ◽  
Athabasca River ◽  
Fort Mcmurray ◽  
Release Wave ◽  
Ice Jam ◽  
High Release

This paper presents an investigation of all documented ice jam release events for the Athabasca River at Fort McMurray, Alberta. A review of the historical records indicates that release waves in excess of 3 m and propagation speeds of 4–5 m/s are not uncommon. Numerous occurrences of increases in wave speed and magnitude suggest that temporary stalling of ice runs may be a significant factor in release event propagation. Detailed measurements of ice jam release events in 2001–2003, including most notably a 4.3 m high release wave measured in 2002, provide unprecedented data describing ice jam release wave propagation and suggest that continued propagation of a portion of the release wave downstream of a reformed jam could be a significant factor in immediate re-release.Key words: ice jam, floods, flood forecasting, river ice, ice jam release.

Transferability of a neuro-fuzzy river ice jam flood forecasting model

2007 ◽  
Vol 48 (3) ◽  
pp. 188-201 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. Mahabir ◽  
F.E. Hicks ◽  
A. Robinson Fayek
Keyword(s):  
Flood Forecasting ◽  
River Ice ◽  
Forecasting Model ◽  
Ice Jam ◽  
Neuro Fuzzy

scholarly journals A Stochastic Modelling Approach to Forecast Real-time Ice Jam Flood Severity Along the Transborder (New Brunswick/Maine) Saint John River of North America

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Apurba Das ◽  
Sujata Budhathoki ◽  
Karl-Erich Lindenschmidt
Keyword(s):  
Land Surface ◽  
Human Life ◽  
Stochastic Modelling ◽  
Stochastic Approach ◽  
Monte Carlo Analysis ◽  
Flood Forecasting ◽  
River Ice ◽  
Ice Jam ◽  
Saint John ◽  
Modelling Approach

Abstract Ice jam floods (IJF) are a major concern for many riverine communities, government and non-government authorities and companies in the higher latitudes of the northern hemisphere. Ice jam related flooding can result in millions of dollars of property damages, loss of human life and adverse impacts on ecology. Ice jam flood forecasting is challenging as its formation mechanism is chaotic and depends on numerous unpredictable hydraulic and river ice factors. In this study, Modélisation environnementale communautaire – surface hydrology (MESH), a semi-distributed physically-based land-surface hydrological modelling system was used to acquire a 10-day flow forecast, an important boundary condition for any modelling of river ice-jam flood forecasting. A stochastic modelling approach was then applied to simulate hundreds of possible ice-jam scenarios using the hydrodynamic river ice model RIVICE within a Monte-Carlo Analysis (MOCA) framework for the Saint John River from Fort Kent to Grand Falls. First, a 10-day outlook was simulated to provide insight on the severity of ice jam flooding during spring breakup. Then, 3-day forecasts were modelled to provide longitudinal profiles of exceedance probabilities of ice jam flood staging along the river during the ice-cover breakup. Overall, results show that the stochastic approach performed well to estimate maximum probable ice-jam backwater level elevations for the spring 2021 breakup season.

Forecasting breakup water levels at Fort McMurray, Alberta, using multiple linear regression

2006 ◽  
Vol 33 (9) ◽  
pp. 1227-1238 ◽  
Author(s):  
C Mahabir ◽  
F E Hicks ◽  
C Robichaud ◽  
A Robinson Fayek
Keyword(s):  
Linear Regression ◽  
Multiple Linear Regression ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Linear Regression Analysis ◽  
Statistical Modelling ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
River Ice ◽  
Fort Mcmurray ◽  
Ice Jam ◽  
Ice Breakup

Spring breakup on northern rivers can result in ice jams that present severe flood risk to adjacent communities. Such events can occur extremely rapidly, leaving little or no advanced warning to residents. Fort McMurray, Alberta, is one such community, and at present no forecasting model exists for this site. Many of the previous studies regarding ice jam flood forecasting methods, in general, cite the lack of a comprehensive database as an obstacle to statistical modelling. This paper documents the development of an extensive database containing 106 variables, and covering the period from 1972 to 2004, that was created for ice jam forecasting on the Athabasca River. Through multiple linear regression analysis, equations were developed to model the maximum water level during spring breakup. The optimal model contained a combination of hydrological and meteorological data collected from early fall until the day before river ice breakup. The number of historical years of data, rather than the scope of variables, was found to be the major limitation in verifying the results presented in this study.Key words: river ice, breakup jam, multiple linear regression.

Athabasca River ice jam formation and release events in 2006 and 2007

2009 ◽  
Vol 55 (2) ◽  
pp. 249-261 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuntong She ◽  
Robyn Andrishak ◽  
Faye Hicks ◽  
Brian Morse ◽  
Edward Stander ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
River Ice ◽  
Athabasca River ◽  
Ice Jam

Analysis of breakup and ice jams on the Athabasca River at Fort McMurray, Alberta

1984 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 444-458 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. D. Andres ◽  
P. F. Doyle
Keyword(s):  
Internal Friction ◽  
Open Water ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Roughness Coefficient ◽  
Produce Water ◽  
Ice Jams ◽  
Athabasca River ◽  
Fort Mcmurray ◽  
Ice Jam ◽  
Clearwater River

