Prognostic Factors in Patients with an Implanted Pacemaker after 80 Years of Age in a 4-Year Follow-Up

Background: The controversy over electrotherapy for patients aged >80 years occurs already at the stage of qualification for this treatment type and concerns optimal device selection, the implantation strategy, and the overall benefit from pacemaker therapy. The group also has a considerable number of cardiovascular risk factors, and the data from the literature on the impact of the pacing mode on the remote prognosis of this group are ambiguous. Objective: Assessment of the risk factors for death among patients with implanted pacemakers >80 years of age in a 4-year follow-up. Methods: The study group consisted of 140 consecutive patients (79 women) aged 84.48 ± 3.65 years with single- or dual-chamber pacemakers implanted >80 years of age because of symptomatic bradycardia. In univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses, demographic, echocardiographic, and laboratory parameters, pharmacotherapy, and factors related to the implanted device - i.e., indications, pacemaker type, and the implantation position of the tip of the right ventricular lead - were included. The endpoint was death for any reason in a 4-year follow-up. Results: During follow-up, 68 patients (48.6%) died. Although atrial fibrillation with a slow ventricular response constituted 20% of the indications for implantation, 60.8% of the patients received a single-chamber system (VVI/VVIR). In the whole group, the multivariate Cox regression analysis showed both a favourable prognostic significance of DDD pacing system implantation (HR = 0.507; 95% CI: 0.294-0.876) and coexisting hypertension (HR = 0.520; 95% CI: 0.299-0.902). The risk factors were fasting glycaemia (HR = 1.180; 95% CI: 1.038-1.342) and, potentially, female sex (HR = 1.672; 95% CI: 0.988-2.830; p = 0.056). In the female subgroup a more favourable prognosis was related to the use of angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors (HR = 0.435; 95% CI: 0.202-0.933) and DDD pacemaker implantation (HR = 0.381; 95% CI: 0.180-0.806). In the male subgroup a more favourable prognosis was related to concerned patients with coexisting hypertension (HR = 0.349; 95% CI: 0.079-0.689). Conclusions: DDD mode pacing seems to serve as a factor which decreases mortality among patients aged >80 years in long-term follow-up. The potentially poorer prognosis for the female patients in this group may result from a combination of the dominant VVI pacing mode, potential propagation of atrial fibrillation, a low proportion of antithrombotic therapy, and sex-related predispositions to thromboembolic complications.

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Impact of Renin-Angiotensin-Aldosterone-System Inhibitor Drugs on Mortality in Patients with Atrial Fibrillation and Hypertension

10.21203/rs.3.rs-1188151/v1 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Wei Xu ◽

Yan-Min Yang ◽

Jun Zhu ◽

Shuang Wu ◽

Juan Wang ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Atrial Fibrillation ◽

Cox Regression ◽

Angiotensin Receptor Blockers ◽

Cardiovascular Death ◽

Renin Angiotensin Aldosterone System ◽

Cox Regression Analysis ◽

Renin Angiotensin ◽

The Impact ◽

Reduced Risk

Abstract Background Renin-angiotensin-aldosterone-system inhibitors markedly played an active role in the primary and secondary prevention of atrial fibrillation (AF), but the impact of angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors (ACEIs) or angiotensin receptor blockers (ARBs) on the mortality of patients with AF remains unclear. This study aimed to examine the relationship between treatment with ACEIs or ARBs and the mortality in emergency department (ED) patients with AF and hypertension. Methods This multicenter study enrolled 2016 ED patients from September 2008 to April 2011; Total 1110 patients with AF and hypertension were analyzed. Patients were grouped according to whether they were treated with ACEI/ARB or not and completed a 1-year follow-up to evaluate outcomes including all-cause death, cardiovascular death, stroke, and major adverse events (MAEs). Results Among the 1110 patients with AF and hypertension, 574 (51.7%) received ACEI/ARB treatment. During the 1-year follow-up, 169 all-cause deaths (15.2%) and 100 cardiovascular deaths (9.0%) occurred, while 98 strokes (8.8%) and 255 MAEs (23.0%) occurred. According to the multivariate Cox regression analysis, ACEI/ARB therapy was significantly associated with a reduced risk of all-cause death (HR, 0.642; 95% CI, 0.466–0.884; P = 0.007). Moreover, ACEI/ARB therapy was independently associated with a reduced risk of cardiovascular death (HR, 0.649; 95% CI, 0.424–0.993; P = 0.046) and MAEs (HR: 0.701, 95% CI 0.541–0.907, P = 0.007) after adjusting for other risk factors. Conclusions Our results revealed that ACEI/ARB therapy was independently associated with a reduced risk of all-cause death, cardiovascular death, and MAEs in ED patients with AF and hypertension. These results provide evidence for a tertiary preventive treatment for patients with atrial fibrillation and hypertension.

