scholarly journals Regional effects of alternative climate change and management scenarios on timber production, economic profitability, and carbon stocks in Norway spruce forests in Finland

2016 ◽  
Vol 46 (2) ◽  
pp. 274-283 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Zubizarreta-Gerendiain ◽  
J. Garcia-Gonzalo ◽  
H. Strandman ◽  
K. Jylhä ◽  
H. Peltola
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Norway Spruce ◽  
Carbon Stocks ◽  
Timber Production ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Management Scenarios ◽  
Regional Effects ◽  
Current Climate ◽  
Management Plans ◽  
Management Recommendations

We studied regional effects of alternative climate change and management scenarios on timber production, its economic profitability (net present value (NPV), with 2% interest rate), and carbon stocks over a 90 year simulation period in Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) forests located in southern, central, and northern Finland. We also compared the results of optimised management plans (maximizing incomes) and fixed management scenarios. Business as usual (BAU) management recommendations were used as the basis for alternative management scenarios. The forest ecosystem model SIMA together with a forest optimisation tool was employed. To consider the uncertainties related to climate change, we applied two climate change scenarios (SRES B1 and SRES A2) in addition to the current climate. Results showed that timber production, NPV, and carbon stocks of forests would reduce in southern Finland, opposite to northern Finland, especially under the strong climate change scenario (SRES A2) compared with the current climate. In central Finland, climate change would have little effect. The use of optimised management plans also resulted in higher timber yield, NPV, and carbon stock of forests compared with the use of a single management scenario, regardless of forest region and climate scenario applied. In the future, we may need to modify the current BAU management recommendations to properly adapt to the changing climatic conditions.

scholarly journals The potential current distribution of the coypu (Myocastor coypus) in Europe and climate change induced shifts in the near future

NeoBiota ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 58 ◽  
pp. 129-160
Author(s):  
Anna Schertler ◽  
Wolfgang Rabitsch ◽  
Dietmar Moser ◽  
Johannes Wessely ◽  
Franz Essl
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Current Distribution ◽  
Current Knowledge ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
The Black Sea ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Grid Cells ◽  
Myocastor Coypus ◽  
Negative Impacts ◽  
Management Recommendations

The coypu (Myocastor coypus) is a semi-aquatic rodent native to South America which has become invasive in Europe and other parts of the world. Although recently listed as species of European Union concern in the EU Invasive Alien Species Regulation, an analysis of the current European occurrence and of its potential current and future distribution was missing yet. We collected 24,232 coypu records (corresponding to 25,534 grid cells at 5 × 5 km) between 1980 and 2018 from a range of sources and 28 European countries and analysed them spatiotemporally, categorising them into persistence levels. Using logistic regression, we constructed consensus predictions across all persistence levels to depict the potential current distribution of the coypu in Europe and its change under four different climate scenarios for 2041–2060. From all presence grid cells, 45.5% showed at least early signs of establishment (records temporally covering a minimum of one generation length, i.e. 5 years), whereas 9.8% were considered as containing established populations (i.e. three generation lengths of continuous coverage). The mean temperature of the warmest quarter (bio10), mean diurnal temperature range (bio2) and the minimum temperature of the coldest month (bio6) were the most important of the analysed predictors. In total, 42.9% of the study area are classified as suitable under current climatic conditions, of which 72.6% are to current knowledge yet unoccupied; therefore, we show that the coypu has, by far, not yet reached all potentially suitable regions in Europe. Those cover most of temperate Europe (Atlantic, Continental and Pannonian biogeographic region), as well as the coastal regions of the Mediterranean and the Black Sea. A comparison of the suitable and occupied areas showed that none of the affected countries has reached saturation by now. Under climate change scenarios, suitable areas will slightly shift towards Northern regions, while a general decrease in suitability is predicted for Southern and Central Europe (overall decrease of suitable areas 2–8% depending on the scenario). Nevertheless, most regions that are currently suitable for coypus are likely to be so in the future. We highlight the need to further investigate upper temperature limits in order to properly interpret future climatic suitability for the coypu in Southern Europe. Based on our results, we identify regions that are most at risk for future invasions and provide management recommendations. We hope that this study will help to improve the allocation of efforts for future coypu research and contribute to harmonised management, which is essential to reduce negative impacts of the coypu and to prevent further spread in Europe.

