scholarly journals Predicting the cumulative medical load of COVID-19 outbreaks after the peak in daily fatalities

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Claudius Gros ◽  
Roser Valenti ◽  
Lukas Schneider ◽  
Benedikt Gutsche ◽  
Dimitrije Markovic
Keyword(s):  
Sir Model ◽  
Cumulative Number ◽  
Hospitalised Patients ◽  
Before And After ◽  
The Status ◽  
Containment Measures ◽  
Short And Long Term ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Fixed Period

The distinct ways the COVID-19 pandemics has been unfolding in different countries and regions suggest that local societal and governmental structures play an essential role both for the baseline infection rate and the short-term and long-term reaction to the outbreak. Here we investigate how societies as a whole, and governments, in particular, modulate the dynamics of a novel epidemic using a generalisation of the SIR model, the controlled SIR model. We posit that containment measures correspond to feedback between the status of the outbreak (the daily or the cumulative number of cases and fatalities) and the reproduction factor. We present the exact phase space solution of the controlled SIR model and use it to quantify containment policies for a large number of countries in terms of short- and long-term control parameters. Furthermore, we identified for numerous countries a relationship between the number of fatalities within a fixed period before and after the peak in daily fatalities. As the number of fatalities corresponds to the number of hospitalised patients, the relationship can be used to predict the cumulative medical load, once the effectiveness of outbreak suppression policies is established with sufficient certainty.

scholarly journals Predicting the cumulative medical load of COVID-19 outbreaks after the peak in daily fatalities

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (4) ◽  
pp. e0247272
Author(s):  
Claudius Gros ◽  
Roser Valenti ◽  
Lukas Schneider ◽  
Benedikt Gutsche ◽  
Dimitrije Marković
Keyword(s):  
Phase Space ◽  
Sir Model ◽  
Reaction Model ◽  
Space Representation ◽  
Cumulative Number ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Before And After ◽  
The Status ◽  
Short And Long Term

The distinct ways the COVID-19 pandemic has been unfolding in different countries and regions suggest that local societal and governmental structures play an important role not only for the baseline infection rate, but also for short and long-term reactions to the outbreak. We propose to investigate the question of how societies as a whole, and governments in particular, modulate the dynamics of a novel epidemic using a generalization of the SIR model, the reactive SIR (short-term and long-term reaction) model. We posit that containment measures are equivalent to a feedback between the status of the outbreak and the reproduction factor. Short-term reaction to an outbreak corresponds in this framework to the reaction of governments and individuals to daily cases and fatalities. The reaction to the cumulative number of cases or deaths, and not to daily numbers, is captured in contrast by long-term reaction. We present the exact phase space solution of the controlled SIR model and use it to quantify containment policies for a large number of countries in terms of short and long-term control parameters. We find increased contributions of long-term control for countries and regions in which the outbreak was suppressed substantially together with a strong correlation between the strength of societal and governmental policies and the time needed to contain COVID-19 outbreaks. Furthermore, for numerous countries and regions we identified a predictive relation between the number of fatalities within a fixed period before and after the peak of daily fatality counts, which allows to gauge the cumulative medical load of COVID-19 outbreaks that should be expected after the peak. These results suggest that the proposed model is applicable not only for understanding the outbreak dynamics, but also for predicting future cases and fatalities once the effectiveness of outbreak suppression policies is established with sufficient certainty. Finally, we provide a web app (https://itp.uni-frankfurt.de/covid-19/) with tools for visualising the phase space representation of real-world COVID-19 data and for exporting the preprocessed data for further analysis.

QUALITY OF LIFE PROBLEMS OF GYNECOLOGICAL CANCER PATIENTS

2017 ◽  
Vol 63 (3) ◽  
pp. 368-374
Author(s):  
Olga Churuksaeva ◽  
Larisa Kolomiets
Keyword(s):  
Quality Of Life ◽  
Gynecological Cancer ◽  
Social Aspects ◽  
Cancer Data ◽  
Life Problems ◽  
Anticancer Treatment ◽  
Short And Long Term ◽  
The Relationship

Due to improvements in short- and long-term clinical outcomes a study of quality of life is one of the most promising trends in oncology today. This review analyzes the published literature on problems dealing with quality of life of patients with gynecological cancer. Data on quality of life with respect to the extent of anticancer treatment as well as psychological and social aspects are presented. The relationship between quality of life and survival has been estimated.