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A multicenter, prospective, observational study to determine association of mesangial C1q deposition with renal outcomes in IgA nephropathy

Scientific Reports ◽

10.1038/s41598-021-84715-7 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 11 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Li Tan ◽

Yi Tang ◽

Gaiqin Pei ◽

Zhengxia Zhong ◽

Jiaxing Tan ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Risk Factors ◽

Iga Nephropathy ◽

Cox Regression ◽

Renal Outcome ◽

Matched Cohort ◽

Negative Group ◽

Renal Survival ◽

Cox Regression Analysis ◽

Renal Outcomes

AbstractIt was reported that histopathologic lesions are risk factors for the progression of IgA Nephropathy (IgAN). The aim of this study was to investigate the relationships between mesangial deposition of C1q and renal outcomes in IgAN. 1071 patients with primary IgAN diagnosed by renal biopsy were enrolled in multiple study centers form January 2013 to January 2017. Patients were divided into two groups: C1q-positive and C1q-negative. Using a 1: 4 propensity score matching (PSM) method identifying age, gender, and treatment modality to minimize confounding factors, 580 matched (out of 926) C1q-negative patients were compared with 145 C1q-positive patients to evaluate severity of baseline clinicopathological features and renal outcome. Kaplan–Meier and Cox proportional hazards analyses were performed to determine whether mesangial C1q deposition is associated with renal outcomes in IgAN. During the follow-up period (41.89 ± 22.85 months), 54 (9.31%) patients in the C1q negative group and 23 (15.86%) patients in C1q positive group reached the endpoint (50% decline of eGFR and/or ESRD or death) respectively (p = 0.01) in the matched cohort. Significantly more patients in C1q negative group achieved complete or partial remission during the follow up period (P = 0.003) both before and after PSM. Three, 5 and 7-year renal survival rates in C1q-positive patients were significantly lower than C1q-negative patients in either unmatched cohort or matched cohort (all p < 0.05). Furthermore, multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that independent risk factors influencing renal survival included Scr, urinary protein, T1-T2 lesion and C1q deposition. Mesangial C1q deposition is a predictor of poor renal survival in IgA nephropathy.Trial registration TCTR, TCTR20140515001. Registered May 15, 2014, http://www.clinicaltrials.in.th/index.php?tp=regtrials&menu=trialsearch&smenu=fulltext&task=search&task2=view1&id=1074.

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Role of Disease Modifying Treatment in the Risk of Alloimmunization in Transfused Patients with Myelodysplastic Syndromes: A Population-Based Study

Blood ◽

10.1182/blood-2019-123357 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 134 (Supplement_1) ◽

pp. 4253-4253

Author(s):

Hanne Rozema ◽

Robby Kibbelaar ◽

Nic Veeger ◽

Mels Hoogendoorn ◽

Eric van Roon

Keyword(s):