Mismatch between the optimal ages for ecosystem productivity and net CO2 sequestration in Norway spruce forests

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Junbin Zhao ◽  
Holger Lange ◽  
Helge Meissner
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Primary Production ◽  
Norway Spruce ◽  
Ecosystem Respiration ◽  
Gross Primary Production ◽  
Economic Benefits ◽  
Sink Strength ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Ecosystem Productivity ◽  
Spruce Forests

<p>Forests have climate change mitigation potential since they sequester carbon. However, their carbon sink strength might depend on management. As a result of the balance between CO<sub>2</sub> uptake and emission, forest net ecosystem exchange (NEE) reaches optimal values (maximum sink strength) at young stand ages, followed by a gradual NEE decline over many years. Traditionally, this peak of NEE is believed to be concurrent with the peak of primary production (e.g., gross primary production, GPP); however, in theory, this concurrence may potentially vary depending on tree species, site conditions and the patterns of ecosystem respiration (R<sub>eco</sub>). In this study, we used eddy-covariance (EC)-based CO<sub>2</sub> flux measurements from 8 forest sites that are dominated by Norway spruce (Picea abies L.) and built machine learning models to find the optimal age of ecosystem productivity and that of CO<sub>2</sub> sequestration. We found that the net CO<sub>2</sub> uptake of Norway spruce forests peaked at ages of 30-40 yrs. Surprisingly, this NEE peak did not overlap with the peak of GPP, which appeared later at ages of 60-90 yrs. The mismatch between NEE and GPP was a result of the R<sub>eco</sub> increase that lagged behind the GPP increase associated with the tree growth at early age. Moreover, we also found that newly planted Norway spruce stands had a high probability (up to 90%) of being a C source in the first year, while, at an age as young as 5 yrs, they were likely to be a sink already. Further, using common climate change scenarios, our model results suggest that net CO<sub>2</sub> uptake of Norway spruce forests will increase under the future climate with young stands in the high latitude areas being more beneficial. Overall, the results suggest that forest management practices should consider NEE and forest productivity separately and harvests should be performed only after the optimal ages of both the CO<sub>2</sub> sequestration and productivity to gain full ecological and economic benefits.</p>

Assessing the impact of climate change on crop management in winter wheat – a case study for Eastern Austria

2016 ◽  
Vol 154 (7) ◽  
pp. 1153-1170 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. EBRAHIMI ◽  
A. M. MANSCHADI ◽  
R. W. NEUGSCHWANDTNER ◽  
J EITZINGER ◽  
S. THALER ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Management Practices ◽  
Crop Management ◽  
Weather Data ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Management Scenarios ◽  
Global Circulation Models ◽  
Daily Weather Data ◽  
Eastern Austria ◽  
The Impact

SUMMARYClimate change is expected to affect optimum agricultural management practices for autumn-sown wheat, especially those related to sowing date and nitrogen (N) fertilization. To assess the direction and quantity of these changes for an important production region in eastern Austria, the agricultural production systems simulator was parameterized, evaluated and subsequently used to predict yield production and grain protein content under current and future conditions. Besides a baseline climate (BL, 1981–2010), climate change scenarios for the period 2035–65 were derived from three Global Circulation Models (GCMs), namely CGMR, IPCM4 and MPEH5, with two emission scenarios, A1B and B1. Crop management scenarios included a combination of three sowing dates (20 September, 20 October, 20 November) with four N fertilizer application rates (60, 120, 160, 200 kg/ha). Each management scenario was run for 100 years of stochastically generated daily weather data. The model satisfactorily simulated productivity as well as water and N use of autumn- and spring-sown wheat crops grown under different N supply levels in the 2010/11 and 2011/12 experimental seasons. Simulated wheat yields under climate change scenarios varied substantially among the three GCMs. While wheat yields for the CGMR model increased slightly above the BL scenario, under IPCM4 projections they were reduced by 29 and 32% with low or high emissions, respectively. Wheat protein appears to increase with highest increments in the climate scenarios causing the largest reductions in grain yield (IPCM4 and MPEH-A1B). Under future climatic conditions, maximum wheat yields were predicted for early sowing (September 20) with 160 kg N/ha applied at earlier dates than the current practice.

scholarly journals Effects of intensified silviculture on timber production and its economic profitability in boreal Norway spruce and Scots pine stands under changing climatic conditions

