Transmission dynamics and quarantine control of COVID-19 in cluster community: A new transmission-quarantine model with case study for diamond princess

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-30
Author(s):  
Qingwu Gao ◽  
Jun Zhuang ◽  
Ting Wu ◽  
Houcai Shen
Keyword(s):  
Real Data ◽  
Transmission Dynamics ◽  
World Health ◽  
Substantial Impact ◽  
Global Pandemic ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Conduct Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Community Transmission ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
And Control

Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a zoonotic illness which has spread rapidly and widely since December, 2019, and is identified as a global pandemic by the World Health Organization. The pandemic to date has been characterized by ongoing cluster community transmission. Quarantine intervention to prevent and control the transmission are expected to have a substantial impact on delaying the growth and mitigating the size of the epidemic. To our best knowledge, our study is among the initial efforts to analyze the interplay between transmission dynamics and quarantine intervention of the COVID-19 outbreak in a cluster community. In the paper, we propose a novel Transmission-Quarantine epidemiological model by nonlinear ordinary differential equations system. With the use of detailed epidemiologic data from the Cruise ship “Diamond Princess”, we design a Transmission-Quarantine work-flow to determine the optimal case-specific parameters, and validate the proposed model by comparing the simulated curve with the real data. First, we apply a general SEIR-type epidemic model to study the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 without quarantine intervention, and present the analytic and simulation results for the epidemiological parameters such as the basic reproduction number, the maximal scale of infectious cases, the instant number of recovered cases, the popularity level and the final scope of the epidemic of COVID-19. Second, we adopt the proposed Transmission-Quarantine interplay model to predict the varying trend of COVID-19 with quarantine intervention, and compare the transmission dynamics with and without quarantine to illustrate the effectiveness of the quarantine measure, which indicates that with quarantine intervention, the number of infectious cases in 7 days decrease by about 60%, compared with the scenario of no intervention. Finally, we conduct sensitivity analysis to simulate the impacts of different parameters and different quarantine measures, and identify the optimal quarantine strategy that will be used by the decision makers to achieve the maximal protection of population with the minimal interruption of economic and social development.

scholarly journals Strategies for prevention and control of COVID-19 in Nepal

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 85-88 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kiran Sapkota ◽  
Ganesh Dangal ◽  
Madhu Koirala ◽  
Kalyan Sapkota ◽  
Asmita Poudel ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
World Health Organization ◽  
Prevention And Control ◽  
Preventive Measures ◽  
Large Population ◽  
World Health ◽  
The World ◽  
Community Transmission ◽  
The Government ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
And Control

Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak, caused by the most recently discovered coronavirus, is currently affecting a large population across the globe. World health organization (WHO) has already declared COVID-19, a pandemic, and the world is fighting to contain the COVID-19 outbreak. Nepal has taken several preventive measures to control the coronavirus outbreak. However, some additional steps are needed to prevent community transmission of the disease. This brief communication discusses the government of Nepal actions and provides recommendations for the prevention and control of COVID-19 infection in Nepal.

scholarly journals A Deep Learning Approach to Detect COVID-19 Patients from Chest X-ray Images

AI ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 1 (3) ◽  
pp. 418-435
Author(s):  
Khandaker Haque ◽  
Ahmed Abdelgawad
Keyword(s):  
Deep Learning ◽  
World Health ◽  
X Rays ◽  
X Ray ◽  
Global Pandemic ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Dental Diseases ◽  
Chest X Ray ◽  
Artery Disease ◽  
Health Organization

Deep Learning has improved multi-fold in recent years and it has been playing a great role in image classification which also includes medical imaging. Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) have been performing well in detecting many diseases including coronary artery disease, malaria, Alzheimer’s disease, different dental diseases, and Parkinson’s disease. Like other cases, CNN has a substantial prospect in detecting COVID-19 patients with medical images like chest X-rays and CTs. Coronavirus or COVID-19 has been declared a global pandemic by the World Health Organization (WHO). As of 8 August 2020, the total COVID-19 confirmed cases are 19.18 M and deaths are 0.716 M worldwide. Detecting Coronavirus positive patients is very important in preventing the spread of this virus. On this conquest, a CNN model is proposed to detect COVID-19 patients from chest X-ray images. Two more CNN models with different number of convolution layers and three other models based on pretrained ResNet50, VGG-16 and VGG-19 are evaluated with comparative analytical analysis. All six models are trained and validated with Dataset 1 and Dataset 2. Dataset 1 has 201 normal and 201 COVID-19 chest X-rays whereas Dataset 2 is comparatively larger with 659 normal and 295 COVID-19 chest X-ray images. The proposed model performs with an accuracy of 98.3% and a precision of 96.72% with Dataset 2. This model gives the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve area of 0.983 and F1-score of 98.3 with Dataset 2. Moreover, this work shows a comparative analysis of how change in convolutional layers and increase in dataset affect classifying performances.

