scholarly journals An Intelligence Optimized Rolling Grey Forecasting Model Fitting to Small Economic Dataset

2014 ◽  
Vol 2014 ◽  
pp. 1-10 ◽  
Author(s):  
Li Liu ◽  
Qianru Wang ◽  
Ming Liu ◽  
Lian Li
Keyword(s):  
System Theory ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Forecast Accuracy ◽  
Grey System Theory ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Economic Time Series ◽  
Grey System ◽  
Highly Nonlinear ◽  
The Impact

Grey system theory has been widely used to forecast the economic data that are often highly nonlinear, irregular, and nonstationary. The size of these economic datasets is often very small. Many models based on grey system theory could be adapted to various economic time series data. However, some of these models did not consider the impact of recent data or the effective model parameters that can improve forecast accuracy. In this paper, we proposed the PRGM(1,1) model, a rolling mechanism based grey model optimized by the particle swarm optimization, in order to improve the forecast accuracy. The experiment shows that PRGM(1,1) gets much better forecast accuracy among other widely used grey models on three actual economic datasets.

A Novel Method to Improve the Accuracy of Grey Prediction Model in Economic Prediction

2013 ◽  
Vol 347-350 ◽  
pp. 3331-3335
Author(s):  
Qian Ru Wang ◽  
Xi Wei Chen ◽  
Da Shi Luo ◽  
Yu Feng Wei ◽  
Li Ya Jin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
System Theory ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Grey System Theory ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Economic Data ◽  
Grey System ◽  
Forecasting Accuracy ◽  
Highly Nonlinear ◽  
The Impact

Grey system theory has been widely used to forecast the economic data that are often highly nonlinear, irregular and non-stationary. Many models based on grey system theory could adapt to various economic time series data. However, some of these models didnt consider the impact of the model parameters, or only considered a simple change of the model parameters for the prediction. In this paper, we proposed the PSO based GM (1, 1) model using the optimized parameters in order to improve the forecasting accuracy. The experiment shows that PSO based GM (1, 1) gets much better forecasting accuracy compared with other widely used grey models on the actual chaotic economic data.

Research on Prediction of the Amount of Regional Airport Aviation Based on GM (1.1) Model in the Gray System

2014 ◽  
Vol 587-589 ◽  
pp. 1901-1906
Author(s):  
Ai Lan Peng ◽  
Ke Dong ◽  
Wei Na Yang
Keyword(s):  
System Theory ◽  
Original Data ◽  
Grey System Theory ◽  
Grey System ◽  
Data Sequence ◽  
Practical Situation ◽  
Gray System ◽  
Air Volume ◽  
The Impact

This paper discussed the analysis of the regional airport air volume forecast based on the classic GM (1, 1) model in the grey system theory. Focused on the impact of predict of the data by application of the original data sequence after preprocessing by the strengthen operator and weakening operator in sequence operator. Through the analysis and comparison of the concrete prediction of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region airport aviation data, found that in the process of predicting of the region Airport air volume, introduction of weakening/strengthen operator by combination with the area practical situation, as the result of the regional airport aviation prediction is conformity with the practical situation and forecasting precision is better.

Study on Safety and Stability of High Speed Milling Cutter Based on Grey System Theory

2010 ◽  
Vol 426-427 ◽  
pp. 643-647
Author(s):  
Bin Jiang ◽  
Wen Chao Xu ◽  
Wei Zhang ◽  
Min Li Zheng
Keyword(s):  
System Theory ◽  
High Speed ◽  
Structural Parameters ◽  
Grey System Theory ◽  
Structure Parameters ◽  
Grey System ◽  
Milling Cutter ◽  
High Speed Milling ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Safety And Stability

This work investigated safety and stability of high speed milling cutter using FEM and Penghuanwu discriminance, propounded safety and stability criterion of cutter, and analyzed absolute degree of incidence on safety and stability of cutter using grey system theory, the influence laws of structure parameters and their interaction on safety and stability of cutter were acquired. Experiments of idling and high speed milling were carried out, analyzed the impact degree of structural parameters on safety and stability of cutter, and results validated the dependability and validity of safety and stability cutting criterion.

