scholarly journals Navigating Cascades of Uncertainty — As Easy as ABC? Not Quite…

2018 ◽  
Vol 05 (01) ◽  
pp. 1850007 ◽  
Author(s):  
K. A. Smith ◽  
R. L. Wilby ◽  
C. Broderick ◽  
C. Prudhomme ◽  
T. Matthews ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Extreme Events ◽  
Full Range ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Model Ensemble ◽  
Climate Risk Management ◽  
Scientific Outputs ◽  
Lower Limits ◽  
Ensemble Experiments

The uncertainties in scientific studies for climate risk management can be investigated at three levels of complexity: “ABC”. The most sophisticated involves “Analyzing” the full range of uncertainty with large multi-model ensemble experiments. The simplest is about “Bounding” the uncertainty by defining only the upper and lower limits of the likely outcomes. The intermediate approach, “Crystallizing” the uncertainty, distills the full range to improve the computational efficiency of the “Analyze” approach. Modelers typically dictate the study design, with decision-makers then facing difficulties when interpreting the results of ensemble experiments. We assert that to make science more relevant to decision-making, we must begin by considering the applications of scientific outputs in facilitating decision-making pathways, particularly when managing extreme events. This requires working with practitioners from outset, thereby adding “D” for “Decision-centric” to the ABC framework.

Beyond choice architecture: a building code for structuring climate risk management decisions

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-20
Author(s):  
JOSEPH ÁRVAI ◽  
ROBIN GREGORY
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Climate Risk ◽  
Choice Architecture ◽  
Management Decisions ◽  
Management Options ◽  
Trade Offs ◽  
Climate Risk Management

Abstract Although the need for urgent climate change action is clear, insights about how to make better climate risk management decisions are limited. While significant attention from behavioral researchers has focused on choice architecture, we argue that many of the contexts for addressing climate risks require increased attention to the needs of a deliberative and dynamic choice environment. A key facet of this kind of decision is the need for decision-makers and stakeholders to identify and balance conflicting economic, social and environmental objectives. This recognition of difficult, context-specific trade-offs highlights the need for structuring the decision-making process so that objectives are clearly articulated and prioritized. Equally, policy analyses and deliberations must effectively link priorities with climate risk management options. This restructuring of decision-making about climate change calls for more than a nudge. Scientific and technical efforts must be redirected to help stakeholders and decision-makers better understand the diverse implications of climate change management alternatives and to become better equipped to take actions commensurate with the urgency of the problem.

Intuition's value for organizational innovativeness and why managers still refrain from using it

2014 ◽  
Vol 52 (3) ◽  
pp. 526-539 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kurt Matzler ◽  
Borislav Uzelac ◽  
Florian Bauer
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Full Range ◽  
Linear Regression Analysis ◽  
Organizational Factors ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Organizational Size ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Organizational Innovativeness ◽  
Intuitive Decision Making ◽  
Power Position

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to expand the knowledge about the value of intuition for organizational innovativeness and organizational factors inhibiting intuitive decision making. Design/methodology/approach – The study develops and tests a theoretical model that relates intuitive and deliberate decision-making styles to organizational innovativeness, and the application of either decision-making style to organizational size and decision maker's power position in an organization. Based on a survey conducted in 2011, data from 281 organizations was analyzed applying linear regression analysis. Findings – Intuitive and deliberate processing both relate positively to organizational innovativeness. Organizational size relates negatively to the application of an intuitive decision-making style, while power position relates positively to the application of an intuitive decision-making style. Research limitations/implications – The findings suggest that intuitive decision making is valuable for organizational innovativeness. Still, its application is suppressed if decision makers are in lower power positions or part of larger organizations. Originality/value – High demands on managers’ and entrepreneurs’ information processing capabilities require them to apply their full range of cognitive capabilities (i.e. deliberative and intuitive processing). Intuitive decision making, however, still seems to be confined to those who have least reason to fear critique from others.

scholarly journals Over-representation of extreme events in decision-making reflects rational use of cognitive resources

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Falk Lieder ◽  
Tom Griffiths ◽  
Ming Hsu
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Information Processing ◽  
Expected Utility ◽  
Extreme Events ◽  
Finite Time ◽  
Cognitive Biases ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Cognitive Resources ◽  
Memory Recall ◽  
Wide Range

People’s decisions and judgments are disproportionately swayed by improbable but extreme eventualities, such as terrorism, that come to mind easily. This article explores whether such availability biases can be reconciled with rational information processing by taking into account the fact that decision-makers value their time and have limited cognitive resources. Our analysis suggests that to make optimal use of their finite time decision-makers should over-represent the most important potential consequences relative to less important, put potentially more probable, outcomes. To evaluate this account we derive and test a model we call utility-weighted sampling. Utility-weighted sampling estimates the expected utility of potential actions by simulating their outcomes. Critically, outcomes with more extreme utilities have a higher probability of being simulated. We demonstrate that this model can explain not only people’s availability bias in judging the frequency of extreme events but also a wide range of cognitive biases in decisions from experience, decisions from description, and memory recall.

scholarly journals The Role of Risk Management in Enhancing the Process of Strategic Marketing Decision-Making: A Prospective Study of a Sample of Jordanian Industrial Companies

2017 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 94
Author(s):  
Ali Falah Al-zoubi ◽  
Salman Mohammad Abulehyeh
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Technical Information ◽  
Industrial Sector ◽  
Great Depth ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Strategic Marketing ◽  
Industrial Companies ◽  
Marketing Decision ◽  
Depth And Complexity

