scholarly journals The Short-Run and Long-Run Relationships between Mortality and the Business Cycle in Canada

2013 ◽  
Vol 2013 ◽  
pp. 1-11 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zuzana Janko ◽  
J. C. Herbert Emery ◽  
Pierre Guenette
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Death Rates ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Unemployment Rates ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
The Relationship

This paper investigates the relationship between health and the business cycle for the Canadian economy. The majority of existing literature shows a procyclical relationship between death rates and indicators of the business cycle, suggesting that recessions are good for one’s health. We use a time series error correction model to determine the short-run and long-run impacts of the unemployment rates on death rates. Our results indicate that temporary slowdowns in economic activity are associated with lower death rates. Moreover, once we stratify the data by sex, we find a long-run negative relationship between the unemployment rate and death rates for both sexes.

ANALISIS PENGARUH EKSPOR TERHADAP PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI INDONESIA

2017 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-20
Author(s):  
Ari Mulianta Ginting
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Export Performance ◽  
Descriptive Analysis ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Administration System ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Available Information ◽  
Increasing Trends ◽  
The Relationship

Ekspor merupakan salah satu faktor terjadinya peningkatan pertumbuhan ekonomi suatu negara, sejalan dengan hipotesis export-led growth (ELG). Penelitian ini menganalisis perkembangan ekspor dan pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia periode kuartal I 2001 sampai dengan kuartal IV 2015. Penelitian ini menggunakan analisis deskriptif dalam menggambarkan perkembangan pertumbuhan ekonomi serta ekspor dan analisis kuantitatif metode Error Correction Model (ECM) dalam menganalisis efek jangka panjang dan jangka pendek dari ekspor terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi. Pada periode penelitian, data yang ada menunjukkan bahwa ekspor dan pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia sama-sama mengalami peningkatan. Hasil regresi ECM menunjukkan bahwa ekspor memiliki pengaruh yang positif dan signifikan secara statistik terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia, yang mendukung hipotesis bahwa ELG berlaku untuk Indonesia. Berdasarkan hasil penelitian ini, maka untuk mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia diperlukan peningkatan kinerja ekspor Indonesia. Peningkatan kinerja ekspor Indonesia dapat dilakukan dengan berbagai cara, salah satunya adalah dengan perbaikan sistem administrasi ekspor, peningkatan riset dan pengembangan produk Indonesia, peningkatan sarana dan prasarana infrastruktur, stabilitas nilai tukar dan perluasan pasar non tradisional, termasuk perbaikan struktur ekspor komoditas. Export is one of the factors behind the economic growth which is in line with the export-led growth hypotesis (ELG). This research analyzes the relationship between economic growth and export of Indonesia during first quarter of 2001 until fourth quarter of 2015. It employs descriptive analysis to describe export movement and economic growth during the study period and ECM model to analyze the long run and the short run effects of export on the economic growth. The available information indicated that, during the study period, both export and economic growth showed similar increasing trends. The result of the ECM model revealed that export had a positive and statistically significant relationship with the economic growth, supporting the hypotesis of ELG in Indonesia. Hence, to accelerate economic growth, efforts are required to boost the export performance in Indonesia. The Export performance can be increased by several way, such as improving the export administration system, increasing the research and development of Indonesian products, improving the facilities and infrastructure, exchange rate stability and the non-tradisional markets expansion, and including improvement of the export commodity structure.

scholarly journals Analysis of Internal and External Determinant Variables towards Profitability of Islamic Banking in Indonesia (2014-2020)

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 18-34
Author(s):  
Febri Ramadhani ◽  
Muhammad Rizkan
Keyword(s):  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Banking System ◽  
Islamic Banking ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Relationship Of

Indonesia is a country that adheres to a dual banking system, namely conventional and Islamic Banking. The growth rate of Islamic banking in the last three years is higher than conventional banking. However, in total assets, Islamic banking is still far behind conventional banking. Therefore, it is necessary to study further the performance of Islamic banking reflected in its profitability. So, it becomes an alternative input in determining Islamic banking policies. This study aims to know the factors affecting the profitability (ROA) of Islamic Banking in Indonesia. The data used are the 2014-2020 monthly data in the amount of 79 data. The method used in this study is a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) to determine the effect of long-run and short-run relationships. The results of the study showed that the long-run relationship of the NPF variable affected and was significant positive toward ROA, CAR affected and was significant negative toward ROA, while the inflation variable had a negative relationship and not significant toward ROA. The results of the short-run relationships showed that the NPF and CAR variables positively affected ROA, while the inflation variable did not significantly affect the ROA.

