Predicting the Number of Suicides in Japan: A Vector Autoregression Time Series Model Using Internet Search Queries (Preprint)

BACKGROUND The number of suicides in Japan increased during the COVID-19 pandemic. Predicting the number of suicides is critical to take timely preventive measures. OBJECTIVE In this study, we examine whether the number and characteristics of suicides can be predicted based on the Internet search behavior and the search queries. METHODS The monthly number of suicides by gender, collected and published by the National Police Agency, was used as an outcome variable. The number of searches by gender on the queries associated with "suicide" on "Yahoo Search" from January 2016 to December 2020 was used as a predictive variable. The following five phrases highly relevant to "suicide" were searched before searching for the keyword "suicide," and extracted and used for analyses: "abuse," "work, don’t want to go," "company, want to quit," "divorce," and "no money." The Augmented Dickey–Fuller and Johansen's tests were performed for the original series and to verify the existence of unit roots and cointegration for each variable, respectively. The vector autoregression model was applied to predict the number of suicides. The Breusch–Godfrey Lagrangian multiplier (BG-LM) test, autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity Lagrangian multiplier (ARCH-LM) test, and Jarque–Bera (JB) test were employed to confirm model convergence. In addition, a Granger causality test was performed for each predictive variable. RESULTS In the original series, unit roots were found in the trend model, whereas in the first-order difference series, both men (minimum tau 3: −9.24, max tau 3: −5.38) and women (minimum tau 3: −9.24, max tau 3: −5.38) had no unit roots for all variables. In Johansen's test, a cointegration relationship was observed among several variables. The queries used in the converged models were "divorce" for men (BG-LM test: p= 0.55; ARCH-LM test: p= 0.63; JB test: p= 0.66) and "no money" for women (BG-LM test: p = 0.17; ARCH-LM test: p = 0.15; JB test: p= 0.10). In the Granger causality test for each variable, "divorce" was significant for both men (F= 3.29, p = 0.041) and women (F = 3.23, p = 0.044). ¬ CONCLUSIONS The number of suicides can be predicted by the search queries related to the keyword "suicide." Previous studies have reported that financial poverty and divorce are associated with suicide. The results of this study, in which search queries on "no money" and "divorce" predict suicide, support the findings of previous studies. Further research on the economic poverty of women and those with complex problems is necessary.

Evaluating Therapeutic Effects of ADHD Medication Objectively by Movement Quantification with a Video-Based Skeleton Analysis

Attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) is the most common neuropsychiatric disorder in children. Several scales are available to evaluate ADHD therapeutic effects, including the Swanson, Nolan, and Pelham (SNAP) questionnaire, the Vanderbilt ADHD Diagnostic Rating Scale, and the visual analog scale. However, these scales are subjective. In the present study, we proposed an objective and automatic approach for evaluating the therapeutic effects of medication in patients with (ADHD). The approach involved using movement quantification of patients’ skeletons detected automatically with OpenPose in outpatient videos. Eleven skeleton parameter series were calculated from the detected skeleton sequence, and the corresponding 33 features were extracted using autocorrelation and variance analysis. This study enrolled 25 patients with ADHD. The outpatient videos were recorded before and after medication treatment. Statistical analysis indicated that four features corresponding to the first autocorrelation coefficients of the original series of four skeleton parameters and 11 features each corresponding to the first autocorrelation coefficients of the differenced series and the averaged variances of the original series of 11 skeleton parameters significantly decreased after the use of methylphenidate, an ADHD medication. The results revealed that the proposed approach can support physicians as an objective and automatic tool for evaluating the therapeutic effects of medication on patients with ADHD.

The Complete Spectator

The Spectator was one of the greatest publishing sensations of the eighteenth century. The first multivolume collected edition was in the press before the original series had been concluded, and it soon appeared in luxury illustrated volumes, pocket formats, and schoolroom editions. This chapter charts the first hundred years of the Spectator’s life in print, focusing on complete editions produced in the British Isles. The account begins with the Tonsons’ bookselling dynasty, and their dominance of the London Spectator market for the first half of the century, taking in the first illustrations of the papers and the first scholarly edition. In Scotland and Ireland a parallel market flourished, and Scottish writers were responsible for landmark scholarly editions at the turn of the nineteenth century. The chapter is accompanied (in an Appendix) by a descriptive catalogue of complete editions of the Spectator from 1712 to 1812, accounting for 79 editions (over 600 volumes). The catalogue is a key resource for further study of The Spectator, its afterlives, and influence.

