scholarly journals The Characteristics of Runoff Process Structure Changes under the Influence of Climate Change and Human Activities and the Decomposition of Contribution Rate of Impact Factors

Geofluids ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-9
Author(s):  
Xiaoyuan Song ◽  
Zhongyuan Zhu ◽  
XiaoKang Xi ◽  
Guibin Zhang ◽  
Hailong Wang
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Distribution Coefficient ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Human Activities ◽  
Potential Evapotranspiration ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Uneven Distribution ◽  
Impact Factors ◽  
Adjustment Coefficient ◽  
Contribution Rate

The research of the runoff structure and its influencing factors in the Xilinhe River Basin not only provides indispensable basic data for the economic development, but also has long-term significance for the protection of grasslands. Based on the runoff data of Xilinhot Hydrological Station from 1960 to 2010 and the daily meteorological data of three surrounding weather stations from 1960 to 2010, the paper calculated the potential evapotranspiration with Penman’s formula and used the combination of Mann-Kendall and Pettitt to diagnose the variation points of characteristic value of runoff distribution during the year. The cumulant slope change rate method is used to quantitatively analyze the contribution rate of climate change and human activities to the uneven distribution coefficient and the complete adjustment coefficient of runoff during the year. The results show that (1) the monthly distribution of runoff in the Xilinhe River Basin is obviously “bimodal” during the year, and the uneven coefficient, complete adjustment coefficient, and concentration in the 2000s are significantly higher than those of 60s-90s. (2) In 1998, the coefficient of uneven distribution of runoff in the Xilinhe River Basin and the coefficient of complete adjustment both showed abrupt changes. (3) Climate change and human activities contributed 11.48% and 88.52% and 9.35% and 90.65% to the uneven distribution coefficient and the complete adjustment coefficient, respectively, of the runoff in the Xilinhe River Basin. Human activities are the main driving factors for changes in the distribution of runoff in the Xilinhe River Basin during the year.

scholarly journals Streamflow into Beijing and Its Response to Climate Change and Human Activities over the Period 1956–2016

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 622 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xing Mu ◽  
Hao Wang ◽  
Yong Zhao ◽  
Huan Liu ◽  
Guohua He ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Human Activities ◽  
Potential Evapotranspiration ◽  
Spatial Scales ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Kendall Test ◽  
Spatial And Temporal Variability ◽  
Annual Streamflow ◽  
Significant Downward Trend ◽  
Human Effects

Streamflow is likely affected by climate change and human activities. In this study, hydro-meteorological data from six rivers upstream of Beijing, namely, the Yongdinghe, Baihe, Heihe, Chaohe, Juhe, and Jumahe Rivers, were analyzed to quantify the spatial and temporal variability of streamflow and their responses to climate change and human activities over the period of 1956–2016. The Mann–Kendall test and moving t-test were used to detect trends and changing points of the annual streamflow. Results showed that the streamflow into Beijing experienced a statistically significant downward trend (p < 0.05), abruptly changing after the early 1980s, owing to climate and human effects. The climate elasticities of the streamflow showed that a 10% decrease in precipitation would result in a 24.5% decrease in total streamflow, whereas a 10% decrease in potential evapotranspiration would induce a 37.7% increase in total streamflow. Human activities accounted for 87% of the reduction in total streamflow, whereas 13% was attributed to climate change. Lastly, recommendations are provided for adaptive management of water resources at different spatial scales.

scholarly journals Decomposition and Attribution Analysis of Runoff Alteration of the Dongting Lake in China

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (10) ◽  
pp. 2729
Author(s):  
Yuyun Huang ◽  
Minghui Yu ◽  
Haoyong Tian ◽  
Yujiao Liu
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Human Activities ◽  
Potential Evapotranspiration ◽  
Dominant Role ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Dongting Lake ◽  
Change Points ◽  
Runoff Change ◽  
Runoff Depth

The runoff process in the Dongting Lake has been influenced by climate change and human activities in recent decades. To manage the Dongting Lake efficiently and exploit water resources properly under the background of water shortage, it is desired to detect the factors of runoff change in the Dongting Lake. Hydro-meteorological data from 1961 to 2019 are analyzed to reveal the climate change and runoff alteration of the Dongting Lake comprehensively. Mutation test is used to detect the change points of runoff depth series, finding that 1984 and 2005 are change points and therefore 1961–1983, 1984–2004, and 2005–2019 are regarded as baseline period (BP), period 1 (P1), and period 2 (P2), respectively. Eight methods are used to quantitatively assess the relative contribution of human activities and climate change on runoff variation. It reveals that climate change especially precipitation change plays the dominant role (climate change makes runoff depth increase 70.14–121.51 mm, human activities make runoff depth decrease 51.98–103.35 mm) in runoff alteration in P1 while human activities play a prime role (account for 88.47–93.17%) in P2. Human activities such as reservoir construction, water consumption, and land-use (land-cover) change may be the main factors that influence the runoff in the Dongting Lake in P2. According to the sensitivity analysis, runoff in the Dongting Lake is more sensitive to climate change in P2 compared with that in P1, and no matter in P1 or P2, runoff is more sensitive to change in precipitation than the change in potential evapotranspiration. Combined with climate forecast, the results of sensitivity analysis can be used to estimate runoff change caused by climate change in the future.