Introduction

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-6
Author(s):  
Jesper Rangvid
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Final Part ◽  
Stylized Facts ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Key Concepts ◽  
The Business Cycle

Chapter 1 contains an overview of the book. Part I introduces key concepts, definitions, and stylized facts regarding long–run economic growth and stock returns.Part II analyses the relation between economic growth and stock returns in the long run. Part III examines the shorter-horizon relation between economic growth and stock returns: the relation over the business cycle. Part IV explains how to make reasonable projections for economic activity, both for the short and the long run. Part V deals with expected future stock returns. The final part, a short one including one chapter only, explains how one can use the insights from the book when making investments.

The Association Between Bank Credit Terms and Conditions and the Business Cycle in the Euro Area

2019 ◽  
Vol 65 (4) ◽  
pp. 247-256
Author(s):  
Dimitrios Anastasiou ◽  
Konstantinos Drakos
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
Bank Loan ◽  
Bank Credit ◽  
Monetary Policies ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Loan Terms ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Business Cycle

Abstract We explored the trajectory of bank loan terms and conditions over the business cycle, where the latter was decomposed into its long-run (trend) and short-run (cyclical) components. We found that deterioration of each business cycle component leads to a significant tightening of credit terms and conditions. We found mixed results concerning the symmetry of impacts of the short and long run components. Symmetry was found between the terms and conditions on loans for small vs. large enterprises. Our findings provide very useful information to policy makers and should be taken into consideration when monetary policies are designed.

A Long View of the UK Business Cycle

2002 ◽  
Vol 182 ◽  
pp. 72-89 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jagjit S. Chadha ◽  
Charles Nolan
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Dominant Role ◽  
Real Wages ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Nominal Interest Rates ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
The Uk ◽  
External Sector

We outline a number of ‘stylised’ facts on the UK business cycle obtained from analysis of the long-run UK annual dataset. The findings are to some extent standard. Consumption and investment are pro-cyclical, with productivity playing a dominant role in explaining business cycle fluctuations at all horizons. Money neutrality obtains over the long run but there is clear evidence of non-neutrality over the short run, particularly at the business cycle frequencies. Business cycle relationships with the external sector via the real exchange rate and current account are notable. Postwar, the price level is counter-cyclical and real wages are pro-cyclical, as are nominal interest rates. Modern general equilibrium macroeconomic models capture many of these patterns.

The effect of social spending on reducing poverty

2017 ◽  
Vol 44 (5) ◽  
pp. 620-632
Author(s):  
Ferdi Celikay ◽  
Erdal Gumus
Keyword(s):  
Empirical Evidence ◽  
Design Methodology ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Social Spending ◽  
Social Expenditure ◽  
Education Expenditure ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Relationship

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to provide new empirical evidence on the relationship between social expenditure and poverty in Turkey. Design/methodology/approach There are voluminous studies in the literature and many of which contain condradictory results. The authors use panel error correction models and employ Turkish statistical territorial units data (26 regions) covering the period 2004-2011 in the analysis. Findings The authors have found that in the short run, there is a negative relationship between social expenditure and poverty, as expected. In the long run, however, there exists a positive relation between them. The authors utilize expenditure on education as one component of social expenditure, and the authors obtain a negative relationship between education expenditure and poverty, both in the short run and in the long run. Social implications Poverty is an important social problem that more studies on this subject should examine various aspects and find policies to alleviate it. Originality/value Literature on poverty and social spending are growing and their results are contradictory. However, this paper clearly and significantly provides new empirical evidence on the effect of social spending on reducing poverty using Turkish data. This kind of study is hardly found for developing countries like Turkey. It contributes to the literature.

scholarly journals An Econometric Analysis of Inflation and Unemployment in Lebanon: A Vector Error Correction Model (VECM)

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 133
Author(s):  
Mohammad Khanssa ◽  
Wafaa Nasser ◽  
Abbas Mourad
Keyword(s):  
Phillips Curve ◽  
Vector Error Correction Model ◽  
Econometric Modeling ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Causality Relationship ◽  
The Relationship