The study aimed at identifying the role and importance of risk management in enhancing and managing the strategic and dynamic marketing decisions that relate to strategic problems of multi-dimensions and of great depth and complexity. This kind of decision requires in-depth research of the risks and the capacity for future analysis and discussions, which deal with all hypotheses and possibilities. Thus, the decision makers are critical resource for the company. Thus, it is necessary to stress on the importance of studying risk management and its role in enhancing the strategic marketing decision-making process, which is considered a way for companies to drive the future, which is the center of this study. In order to achieve the objectives of this study, a questionnaire was designed and distributed in person on a sample of managers of industrial companies in the Jordanian private sector.45 out of 65 distributed questionnaires were found to be valid. The data were statistically analyzed and the results showed that the strategic marketing decision makers in the industrial company realize the importance of risk management and employ it in the process of strategic marketing decision-making. However, the actual management or perfect investment of risk management in the industrial sector is still limited due to the existence of obstacles and limitations concerning managers and leaders and the available technical, information and material capabilities.

Frameworks of Policy Making Under Climate Change

2011 ◽  
pp. 271-308
Author(s):  
Costas P. Pappis
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Climate Variability ◽  
Extreme Events ◽  
Policy Process ◽  
Policy Making ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Practical Significance ◽  
Business Entities ◽  
Analytical Frameworks

How can decision-makers ensure that their policies will be robust enough to cope with the challenges of a climate, which is changing dramatically? How best to adapt to climate variability and extreme events? Which are the best practices for understanding, analysing and finally managing the risks that are associated with climate change and face business entities, communities, individual countries and the whole planet? Are there appropriate frameworks and methods available, capable to assist in systematically carrying out the decision-making and policy process? Questions such as these have not only a theoretical scope, but a great practical significance as well. Decision makers have been seeking for appropriate guidance and analytical frameworks to deal with these questions.

Decision making based on intuitionistic fuzzy preference relations with additive approximate consistency

2020 ◽  
Vol 39 (3) ◽  
pp. 4041-4058
Author(s):  
Fang Liu ◽  
Xu Tan ◽  
Hui Yang ◽  
Hui Zhao
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Real Interval ◽  
Preference Relations ◽  
Intuitionistic Fuzzy ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Fuzzy Preference Relations ◽  
Novel Concept ◽  
Fuzzy Weights ◽  
Fuzzy Preference

Intuitionistic fuzzy preference relations (IFPRs) have the natural ability to reflect the positive, the negative and the non-determinative judgements of decision makers. A decision making model is proposed by considering the inherent property of IFPRs in this study, where the main novelty comes with the introduction of the concept of additive approximate consistency. First, the consistency definitions of IFPRs are reviewed and the underlying ideas are analyzed. Second, by considering the allocation of the non-determinacy degree of decision makers’ opinions, the novel concept of approximate consistency for IFPRs is proposed. Then the additive approximate consistency of IFPRs is defined and the properties are studied. Third, the priorities of alternatives are derived from IFPRs with additive approximate consistency by considering the effects of the permutations of alternatives and the allocation of the non-determinacy degree. The rankings of alternatives based on real, interval and intuitionistic fuzzy weights are investigated, respectively. Finally, some comparisons are reported by carrying out numerical examples to show the novelty and advantage of the proposed model. It is found that the proposed model can offer various decision schemes due to the allocation of the non-determinacy degree of IFPRs.

Methodological bases and practice of risk management of regional development (part 1)

2020 ◽  
Vol 18 (2) ◽  
pp. 114-126
Author(s):  
Valery V. Karpov ◽  
Anna G. Breusova ◽  
Anna A. Korableva
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Regional Development ◽  
Regional Economy ◽  
Full Range ◽  
Risk Identification ◽  
Territorial Development ◽  
Public Authorities ◽  
Strategic Risk ◽  
Risk Committee ◽  
State Programs

The article is devoted to the theoretical foundations and analysis of the experience of subjects of the Russian Federation in the field of regional development risk management. The article examines the concept of risk, its difference and relationship with the concepts of uncertainty, threat, danger, security and others. It is determined that dangers are constantly present in the regional economy. And risk, as a measurable uncertainty with multiple outcomes, for which the probability of occurrence of a risk event is calculated, is manifested as a result of the occurrence of a hazard. When comparing the concepts of risk and security, this means that the security of the regional economy is manifested in the ability to resist threats and manage risks, and not in the complete absence of dangers. It is revealed that ISO standards distinguish between the concepts of risk management and risk management. For further discussion, risk management is understood as a systematic approach to using the full range of mechanisms available to public authorities to reduce emerging risks and threats to the socio-economic development of the region. Further, the analysis of risk management in the practice of regional management on the example of the Omsk, Novosibirsk and Tyumen regions is carried out. The relevant tools in the activities of government bodies, such as territorial development strategies, state programs and projects, were identified, which allowed us to introduce a classification of risks with the allocation of strategic, tactical risks of territorial development and project management risks, among which there is a strategic level. The analysis of the implemented tools for compliance with the mandatory stages of risk management showed mainly the absence of risk identification, unified requirements for risk accounting and systematic risk management of regional development. Among the assessed regions, the Tyumen region has the best practices in terms of risk management. For a more detailed analysis authors highlighted the key institutional and instrumental elements of risk management such as risk committee, strategic risk map, risk register, action plan for risk management, and defined logical relationships between them.

Risk management and decision making in remediation option selection

2009 ◽  
Vol 17 (3) ◽  
pp. 345-353
Author(s):  
S. Colombano ◽  
C. Merly ◽  
H. Gaboriau
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Option Selection
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