Risk Factors ◽

Regression Analysis ◽

Cox Regression ◽

Population Based ◽

Incidence Rates ◽

Blood Products ◽

Cox Regression Analysis ◽

In The Beginning ◽

Observation Period

The majority of patients with myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS) require regular red blood cell (RBC) transfusions. Alloimmunization (AI) against blood products is an adverse event, causing time-consuming RBC compatibility testing. The reported incidence of AI in MDS patients varies greatly. Even though different studies on AI in MDS patients have been performed, there are still knowledge gaps. Current literature has not yet fully identified the risk factors and dynamics of AI in individual patients, nor has the influence of disease modifying treatment (DMT) been explored. Therefore, we performed this study to evaluate the effect of DMT on AI. An observational, population-based study, using the HemoBase registry, was performed including all newly diagnosed MDS patients between 2005 and 2017 in Friesland, a province of the Netherlands. All available information about treatment and transfusions, including transfusion dates, types, and treatment regimens, was collected from the electronic health records and laboratory systems. Follow-up occurred through March 2019. For our patient cohort, blood products were matched for AB0 and RhD, and transfused per the 'type and screen' policy (i.e. electronic matching of blood group phenotype between patient and donor). After a positive antibody screening, antibody identification and Rh/K phenotyping was performed and subsequent blood products were (cross)matched accordingly. The observation period was counted from first transfusion until last transfusion or first AI event. Univariate analyses and cumulative frequency distributions were performed to study possible risk factors and dynamics of AI. DMT was defined as hypomethylating agents, lenalidomide, chemotherapy and monoclonal antibodies. The effect of DMT as a temporary risk period on the risk of AI was estimated with incidence rates, relative risks (RR) and hazard ratios (HR) using a cox regression analysis. Follow-up was limited to 24 months for the cox regression analysis to avoid possible bias by survival differences. Statistical analyses were performed using IBM SPSS 24 and SAS 9.4. Out of 292 MDS patients, 236 patients received transfusions and were included in this study, covering 463 years of follow-up. AI occurred in 24 patients (10%). AI occurred mostly in the beginning of the observation period: Eighteen patients (75%) were alloimmunized after receiving 20 units of RBCs, whereas 22 patients (92%) showed AI after 45 units of RBCs (Figure 1). We found no significant risk factors for AI in MDS patients at baseline. DMT was given to 67 patients (28%) during the observation period. Patients on DMT received more RBC transfusions than patients that did not receive DMT (median of 33 (range: 3-154) and 11 (range: 0-322) RBC units respectively, p<0,001). Four AI events (6%) occurred in patients on DMT and 20 AI events (12%) occurred in patients not on DMT. Cox regression analysis of the first 24 months of follow-up showed an HR of 0.30 (95% CI: 0.07-1.31; p=0.11). The incidence rates per 100 person-years were 3.19 and 5.92 respectively. The corresponding RR was 0.54 (95% CI: 0.16-1.48; p=0.26). Based on our results, we conclude that the incidence of AI in an unselected, real world MDS population receiving RBC transfusions is 10% and predominantly occurred in the beginning of follow-up. Risk factors for AI at baseline could not be identified. Our data showed that patients on DMT received significantly more RBC transfusions but were less susceptible to AI. Therefore, extensive matching of blood products may not be necessary for patients on DMT. Larger studies are needed to confirm the protective effect of DMT on AI. Disclosures Rozema: Celgene: Other: Financial support for visiting MDS Foundation conference.

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P1885Cha2ds-2vasc score lacks of ability to predict mortality in patients attending the emergency department with atrial fibrillation in the presence of troponin i

European Heart Journal ◽

10.1093/eurheartj/ehz748.0633 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 40 (Supplement_1) ◽

Author(s):

M I Gonzalez Del Hoyo ◽

G Cediel ◽

A Carrasquer ◽

G Bonet ◽

K Vasquez-Nunez ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Heart Failure ◽

Atrial Fibrillation ◽

Emergency Department ◽

Regression Analysis ◽

Troponin I ◽

Cox Regression ◽

Cox Regression Analysis ◽

All Cause Mortality

Abstract Background CHA2DS2-VASc score has been used as a surrogate marker for predicting outcomes beyond thromboembolic risk in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). Likewise, cardiac troponin I (cTnI) is a predictor of mortality in AF. Purpose This study aimed to investigate the association of cTnI and CHA2DS2-VASc score with long-term prognosis in patients admitted to the emergency department with AF. Methods A retrospective cohort study conducted between January 2012 and December 2013, enrolling patients admitted to the emergency department with AF and having documented cTnI measurements. CHA2DS2-VASc score was estimated. Primary endpoint was 5-year all-cause mortality, readmission for heart failure (HF), readmission for myocardial infarction (MI) and the composite end point of major adverse cardiac events defined as death, readmission for HF or readmission for MI (MACE). Results A total of 578 patients with AF were studied, of whom 252 patients had elevated levels of cTnI (43.6%) and 334 patients had CHA2DS2-VASc score >3 (57.8%). Patients with elevated cTnI tended to be oldercompared with those who did not have cTnI elevation and were more frequently comorbid and of higher ischemic risk, including hypertension, prior MI, prior HF, chronic renal failure and peripheral artery disease. The overall median CHA2DS2-VASc score was higher in those with cTnI elevation compared to those patients elevated cTnI levels (4.2 vs 3.3 points, p<0.001). Main diagnoses at hospital discharge were tachyarrhythmia 30.3%, followed by heart failure 17.7%, respiratory infections 9.5% and acute coronary syndrome 7.3%. At 5-year follow-up, all-cause death was significantly higher for patients with cTnI elevation compared with those who did not have cTnI elevation (56.4% vs. 27%; logrank test p<0.001). Specifically, for readmissions for HF and readmissions for MI there were no differences in between patients with or without cTnI elevation. In addition, MACE was reached in 165 patients (65.5%) with cTnI elevation, compare to 126 patients (38.7%) without cTnI elevation (p<0.001). On multivariable Cox regression analysis, cTnI elevation was an independent predictor of all-cause death (hazard ratio, 1.67, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.24–2.26, p=0.001) and of MACE (hazard ratio 1.47, 95% confidence interval 1.15–1.88; P=0.002), but it did not reach statistical significance for readmissions for MI and readmissions for HF. CHA2DS2-VASc score was a predictor on univariate Cox regression analysis for each endpoint, but it did not reach significance on multivariable Cox regression analysis for any endpoint. Conclusions cTnI is independently associated with long-term all-cause mortality in patients attending the emergency department with AF. cTnI compared to CHA2DS2-VASc score is thus a biomarker with predictive capacity for mortality in late follow-up, conferring utility in the risk stratification of patients with atrial fibrillation.

