scholarly journals A Grey Seasonal Index Model for Forecasting Groundwater Depth of Ningxia Plain

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-13
Author(s):  
Ziqi Yin ◽  
Kai Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Model Performance ◽  
Groundwater Depth ◽  
Grey Model ◽  
Index Model ◽  
Seasonal Characteristics ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Arid And Semiarid Areas ◽  
Seasonal Index ◽  
Fitting Error ◽  
Yinchuan Plain

Forecasting the depth of groundwater in arid and semiarid areas is a great challenge because these areas are complex hydrogeological environments and the observational data are limited. To deal with this problem, the grey seasonal index model is proposed. The seasonal characteristics of time series were represented by indicators, and the grey model with fractional-order accumulation was employed to fit and forecast different periodic indicators and long-term trends, respectively. Then, the prediction results of the two were combined together to obtain the prediction results. To verify the model performance, the proposed model is applied to groundwater prediction in Yinchuan Plain. The results show that the fitting error of the proposed model is 2.08%, while for comparison, the fitting error of the grey model of data grouping and Holt–Winters model is 3.94% and 5%, respectively. In the same way, it is concluded that the fitting error of groundwater in Weining Plain by the proposed model is 2.26%. On the whole, the groundwater depth in Ningxia Plain including Yinchuan Plain and Weining Plain will increase further.

A new seasonal cycle GM (1,1) model and its application in railway passenger volume forecasting

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Huan Wang ◽  
Yuhong Wang ◽  
Dongdong Wu
Keyword(s):  
Seasonal Cycle ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Grey Model ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Quarterly Data ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Passenger Volume ◽  
Railway Passenger ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Seasonal Index

PurposeTo predict the passenger volume reasonably and accurately, this paper fills the gap in the research of quarterly data forecast of railway passenger volume. The research results can also provide references for railway departments to plan railway operation lines reasonably and efficiently.Design/methodology/approachThis paper intends to establish a seasonal cycle first order univariate grey model (GM(1,1) model) combing with a seasonal index. GM (1,1) is termed as the trend equation to fit the railway passenger volume in China from 2014 to 2018. The railway passenger volume in 2019 is used as the experimental data to verify the forecasting effect of the proposed model. The forecasting results of the seasonal cycle GM (1,1) model are compared with the traditional GM (1,1) model, seasonal grey model (SGM(1,1)), Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model, moving average method and exponential smoothing method. Finally, the authors forecast the railway passenger volume from 2020 to 2022.FindingsThe quarterly data of national railway passenger volume have a clear tendency of cyclical fluctuations and show an annual growth trend. According to the comparison of the modeling results, the authors know that the seasonal cycle GM (1,1) model has the best prediction effect with the mean absolute percentage error of 1.32%. It is much better than the other models, reflecting the feasibility of the proposed model.Originality/valueAs the previous grey prediction model could not solve the series prediction problem with seasonal fluctuation, and there are few research studies on quarterly railway passenger volume forecasting, GM (1,1) model is taken as the trend equation and combined with the seasonal index to construct a combination forecasting model for accurate forecasting results in this study. Besides, considering the impact of the epidemic on passenger volume, the authors introduce a disturbance factor to deal with the forecasting results in 2020, making the modeling results more scientific, practical and referential.

scholarly journals Nodule Detection with Convolutional Neural Network Using Apache Spark and GPU Frameworks

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (6) ◽  
pp. 2838
Author(s):  
Nikitha Johnsirani Venkatesan ◽  
Dong Ryeol Shin ◽  
Choon Sung Nam
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Radiation Dose ◽  
Convolutional Neural Network ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
Performance Comparison ◽  
Apache Spark ◽  
Training Time ◽  
Learning Framework ◽  
Proposed Model

In the pharmaceutical field, early detection of lung nodules is indispensable for increasing patient survival. We can enhance the quality of the medical images by intensifying the radiation dose. High radiation dose provokes cancer, which forces experts to use limited radiation. Using abrupt radiation generates noise in CT scans. We propose an optimal Convolutional Neural Network model in which Gaussian noise is removed for better classification and increased training accuracy. Experimental demonstration on the LUNA16 dataset of size 160 GB shows that our proposed method exhibit superior results. Classification accuracy, specificity, sensitivity, Precision, Recall, F1 measurement, and area under the ROC curve (AUC) of the model performance are taken as evaluation metrics. We conducted a performance comparison of our proposed model on numerous platforms, like Apache Spark, GPU, and CPU, to depreciate the training time without compromising the accuracy percentage. Our results show that Apache Spark, integrated with a deep learning framework, is suitable for parallel training computation with high accuracy.

