scholarly journals Long-Term Predictions of COVID-19 in Some Countries by the SIRD Model

Complexity ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-18
Author(s):  
Lijun Pei ◽  
Mengyu Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Time Delay ◽  
Infection Rate ◽  
Cumulative Number ◽  
Death Rates ◽  
Containment Measures ◽  
The Finite Difference Method ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Nonautonomous Dynamic System ◽  
Piecewise Functions

As COVID-19 in some countries has increasingly become more severe, there have been significant efforts to develop models that forecast its evolution there. These models can help to control and prevent the outbreak of these infections. In this paper, we make long-term predictions based on the number of current confirmed cases, accumulative recovered cases, and dead cases of COVID-19 in some countries by the modeling approach. We use the SIRD (S: susceptible, I: infected, R: recovered, D: dead) epidemic model which is a nonautonomous dynamic system with incubation time delay to study the evolution of COVID-19 in some countries. From the analysis of the recent data, we find that the cure and death rates may not be constant and, in some countries, they are piecewise functions. They can be estimated from the delayed SIRD model by the finite difference method. According to the recent data and its subsequent cure and death rates, we can accurately estimate the parameters of the model and then predict the evolution of COVID-19 there. Through the predicted results, we can obtain the turning points, the plateau period, and the maximum number of COVID-19 cases. The predicted results suggest that the epidemic situation in some countries is very serious. It is advisable for the governments of these countries to take more stringent and scientific containment measures. Finally, we studied the impact of the infection rate β on COVID-19. We find that when the infection rate β decreases, the cumulative number of confirmed cases and the maximum number of currently infected cases will greatly decrease. The results further affirm that the containment techniques taken by these countries to curb the spread of COVID-19 should be strengthened further.

scholarly journals Impact of COVID-19 on the trade of goods and services in Spain

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Asier Minondo
Keyword(s):  
Negative Impact ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Firm Level ◽  
Health Crisis ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Goods And Services ◽  
Containment Measures ◽  
Trade Of Services ◽  
The Impact

Purpose This paper aims to analyze the impact of COVID-19 on the trade of goods and services in Spain. Design/methodology/approach This paper uses monthly trade data at the product, region and firm level. Findings The COVID-19 crisis has led to the sharpest collapse in the Spanish trade of goods and services in recent decades. The containment measures adopted to arrest the spread of the virus have caused an especially intense fall of trade in services. The large share of transport equipment, capital goods, products that are consumed outdoors (i.e., outdoor goods) and tourism in Spanish exports has made the COVID-19 trade crisis more intense in Spain than in the rest of the European Union. Practical implications The nature of the collapse suggests that trade in goods can recover swiftly when the health crisis ends. However, COVID-19 may have a long-term negative impact on the trade of services that rely on the movement of people. Originality/value It contributes to understand how COVID-19 has affected the trade in goods and services in Spain.

The Significant Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Supply Chains

2022 ◽  
pp. 185-202
Author(s):  
Ana Paula Lopes
Keyword(s):  
Supply Chains ◽  
Consumer Demand ◽  
Lessons Learned ◽  
The Other ◽  
Operational Decisions ◽  
Demand And Supply ◽  
The World ◽  
Containment Measures ◽  
The Impact

As the COVID-19 pandemic has spread across the world, the existence of disruptions in demand and supply have become more severe, conducted by containment measures taken by countries and affecting different sectors around the world. Although businesses and workplaces are restarting activities in some countries, with containment measures gradually being lifted, overall consumer demand is expected to remain low, also determined by the loss of jobs and income. Therefore, the scale of the impact on supply chains exceeded anything most companies had anticipated. This study aims to understand how companies were affected and identify some lessons learned about their vulnerabilities and the possible ways to address them in the long term. On the other hand, it is intended to reveal some of the impacts of COVID-19 and make some practical suggestions that can help in political and operational decisions to strengthen and build additional resilience in supply chains in the future.

scholarly journals COVID-19 vs. stakeholder engagement: the impact of coronavirus containment measures on stakeholder involvement in European energy research projects

