REAL TIME UPDATING OF RISK ASSESSMENTS DURING A DRILLING OPERATION — ALTERNATIVE BAYESIAN APPROACHES

2006 ◽  
Vol 13 (01) ◽  
pp. 85-95 ◽  
Author(s):  
MALENE SANDØY ◽  
TERJE AVEN
Keyword(s):  
Probability Model ◽  
Bayesian Approaches ◽  
Strong Basis ◽  
Drilling Operation ◽  
New Information ◽  
Starting Point ◽  
Drilling Operations ◽  
Formation Pore Pressure ◽  
Updating Procedure ◽  
Operation Risk

Risk analyses of drilling operations performed in the planning phase of wells often fail to meet their objectives as decision support tools as they become outdated when more information is made available during the drilling operation. To ensure that drilling operation risk analyses at all times reflect the available knowledge and that decisions are made on a sufficiently strong basis, the risk analyses should be updated as valuable information reducing the uncertainty about important quantities is acquired during the drilling operation. Such updating requires procedures that automatically update uncertainty assessments as new information arrives. In this paper we present an updating procedure for assessments of the formation pore pressure in a reservoir, within a Bayesian context. We show that the problem can be solved by different Bayesian approaches, generated by introducing or not introducing an underlying probability model. Our recommended approach is based on assessment of uncertainties about quantities that can be given a physical interpretation. The drilling operation is the starting point for the paper, but the discussion is to large extent general and applies to other areas as well.

Persistent Tensions? International Legal Perspectives on ‘Other’ Foreign Fighters

2018 ◽  
Vol 60 (1) ◽  
pp. 539-573
Author(s):  
Marnie Lloydd
Keyword(s):  
Armed Conflict ◽  
Global Justice ◽  
Collective Good ◽  
Due Diligence ◽  
Strong Basis ◽  
Slowing Down ◽  
Sovereign Equality ◽  
Starting Point ◽  
History Of ◽  
Foreign Fighters

This paper takes as its starting point the question of whether and to what extent States may have an international legal obligation towards other States to seek to prevent those within their jurisdiction from travelling abroad to fight with a non-State armed group in a foreign armed conflict. While there is a strong basis for such due diligence obligations regarding the prevention of terrorist activity, including Security Council Resolution 2178 (2014) on ‘foreign terrorist fighters’, the scope of responsibility is less clear regarding broader categories of foreigners participating in civil war, despite a long history of foreign volunteers in armed conflict. In this paper, I present a reading of two possible resolutions in international law to the question posed by this ‘other’ foreign fighting and explore the tensions between them. The first is based on State responsibility, sovereign equality, and diligent prevention of harm; the second on a more contextual reading of human rights considerations and global justice. The tensions surrounding ‘other’ foreign fighters provide a practical example of the oscillation between a reliance on the consent of States and a notion of the collective good in international legal argument. Acknowledging the practical reliance of States on these interlacing perspectives in different times and contexts, I suggest the importance of stepping back and slowing down to look beyond today’s predominant but narrower and rushed, focus on counter-terrorism approaches to take account of the key themes that have shaped the legal discourse and practice regarding a broader historical range of foreign volunteering in armed conflict.

scholarly journals New Pyridone-Based Derivatives as Cannabinoid Receptor Type 2 Agonists

2021 ◽  
Vol 22 (20) ◽  
pp. 11212
Author(s):  
Manuel Faúndez-Parraguez ◽  
Carlos Alarcón-Miranda ◽  
Young Hwa Cho ◽  
Hernán Pessoa-Mahana ◽  
Carlos Gallardo-Garrido ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cannabinoid Receptor ◽  
Docking Studies ◽  
Receptor Type ◽  
Intracellular Camp ◽  
Type I ◽  
Type Ii ◽  
New Information ◽  
Starting Point ◽  
Inflammatory Processes

The activation of the human cannabinoid receptor type II (CB2R) is known to mediate analgesic and anti-inflammatory processes without the central adverse effects related to cannabinoid receptor type I (CB1R). In this work we describe the synthesis and evaluation of a novel series of N-aryl-2-pyridone-3-carboxamide derivatives tested as human cannabinoid receptor type II (CB2R) agonists. Different cycloalkanes linked to the N-aryl pyridone by an amide group displayed CB2R agonist activity as determined by intracellular [cAMP] levels. The most promising compound 8d exhibited a non-toxic profile and similar potency (EC50 = 112 nM) to endogenous agonists Anandamide (AEA) and 2-Arachidonoylglycerol (2-AG) providing new information for the development of small molecules activating CB2R. Molecular docking studies showed a binding pose consistent with two structurally different agonists WIN-55212-2 and AM12033 and suggested structural requirements on the pyridone substituents that can satisfy the orthosteric pocket and induce an agonist response. Our results provide additional evidence to support the 2-pyridone ring as a suitable scaffold for the design of CB2R agonists and represent a starting point for further optimization and development of novel compounds for the treatment of pain and inflammation.

