Untold Tales of Goats in Deadly Indian Monsoons: Adapt or Rain-Retreat under Global Warming?

2016 ◽  
Vol 03 (01) ◽  
pp. 1650001 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Niggol Seo
Keyword(s):  
Monsoon Rainfall ◽  
Monsoon Season ◽  
Climate System ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Monthly Precipitation ◽  
Monsoon Climate ◽  
Monsoon Variability ◽  
Monsoon System ◽  
Variability Index ◽  
First Time

This paper examines the unique characteristics of the monsoon climate system and whether Indian farmers can adapt to an even deadlier monsoon climate caused by global climatic shifts. This paper shows that the monsoon climate system can be best captured by the Monsoon Variability Index (MVI) constructed by the present author which is defined as the coefficient of variation in the ratio of monsoon rainfall over non-monsoon rainfall for the 40-year period from 1971 to 2010. Monthly precipitation data are based on the observations at 304 weather stations located across India. This paper shows that the traditional measures of the monsoon climate such as monsoon precipitation do not explain the Indian farmers’ behaviors in response to the climate system. Second, this paper shows that the number of goats owned by farm households increases as the MVI increases, that is, as the monsoon climate intensifies. This paper finds that 50% increase in the MVI leads to 23% increase in the number of goats owned by farms. This means that farmers adapt to even the deadliest climate system, i.e., the monsoon system which often leaves millions of people homeless or dead in a single year. Third, this paper finds that the number of sheep owned declines as monsoon rainfall intensifies but increases if the non-monsoon season temperature warms up. The sheep number is not sensitive to changes in the MVI. This paper shows for the first time the ways farmers adapt to the deadly monsoon climate system. Past studies of climate change and agriculture in India are re-evaluated based on the results and policy implications are described.

scholarly journals Modelling of monsoon rainfall for a mesoscale catchment in North-West India I: assessment of objective circulation patterns

2006 ◽  
Vol 10 (6) ◽  
pp. 797-806 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. Zehe ◽  
A. K. Singh ◽  
A. Bárdossy
Keyword(s):  
Monsoon Rainfall ◽  
Monsoon Season ◽  
Companion Paper ◽  
North West ◽  
Monthly Scale ◽  
Monsoon Variability ◽  
Circulation Patterns ◽  
Rainfall Model ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
Rainy Days

Abstract. Within the present study we shed light on the question whether objective circulation patterns (CP) classified from either the 500 HPa or the 700 HPa level may serve as predictors to explain the spatio-temporal variability of monsoon rainfall in the Anas catchment in North West India. To this end we employ a fuzzy ruled based classification approach in combination with a novel objective function as originally proposed by (Stehlik and BᲤossy, 2002). After the optimisation we compare the obtained circulation classification schemes for the two pressure levels with respect to their conditional rainfall probabilities and amounts. The classification scheme for the 500 HPa level turns out to be much more suitable to separate dry from wet meteorological conditions during the monsoon season. As is shown during a bootstrap test, the CP conditional rainfall probabilities for the wet and the dry CPs for both pressure levels are highly significant at levels ranging from 95 to 99%. Furthermore, the monthly CP frequencies of the wettest CPs show a significant positive correlation with the variation of the total number of rainy days at the monthly scale. Consistently, the monthly frequencies of the dry CPs exhibit a negative correlation with the number of rainy days at the monthly scale. The present results give clear evidence that the circulation patterns from the 500 HPa level are suitable predictors for explaining spatio- temporal Monsoon variability. A companion paper shows that the CP time series obtained within this study are suitable input into a stochastical rainfall model.

scholarly journals Pioneer Legislation on Second Order of Sexual Harassment: Sociolegal Innovation in Addressing Sexual Harassment

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ana Vidu ◽  
Gema Tomás ◽  
Ramon Flecha
Keyword(s):  
Sexual Harassment ◽  
Women's Studies ◽  
Legal System ◽  
Scientific Evidence ◽  
Second Order ◽  
Bystander Intervention ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Women’S Studies ◽  
Key Innovation ◽  
First Time