2021 ◽  
Vol 1 ◽  
pp. 57
Author(s):  
Diana Süsser ◽  
Andrzej Ceglarz ◽  
Vassilis Stavrakas ◽  
Johan Lilliestam
Keyword(s):  
Stakeholder Engagement ◽  
Online Survey ◽  
Stakeholder Involvement ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Research Projects ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
Energy Research ◽  
Containment Measures ◽  
The Impact

The coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has affected societies and economies around the world, and the scientific community is no exception. Whereas the importance of stakeholder engagement in research has grown quickly the consequences of the pandemic on this has so far not been empirically studied. In this paper, we investigate the effects of the COVID-19 crisis on European energy research, in particular the stakeholder work, during the first wave of the coronavirus in spring and summer 2020. We pose the research questions: (i) How much of a problem are the coronavirus containment measures for stakeholder engagement? (ii) How have researchers coped with the situation, and (iii) How do they evaluate alternative stakeholder activities implemented? We conducted an online survey among European energy research projects with stakeholder engagement between June and August 2020. We found that only one of six engagement activities could be implemented as planned, whereas almost half were cancelled or delayed. The most common coping strategies were changing involvement formats – mainly to webinars or online workshops – or postponement. Whereas respondents are largely satisfied with one-to-one and unidirectional online formats, such as webinars, online interviews, and online surveys, they see interactive group activities as less suitable for online engagement. Most respondents plan to continue using online formats to complement, but not to replace, physical meetings in future research. All long-term effects remain to be seen, but given the postponement of many stakeholder involvement activities, many projects may face problems at later stages of their realisation. These findings suggest that the pandemic may have catalysed a rapid introduction of specific online formats in academic stakeholder interaction processes.

scholarly journals Avoidable Mortality Attributable to Anthropogenic Fine Particulate Matter (PM2.5) in Australia

2020 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
pp. 254
Author(s):  
Ivan C. Hanigan ◽  
Richard A. Broome ◽  
Timothy B. Chaston ◽  
Martin Cope ◽  
Martine Dennekamp ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Particulate Matter ◽  
Fine Particulate Matter ◽  
Weighted Average ◽  
Attributable Mortality ◽  
Years Of Life Lost ◽  
Avoidable Mortality ◽  
Death Rates ◽  
Fine Particulate ◽  
The Impact

Ambient fine particulate matter <2.5 µm (PM2.5) air pollution increases premature mortality globally. Some PM2.5 is natural, but anthropogenic PM2.5 is comparatively avoidable. We determined the impact of long-term exposures to the anthropogenic PM component on mortality in Australia. PM2.5-attributable deaths were calculated for all Australian Statistical Area 2 (SA2; n = 2310) regions. All-cause death rates from Australian mortality and population databases were combined with annual anthropogenic PM2.5 exposures for the years 2006–2016. Relative risk estimates were derived from the literature. Population-weighted average PM2.5 concentrations were estimated in each SA2 using a satellite and land use regression model for Australia. PM2.5-attributable mortality was calculated using a health-impact assessment methodology with life tables and all-cause death rates. The changes in life expectancy (LE) from birth, years of life lost (YLL), and economic cost of lost life years were calculated using the 2019 value of a statistical life. Nationally, long-term population-weighted average total and anthropogenic PM2.5 concentrations were 6.5 µg/m3 (min 1.2–max 14.2) and 3.2 µg/m3 (min 0–max 9.5), respectively. Annually, anthropogenic PM2.5-pollution is associated with 2616 (95% confidence intervals 1712, 3455) deaths, corresponding to a 0.2-year (95% CI 0.14, 0.28) reduction in LE for children aged 0–4 years, 38,962 (95%CI 25,391, 51,669) YLL and an average annual economic burden of $6.2 billion (95%CI $4.0 billion, $8.1 billion). We conclude that the anthropogenic PM2.5-related costs of mortality in Australia are higher than community standards should allow, and reductions in emissions are recommended to achieve avoidable mortality.

scholarly journals Predicting the cumulative medical load of COVID-19 outbreaks after the peak in daily fatalities

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Claudius Gros ◽  
Roser Valenti ◽  
Lukas Schneider ◽  
Benedikt Gutsche ◽  
Dimitrije Markovic
Keyword(s):  
Sir Model ◽  
Cumulative Number ◽  
Hospitalised Patients ◽  
Before And After ◽  
The Status ◽  
Containment Measures ◽  
Short And Long Term ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Fixed Period