2019 ◽  
Vol 92 (5) ◽  
pp. 648-658 ◽  
Author(s):  
J Routa ◽  
A Kilpeläinen ◽  
V -P Ikonen ◽  
A Asikainen ◽  
A Venäläinen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Norway Spruce ◽  
Scots Pine ◽  
Net Present Value ◽  
N Fertilization ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Timber Production ◽  
Management Regime ◽  
Pine Stands ◽  
Scots Pine Stands

Abstract The aim of this study was to examine how intensified silviculture affects timber production (sawlogs and pulpwood) and its economic profitability (net present value [NPV], with 2 per cent interest rate) based on forest ecosystem model simulations. The study was conducted on Norway spruce and Scots pine stands located on medium-fertile upland forest sites under middle boreal conditions in Finland, under current climate and minor climate change (the RCP2.6 forcing scenario). In intensified silviculture, improved regeneration materials were used, with 10–20 per cent higher growth than the unimproved materials, and/or nitrogen (N) fertilization of 150 kg ha−1, once or twice during a rotation of 50–70 years. Compared to the baseline management regime, the use of improved seedlings, alone or together with N fertilization, increased timber production by up to 26–28 per cent and the NPV by up to 32–60 per cent over rotation lengths of 60–70 years, regardless of tree species (although more in spruce) or climate applied. The use of improved seedlings affected timber yield and NPV more than N fertilization. Minor climate change also increased these outcomes in Scots pine, but not in Norway spruce.

The response of Bonis Catchment in Calabria –Southern Italy to different management options under climate change scenarios.

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mouna Feki ◽  
Giovanni Ravazzani ◽  
Tommaso Caloiero ◽  
Gaetano Pellicone
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Southern Italy ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Distributed Hydrological Model ◽  
Management Scenarios ◽  
Management Options ◽  
Mountain Area ◽  
Small Catchment

<p>Forests ecosystems provide several ecosystem services among which the regulation of the hydrological cycle. These ecosystems are exposed to different forms of disturbances induced by human activities, management strategies, and climate change. The objective of INNOMED project, for the Italian case study, is to understand the response of forest to different silvicultural practices under climate change conditions. The study site is the the Bonis catchment located in the mountain area of Sila Greca (39°25’15’’N, 16°12’38’’W), in the Calabria region (southern Italy). This small catchment has a surface of 1.39 km<sup>2</sup> and a mean elevation of 1131 m above sea level. Almost 93% of the total area is covered by forest stand, dominated by about 50-year-old Calabrian pine (Pinus laricio Poiret) forests. In order to simulate the response of the catchment to different climate and management scenarios, FEST-WB distributed hydrological model was used. Within the framework of this project, FEST-FOREST module has been implemented in order to consider vegetation dynamics interactions with the hydrological response of the watershed. Since 1986, the basin was monitored through the installation of different instruments. Rainfall was measured by three rain gauges (with a tipping bucket) together with temperature that were measured at three different meteorological stations. In May 2003, a tower for measurement of eddy fluxes was installed at an altitude of 1100 m a.s.l, on a 54 years old plantation of Laricio pine which allowed monitoring of other parameters. Runoff was measured at the outlet of the catchment using a gauging structure. These data were used for the calibration and validation of the model before being implemented for future scenarios simulations. The results of these simulations delivered the potential impacts and the vulnerability of the Bonis catchment to different scenarios. These outcomes provide for the stakeholders a scientifically based and solid information for a sustainable management of the catchment.</p>

Soil Microbiological Activity and Carbon Dynamics in the Current Climate Change Scenarios: A Review

Pedosphere ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 26 (5) ◽  
pp. 577-591 ◽  
Author(s):  
Javid A. SOFI ◽  
Aabid H. LONE ◽  
Mumtaz A. GANIE ◽  
Naseer A. DAR ◽  
Sajad A. BHAT ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Carbon Dynamics ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Microbiological Activity ◽  
Current Climate ◽  
Soil Microbiological Activity

scholarly journals Climate change influence on a forested urban park: a forecast of tree growth and mortality

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Geet K Grewal
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Leaf Area ◽  
Tree Growth ◽  
Climate Change Scenario ◽  
Growing Season ◽  
Forecast Model ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Growing Season Length ◽  
Management Plans