Research on Factors Influence of Vegetation Slope Protection Based on Grey Incidence Analysis Theory

2012 ◽  
Vol 226-228 ◽  
pp. 1382-1385
Author(s):  
Feng Chen ◽  
Xiao Bo Xiong ◽  
Zhi Ming Zhai ◽  
Cheng Gu ◽  
Xin Bo Zhang
Keyword(s):  
System Theory ◽  
Grey System Theory ◽  
Good Prospect ◽  
Grey Theory ◽  
Grey System ◽  
Grey Incidence Analysis ◽  
The Stability ◽  
Incidence Analysis ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Bio Engineering

Vegetation Slope Protection Engineering was affected by several factors, and has become the focus of the geotechnical engineering. The stability of the vegetation slope must be controlled rigorous according to the surrounding environment condition and safety level of the slope in highway. According to the Grey Incidence Analysis (GIA) method of grey system theory, a new grey theory model is applied in analyzing of the characteristics of Eco-engineering protected by roots of vegetation, to attain the correlation coefficient affected by extent of the factors. After analysis of several practical Bio-engineering examples, to attain the most influencing factors of the stability of vegetation slope are the density of roots (ρ), the length of roots (L), the diameter of roots (D), the weight of soil (γ), the anti-pulling force of roots (P), internal friction angle (φ), cohesive strength(c) and the shear strength of the soil (τ). The role of factors is classified in order to define the extent of the impact and provide guidance for construction and design of Eco-engineering. After analyzing the data collected from the field and several classicistic documents, utilized Grey Incidence Analysis method to make prediction in order to guarantee the slope safety. It shows that the grey system theory can be effectively and practically adopted in the slope stability analysis of vegetation slope in expressway and that has a good prospect.

scholarly journals Revisiting linear regression of dynamical systems within the context of Zwanzig-Mori theory: tests on a simple system

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Hsu ◽  
Mohsen Mazrooyisebdani ◽  
Lucas Alan Sears ◽  
Anshika Singh ◽  
Mateo N Silver ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Linear Regression ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Time Correlation ◽  
Harmonic Oscillators ◽  
Simple System ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Mori Theory ◽  
Highly Nonlinear

<p>Linear regression can be applied to time series data to extract model parameters such as the effective force and friction constant matrices of the system. Even highly nonlinear systems can be analyzed by linear regression, if the total amount of data is broken up into shorter “time windows”, so that the dynamics is considered to be piece-wise linear. Traditionally, linear regression has been performed on the equation of motion itself (which approach we refer to as LRX). There has been surprisingly little published on the accuracy and reliability of LRX as applied to time series data. Here we show that linear regression can also be applied to the time correlation function of the dynamical observables (which approach we refer to as LRC), and that this approach is better justified within the context of statistical physics, namely, Zwanzig-Mori theory. We test LRC against LRX on a simple system of two damped harmonic oscillators driven by Gaussian random noise. We find that LRC allows one to improve the signal to noise ratio in a way that is not possible within LRX. Linear regression using time correlation functions (LRC) thus appears to be not only better justified theoretically, but it is more accurate and more versatile than LRX. <b></b></p>

scholarly journals Revisiting linear regression of dynamical systems within the context of Zwanzig-Mori theory: tests on a simple system

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Hsu ◽  
Mohsen Mazrooyisebdani ◽  
Lucas Alan Sears ◽  
Anshika Singh ◽  
Mateo N Silver ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Linear Regression ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Time Correlation ◽  
Harmonic Oscillators ◽  
Simple System ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Mori Theory ◽  
Highly Nonlinear

<p>Linear regression can be applied to time series data to extract model parameters such as the effective force and friction constant matrices of the system. Even highly nonlinear systems can be analyzed by linear regression, if the total amount of data is broken up into shorter “time windows”, so that the dynamics is considered to be piece-wise linear. Traditionally, linear regression has been performed on the equation of motion itself (which approach we refer to as LRX). There has been surprisingly little published on the accuracy and reliability of LRX as applied to time series data. Here we show that linear regression can also be applied to the time correlation function of the dynamical observables (which approach we refer to as LRC), and that this approach is better justified within the context of statistical physics, namely, Zwanzig-Mori theory. We test LRC against LRX on a simple system of two damped harmonic oscillators driven by Gaussian random noise. We find that LRC allows one to improve the signal to noise ratio in a way that is not possible within LRX. Linear regression using time correlation functions (LRC) thus appears to be not only better justified theoretically, but it is more accurate and more versatile than LRX. <b></b></p>