The distinct ways the COVID-19 pandemics has been unfolding in different countries and regions suggest that local societal and governmental structures play an essential role both for the baseline infection rate and the short-term and long-term reaction to the outbreak. Here we investigate how societies as a whole, and governments, in particular, modulate the dynamics of a novel epidemic using a generalisation of the SIR model, the controlled SIR model. We posit that containment measures correspond to feedback between the status of the outbreak (the daily or the cumulative number of cases and fatalities) and the reproduction factor. We present the exact phase space solution of the controlled SIR model and use it to quantify containment policies for a large number of countries in terms of short- and long-term control parameters. Furthermore, we identified for numerous countries a relationship between the number of fatalities within a fixed period before and after the peak in daily fatalities. As the number of fatalities corresponds to the number of hospitalised patients, the relationship can be used to predict the cumulative medical load, once the effectiveness of outbreak suppression policies is established with sufficient certainty.

scholarly journals Forecasting the impact of the containment measures for COVID-19 in France, Italy, and Spain

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Omar A Almohammed ◽  
Abdullah A. Alhifany ◽  
Yazed S. Al-Ruthia
Keyword(s):  
Similar Rate ◽  
Response Strategy ◽  
Cumulative Number ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Infected People ◽  
First Response ◽  
Trained Personnel ◽  
Containment Measures ◽  
Visual Reference ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Background: The Coronavirus disease of 2019 (COVID-19) is now a major challenge for healthcare systems in many countries, including some of the G20 countries like China, Italy and France. The purpose of this paper was to estimate how this disease could impact Italy, Spain and France, in comparison to China, based on the timing of their first response to the epidemic.Methods: The study visually estimated when will the suppression strategies implemented in Italy, Spain and France would change the direction of the daily new infections curve. The study utilizes the publicly available data from the WHO website. The curve representing the response strategy from China was used as a visual reference in this case, assuming that the virus is impacting all populations in the same way, transmitted in similar rate, and the time needed from the implementation of the suppression strategies to the appearance of its impact would be identical in all countries. Then, the total number of cases and deaths will be estimated from the produced curve, based on the current death rate among all infected people in each countryResult: The response in the three countries was not as fast as it was in China. Based on the cumulative number of cases at the response time, France was the fastest responder to the epidemic; therefore, we expect it will be the least impacted among three countries with about 97,523 cases and 4,876 deaths. Followed by Spain with approximately 153,013 cases and 14,536 deaths, then Italy with 162,885 cases and 20,034 deaths. The peak date for the new confirmed cases was expected to be around April 2nd for Italy and Spain, and April 6th for France. Then, the new daily cases should be declining to around Zero by the end of April or the beginning of May.Conclusion: Italy, followed by Spain, will be the most impacted countries in the European Union. Therefore, the support for Italy and Spain at this time is very needed, especially with medically trained personnel.

Coronavirus may cut global growth to 2% in early 2020

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
Infection Rate ◽  
Economic Effects ◽  
Chinese People ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Economic Threat ◽  
Key Characteristics ◽  
Containment Measures ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Global Growth

Subject Economic impact of the coronavirus. Significance The shape of the human and economic effects of such epidemics can be easily mapped, but the scale and length can vary enormously. Critical factors determining this include the key characteristics of the virus, the efficacy of containment measures and the type of economies involved. China accounts for a far larger share of world GDP and trade than in past decades, and this epidemic poses a serious economic threat in coming months. The death rate seems to be much lower than for SARS in 2003 but the infection rate is far higher. The third key characteristic, the incubation rate, is similar, at two weeks. Impacts The epidemic and the ensuing economic turbulence will continue for at least two months despite substantial quarantine efforts. If the infection rate is similar to annual flu strains and quarantining is ineffective, many millions of Chinese people could be infected. The pharmaceutical industry aims to produce a vaccine in record time, boosting confidence in the ability of science to manage outbreaks. Financial markets enjoyed a New Year rally, but volatility is likely to surge as markets will struggle to price the impact of the outbreak.

scholarly journals Simulating the Impact of Long-Term Care Prevention Among Older Japanese People on Healthcare Costs From 2020 to 2040 Using System Dynamics Modeling