Climate change is expected to lengthen the growing season for plants in many temperate regions. The purpose of this study is to develop future growth estimates for trees in Earlscourt Park, Toronto. The i-Tree Forecast model, in combination with climate change scenarios provided by the Canadian Climate Change Scenario Network, were used to build trajectories of future tree growth and mortality. Tree growth forecasts were greatest for the climate change scenario with the longest growing season length. Results highlight future vulnerability in two tree species common to the park, honey locust and Norway maple. A comparison of the leaf area estimates produced by i-Tree Streets and i-Tree Eco was also conducted. These models showed differences in their prediction of leaf area, a key metric for ecological service provision. Forecasting tree growth and mortality in urban parks can inform management plans that seek to maximize the flow of future ecological benefits.

scholarly journals A weather dependent approach to estimate the annual course of vegetation parameters for water balance simulations on the meso- and macroscale

2012 ◽  
Vol 32 ◽  
pp. 15-21 ◽  
Author(s):  
K. Förster ◽  
M. Gelleszun ◽  
G. Meon
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Balance ◽  
Hydrologic Model ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Time Step ◽  
Area Index ◽  
Vegetation Height ◽  
Current Climate ◽  
Vegetation Parameters

Abstract. In order to simulate long-term water balances hydrologic models have to be parameterized for several types of vegetation. Furthermore, a seasonal dependence of vegetation parameters has to be accomplished for a successful application. Many approaches neglect inter-annual variability and shifts due to climate change. In this paper a more comprehensive approach from literature was evaluated and applied to long-term water balance simulations, which incorporates temperature, humidity and maximum bright sunshine hours per day to calculate a growing season index (GSI). A validation of this threshold-related approach is carried out by comparisons with normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data and observations from the phenological network in the state of Lower Saxony. The annual courses of GSI and NDVI show a good agreement for numerous sites. A comparison with long-term observations of leaf onset and offset taken from the phenological network also revealed a good model performance. The observed trends indicating a shift toward an earlier leaf onset of 3 days per decade in the lowlands were reproduced very well. The GSI approach was implemented in the hydrologic model Panta Rhei. For the common vegetation parameters like leaf area index, vegetated fraction, albedo and the vegetation height a minimum value and a maximum value were defined for each land surface class. These parameters were scaled with the computed GSI for every time step to obtain a seasonal course for each parameter. Two simulations were carried out each for the current climate and for future climate scenarios. The first run was parameterized with a static annual course of vegetation parameters. The second run incorporates the new GSI approach. For the current climate both models produced comparable results regarding the water balance. Although there are no significant changes in modeled mean annual evapotranspiration and runoff depth in climate change scenarios, mean monthly values of these water balance components are shifted toward a lower runoff in spring and higher values during the winter months.

scholarly journals Projected effects of climate change on the carbon stocks of European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) forests in Zala County, Hungary

2016 ◽  
Vol 62 (1) ◽  
pp. 3-14 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zoltán Somogyi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Forest Management ◽  
Fagus Sylvatica ◽  
European Beech ◽  
Carbon Stocks ◽  
Carbon Accounting ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Adaptation Measures ◽  
Fagus Sylvatica L ◽  
Over Time

Abstract Recent studies suggest that climate change will lead to the local extinction of many tree species from large areas during this century, affecting the functioning and ecosystem services of many forests. This study reports on projected carbon losses due to the assumed local climate change-driven extinction of European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) from Zala County, South-Western Hungary, where the species grows at the xeric limit of its distribution. The losses were calculated as a difference between carbon stocks in climate change scenarios assuming an exponentially increasing forest decline over time, and those in a baseline scenario assuming no climate change. In the climate change scenarios, three different sets of forest management adaptation measures were studied: (1) only harvesting damaged stands, (2) additionally salvaging dead trees that died due to climate change, and (3) replacing, at an increasing rate over time, beech with sessile oak (Quercus petraea Matt. Lieb.) after final harvest. Projections were made using the open access carbon accounting model CASMOFOR based on modeling or assuming effects of climate change on mortality, tree growth, root-to-shoot ratio and decomposition rates. Results demonstrate that, if beech disappears from the region as projected by the end of the century, over 80% of above-ground biomass carbon, and over 60% of the carbon stocks of all pools (excluding soils) of the forests will be lost by 2100. Such emission rates on large areas may have a discernible positive feedback on climate change, and can only partially be offset by the forest management adaptation measures.

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