Prediction of Technical Reserves Based on Grey Model — GM(1,1): Evidence from Non-life Egyptian Insurance Market

2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (9) ◽  
pp. 852-860
Author(s):  
Mahmoud Elsayed ◽  
◽  
Amr Soliman ◽  
Keyword(s):  
System Theory ◽  
Grey System Theory ◽  
Insurance Market ◽  
Grey Model ◽  
Loss Ratio ◽  
Grey System ◽  
Mathematical Technique ◽  
Supervisory Authority ◽  
Error Ratio ◽  
Using Data

Grey system theory is a mathematical technique used to predict data with known and unknown characteristics. The aim of our research is to forecast the future amount of technical reserves (outstanding claims reserve, loss ratio fluctuations reserve and unearned premiums reserve) up to 2029/2030. This study applies the Grey Model GM(1,1) using data obtained from the Egyptian Financial Supervisory Authority (EFSA) over the period from 2005/2006 to 2015/2016 for non-life Egyptian insurance market. We found that the predicted amounts of outstanding claims reserve and loss ratio fluctuations reserve are highly significant than the unearned premiums reserve according to the value of Posterior Error Ratio (PER).

Impact of exchange rate and oil price on the yield of sovereign bond and sukuk: Evidence from Malaysian capital market

2017 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 27
Author(s):  
Huda Arshad ◽  
Ruhaini Muda ◽  
Ismah Osman
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Capital Market ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Sovereign Bond ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

This study analyses the impact of exchange rate and oil prices on the yield of sovereign bond and sukuk for Malaysian capital market. This study aims to ascertain the effect of weakening Malaysian Ringgit and declining of crude oil price on the fixed income investors in the emerging capital market. This study utilises daily time series data of Malaysian exchange rate, oil price and the yield of Malaysian sovereign bond and sukuk from year 2006 until 2015. The findings show that the weakening of exchange rate and oil prices contribute different impacts in the short and long run. In the short run, the exchange rate and oil prices does not have a direct relation with the yield of sovereign bond and sukuk. However, in the long run, the result reveals that there is a significant relationship between exchange rate and oil prices on the yield of sovereign bond and sukuk. It is evident that only a unidirectional causality relation is present between exchange rate and oil price towards selected yield of Malaysian sovereign bond and sukuk. This study provides numerical and empirical insights on issues relating to capital market that supports public authorities and private institutions on their decision and policymaking process.

Transport infrastructure of the Rostov Oblast: Problems and prospects for development in the context of national projects implementation

2020 ◽  
Vol 19 (6) ◽  
pp. 1015-1034
Author(s):  
O.Yu. Patrakeeva
Keyword(s):  
Time Series Data ◽  
Mutual Influence ◽  
Rostov Oblast ◽  
Transport Infrastructure ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Cointegration Tests ◽  
Level Of Economic Development ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

Subject. The paper considers national projects in the field of transport infrastructure, i.e. Safe and High-quality Roads and Comprehensive Plan for Modernization and Expansion of Trunk Infrastructure, and the specifics of their implementation in the Rostov Oblast. Objectives. The aim is to conduct a statistical assessment of the impact of transport infrastructure on the region’s economic performance and define prospects for and risks of the implementation of national infrastructure projects in conditions of a shrinking economy. Methods. I use available statistics and apply methods and approaches with time-series data, namely stationarity and cointegration tests, vector autoregression models. Results. The level of economic development has an impact on transport infrastructure in the short run. However, the mutual influence has not been statistically confirmed. The paper revealed that investments in the sphere of transport reduce risk of accidents on the roads of the Rostov Oblast. Improving the quality of roads with high traffic flow by reducing investments in the maintenance of subsidiary roads enables to decrease accident rate on the whole. Conclusions. In conditions of economy shrinking caused by the complex epidemiological situation and measures aimed at minimizing the spread of coronavirus, it is crucial to create a solid foundation for further economic recovery. At the government level, it is decided to continue implementing national projects as significant tools for recovery growth.

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