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Predictive value of ankle–brachial index for long-term events of ischemic stroke in hemodialysis patients

Vascular ◽

10.1177/1708538120925954 ◽

2020 ◽

pp. 170853812092595

Author(s):

Kai-Ni Lee ◽

Li-Ping Chou ◽

Chi-Chu Liu ◽

Tsang-Shan Chen ◽

Eric Kim-Tai Lui ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Risk Factors ◽

Regression Analysis ◽

Ischemic Stroke ◽

Cox Regression ◽

Ankle Brachial Index ◽

Hemodialysis Patients ◽

Serum Phosphate ◽

Cox Regression Analysis

Objectives The ankle–brachial index is a noninvasive modality to evaluate atherosclerosis and is a predictive role for future cardiovascular events and mortality. However, few studies have evaluated its relation to long-term future ischemic stroke in hemodialysis patients. Therefore, we examined the relationship between ankle–brachial index and ischemic stroke events among hemodialysis patients in a seven-year follow-up. Methods A total of 84 patients were enrolled. Ankle–brachial index was assessed in January 2009. Primary outcomes included ischemic stroke. An ankle–brachial index < 0.9 was considered abnormal and 1.4 ≥ ankle–brachial index ≥ 0.9 to be normal ankle–brachial index. Results Mean values for ankle–brachial index were 0.98 ± 0.21at study entrance. In addition, 28 patients encountered ischemic stroke in the seven-year follow-up. In univariate Cox regression analysis, old age (hazard ratio (HR): 1.065, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.030–1.102, p < 0.001), low seven-year averaged serum phosphate levels (HR: 0.473, 95% CI: 0.306–0.730, p = 0.001), and abnormal ankle–brachial index (HR: 0.035, 95% CI: 0.009–0.145, p < 0.001) were risk factors for ischemic stroke. In multivariate Cox regression analysis for significant variables in univariate analysis, abnormal ankle–brachial index (HR: 0.058, 95% CI: 0.012–0.279, p < 0.001) and low seven-year averaged serum phosphate levels (HR: 0.625, 95% CI: 0.404–0.968, p = 0.035) remained the risk factors for ischemic stroke. The risk of ischemic stroke was 3.783-fold in patients with abnormal ankle–brachial index compared with patients with normal ankle–brachial index (HR: 3.783, 95% CI: 1.731–8.269, p = 0.001). Conclusions These findings suggest that ankle–brachial index is an impressive predictor of future ischemic stroke among hemodialysis patients.

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Impact of Metabolic Syndrome on the Development of Cardiovascular Disease among Kazakhs in Remote Rural Areas of Xinjiang, China: A Cohort Study

10.21203/rs.3.rs-34700/v1 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Wenwen Yang ◽

Shuxia Guo ◽

Haixia Wang ◽

Yu Li ◽

Xianghui Zhang ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Risk Factors ◽