Abstract Backgroud Countless efforts to combat sexual harassment have been proposed, and for the first time in history, the second order of sexual harassment (SOSH) has been legislated under the term second-order violence (SOV) by a unanimous vote of the Catalan Parliament. Advances in preventing and responding to sexual harassment contribute to highlighting the intervention as being crucial to supporting survivors against retaliation. A lack of support provides a general explanation on why bystanders tend not to intervene and highlights the reality that reprisals are suffered by those who support victims. Methods From the existing knowledge about sexual harassment prevention and response mechanisms, this paper analyzes scientific evidence through a review of the literature published in databases, as well as legislation, reports, and other materials. Results The context that enables SOV legislation is grounded in three realms: (1) bystander intervention and protection, (2) the role of support networks in protecting survivors, and (3) awareness and legislation of SOSH. An active bystander refers to the involvement of someone who is aware of potential sexual harassment situations. Conclusions The lack of legislation against SOSH limits bystander intervention and support; therefore, legislating protection for supporters has become urgent and necessary. Legislating SOSH has great social implications because gender equality cannot be fully achieved if bystander protection is not legally considered. Policy Implications: As no legal system has previously contemplated SOSH, its pioneering parliamentarian approval and establishment by Catalan law constitute a legal key innovation for the field of gender and women’s studies. In fact, evidence reported here are important in developing further regulations and policy. Policy Implications As no legal system has previously contemplated SOSH, its pioneering parliamentarian approval and establishment by Catalan law constitute a legal key innovation for the field of gender and women’s studies. In fact, evidence reported here are important in developing further regulations and policy.

scholarly journals Anthropogenic warming and intraseasonal summer monsoon variability amplify the risk of future flash droughts in India

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Vimal Mishra ◽  
Saran Aadhar ◽  
Shanti Shwarup Mahto
Keyword(s):  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Summer Monsoon ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Monsoon Rainfall ◽  
Root Zone ◽  
Monsoon Season ◽  
Intraseasonal Variability ◽  
Positive Temperature ◽  
Groundwater Abstraction ◽  
Increased Risk

AbstractFlash droughts cause rapid depletion in root-zone soil moisture and severely affect crop health and irrigation water demands. However, their occurrence and impacts in the current and future climate in India remain unknown. Here we use observations and model simulations from the large ensemble of Community Earth System Model to quantify the risk of flash droughts in India. Root-zone soil moisture simulations conducted using Variable Infiltration Capacity model show that flash droughts predominantly occur during the summer monsoon season (June–September) and driven by the intraseasonal variability of monsoon rainfall. Positive temperature anomalies during the monsoon break rapidly deplete soil moisture, which is further exacerbated by the land-atmospheric feedback. The worst flash drought in the observed (1951–2016) climate occurred in 1979, affecting more than 40% of the country. The frequency of concurrent hot and dry extremes is projected to rise by about five-fold, causing approximately seven-fold increase in flash droughts like 1979 by the end of the 21st century. The increased risk of flash droughts in the future is attributed to intraseasonal variability of the summer monsoon rainfall and anthropogenic warming, which can have deleterious implications for crop production, irrigation demands, and groundwater abstraction in India.

scholarly journals CMIP5 Simulations of Low-Level Tropospheric Temperature and Moisture over the Tropical Americas

2013 ◽  
Vol 26 (17) ◽  
pp. 6257-6286 ◽  
Author(s):  
Leila M. V. Carvalho ◽  
Charles Jones
Keyword(s):  
Daily Precipitation ◽  
Monsoon Season ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Specific Humidity ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
North American Monsoon ◽  
Tropospheric Temperature ◽  
The North ◽  
Decadal Variations ◽  
Monsoon System

Abstract Global warming has been linked to systematic changes in North and South America's climates and may severely impact the North American monsoon system (NAMS) and South American monsoon system (SAMS). This study examines interannual-to-decadal variations and changes in the low-troposphere (850 hPa) temperature (T850) and specific humidity (Q850) and relationships with daily precipitation over the tropical Americas using the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis, the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), and phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) simulations for two scenarios: “historic” and high-emission representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5). Trends in the magnitude and area of the 85th percentiles were distinctly examined over North America (NA) and South America (SA) during the peak of the respective monsoon season. The historic simulations (1951–2005) and the two reanalyses agree well and indicate that significant warming has occurred over tropical SA with a remarkable increase in the area and magnitude of the 85th percentile in the last decade (1996–2005). The RCP8.5 CMIP5 ensemble mean projects an increase in the T850 85th percentile of about 2.5°C (2.8°C) by 2050 and 4.8°C (5.5°C) over SA (NA) by 2095 relative to 1955. The area of SA (NA) with T850 ≥ the 85th percentile is projected to increase from ~10% (15%) in 1955 to ~58% (~33%) by 2050 and ~80% (~50%) by 2095. The respective increase in the 85th percentile of Q850 is about 3 g kg−1 over SAMS and NAMS by 2095. CMIP5 models project variable changes in daily precipitation over the tropical Americas. The most consistent is increased rainfall in the intertropical convergence zone in December–February (DJF) and June–August (JJA) and decreased precipitation over NAMS in JJA.

scholarly journals The demography of desert Australia

2008 ◽  
Vol 30 (1) ◽  
pp. 29 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dominic Brown ◽  
John Taylor ◽  
Martin Bell
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
Arid Zone ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Population Projections ◽  
Research Centre ◽  
Arid Zones ◽  
Demographic Information ◽  
The Impact ◽  
First Time ◽  
Semi Arid