The Relationship Between Brain Fog and Medication Adherence for Individuals With Hypothyroidism

2021 ◽  
pp. 105477382110381
Author(s):  
Kelly Haskard-Zolnierek ◽  
Courtney Wilson ◽  
Julia Pruin ◽  
Rebecca Deason ◽  
Krista Howard
Keyword(s):  
Memory Impairment ◽  
Hormone Replacement ◽  
Long Term Memory ◽  
Adherence Level ◽  
Thyroid Hormone Replacement ◽  
Memory Impairments ◽  
Cognitive Failures ◽  
Short And Long Term ◽  
The Relationship

Individuals with hypothyroidism suffer from symptoms including impairments to cognition (i.e., “brain fog”). Medication can help reduce symptoms of hypothyroidism; however, brain fog may hinder adherence. The aim of this study was to determine if memory impairment and cognitive failures are related to treatment nonadherence in 441 individuals with hypothyroidism. Participants with a diagnosis of hypothyroidism and currently prescribed a thyroid hormone replacement medication were placed in two groups according to adherence level and compared on validated scales assessing impairments to memory and cognition. Results indicated a significant association between treatment nonadherence and self-reported brain fog, represented by greater cognitive and memory impairments. Nonadherent individuals indicated impairments with prospective, retrospective, and short- and long-term memory; and more cognitive failures, compared to adherent individuals. Findings suggest the importance of interventions to enhance adherence for individuals with brain fog, such as encouraging the use of reminders.

scholarly journals Long-term complications after stent assist coiling dependent on clopidogrel response

BMC Neurology ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Kenji Shoda ◽  
Yukiko Enomoto ◽  
Yusuke Egashira ◽  
Takamasa Kinoshita ◽  
Daisuke Mizutani ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Acute Phase ◽  
Platelet Reactivity ◽  
Unruptured Aneurysms ◽  
Hemorrhagic Events ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Verifynow Assay ◽  
Previously Treated ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Delayed Phase

Abstract Background Dual antiplatelet therapy (DAPT) is necessary for stent assisted coiling. However, long term use of DAPT has a potential risk of hemorrhagic events. We aimed to examine the relationship between clopidogrel reactivity and complications. Methods Patients who underwent stent assisted coiling for unruptured aneurysms or previously treated aneurysms and received periprocedural DAPT in our institution between August 2011 to March 2020 were included. Platelet reactivity for clopidogrel was measured by VerifyNow assay system, and we defined the cut off value of P2Y12 Reaction Units (PRU) at 208 and classified patients as hypo-responders (PRU≧208) or responders (PRU<208). The rates of hemorrhagic and thrombotic events within 30 days (acute phase) and 30 days after the procedure (delayed phase) were compared between the two groups. Furthermore, changes in hemoglobin levels were measured before and after the procedure and at chronic stages (1 to 6 months thereafter). Results From 61 patients included in this study, 36 patients were hypo-responders and 25 patients were responders. Hemorrhagic events occurred 8.0% only in responders in the acute phase (p = 0.16), and 2.78% in hypo-responders and 20.0% in responders in the delayed phase (p = 0.037). Changes in hemoglobin levels before and after the procedure were 1.22 g/dl in hypo-responders and 1.74 g/dl in responders (p = 0.032) while before the procedure and chronic stages they were 0.39 g/dl in hypo-responders and 1.39 g/dl in responders (p <  0.01). Thrombotic events were not significantly different between the two groups. Conclusion Long term use of DAPT after stent assisted coiling is related to hemorrhagic events in the delayed phase. Preventing for hemorrhagic events, the duration of DAPT should be carefully considered in clopidogrel responders.

ISSUES OF THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE STATE BUDGET AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN UZBEKISTAN

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (7) ◽  
pp. 4-19
Author(s):  
Akmal Baltayevich Allakuliev ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
The State ◽  
Rate Of Return ◽  
State Budget ◽  
Macroeconomic Shocks ◽  
Dynamic Correlations ◽  
Short And Long Term ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

The article examines the interaction of the country's GDP with the state budget in the short and long term, the impact of the macro-fiscal mechanism on the country's economic growth on the example of Uzbekistan.The aim of the study is to identify dynamic correlations between the country's state budget expenditures and the economic growth of the macro-fiscal mechanism in the short and long term, as well as to analyze the approximation or rate of return of GDP and the state budget to equilibrium during various macroeconomic shocks. and hesitation.The scientific novelties of the research are:

scholarly journals Post-COVID-19 Pulmonary Fibrosis: Report of Two Cases

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Saurabh Karmakar ◽  
Priya Sharma ◽  
Ameet Harishkumar ◽  
Deependra Kumar Rai
Keyword(s):  
Respiratory Failure ◽  
Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome ◽  
Pulmonary Fibrosis ◽  
Restrictive Lung Disease ◽  
Hospitalised Patients ◽  
Short And Long Term ◽  
Remarkable Progress ◽  
Made In

COVID-19 caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 has led to a pandemic situation worldwide. However, remarkable progress has been made in evolving policies, strengthening healthcare efforts, and pharmacotherapy. As more patients are recovering from COVID-19, clearer concepts about possible short- and long-term complications are emerging. Respiratory failure is the most common morbidity in hospitalised patients, and post-COVID-19 pulmonary fibrosis is the most common respiratory complication after recovery. The authors report two cases of COVID-19 pneumonia with respiratory failure who were cured but developed pulmonary fibrosis with restrictive lung disease in the follow-up period.