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nobuo Nishi ◽  
Nayu Ikeda ◽  
Takehiro Sugiyama ◽  
Kayo Kurotani ◽  
Motohiko Miyachi
Keyword(s):  
Healthcare Costs ◽  
Long Term Care ◽  
Dynamics Modeling ◽  
Japanese People ◽  
Care Needs ◽  
Term Care ◽  
Death Rates ◽  
Annual Reduction ◽  
The Impact

Objectives: This study examined how healthcare costs might change by reducing long-term care needs among older Japanese people.Methods: A simulation model was constructed comprising two aging chains for independent and dependent people aged ≥65 years by sex. Changes in the base run from 2020 to 2040 were compared with those in two hypothetical scenarios: a 2% annual reduction in death rates (S1), and S1 plus a 2% annual reduction in the proportion of dependent people aged 65 years and in transition rates from the independent to dependent state for people aged ≥65 years (S2).Results: In the base run, the population increased by 13.0% for men and 11.3% for women, and the proportion of dependent people increased by 4.6% for men but decreased by 13.4% for women. The sum of medical and long-term care expenditure increased in the base run, S1, and S2 by 8.2, 27.4, and 16.4%, respectively, for men and women combined.Conclusions: Healthcare costs will increase as death rates fall, but the increase will be attenuated if the proportion of dependent people decreases.

scholarly journals Development Committee

Policy Papers ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (49) ◽  
Author(s):  
Keyword(s):  
Low Income ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Developing Economies ◽  
Small States ◽  
Significant Deterioration ◽  
Multilateral Cooperation ◽  
Containment Measures ◽  
Development Committee ◽  
The Impact

The global economy is embarking on a lengthy path to recovery with modest growth expected for 2021, after a severe contraction this year. The global forecast is subject to unusually large risks. Emerging markets and developing economies face an uphill battle. Low-income developing countries are in an especially vulnerable position and risk a persistent and significant deterioration in development prospects. Controlling the pandemic and cushioning the impact on the economy are key. LIDCs should adopt targeted containment measures and strictly prioritize spending and refrain from policies that could create long term damage. Multilateral cooperation and extensive support from the international community are indispensable. The IMF has helped EMDEs through emergency lending and debt service relief. Targeted surveillance and capacity development will tackle new policy challenges and react nimbly to the needs of the membership including fragile and small states.

scholarly journals COVID-19 prediction in South Africa: Understanding the unascertained cases -- the hidden part of the epidemiological iceberg

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xuelin Gu ◽  
Bhramar Mukherjee ◽  
Sonali Das ◽  
Jyotishka Datta
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Cumulative Number ◽  
Epidemiological Models ◽  
Intervention Measures ◽  
Long Term Forecasting ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions

Background: Understanding the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions remains a critical epidemiological problem in South Africa that reported the largest number of confirmed COVID-19 cases and deaths from the African continent. Methods: In this study, we applied two existing epidemiological models, an extension of the Susceptible-Infected-Removed model (eSIR) and SAPHIRE, to fit the daily ascertained infected (and removed) cases from March 15 to July 31 in South Africa. To combine the desirable features from the two models, we further extended the eSIR model to an eSEIRD model. Results: Using the eSEIRD model, the COVID-19 transmission dynamics in South Africa was characterized by the estimated basic reproduction number (R0) at 2.10 (95%CI: [2.09,2.10]). The decrease of effective reproduction number with time implied the effectiveness of interventions. The low estimated ascertained rate was found to be 2.17% (95%CI: [2.15%, 2.19%]) in the eSEIRD model. The overall infection fatality ratio (IFR) was estimated as 0.04% (95%CI: [0.02%, 0.06%]) while the reported case fatality ratio was 4.40% (95% CI: [<0.01%, 11.81%]). As of December 31, 2020, the cumulative number of ascertained cases and total infected would reach roughly 801 thousand and 36.9 million according to the long-term forecasting. Conclusions: The dynamics based on our models suggested a decline of COVID-19 infection and that the severity of the epidemic might be largely mitigated through strict interventions. Besides providing insights on the COVID-19 dynamics in South Africa, we develop powerful forecasting tools that allow incorporating ascertained rate and IFR estimation and inquiring into the effect of intervention measures on COVID-19 spread.

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