Cardiovascular Disease ◽

Metabolic Syndrome ◽

Rural Areas ◽

Cox Regression ◽

Baseline Survey ◽

Minority Populations ◽

Cox Regression Analysis ◽

Independent Risk Factors

Abstract Background: Metabolic syndrome (MS) could promote the development of cardiovascular disease(CVD). The aim of this study was to examine the association of MS and its components with CVD among Kazakhs in Xinjiang. Methods: According to the geographical distribution of the minority populations in Xinjiang, we selected the representative prefecture (Yili). A total of 2,644 participants completed the baseline survey between April 2010 and December 2012. The follow-up survey was conducted from April 2016 to December 2016. Only 2,286 out of 2,644 participants were followed-up on, with a follow-up rate of 86.46%. Cox regression was used to evaluate the association of each component and the number of combinations of MS components on the development of CVD. Results: Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that blood pressure (BP), waist circumference (WC), and triglycerides (TG) were independently associated with CVD. Participants with 1–5 MS components had an increased hazard ratio for developing CVD, from 1.82 to 8.59 (trend P<0.001), compared with those without any MS components. This trend persisted after adjusting for other general risk factors. The risk of developing CVD increased when TG and WC coexisted, or when TG/WC and BP coexisted. However, no significant interactions were found between BP , WC , and TG. Conclusions: BP , WC, and TG were independent risk factors for CVD in Kazakhs. In clinical practice, a more informative assessment may be obtained by taking into account the number of MS components.

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Risk Factors for Atrial Fibrillation following a Cardiac Surgery

10.22541/au.163256940.04888608/v1 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Ibrahim Marai ◽

Wiaam Khatib ◽

Liza Grosman-Rimon ◽

Shemy Carasso ◽

Ali Sakhnini ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Risk Factors ◽

Atrial Fibrillation ◽

Cardiac Surgery ◽

Cox Regression ◽

Medical Center ◽

Clinical Impact ◽

Cox Regression Analysis ◽

History Of ◽

Vascular Accidents ◽

Preoperative Factors

Background: Atrial fibrillation (AF) following cardiac surgery is common and has clinical impact on morbidity. The preoperative and intraoperative risk factors are still not well defined. The objective of the study was to examine preoperative and intraoperative risk factors for AF following cardiac surgery. Methods: A retrospective analysis of a database of cardiac surgeries was performed during 2017-2019 at Poriya Medical Center. Preoperative factors and intraoperative were recorded. Results: 208 patients were included in this analysis. Overall AF following cardiac surgery was detected in 50 (24%) patients. Of 175 patients who did not have history of AF prior to surgery, 27 (15.5%) had post-operative AF. In the 33 patients with previous AF, AF following surgery was detected in 23 (70%). Patients with AF following surgery who were older (66.2±8.0 vs. 60.7± 11.4 years, p=0.002), were treated more with anti-arrhythmic drugs (18.9% vs 4.5, p<0.001), and had higher rates of pre-operative AF (46% vs 6.3%, p=0.0001), prior cerebral vascular accidents (14% vs 4.4%, p=0.019), and prior valve replacement (10% vs 1.9%, p=0.009) compared to patients without AF following surgery. In multivariate Cox regression analysis, age (HR 1.04, CI 1.01-1.07, P=0.006) and history of preoperative AF (HR 6.01, CI 3.42-10.57, P<0.001) were predictors of AF following cardiac surgery. The probability of being free of postsurgical AF was 80% among patients without history of AF compared to 30% in patients with previous AF history (p<0.001). Conclusion: Preoperative AF and age were predictors of AF following cardiac surgery

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Early and Midterm Outcome of TEVAR for Thoracic Aortic Pseudoaneurysm

10.21203/rs.3.rs-659146/v1 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Hui Wang ◽

Tun Wang ◽

Hao He ◽

Xin Li ◽

Yuan Peng ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Risk Factors ◽

Clinical Outcome ◽

Cardiac Disease ◽

Cox Regression ◽

Cox Regression Analysis ◽

Aortic Pseudoaneurysm ◽

Significant Difference ◽

Independent Risk Factors ◽

The Mean

Abstract Backgrounds: The prognosis of thoracic aortic pseudoaneurysm (TAP) after thoracic endovascular aortic repair (TEVAR) remains unclear. This study investigates the early and midterm clinical outcome as well as relevant risk factors of TAP patients following TEVAR therapy.Methods: From July 2010 to July 2020, 37 eligible TAP patients who underwent TEVAR were selected into our research. We retrospectively explored their baseline, perioperative and follow-up data. Fisher exact test and Kaplan-Meier method were applied for comparing difference between groups. Risk factors of late survival were discerned using Cox regression analysis.Results: There were 29 men and 12 women, with the mean age as 59.5±13.0 years (range, 30-82). The mean follow-up time was 30.7±28.3 months (range, 1-89). For early result, early mortality (≦30days) happened in 3(8.1%) zone 3 TAP patients versus 0 in zone 4 (p= 0.028); acute arterial embolism of lower extremity and type II endoleak respectively occurred in 1(2.7%) case. For midterm result, survival at 3 months, 1 year and 5 years was 88.8±5.3%, 75.9±7.5% and 68.3±9.9%, which showed significant difference between zone 2/3 versus zone 4 group (56.3±14.8% versus 72.9±13.2%, p= 0.013) and emergent versus elective TEVAR groups (0.0±0.0% versus 80.1±8.0%, p= 0.049). On multivariate Cox regression, lesions at zone 2/3 (HR 4.605, 95%CI 1.095-19.359), concomitant cardiac disease (HR 4.932, 95%CI 1.086-22.403) and emergent TEVAR (HR 4.196, 95%CI 1.042-16.891) were significant independent risk factors for worse late clinical outcome. Conclusions: TEVAR therapy is effective and safe with satisfactory early and midterm clinical outcome for TAP patients. Lesions at zone 2/3, concomitant cardiac disease and emergent TEVAR were independent risk factors for midterm survival outcome.