A Novel Cloud-Assisted Secure Deep Feature Classification Framework for Cancer Histopathology Images

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (2) ◽  
pp. 1-22
Author(s):  
Abhinav Kumar ◽  
Sanjay Kumar Singh ◽  
K Lakshmanan ◽  
Sonal Saxena ◽  
Sameer Shrivastava
Keyword(s):  
Differential Privacy ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
Healthcare Services ◽  
Cloud Services ◽  
Efficient Computation ◽  
Sensitive Data ◽  
Classification Framework ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Diagnostic Framework ◽  
Histopathological Image Classification

The advancements in the Internet of Things (IoT) and cloud services have enabled the availability of smart e-healthcare services in a distant and distributed environment. However, this has also raised major privacy and efficiency concerns that need to be addressed. While sharing clinical data across the cloud that often consists of sensitive patient-related information, privacy is a major challenge. Adequate protection of patients’ privacy helps to increase public trust in medical research. Additionally, DL-based models are complex, and in a cloud-based approach, efficient data processing in such models is complicated. To address these challenges, we propose an efficient and secure cancer diagnostic framework for histopathological image classification by utilizing both differential privacy and secure multi-party computation. For efficient computation, instead of performing the whole operation on the cloud, we decouple the layers into two modules: one for feature extraction using the VGGNet module at the user side and the remaining layers for private prediction over the cloud. The efficacy of the framework is validated on two datasets composed of histopathological images of the canine mammary tumor and human breast cancer. The application of differential privacy preserving to the proposed model makes the model secure and capable of preserving the privacy of sensitive data from any adversary, without significantly compromising the model accuracy. Extensive experiments show that the proposed model efficiently achieves the trade-off between privacy and model performance.

scholarly journals Distilling Deep Structural Facial Relationships for FAU Intensity Estimation

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yingruo Fan ◽  
Jacqueline CK Lam ◽  
Victor On Kwok Li
Keyword(s):  
Structural Characteristics ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
Training Model ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Intensity Estimation ◽  
Structural Relationships ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Comparable Performance ◽  
Knowledge Distillation ◽  
The Difference

<div> <div> <div> <p>Facial emotions are expressed through a combination of facial muscle movements, namely, the Facial Action Units (FAUs). FAU intensity estimation aims to estimate the intensity of a set of structurally dependent FAUs. Contrary to the existing works that focus on improving FAU intensity estimation, this study investigates how knowledge distillation (KD) incorporated into a training model can improve FAU intensity estimation efficiency while achieving the same level of performance. Given the intrinsic structural characteristics of FAU, it is desirable to distill deep structural relationships, namely, DSR-FAU, using heatmap regression. Our methodology is as follows: First, a feature map-level distillation loss was applied to ensure that the student network and the teacher network share similar feature distributions. Second, the region-wise and channel-wise relationship distillation loss functions were introduced to penalize the difference in structural relationships. Specifically, the region-wise relationship can be represented by the structural correlations across the facial features, whereas the channel-wise relationship is represented by the implicit FAU co-occurrence dependencies. Third, we compared the model performance of DSR-FAU with the state-of-the-art models, based on two benchmarking datasets. Our proposed model achieves comparable performance with other baseline models, though requiring a lower number of model parameters and lower computation complexities. </p> </div> </div> </div>

scholarly journals An Updated Analytical Structural Pounding Force Model Based on Viscoelasticity of Materials

2016 ◽  
Vol 2016 ◽  
pp. 1-15 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qichao Xue ◽  
Chunwei Zhang ◽  
Jian He ◽  
Guangping Zou ◽  
Jingcai Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Vibration Control ◽  
Viscoelastic Model ◽  
Control Process ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
Analytical Models ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Force Model ◽  
Control Analysis ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Force Calculation

Based on the summary of existing pounding force analytical models, an updated pounding force analysis method is proposed by introducing viscoelastic constitutive model and contact mechanics method. Traditional Kelvin viscoelastic pounding force model can be expanded to 3-parameter linear viscoelastic model by separating classic pounding model parameters into geometry parameters and viscoelastic material parameters. Two existing pounding examples, the poundings of steel-to-steel and concrete-to-concrete, are recalculated by utilizing the proposed method. Afterwards, the calculation results are compared with other pounding force models. The results show certain accuracy in proposed model. The relative normalized errors of steel-to-steel and concrete-to-concrete experiments are 19.8% and 12.5%, respectively. Furthermore, a steel-to-polymer pounding example is calculated, and the application of the proposed method in vibration control analysis for pounding tuned mass damper (TMD) is simulated consequently. However, due to insufficient experiment details, the proposed model can only give a rough trend for both single pounding process and vibration control process. Regardless of the cheerful prospect, the study in this paper is only the first step of pounding force calculation. It still needs a more careful assessment of the model performance, especially in the presence of inelastic response.

scholarly journals A New Approach to Improve Accuracy of Grey Model GMC(1,n)in Time Series Prediction

2015 ◽  
Vol 2015 ◽  
pp. 1-10 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sompop Moonchai ◽  
Wanwisa Rakpuang
Keyword(s):  
Prediction Accuracy ◽  
Time Series Prediction ◽  
Electricity Consumption ◽  
Prediction Equation ◽  
Grey Model ◽  
System Behavior ◽  
New Approach ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Improve Accuracy ◽  
Relative Factors

This paper presents a modified grey model GMC(1,n)for use in systems that involve one dependent system behavior andn-1relative factors. The proposed model was developed from the conventional GMC(1,n)model in order to improve its prediction accuracy by modifying the formula for calculating the background value, the system of parameter estimation, and the model prediction equation. The modified GMC(1,n)model was verified by two cases: the study of forecasting CO2emission in Thailand and forecasting electricity consumption in Thailand. The results demonstrated that the modified GMC(1,n)model was able to achieve higher fitting and prediction accuracy compared with the conventional GMC(1,n)and D-GMC(1,n)models.