Consumer confusion moderates the inertia–purchase intention relationship

2018 ◽  
Vol 46 (3) ◽  
pp. 387-394 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jerry Yuwen Shiu ◽  
Shian-Yang Tzeng
Keyword(s):  
Purchase Intention ◽  
Brand Image ◽  
Belief System ◽  
Consumer Trust ◽  
Convenience Store ◽  
Convenience Stores ◽  
Consumer Confusion ◽  
Short And Long Term ◽  
The Relationship

We investigated the moderating effect of consumer confusion on the relationship between inertia and purchase intention. Customers (N = 166) were approached randomly with a request to complete our survey as they finished shopping at a convenience store in Taiwan in August 2014. The results revealed that the purchase intention behavior relied on consumer inertia, which increased when consumers were confused because they were less capable of making rational buying decisions when choosing between retailer brands in the marketplace. In a marketing campaign context, our findings show that substantial differentiation is crucial for convenience store chains to strengthen the belief system and behavioral routines of their customers, thereby helping the convenience stores to strengthen their brand image, build consumer trust, achieve a competitive advantage, and capture a greater share of the market in both the short and long term.

Longitudinal Observations of the Relationship Between Free Erythrocyte Porphyrins and Whole Blood Lead

PEDIATRICS ◽  
1976 ◽  
Vol 57 (1) ◽  
pp. 54-59
Author(s):  
J. Routt Reigart ◽  
Norris H. Whitlock
Keyword(s):  
Whole Blood ◽  
Blood Lead ◽  
Elevated Blood ◽  
Long Term Follow Up ◽  
Short And Long Term ◽  
First Contact ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Clinical Category

Short- and long-term comparison of the variations with time of whole blood lead and free erythrocyte porphyrins (FEP) suggests that changes in FEP are slow and predictable whereas blood lead changes are quite unpredictable. However, when FEP suggests a different clinical category from blood lead, the blood lead is likely to change in the direction predicted by the FEP. Comparison of FEP to blood lead at first contact in 349 children with mild elevation of blood lead reliably predicted which children would still have elevated blood lead six weeks later and which would fall or be normal. The observation of long-term follow-up in four groups of children with various combinations of FEP and blood lead indicated that the follow-up blood lead could be predicted to change in the direction indicated by the FEP measurement. The implications for screening for lead poisoning are discussed.

Cannabis and Its Different Strains

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-10
Author(s):  
Anna Muro ◽  
Ramon Cladellas ◽  
Judit Castellà
Keyword(s):  
Control Group ◽  
Temporal Perception ◽  
Self Medication ◽  
Therapeutic Uses ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Cannabis Consumption ◽  
Short And Long Term ◽  
Different Strains ◽  
Main Effects

Abstract. Previous studies show how time perception can be altered by cannabis consumption, but it is not clear yet whether cannabis produces temporal underproductions or overproductions after acute cannabis intoxication. The present study aimed to analyze a sample of 50 regular cannabis users controlling for cannabis strain (sativa, indica, and hybrid) and to compare their scores in a temporal production task before and after consuming cannabis with a control group of 49 nonusers. Results showed that cannabis intake leads to overproductions, suggesting that regular users’ internal tempo slows down after acute intoxication. However, the analyses of main effects showed that indica users, both at baseline levels and after consuming, reported significant underproductions compared to controls, sativa, and hybrid users, and the cannabis-induced effects had a higher magnitude after smoking in the indica-strain group. Results highlight the relevance of including the type of strain consumed in cannabis studies, and they are discussed in terms of short- and long-term alterations in temporal perception under the light of the self-medication theory and the therapeutic uses of cannabis.

The Banco de Avío

2021 ◽  
pp. 442-464
Author(s):  
Eric Van Young
Keyword(s):  
Development Strategy ◽  
Textile Industry ◽  
The State ◽  
Development Bank ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Silver Mining ◽  
Short And Long Term ◽  
Textile Sector

At Alamán’s initiative a law of 1830 established the Banco de Avío, a government-funded development bank for the spurring of industrialization, especially in the textile sector, with which his name has forever been associated. His views of industrialization as a development strategy as opposed to a renewed reliance upon silver mining are discussed, as well as the short- and long-term effects of loans made to textile entrepreneurs and the cronyism employed by Alamán both in organizing the Banco itself and in allotting its capital as loans to industrialists. The state of the textile industry in Mexico before and after the Banco is described.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document