In recent years, with the formation of organisations such as the Desert Knowledge Cooperative Research Centre, social science interest in the Australian desert has re-surfaced with a research emphasis that is focused on creating sustainable futures for the region. One consequence of this is a demand for detailed demographic information to allow an assessment of different quanta of need in social and economic policy, and for assessment of the impact of these in environmental policy. However, demographic analysis on human populations in the desert to date has attracted very little research attention. In this paper we begin to address this lack of analysis by focusing on the populations, both aboriginal and non-aboriginal, of the arid and semi-arid zones of Australia. We extend earlier analysis by including for the first time demographic information on the semi-arid as well as the arid zone to establish the spatial pattern of population growth within the whole desert area drawing attention to the resulting settlement structure as an outcome of prevailing social, cultural and economic conditions. By examining population structure and demographic components of population change we also present for the first time population projections for the semi-arid zone and, therefore, in combination with the arid zone, for the entire Australian desert. All of this provides a basis for considering social and economic policy implications and the nature of underlying processes that drive change in this region.

scholarly journals Why internet users’ perceptions of viewing child exploitation material matter for prevention policies

2020 ◽  
Vol 53 (2) ◽  
pp. 174-193 ◽  
Author(s):  
Charlotte Hunn ◽  
Caroline Spiranovic ◽  
Jeremy Prichard ◽  
Karen Gelb
Keyword(s):  
Crime Prevention ◽  
Situational Crime Prevention ◽  
Social Attitudes ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Material Matter ◽  
Internet Users ◽  
Child Exploitation ◽  
First Time ◽  
Sizeable Minority ◽  
Prevention Theory

There are claims that the societal appetite for ‘child exploitation material’ is increasing. Yet, Australia’s policy response does not include initiatives to dissuade potential offenders from deliberately viewing child exploitation material for the first time (onset). To critically examine this issue, this paper draws on Situational Crime Prevention theory. It argues that (a) many first-time child exploitation material viewers fit the Situational Crime Prevention construct of the Opportunistic Offender and (b) suggests that current policy overlooks the kinds of non-instrumental factors that increase the risk of onset for this group, including doubts about the criminality and harmfulness of viewing child exploitation material. The paper then empirically examines social attitudes to child exploitation material viewing by presenting the findings of a survey of 504 Australian internet users. Results indicate that a sizeable minority of the participants were: unaware that it is a crime to view certain types of child exploitation material in Australia; and held doubts about the harmfulness of viewing child exploitation material. These findings are used to reflect on how the presence of these non-instrumental factors among ordinary internet users may affect the offending readiness of the Opportunistic Offender. Policy implications are then briefly discussed.

scholarly journals Interdecadal Variability of the South American Precipitation in the Monsoon Season

2015 ◽  
Vol 28 (2) ◽  
pp. 755-775 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alice M. Grimm ◽  
João P. J. Saboia
Keyword(s):  
Function Analysis ◽  
Monsoon Season ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
The Other ◽  
Interdecadal Variability ◽  
Monthly Precipitation ◽  
Monsoon Precipitation ◽  
Climatic Indices ◽  
Continental Scale ◽  
Sst Anomalies

Abstract Interdecadal variability modes of monsoon precipitation over South America (SA) are provided by a continental-scale rotated empirical orthogonal function analysis, and their connections to well-known climatic indices and SST anomalies are examined. The analysis, carried out for austral spring and summer, uses a comprehensive set of station data assembled and verified for the period 1950–2000. The presented modes are robust, consistent with previous regional-scale studies and with modes obtained from longer time series over smaller domains. Opposite phases of the main modes show differences around 50% in monthly precipitation. There are significant relationships between the interdecadal variability in spring and summer, indicating local and remote influences. The first modes for both seasons are dipole-like, displaying opposite anomalies in central-east and southeast SA. They tend to reverse polarity from spring to summer. Yet the summer second mode and its related spring fourth mode, which affect the core monsoon region in central Brazil and central-northwestern Argentina, show similar factor loadings, indicating persistence of anomalies from one season to the other, contrary to the first modes. The other presented modes describe the variability in different regions with great monsoon precipitation. Significant connections with different combinations of climatic indices and SST anomalies provide physical basis for the presented modes: three show the strongest connections with SST-based indices, and two have the strongest connections with atmospheric indices. However, the main modes show connections with more than one climatic index and more than one oceanic region, stressing the importance of combined influence.

scholarly journals Corporate R&D intensity decomposition: different data, different results?