scholarly journals ExTaxsI: an exploration tool of biodiversity molecular data

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Giulia Agostinetto ◽  
Anna Sandionigi ◽  
Adam Chahed ◽  
Alberto Brusati ◽  
Elena Parladori ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Molecular Data ◽  
Data Availability ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Distribution Data ◽  
Biodiversity Data ◽  
Related Information ◽  
New Information ◽  
Starting Point ◽  
Key Factor ◽  
New Research

AbstractBackgroundThe increasing availability of multi omics data is leading to continually revise estimates of existing biodiversity data. In particular, the molecular data enable to characterize novel species yet unknown and to increase the information linked to those already observed with new genomic data. For this reason, the management and visualization of existing molecular data, and their related metadata, through the implementation of easy to use IT tools have become a key point for the development of future research. The more users are able to access biodiversity related information, the greater the ability of the scientific community to expand the knowledge in this area.ResultsIn our research we have focused on the development of ExTaxsI (Exploring Taxonomies Information), an IT tool able to retrieve biodiversity data stored in NCBI databases and provide a simple and explorable visualization. Through the three case studies presented here, we have shown how an efficient organization of the data already present can lead to obtaining new information that is fundamental as a starting point for new research. Our approach was also able to highlight the limits in the distribution data availability, a key factor to consider in the experimental design phase of broad spectrum studies, such as metagenomics.ConclusionsExTaxI can easily produce explorable visualization of molecular data and its metadata, with the aim to help researchers to improve experimental designs and highlight the main gaps in the coverage of available data.

scholarly journals Abnormal Pressure Distribution of Tertiary age formations in Middle & South Iraqi Oil Fields

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 46-63
Author(s):  
Dr. Faleh H. M. Almahdawi ◽  
Dr. Kareem A. Alwan ◽  
Ahmed K. H. Alhusseini
Keyword(s):  
Hydrostatic Pressure ◽  
Pressure Distribution ◽  
Oil Fields ◽  
Formation Pressure ◽  
Abnormal Pressure ◽  
Drilling Operations ◽  
South Of Iraq ◽  
Abnormal Formation Pressure ◽  
Formation Pore Pressure ◽  
Pore Pressure Gradient

Prediction of formation pore pressure gradient is a very important factor in designingdrilling well program and it help to avoid many problems during drilling operations such as lostcirculation, kick, blowout and other problems.In this study, abnormal formation pressure is classified into two types; abnormal highpressure (HP) and abnormal low pressure (LP), therefore any pressure that is either above orbelow the hydrostatic pressure is referred to as an abnormal formation pressure.This study concerns with abnormal formation pressure distribution and their effect ondrilling operations in middle & south Iraqi oil fields. Abnormal formation pressure maps aredrawn depending upon drilling evidence and problems.Three formations are considered as abnormal formations in the region of study, theseformations geologically existed in Tertiary age and they from shallower to deeper are: LowerFars, Dammam and Umm Er Radhuma, Formations. The maps of this study referred to eitherhigh formations pressure such as (Lower Fars and Umm Er Radhuma) or the low formationspressure such as (Dammam) in middle and south of Iraq. Finally these maps also suggested andshowed the area, where no field is drill until now, which may behave as high, low and normalformation pressure for every formation understudy.

Loss Circulation Prevention during Drilling Operation - Risk Analysis Approach and its Implications

2020 ◽  
Vol 35 ◽  
pp. 102-109
Author(s):  
Emeka Emmanuel Okoro ◽  
Ikechukwu S. Okafor ◽  
Kevin C. Igwilo ◽  
Kale B. Orodu ◽  
Adewale Dosunmu
Keyword(s):  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Drilling Fluids ◽  
Operating Pressure ◽  
Expected Loss ◽  
Drilling Operation ◽  
Loss Analysis ◽  
Expected Opportunity Loss ◽  
Cost Implications ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Operation Risk