Netflix original series, global audiences and discourses of streaming success

This article examines the discourses of streaming success within the television industry by focusing on Netflix and two of the service’s original series: Fauda and La Casa de Papel. Using publicly available secondary data through 2019, this analysis argues the transnational platform’s efforts to redefine successful television while maintaining a high level of data secrecy necessitate the discursive construction of a global and undifferentiated audience. Yet, rather than representing a break with the past, the discourses of streaming success reveal Netflix to be a television institution attempting to address traditional industry challenges.

Product placement analysis in three Netflix original series

Advertising has encountered an obstacle with the proliferation of platforms like Netflix and this has sparked a boost in product placement. Through a content analysis, this exploratory study examines the use of product placement in three of Netflix’s original series, to understand how it behaves on this platform. The results indicate that it is a settled formula, but that the type of location or the number of marks is determined by the plot. Likewise, the fact that the audience is not restricted to a specific country seems to favor the presence of global brands.

Collective intelligence semiotics in the Stranger Things series

This study analyzes the Netflix’s original series, Stranger Things, as an emerging collective intelligence concept. For this purpose, we conducted a semiotic analysis through three inductive and interpretative stages: using the Transmedia Intertextual System, identifying pre-existing references, and analyzing reactions in the fandom universe. The research found the production as a transmedia intertextual masterpiece that points towards an emphasized canonization of the media-nostalgic content and a sequential performance of the collective cultural memory.

An Approach Inspired by Simulation Points to Accelerate Smart Cities Simulations

Approaches using simulations are of great value for smart cities research. However, city-scale simulators can be both processing and memory-intensive, and hard to scale. To speed up these simulations and to allow executing larger scenarios, this work presents an approach based on an technique named Simpoint to estimate the result of new simulations using previous simulations. This technique aims to identify and cluster recurring patterns during a simulation. Then, unique representatives of each cluster are selected and their simulation is used to estimate the simulation results of the remaining cluster elements. The experimental results for our estimates are promising.On a dataset with 16,993 time series, our technique was able to estimate the original series with an average error of 1.60979e-11 and standard deviation of 9.18228e-11.

Reading spaces

Following ‘the audiobook boom’ of recent years, born-audio narratives have emerged: texts produced specifi cally for the audiobook format and intended for mobile audio consumption. Focusing on this category of works, this article examines how the audiobook draws attention to places and situations in which we read, and how these places, in turn, infl uence the content and experience of literary works. Drawing on theories on mobile reading and listening by, for example, Michael Bull (2007), Lutz Koepnick (2013, 2019), and Iben Have and Birgitte Stougaard Pedersen (2015, 2020), I investigate the case of Storytel Originals, texts produced specifi cally for sound by the Swedish subscription service Storytel. Focusing first on the Danish Originals series Askehave (2019-2020) by Jakob Melander, I examine how Storytel promotes a situated reading experience for a mobile listener. Next, I move on to investigate what happens to the audiobook experience when the listener is not mobile: Cecilia Garme’s Original series Dagbok Från Coronabubblan (2020) describes everyday life during the corona crisis in spring 2020. Analysing the diary’s refl ections on the isolation at home and the listeners’ response to this text, I examine how the audiobook produces a social and intimate listening space. Based on these two examples, I point to two different tendencies in the content and usage of original audiobooks, one refl ecting how mobile listening promotes situated reading experiences in public and another focusing on the construction of social reading spaces at home.

Reflection of Orientalist Discourse on Netflix Turkey

This study focuses on the analysis of the orientalist structures in The Protector (2018-2020) which is the first original series of Netflix Turkey. The formation method of the image of the East through a popular culture product in a global digital broadcast program constituted the starting point of the study. New media platforms have also gained a place as the principal actor of orientalist fiction with the development of digital technology today. As a digital platform producing special contents for each country, Netflix interprets cultural values through exchanging and re-producing them. Accordingly, discourse analysis method was used in the study to discover how orientalism related patterns were inserted in Netflix contents. Formation of orientalist discourse was examined through character representation and time-space representation categories formed through considering theoretic information. As a result, it was observed that orientalism has also found a representation area for itself in media devices emerging with technology.