scholarly journals Community grid management is an important measure to contain the spread of novel coronavirus pneumonia (COVID-19)

2020 ◽  
Vol 148 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chen Ling ◽  
Xianjie Wen
Keyword(s):  
Control Measures ◽  
World Health ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Source Of Infection ◽  
Global Pandemic ◽  
The World ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
And Control ◽  
Grid Management

Abstract The outbreak of novel coronavirus pneumonia (coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)), declared as a ‘global pandemic’ by the World Health Organization (WHO), is a public health emergency of international concern (PHEIC). The outbreak in multiple locations shows a trend of accelerating spread around the world. China has taken a series of powerful measures to contain the spread of the novel coronavirus. In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, in addition to actively finding effective treatment drugs and developing vaccines, it is more important to identify the source of infection at the community level as soon as possible to block the transmission path of the virus to prevent the spread of the pandemic. The implementation of grid management in the community and the adoption of precise management and control measures to reduce unnecessary personnel movement can effectively reduce the risk of pandemic spread. This paper mainly describes that the grid management mode can promote the refinement and comprehensiveness of community management. As a management system with potential to improve the governance ability of community affairs, it may be helpful to strengthen the prevention and control of the epidemic in the community.

scholarly journals Update on the SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) Outbreak: A Global Pandemic Challenge

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abhishek Kumar Soni
Keyword(s):  
World Health ◽  
Global Public Health ◽  
Global Challenge ◽  
Global Pandemic ◽  
Therapeutic Algorithms ◽  
The World ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
And Control ◽  
Death Cases

The 2019 novel coronavirus (previously 2019-nCoV) or coronavirus infectious disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak has been summarized as on March 29, 2020. COVID-19 is a highly transmittable and pathogenic viral infection caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SERS-CoV-2). The disease was first seen during an outbreak in Wuhan, China and continuous spreading from human to human around the sphere. The disease is uncontrolled and increasing the death toll through. The world is facing a global challenge to protect human lives caused by coronavirus outbreak. The number of infected patients is increasing day by day due to COVID-19 as a pandemic. The world health organization (WHO) has declared global public health emergency on January 30, 2020. The disease has been spread around 201 countries with total confirmed cases 634835 and death cases 29891 as on March 29, 2020. The goal of this review to summaries and update the clinical/medical features and suggestions for diagnosis of the COVID-19 as a pandemic. The discussion of the various therapeutic algorithms, risk, prevention and control based on the latest reports has been provided.

scholarly journals Applicability of saliva in the diagnosis of COVID-19: a review

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (9) ◽  
pp. e636997991
Author(s):  
Éverson de Andrade Lemos ◽  
Gustavo de Amorim Barbosa Cabral ◽  
José de Alencar Fernandes Neto ◽  
Maria Helena Chaves de Vasconcelos Catão
Keyword(s):  
World Health ◽  
Research Strategies ◽  
Screening Process ◽  
Manual Search ◽  
Global Pandemic ◽  
Qualitative Detection ◽  
Polymerase Chain ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
And Control ◽  
Potential Tool

In 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) classified COVID-19 as a global pandemic. Since then, there is a need for new methods to facilitate the diagnosis and control of this disease. Currently, reverse transcription followed by real-time polymerase chain reaction (rRT-PCR) of respiratory samples obtained by swabs represents the gold standard in the qualitative detection of Sars-CoV-2 infection. However, this type of collection has several disadvantages, making saliva a potential tool for the diagnosis of COVID-19. Thus, the aim of this study is to evaluate, through a systematic review of current scientific literature, the applicability of saliva for the diagnosis of COVID-19 in comparison to current methods. A search was carried out in MEDLINE, SciELO, Scopus and Web of Science databases, using descriptors, strategies and pre-established criteria by two independent evaluators, followed by a manual search in the references of articles selected for full reading. The research strategies identified 476 studies and 1 study was added through manual search. After analysis, 200 articles were excluded because they were duplicated among results found in databases. With the completion of the screening process, 12 articles were included in this review. It was concluded that it is necessary to produce new studies in order to obtain even more reliable and effective data about the use of saliva in the diagnosis of COVID-19. However, studies have shown that this material can be an excellent alternative sample for the detection of SARS-CoV-2.

scholarly journals SARS-CoV-2: A critical review of preventive and control measures in the context of the virus’ characteristics

2020 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 17-39
Author(s):  
Manca Alič ◽  
Andrej Ovca
Keyword(s):  
Control Measures ◽  
World Health ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Negative Consequences ◽  
Global Pandemic ◽  
The World ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
Cleaning And Disinfection ◽  
And Control