During breakup, severe ice jams form at Fort McMurray, Alberta because of the dramatic change in the character of the Athabasca River at that location. Such jams, which produce water levels in the order of 10 m above the normal open water stage, were documented in 1977, 1978, and 1979. Additional channel surveys and improved estimates of discharge made since the initial analysis have redefined the ice jam characteristics. The Manning roughness coefficient of the underside of the ice jams was found to be 0.072. The new discharge estimates, which were up to twice those previously reported, result in a calculated coefficient of internal friction of 0.8–2.7. This is 30–100% greater than previous estimates, but still similar to values determined for ice jams at other locations.Even with the variation in the coefficient of internal friction, the river stage due to an ice jam at Fort McMurray could be computed with reasonable accuracy for a range of given discharges. If jams form downstream of the mouth of the Clearwater River at discharges greater than 800 m3/s (considerably less than the 1-in-2-year open water flood), flooding will occur within lower Fort McMurray. Unfortunately, the frequency of such an event is unknown because the probabilities of both the discharge being exceeded and the jam occurrence cannot be defined. Key words: ice, breakup, ice jam, ice roughness, flooding, hydraulics.

scholarly journals Numerical prediction of ice-jam profiles in lower Athabasca River

2019 ◽  
Vol 46 (8) ◽  
pp. 722-731
Author(s):  
Spyros Beltaos
Keyword(s):  
Data Sets ◽  
Ice Jams ◽  
Athabasca River ◽  
Fort Mcmurray ◽  
Ice Jam ◽  
Ice Breakup ◽  
Sediment Loads ◽  
User Friendly ◽  
Water Level Measurements ◽  
The City

A recent study of dynamic ice breakup processes and their erosional potential in the Lower Athabasca River concluded that breakup can result in very large sediment loads, which cannot be predicted at present. As a first step towards building suitable modelling capability, a user-friendly, public-domain, ice jam model is calibrated and validated using 2013 and 2014 water level measurements as well as historical data sets by others. The calibrated model is shown to reliably compute the profiles of different ice jams occurring in a 60 km reach that extends both above and below Fort McMurray. The model also enabled development of an ice jam stage-flow relationship for the city of Fort McMurray, which can help assess present and future, climate-modified, flood risk.

Measuring the skill of an operational ice jam flood forecasting system

2021 ◽  
Vol 52 ◽  
pp. 102001
Author(s):  
Brandon S. Williams ◽  
Apurba Das ◽  
Peter Johnston ◽  
Bin Luo ◽  
Karl-Erich Lindenschmidt
Keyword(s):  
Flood Forecasting ◽  
Ice Jam ◽  
Forecasting System

scholarly journals A novel semi-implicit scheme for elastodynamics and wave propagation in nearly and truly incompressible solids

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chennakesava Kadapa
Keyword(s):  
Wave Propagation ◽  
Wave Speed ◽  
Critical Time ◽  
Incompressible Material ◽  
Implicit Scheme ◽  
Bulk Wave ◽  
Lumped Mass ◽  
Time Step ◽  
Material Models ◽  
Shear Wave Speed

AbstractThis paper presents a novel semi-implicit scheme for elastodynamics and wave propagation problems in nearly and truly incompressible material models. The proposed methodology is based on the efficient computation of the Schur complement for the mixed displacement-pressure formulation using a lumped mass matrix for the displacement field. By treating the deviatoric stress explicitly and the pressure field implicitly, the critical time step is made to be limited by shear wave speed rather than the bulk wave speed. The convergence of the proposed scheme is demonstrated by computing error norms for the recently proposed LBB-stable BT2/BT1 element. Using the numerical examples modelled with nearly and truly incompressible Neo-Hookean and Ogden material models, it is demonstrated that the proposed semi-implicit scheme yields significant computational benefits over the fully explicit and the fully implicit schemes for finite strain elastodynamics simulations involving incompressible materials. Finally, the applicability of the proposed scheme for wave propagation problems in nearly and truly incompressible material models is illustrated.

Speed of stress wave propagation in lung

1986 ◽  
Vol 61 (2) ◽  
pp. 701-705 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. T. Yen ◽  
Y. C. Fung ◽  
H. H. Ho ◽  
G. Butterman
Keyword(s):  
Wave Propagation ◽  
Stress Wave ◽  
Impact Loading ◽  
Wave Speed ◽  
Dynamic Pressure ◽  
Transpulmonary Pressure ◽  
Lung Parenchyma ◽  
Surface Velocity ◽  
Stress Wave Propagation ◽  
Rabbit Lung

The speed of stress waves in the lung parenchyma was investigated to understand why, among all internal organs, the lung is the most easily injured when an animal is subjected to an impact loading. The speed of the sound is much less in the lung than that in other organs. To analyze the dynamic response of the lung to impact loading, it is necessary to know the speed of internal wave propagation. Excised lungs of the rabbit and the goat were impacted with water jet at dynamic pressure in the range of 7–35 kPa (1–5 psi) and surface velocity of 1–15 m/s. The stress wave was measured by pressure transducer. The distance between the point of impact and the sensor at another point on the far side of the lung and the transit time of the stress wave were measured. The wave speed in the goat lung was found to vary from 31.4 to 64.7 m/s when the transpulmonary pressure Pa-Ppl was varied from 0 to 20 cmH2O where Pa represents airway pressure and Ppl represents pleural pressure. In rabbit lung the wave speed varied from 16.5 to 36.9 m/s when Pa-Ppl was varied from 0 to 16 cmH2O. Using measured values of the bulk modulus, shear modulus, and density of the parenchyma, reasonable agreement between theoretical and experimental wave speeds were obtained.

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