scholarly journals Response of LUCC on Runoff Generation Process in Middle Yellow River Basin: The Gushanchuan Basin

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (5) ◽  
pp. 1237 ◽  
Author(s):  
Caihong Hu ◽  
Li Zhang ◽  
Qiang Wu ◽  
Shan-e-hyder Soomro ◽  
Shengqi Jian
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Human Activities ◽  
Yellow River ◽  
Trend Test ◽  
Generation Process ◽  
Runoff Generation ◽  
Contribution Rate ◽  
Runoff Reduction ◽  
Runoff Change ◽  
Significant Downward Trend

Runoff reduction in most river basins in China has become a hotpot in recent years. The Gushanchuan river, a primary tributary of the middle Yellow river, Northern China, showed a significant downward trend in the last century. Little is known regarding the relative contributions of changing environment to the observed hydrological trends and response on the runoff generation process in its watershed. On the basis of observed hydrological and meteorological data from 1965–2010, the Mann-Kendall trend test and climate elasticity method were used to distinguish the effects of climate change and human activities on runoff in the Gushanchuan basin. The results indicate that the runoff in the Gushanchuan Basin has experienced significant declines as large as 77% from 1965 to 2010, and a mutation point occurred around 1997; the contribution rate of climate change to runoff change is 12.9–15.1%, and the contribution rate of human activities to runoff change is 84.9–87.1%. Then we divided long-term data sequence into two stages around the mutation point, and analyzed runoff generation mechanisms based on land use and cover changes (LUCC). We found that the floods in the Gushanchuan Basin were still dominated by Excess-infiltration runoff, but the proportion in 1965–1997 and 1998–2010 decreased gradually (68.46% and 45.83% in turn). The proportion of Excess-storage runoff and Mixed runoff has increased, which means that the runoff is made up of more runoff components. The variation law of the LUCC indicates that the forest area increased by 49.61%, the confluence time increased by 50.42%, and the water storage capacity of the watershed increased by 30.35%.

scholarly journals Effects of Climate Change and Human Activities on Soil Erosion in the Xihe River Basin, China

Water ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (8) ◽  
pp. 1085 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shanshan Guo ◽  
Zhengru Zhu ◽  
Leting Lyu
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Soil Erosion ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Human Activities ◽  
Sediment Load ◽  
Sudden Increase ◽  
Validation Period ◽  
Total Change ◽  
Calibration Period

Climate change and human activities are the major factors affecting runoff and sediment load. We analyzed the inter-annual variation trend of the average rainfall, air temperature, runoff and sediment load in the Xihe River Basin from 1969–2015. Pettitt’s test and the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model were used to detect sudden change in hydro-meteorological variables and simulate the basin hydrological cycle, respectively. According to the simulation results, we explored spatial distribution of soil erosion in the watershed by utilizing ArcGIS10.0, analyzed the average erosion modulus by different type of land use, and quantified the contributions of climate change and human activities to runoff and sediment load in changes. The results showed that: (1) From 1969–2015, both rainfall and air temperature increased, and air temperature increased significantly (p < 0.01) at 0.326 °C/10 a (annual). Runoff and sediment load decreased, and sediment load decreased significantly (p < 0.01) at 1.63 × 105 t/10 a. In 1988, air temperature experienced a sudden increase and sediment load decreased. (2) For runoff, R2 and Nash and Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (Ens) were 0.92 and 0.91 during the calibration period and 0.90 and 0.87 during the validation period, for sediment load, R2 and Ens were 0.60 and 0.55 during the calibration period and 0.70 and 0.69 during the validation period, meeting the model’s applicability requirements. (3) Soil erosion was worse in the upper basin than other regions, and highest in cultivated land. Climate change exacerbates runoff and sediment load with overall contribution to the total change of −26.54% and −8.8%, respectively. Human activities decreased runoff and sediment load with overall contribution to the total change of 126.54% and 108.8% respectively. Runoff and sediment load change in the Xihe River Basin are largely caused by human activities.

scholarly journals Vegetation Changes and Their Response to Global Change Based on NDVI in the Koshi River Basin of Central Himalayas Since 2000