Abstract The year 2020 has been marked by the novel coronavirus, named Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome 2 (SARS-CoV-2), which causes coronavirus disease COVID-19. The World Health Organization (WHO) declared a global pandemic on the 11th of March 2020 due to the spread of this very contagious virus throughout the world. Since the outbreak, we have gained many insights about the virus, its presence and persistence in the environment and its possible and most common transmission routes. Such knowledge about the virus is invaluable for establishing effective preventive and control measures (also referred to as Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs)) that have become a key to tackling this pandemic in the absence of a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine. In this review, we discuss five main groups of NPIs: 1) ventilation, 2) cleaning and disinfection, 3) hand hygiene, 4) physical distancing, and 5) protective masks. We explore their shortcomings and potential negative consequences that might occur as unwanted side effects.

scholarly journals Coronaviruses in animals and humans, COVID-19 pandemic and one health approach

2020 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 187-193
Author(s):  
Mahesh K.C. ◽  
Shristi Ghimire ◽  
Namita Bhattarai ◽  
Santosh Dhakal
Keyword(s):  
One Health ◽  
Disease Outbreaks ◽  
World Health ◽  
Respiratory Illnesses ◽  
Global Pandemic ◽  
Health Strategy ◽  
Virus World ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
And Control ◽  
Respiratory Coronavirus

Coronaviruses can infect several animal species including cattle, pigs, dogs, and cats resulting in diseases related to respiratory and gastrointestinal systems. In humans, coronaviruses generally cause mild to moderate illnesses of the respiratory tract. Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (SARS-CoV) and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV), which emerged during 2002/03 and 2012/13 respectively, caused severe respiratory illnesses in humans. In December 2019, a novel respiratory coronavirus, SARS coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) emerged from Wuhan, China and caused coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Owing to the rapid spread of this virus, World Health Organization (WHO) declared COVID-19 outbreak as a global pandemic, which claimed over 300,000 lives by 16th May 2020. Data available so far indicate that COVID-19-associated severe illnesses, hospitalizations and deaths are more common in elderly above 65 years of age; in men; and in individuals with underlying health conditions such as cardiovascular disease, hypertension and diabetes. SARS-CoV-2 is considered to be emerged from bats and likely involved certain, yet to be identified, intermediate animal host. Prevention and control of ongoing COVID-19 pandemic and possible disease outbreaks in the future by other emerging and reemerging pathogens, requires efficient implementation of one health strategy that utilizes the expertise of human, animal and environmental health sectors.

scholarly journals A Study on Comparative Analysis of COVID-19 Datasets

SEEU Review ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
pp. 104-120
Author(s):  
Genc Hamzaj ◽  
Zamir Dika ◽  
Isak Shabani
Keyword(s):  
World Health Organization ◽  
World Health ◽  
Global Pandemic ◽  
Johns Hopkins University ◽  
The World ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
Credible World ◽  
And Control ◽  
The City

Abstract In December 2019 a virus named COVID-19 appeared in China, precisely in the city of Wuhan. This virus was declared a global pandemic by the World Health Organization in March 2020. Since no adequate medical treatment has yet been discovered for this virus, many world institutions are committed to share with each other the data they collect and process in their laboratories. A large amount of these data is shared with citizens in order to inform about the risk that threaten us by virus COVID-19. Various credible world institutions such as the World Health Organization (WHO), Johns Hopkins University (JHU), the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC), etc., are providing various statistical data to address the issues raised by this emergent situation, but these reports in some cases are putting doubts on the completeness and the transparency of the data, which are not sufficiently processed and which then create confusion about the risks that we are facing. In this paper we are conducting a study of the quality of current global datasets from the must credible sources related to COVID-19. Also, we are comparing datasets collected from Republic of Kosovo and Republic of North Macedonia with corresponding data from WHO, ECDC and JHU datasets. To analyze datasets from different sources, we are using Power BI tool, making the improvement through the implementation of adequate dimensions and methods of improving the quality of datasets.

scholarly journals The impact of COVID-19 imposed lockdown in India in 2020

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (7) ◽  
pp. 3728
Author(s):  
Chandar Sahanaa ◽  
Yuvaraja Murugan
Keyword(s):  
Mental Health ◽  
Public Health Emergency ◽  
Lifestyle Changes ◽  
World Health ◽  
Preventive Strategy ◽  
Online Classes ◽  
Community Transmission ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
And Control ◽  
The Impact

The World Health Organization declared COVID-19 pandemic as Public Health Emergency of International Concern on January 30, 2019. Lockdown was introduced as a preventive strategy to reduce the community transmission of the SARS CoV-2. This paper throws light into some unseen circumstances and challenges faced during the COVID-19 pandemic imposed lockdown. Socio-economic and healthcare crises, plight of migrants, mental health of women during the lockdown, stressful online classes for students and teachers, etc are few challenges faced during the period. However few noteworthy incidents during lockdown includes use of virtual reality in the field of telemedicine, couples on infertility treatment managed to concieve naturally, other survivors in the ecosysytem like birds and animals have enjoyed the environment. To conclude the pandemic imposed lockdown has not only helped in prevention and control of infectious diseases but also reminded us to address the new lifestyle changes and rising burden of mental health.  

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