Drilling engineers and operators are stuck with challenges associated with loss circulation of drilling fluids in wellbores during drilling operation. At such times, a clear and careful decision is required in order to minimize cost or save resources that would have been lost in the bid to remedy the situation. This then informs the need to deploy reliable tools that will inform useful decisions as drawn from a thorough risk-analysis coined from the information gathered from the formation characteristics and operating pressure. In this study, a real-time statistic based approach was adopted in carrying out risk-evaluation of loss circulation events in a wellbore. Based on the expected opportunity loss analysis, it is often non-negotiable to consider other options when the analytical solution suggests that the well should be “abandoned”. For the decision tree, at the decision node, D1, the expected loss of the seal off zone option is $161.25, the expected loss of the drill ahead option is $19.2 and the expected loss of the abandon option is $13.2. Since the expected loss of the abandon option is less than the expected value of both the seal off and the drill ahead option, it is recommended to abandon the well. Furthermore, the risk analysis proved to be a veritable tool considering the cost implications of other options; and can also serve as basis for automated decision-making.

scholarly journals Improving best practice for patients receiving hospital discharge letters: a realist review

BMJ Open ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (6) ◽  
pp. e027588 ◽  
Author(s):  
Katharine Weetman ◽  
Geoff Wong ◽  
Emma Scott ◽  
Eilidh MacKenzie ◽  
Stephanie Schnurr ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Hospital Discharge ◽  
Best Practice ◽  
Data Extraction ◽  
Realist Review ◽  
Patient Choice ◽  
Programme Theory ◽  
Eligibility Criteria ◽  
New Information ◽  
Starting Point ◽  
Outpatient Settings

ObjectiveTo understand how different outcomes are achieved from adult patients receiving hospital discharge letters from inpatient and outpatient settings.DesignRealist review conducted in six main steps: (1) development of initial theory, (2) searching, (3) screening and selection, (4) data extraction and analysis, (5) data synthesis and (6) programme theory (PT) refinement.Eligibility criteriaDocuments reporting evidence that met criteria for relevance to the PT. Documents relating solely to mental health or children aged <18 years were excluded.AnalysisData were extracted and analysed using a realist logic of analysis. Texts were coded for concepts relating to context, mechanism, outcome configurations (CMOCs) for the intervention of patients receiving discharge letters. All outcomes were considered. Based on evidence and our judgement, CMOCs were labelled ‘positive’ or ‘negative’ in order to clearly distinguish between contexts where the intervention does and does not work.Results3113 documents were screened and 103 were included. Stakeholders contributed to refining the PT in step 6. The final PT included 48 CMOCs for how outcomes are affected by patients receiving discharge letters. ‘Patient choice’ emerged as a key influencer to the success (or not) of the intervention. Important contexts were identified for both ‘positive’ CMOCs (eg, no new information in letter) and ‘negative’ CMOCs (eg, letter sent without verifying patient contact details). Two key findings were that patient understanding is possibly greater than clinicians perceive, and that patients tend to express strong preference for receiving letters. Clinician concerns emerged as a barrier to wider sharing of discharge letters with patients, which may need to be addressed through organisational policies and direction.ConclusionsThis review forms a starting point for explaining outcomes associated with whether or not patients receive discharge letters. It suggests several ways in which current processes might be modified to support improved practice and patient experience.

Neolithic Painted Ware in the Adriatic

Antiquity ◽  
1966 ◽  
Vol 40 (158) ◽  
pp. 100-106 ◽  
Author(s):  
Warwick Bray
Keyword(s):  
Recent Work ◽  
South Italy ◽  
New Information ◽  
Starting Point ◽  
Local Sequence ◽  
Adriatic Coast ◽  
Definition Of ◽  
Molise Region ◽  
Neolithic Cultures ◽  
Classic Paper

The neolithic pottery of peninsular Italy is known in England chiefly through Stevenson's classic paper of 1947 which established the sequence of styles in Apulia, and the Sicilian material through the work of Bernabò Brea [I]. Neither of these studies paid much attention to the Abruzzo-Molise region where Rellini had published material from Ripoli as long ago as 1934 [2] and where more recent work by Radmilli and his associates has provided new information about the local neolithic cultures. Excavations along the Adriatic coast of Yugoslavia have led to the definition of the new cultures of Hvar and Danilo, and three painted ware provinces can now be recognized: ApuIia-Sicily, the Abruzzo, and Dalmatia. All three regions border the Adriatic and each was at some time in contact with the others (FIG. I).The best starting-point is still south Italy where the sequence from impressed ware, through red-paintedfasce largheplus scratched, to black-bordered red bands (Capri) and finally Serra d'Alto remains valid, except in the region of Foggia where Trump has established a rather different local sequence [3].

scholarly journals Toward a new information infrastructure in health technology assessment: Communication, design, process, and results