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pietro Moncada-Paternò-Castello ◽  
Sara Amoroso ◽  
Michele Cincera
Keyword(s):  
Research And Development ◽  
Analytical Methods ◽  
Innovation Policy ◽  
International Comparisons ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Data Sources ◽  
Empirical Results ◽  
Research And Innovation ◽  
Research And Innovation Policy ◽  
First Time

Abstract Research and Development (R&D) indicators are used to facilitate international comparisons and as targets for research and innovation policy. An example of such an indicator is R&D intensity. The decomposition of the aggregate corporate R&D intensity is able to explain the differences in R&D intensity between countries by determining whether is the result of firms’ underinvestment in R&D or of the differences across sectors. Despite its importance, the literature of corporate R&D intensity decomposition has been developed only recently. This article reviews for the first time the different methodological frameworks of corporate R&D intensity decomposition and how they are used in practice, shedding light on why sometimes empirical results seem to be contradictory. It inspects how the use of different data sources and analytical methods affect R&D intensity decomposition results, and what the analytical and policy implications are. The article also provides methodological and analytical guidance to analysts and policymakers.

scholarly journals Interannual Variation of the Summer Rainfall Center in the South China Sea

2017 ◽  
Vol 30 (19) ◽  
pp. 7909-7931 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tsing-Chang Chen ◽  
Jenq-Dar Tsay ◽  
Jun Matsumoto
Keyword(s):  
Summer Monsoon ◽  
Interannual Variation ◽  
Monsoon Rainfall ◽  
Monsoon Season ◽  
Summer Rainfall ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Monsoon Trough ◽  
Summer Monsoon Rainfall ◽  
Tropical Depression ◽  
Easterly Wave

Abstract A northwest–southeast-oriented summer monsoon trough exists between northern Indochina and northwestern Borneo. Ahead of this the South China Sea (SCS) trough is located at a convergent center west of the Philippines, which provides an environment favorable for rain-producing synoptic systems to produce rainfall over this center and form the SCS summer rainfall center. Revealed from the x–t diagram for rainfall, this rainfall center is developed by multiple-scale processes involved with the SCS trough (TR), tropical depression (TY), interaction of the SCS trough with the easterly wave/tropical depression (EI), and easterly wave (EW). It is found that 56% of this rainfall center is produced by the SCS trough, while 41% is generated by the other three synoptic systems combined. Apparently, the formation of the SCS summer monsoon rainfall center is contributed to by these four rain-producing synoptic systems from the SCS and the Philippines Sea. The Southeast Asian summer monsoon undergoes an interannual variation and exhibits an east–west-oriented cyclonic (anticyclonic) anomalous circulation centered at the western tropical Pacific east of the Luzon Strait. This circulation change is reflected by the deepening (filling) of the SCS summer monsoon trough, when the monsoon westerlies south of 15°N intensify (weaken). This interannual variation of the monsoon westerlies leads to the interannual variation of the SCS summer monsoon rainfall center to follow the Pacific–Japan oscillation of rainfall. The rainfall amount produced over this rainfall center during the weak monsoon season is about two-thirds of that produced during the strong monsoon season. The rain-production ratio between TR and TY + EI + EW is 60:38 during the strong monsoon season and 47:49 during the weak monsoon season.

scholarly journals Simulation of the Summer Monsoon Rainfall over East Asia Using the NCEP GFS Cumulus Parameterization at Different Horizontal Resolutions

2014 ◽  
Vol 29 (5) ◽  
pp. 1143-1154 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kyo-Sun Sunny Lim ◽  
Song-You Hong ◽  
Jin-Ho Yoon ◽  
Jongil Han
Keyword(s):  
Summer Monsoon ◽  
Monsoon Rainfall ◽  
Asian Summer Monsoon ◽  
Monsoon Season ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
Horizontal Resolution ◽  
Cumulus Parameterization ◽  
Grid Spacing ◽  
Simulated Precipitation ◽  
Horizontal Grid

Abstract The most recent version of the simplified Arakawa–Schubert (SAS) cumulus scheme in the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Forecast System (GFS) (GFS SAS) is implemented in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model with a modification of the triggering condition and the convective mass flux in order to make it dependent on the model’s horizontal grid spacing. The East Asian summer monsoon season of 2006 is selected in order to evaluate the performance of the modified GFS SAS scheme. In comparison to the original GFS SAS scheme, the modified GFS SAS scheme shows overall better agreement with the observations in terms of the simulated monsoon rainfall. The simulated precipitation from the original GFS SAS scheme is insensitive to the model’s horizontal grid spacing, which is counterintuitive because the portion of the resolved clouds in a grid box should increase as the model grid spacing decreases. This behavior of the original GFS SAS scheme is alleviated by the modified GFS SAS scheme. In addition, three different cumulus schemes (Grell and Freitas, Kain and Fritsch, and Betts–Miller–Janjić) are chosen to investigate the role of a horizontal resolution on the simulated monsoon rainfall. Although the forecast skill of the surface rainfall does not always improve as the spatial resolution increases, the improvement of the probability density function of the rain rate with the smaller grid spacing is robust regardless of the cumulus parameterization scheme.

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