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (16) ◽  
pp. 6644
Author(s):  
Xue Wu ◽  
Xiaomin Sun ◽  
Zhaofeng Wang ◽  
Yili Zhang ◽  
Qionghuan Liu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Human Activities ◽  
Vegetation Change ◽  
Precipitation Trend ◽  
Central Himalayas ◽  
Annual Minimum Temperature ◽  
Vegetation Activity ◽  
Koshi River Basin

Vegetation forms a main component of the terrestrial biosphere owing to its crucial role in land cover and climate change, which has been of wide concern for experts and scholars. In this study, we used MODIS (moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer) NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) data, land cover data, meteorological data, and DEM (Digital Elevation Model) data to do vegetation change and its relationship with climate change. First, we investigated the spatio-temporal patterns and variations of vegetation activity in the Koshi River Basin (KRB) in the central Himalayas from 2000 to 2018. Then, we combined NDVI change with climate factors using the linear method to examine their relationship, after that we used the literature review method to explore the influence of human activities to vegetation change. At the regional scale, the NDVIGS (Growth season NDVI) significantly increased in the KRB in 2000–2018, with significant greening over croplands in KRB in India. Further, the croplands and forest in the KRB in Nepal were mainly influenced by human interference. For example, improvements in agricultural fertilization and irrigation facilities as well as the success of the community forestry program in the KRB in Nepal increased the NDVIGS of the local forest. Climate also had a certain impact on the increase in NDVIGS. A significant negative correlation was observed between NDVIGS trend and the annual minimum temperature trend (TMN) in the KRB in India, but an insignificant positive correlation was noted between it and the total annual precipitation trend (PRE). NDVIGS significantly decreased over a small area, mainly around Kathmandu, due to urbanization. Increases in NDVIGS in the KRB have thus been mainly affected by human activities, and climate change has helped increase it to a certain extent.

scholarly journals Appropriateness of Potential Evapotranspiration Models for Climate Change Impact Analysis in Yarlung Zangbo River Basin, China

Atmosphere ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (8) ◽  
pp. 453 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pan ◽  
Xu ◽  
Xuan ◽  
Gu ◽  
Bai
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Climate Change Impact ◽  
Impact Analysis ◽  
Potential Evapotranspiration ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Historical Period ◽  
Yarlung Zangbo River ◽  
The Future ◽  
Change Impact

Evapotranspiration (ET) is an important element in the water and energy cycle. Potential evapotranspiration (PET) is an important measurement of ET. Its accuracy has significant influence on agricultural water management, irrigation planning, and hydrological modelling. However, whether current PET models are applicable under climate change or not, is still a question. In this study, five frequently used PET models were chosen, including one combination model (the FAO Penman-Monteith model, FAO-PM), two temperature-based models (the Blaney-Criddle and the Hargreaves models) and two radiation-based models (the Makkink and the Priestley-Taylor models), to estimate their appropriateness in the historical and future periods under climate change impact on the Yarlung Zangbo river basin, China. Bias correction methods were not only applied to the temperature output of Global Climate Models (GCMs), but also for radiation, humidity, and wind speed. It was demonstrated that the results from the Blaney-Criddle and Makkink models provided better agreement with the PET obtained by the FAO-PM model in the historical period. In the future period, monthly PET estimated by all five models show positive trends. The changes of PET under RCP8.5 are much higher than under RCP2.6. The radiation-based models show better appropriateness than the temperature-based models in the future, as the root mean square error (RMSE) value of the former models is almost half of the latter models. The radiation-based models are recommended for use to estimate PET under climate change in the Yarlung Zangbo river basin.

scholarly journals Attribution Analysis of Hydrological Drought Risk Under Climate Change and Human Activities: A Case Study on Kuye River Basin in China

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (10) ◽  
pp. 1958 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhang ◽  
Wang ◽  
Zhou
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Human Activities ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Research Area ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
Drought Risk ◽  
Drought Duration ◽  
Recurrence Period ◽  
The Impact

This study conducted quantitative diagnosis on the impact of climate change and human activities on drought risk. Taking the Kuye river basin (KRB) in China as the research area, we used variation point diagnosis, simulation of precipitation and runoff, drought risk assessment, and attribution quantification. The results show that: (1) the annual runoff sequence of KRB changed significantly after 1979, which was consistent with the introduction of large-scale coal mining; (2) under the same drought recurrence period, the drought duration and severity in the human activity stage were significantly worse than in the natural and simulation stages, indicating that human activities changed the drought risk in this area; and (3) human activities had little impact on drought severity in the short duration and low recurrence period, but had a greater impact in the long duration and high recurrence period. These results provide scientific guidance for the management, prevention, and resistance of drought; and guarantee sustainable economic and social development in the KRB.

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