A novel fractional discrete nonlinear grey Bernoulli model for forecasting the wind turbine capacity of China

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Wen-ze Wu ◽  
Wanli Xie ◽  
Chong Liu ◽  
Tao Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Wind Turbine ◽  
Nonlinear Coefficient ◽  
Predictive Performance ◽  
Prediction Performance ◽  
New Method ◽  
Grey Model ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Whale Optimization ◽  
Turbine Capacity

PurposeA new method for forecasting wind turbine capacity of China is proposed through grey modelling technique.Design/methodology/approachFirst of all, the concepts of discrete grey model are introduced into the NGBM(1,1) model to reduce the discretization error from the differential equation to its discrete forms. Then incorporating the conformable fractional accumulation into the discrete NGBM(1,1) model is carried out to further improve the predictive performance. Finally, in order to effectively seek the emerging coefficients, namely, fractional order and nonlinear coefficient, the whale optimization algorithm (WOA) is employed to determine the emerging coefficients.FindingsThe empirical results show that the newly proposed model has a better prediction performance compared to benchmark models; the wind turbine capacity from 2019 to 2021 is expected to reach 275954.42 Megawatts in 2021. According to the forecasts, policy suggestions are provided for policy-makers.Originality/valueBy combing the fractional accumulation and the concepts of discrete grey model, a new method to improve the prediction performance of the NGBM(1,1) model is proposed. The newly proposed model is firstly applied to predict wind turbine capacity of China.

An Integrated Methodology for Evaluation of Electric Vehicles Under Sustainable Automotive Environment

2019 ◽  
pp. 41-62 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tapas Kumar Biswas ◽  
Željko Stević ◽  
Prasenjit Chatterjee ◽  
Morteza Yazdani
Keyword(s):  
Electric Vehicles ◽  
Sustainability Assessment ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
Compromise Solution ◽  
Holistic Model ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Criteria Importance ◽  
Assessment Problems ◽  
Selection Of

In this chapter, a holistic model based on a newly developed combined compromise solution (CoCoSo) and criteria importance through intercriteria correlation (CRITIC) method for selection of battery-operated electric vehicles (BEVs) has been propounded. A sensitivity analysis has been performed to verify the robustness of the proposed model. Performance of the proposed model has also been compared with some of the popular MCDM methods. It is observed that the model has the competency of precisely ranking the BEV alternatives for the considered case study and can be applied to other sustainability assessment problems.

Towards a Citizen-Centric E-Government Service Index Model

2015 ◽  
pp. 928-947
Author(s):  
Mohamed R. Zakaria ◽  
Tarek R. Gebba ◽  
Mohamed Gamal Aboelmaged
Keyword(s):  
Maturity Model ◽  
Government Service ◽  
Government Services ◽  
Index Model ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Government Development

The purpose of this chapter is three-fold. First, it proposes a novel E-Government Service Index (ESI) that is a citizen-centric maturity model. Second, the model uses Egypt's E-Government services as an experimental arena to spot the maturity of the provided services and highlights e-government development in Egypt. Finally, the chapter explores the impediments of citizen-centric e-government implementation within the Egyptian context and recommends specific interventions within the frame of the proposed model.

scholarly journals A Novel Discrete Grey Model and Its Application

2019 ◽  
Vol 2019 ◽  
pp. 1-6 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wen-Ze Wu ◽  
Jianming Jiang ◽  
Qi Li
Keyword(s):  
Tensile Strength ◽  
Arbitrary Number ◽  
Prediction Accuracy ◽  
Historical Data ◽  
Prediction Performance ◽  
Grey Model ◽  
Original Series ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Grey Models ◽  
Future Data

This paper aims to further increase the prediction accuracy of the grey model based on the existing discrete grey model, DGM(1,1). Herein, we begin by studying the connection between forecasts and the first entry of the original series. The results comprehensively show that the forecasts are independent of the first entry in the original series. On this basis, an effective method of inserting an arbitrary number in front of the first item of the original series to extract messages is applied to produce a novel grey model, which is abbreviated as FDGM(1,1) for simplicity. Incidentally, the proposed model can even forecast future data using only three historical data. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model, two classical examples of the tensile strength and life of the product are employed in this paper. The numerical results indicate that FDGM(1,1) has a better prediction performance than most commonly used grey models.

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