Risk Management Regime and Its Scope for Transition in Tokyo
Coastal megacities are highly vulnerable to climate change due to asset concentration and hazard exposure, but have potential for innovative risk management taking advantage of technological, economic and political capacities and cultural assets. Tokyo is the center of one of the world’s largest urban agglomerations and one of the most hazard prone global cities. Having experienced repeated extreme events and resultant devastation, Tokyo has deployed a strategy of high technology based risk management. In the face of climate risks that amplify ongoing threats from catastrophic earthquakes, it is unclear whether the current strategy and its attendant culture and administrative structures are an enabler or a barrier for climate change adaptation. Based on 24 expert interviews, this paper examines Tokyo’s readiness to transition from its current risk management orientation aimed at disaster prevention towards more resilient of transformative states. We find the current risk management regime has been moving towards resilience planning promoted by the national policy architecture and the leadership of the Tokyo Metropolitan Government by incorporating self-help and community-cooperation into a long-standing strategy of resistance. This strategy continues to be dominated by technological, rather than social policy and so misses an opportunity for a broader contribution to sustainable development. The current approach may work for the near future but is perhaps less well suited to long-term risk management which includes highly uncertain future climate risks and potential social change. Transition is impeded by structural bottlenecks in the city authority while strategic partnerships between different stakeholders can facilitate transition of public values. Realizing this flexibility will position Tokyo’s risk management regime to better play a role in longer-term sustainable development.