This paper uses econometric modeling to test the nature of the relationship between unemployment and inflation in Lebanon throughout the period 1993-2014. It takes the Phillips curve relationship as a reference for the tests. Cointegration, Granger causality and VECM were used to test the relationship both in the short and in the long run. The study resulted in finding out that the Phillips curve relationship doesn’t hold in Lebanon in the short run and came to a conclusion that there is a one-way causality relationship in the long run from unemployment to inflation and not in the opposite direction.

scholarly journals Cyclical Fluctuation, Growth, and Stabilization: An Empirical Investigation of Dual Policy Objectives in Bangladesh

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richmond Sam Quarm ◽  
Mohamed Osman Elamin Busharads
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Macroeconomic Policy ◽  
Output Growth ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Business Cycle

In conventional economics, two types of macroeconomic policy i.e. fiscal policy and monetary policy are used to streamline the business cycle. This paper has examined the cyclical behavior of these variables over the business cycle of Bangladesh. The objective of this examination is to show whether policies (fiscal policy and monetary policy) in Bangladesh are taken with a motive to stabilize the economy or only to promote economic growth. In other words, it has examined whether the policies in Bangladesh are procyclical or countercyclical or acyclical. Hodrick Prescott (HP) filter has been used to separate the cyclical component of considered variables. Both correlation and regression-based analysis have provided that in Bangladesh government expenditure and interest rates behave procyclically, but money supply behaves acyclically over the business cycle. Besides, this paper has tried to identify the long-term as well as the short-term relationship between real GDP and the macroeconomic policy variables with the help of the Johansen cointegration test, vector error correction model (VECM), and block exogeneity Wald test. Through these analyses, this study has found that fiscal policy has a significant impact on GDP growth both in the short-run and long-run. In the case of monetary policy, although the interest rate has an impact on real output both in the short-run and long-run, the money supply has neither a short-run nor long-run effect on output growth.

Determining Terrorism Proxies for the Relationship with Tourism Demand: A Global View

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stathis Polyzos ◽  
Georgia Papadopoulou ◽  
Anestis Fotiadis
Keyword(s):  
Methodological Approach ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Principal Component ◽  
Terrorist Activity ◽  
Regional Effects ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Tourist Flows ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Tourism Arrivals

This study examines the determinants of the relationship between terrorism and tourism, by testing different proxies to assess both the frequency and the severity of terrorist activity. The methodological approach includes implementing Principal Component Analysis into four different sets of possible proxies for terrorism in order to examine their relationship with international tourism arrivals over the period 1998-2018. The dataset includes world tourist flows and terrorist incidents anywhere in the world in order to avoid regional effects. The empirical results show that all candidate proxies exhibit a long-run, negative relationship with tourism, while there is also an impact of tourism on terrorism, with conflicting directions between the short run and the long run. The findings suggest that increased terrorist activity may cause destination substitution in the short run but will have adverse effects in the long run. In addition, authorities should be prepared for a rise in terrorist incidents during periods with increased tourist flows. Finally, research on terrorism should take into account the qualitative characteristics of terrorist activities.

Fluctuations and Rigidities in Local Labor Markets. Part 1: Theory and Evidence

1983 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 165-185 ◽  
Author(s):  
G L Clark
Keyword(s):  
Spectral Analysis ◽  
Labor Market ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Labor Markets ◽  
Local Labor Markets ◽  
Hours Worked ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
Us Cities

Cyclical sensitivity in employment, wages, and hours worked are explored with reference to three industries and eleven US cities over the period 1972–1980. Conventional neoclassical discrete-exchange models of the labor market are shown to be inadequate because of marked rigidities in the patterns of short-run adjustment. Money wages are very stable, being dominated by a long-run trend, and firms tend to adjust hours worked and only then employment in the short run. There are, however, significant interregional variations in these patterns within the same industry. Spectral analysis and tests for periodicities in the patterns of residuals derived from trend-line estimates of money wages confirm a supposition that urban Phillips curves do not exist. The evidence supports the implicit notion of contract theory that continuous employer-worker relationships exist over the business cycle. The question of how useful, in general, this theory might be is left open for the present.

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