2009 ◽  
Vol 25 (S2) ◽  
pp. 92-98 ◽  
Author(s):  
Susanna Allgurin Neikter ◽  
Nina Rehnqvist ◽  
Måns Rosén ◽  
Helena Dahlgren
Keyword(s):  
Information System ◽  
Health Technology Assessment ◽  
Technology Assessment ◽  
Health Technology ◽  
Information Infrastructure ◽  
Communication Strategy ◽  
User Needs ◽  
Target Groups ◽  
New Information ◽  
Starting Point

Objectives: The aim of this study was to facilitate effective internal and external communication of an international network and to explore how to support communication and work processes in health technology assessment (HTA).Structure and Methods: European network for Health Technology Assessment (EUnetHTA) connected sixty-four HTA Partner organizations from thirty-three countries. User needs in the different steps of the HTA process were the starting point for developing an information system. A step-wise, interdisciplinary, creative approach was used in developing practical tools.Results: An Information Platform facilitated the exchange of scientific information between Partners and with external target groups. More than 200 virtual meetings were set up during the project using an e-meeting tool. A Clearinghouse prototype was developed with the intent to offering a single point of access to HTA relevant information. This evolved into a next step not planned from the outset: Developing a running HTA Information System including several Web-based tools to support communication and daily HTA processes. A communication strategy guided the communication effort, focusing on practical tools, creating added value, involving stakeholders, and avoiding duplication of effort.Conclusions: Modern technology enables a new information infrastructure for HTA. The potential of information and communication technology was used as a strategic tool. Several target groups were represented among the Partners, which supported collaboration and made it easier to identify user needs. A distinctive visual identity made it easier to gain and maintain visibility on a limited budget.

scholarly journals A Probabilistic Approach for Breast Boundary Extraction in Mammograms

2013 ◽  
Vol 2013 ◽  
pp. 1-19 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hamed Habibi Aghdam ◽  
Domenec Puig ◽  
Agusti Solanas
Keyword(s):  
Active Contour ◽  
Active Contour Model ◽  
Probability Model ◽  
Probabilistic Approach ◽  
Local Binary Patterns ◽  
Extraction Process ◽  
Morphological Operations ◽  
Boundary Extraction ◽  
Contour Model ◽  
Starting Point

The extraction of the breast boundary is crucial to perform further analysis of mammogram. Methods to extract the breast boundary can be classified into two categories: methods based on image processing techniques and those based on models. The former use image transformation techniques such as thresholding, morphological operations, and region growing. In the second category, the boundary is extracted using more advanced techniques, such as the active contour model. The problem with thresholding methods is that it is a hard to automatically find the optimal threshold value by using histogram information. On the other hand, active contour models require defining a starting point close to the actual boundary to be able to successfully extract the boundary. In this paper, we propose a probabilistic approach to address the aforementioned problems. In our approach we use local binary patterns to describe the texture around each pixel. In addition, the smoothness of the boundary is handled by using a new probability model. Experimental results show that the proposed method reaches 38% and 50% improvement with respect to the results obtained by the active contour model and threshold-based methods respectively, and it increases the stability of the boundary extraction process up to 86%.

scholarly journals STUDI LABORATORIUM PEMILIHAN ADDITIF PENSTABIL SHALE DI DALAM SISTEM LUMPUR KCL-POLIMER PADA TEMPERATUR TINGGI

2019 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 50
Author(s):  
Zakky Zakky ◽  
Bayu Satyawira ◽  
Samsol Samsol
Keyword(s):  
Physical Properties ◽  
The State ◽  
Drilling Mud ◽  
Dispersion Process ◽  
Drilling Operation ◽  
Drilling Operations ◽  
Shale Formation ◽  
University Laboratory ◽  
Petroleum Drilling

Mud is one of the things that is very supportive in drilling operations, the design of the mud can affect the effectiveness of drilling work, the costs to be incurred, up to when the well is in production. Of course what is expected from a mud usage is low expenditure and drilling with optimal results. Drilling mud plays a very important role in a drilling operation. Drilling that can run quickly, safely and economically is greatly influenced by the conditions and sludge system used. The condition referred to here is how the properties or rheology of the mud. Whereas the mud system referred to here is a certain type of mud that must be used with regard to the state of the formation and borehole. Muddy KCl-POLYMER is a non-dispersed mud, where the hydration and dispersion process of the shale formation drilled must be maintained or maintained as much as possible. There are several ways to achieve this, the most common of which is to limit the amount of water that reacts with the shale, by covering the cutting produced by the shale with the polymer as soon as possible to prevent further reactions with water. In this study, we will analyze the use and physical properties of drilling mud using KCl-Polymer sludge which is carried out in the Trisakti University Laboratory of Petroleum Drilling and Production.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document