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Combination of CHARGE AF score and index of 24-hour electrocardiogram to predict incident atrial fibrillation and cardiovascular events

European Heart Journal ◽

10.1093/eurheartj/ehab724.0487 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 42 (Supplement_1) ◽

Author(s):

T Nishimura ◽

K Senoo ◽

I Hibiki ◽

T Okura ◽

T Miki ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Heart Failure ◽

Atrial Fibrillation ◽

Regression Analysis ◽

Roc Curve ◽

Cardiovascular Events ◽

Cox Regression ◽

Cox Regression Analysis ◽

Holter Ecg ◽

New Onset

Abstract Background Atrial fibrillation (AF) is associated with increased risks of stroke and heart failure. AF risk prediction can facilitate the efficient deployment of diagnosis or interventions to prevent AF. Purpose We sought to assess the combination prediction value of Holter electrocardiogram (Holter ECG) and the CHARGE-AF score (Cohorts for Aging and Research in Genomic Epidemiology-AF) for the new-onset of AF in a single center study. We also investigated the association between clinical findings and the new-onset of cerebral cardiovascular events. Methods From January 2008 and May 2014, 1246 patients with aged≥20 undergoing Holter ECG for palpitations, dizziness, or syncope were recruited. Among them, 350 patients were enrolled in this study after exclusion of 1) AF history at the time of inspection or before, 2) post cardiac device implantation, 3) follow-up duration <1 year, and 4) no 12-lead ECG records within 6 months around Holter ECG. Results During the 5.9-year follow-up, 40 patients (11.4%) developed AF incidence. Multivariate cox regression analysis revealed that CHARGE-AF score (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.59, 95% confidence interval (95% CI): 1.13–2.26, P<0.01), BMI (HR: 0.91, 95% CI: 0.83–0.99, P=0.03), frequent supraventricular extrasystoles (SVEs) ≥1000 beats/day (HR: 4.87, 95% CI: 2.59–9.13, P<0.001) and first-degree AV block (HR: 3.52, 95% CI: 1.63–7.61, P<0.01) were significant independent predictors for newly AF. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) of the combination of the CHARGE-AF score and frequent SVEs (≥1000) was greater than the CHARGE-AF score alone (0.73, 95% CI: 0.64–0.82 vs 0.66, 95% CI: 0.56–0.75, respectively). On the ROC curve, the CHARGE-AF score of 12.9 was optimum cut-off value for newly AF. Patients with both the CHARGE-AF score≥12.9 and SVEs≥1000 developed AF at 129.0/1000 person-years, compared with those with the CHARGE-AF score<12.9 and SVEs≥1000 (48.9), the CHARGE-AF score≥12.9 and SVEs<1000 (40.0) and the CHARGE-AF score<12.9 and SVEs<1000 (7.4), respectively. In multivariate cox regression analysis, age, past history of congestive heart failure and myocardial infarction, and antihypertensive medication were significant predictors of cerebral cardiovascular events (n=43), all of which signifying the components of the CHARGE-AF score. The AUC of the combination of the CHARGE-AF score and frequent SVEs (≥1000) was not different from the CHARGE-AF score alone (0.73, 95% CI: 0.64–0.81 vs 0.73, 95% CI: 0.64–0.82, respectively). Conclusion CHARGE-AF score has higher predictive power of both the new incident AF and cerebral cardiovascular events. The combination of CHARGE-AF score and SVEs≥1000 beats/day in Holter ECG can demonstrate the additional effect of prediction ability for the new incident AF, but not for cerebral cardiovascular events. FUNDunding Acknowledgement Type of funding sources: None.

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Clinical application of the novel 4S-AF scheme for the characterisation of patients with atrial fibrillation: a report from the ESC-EHRA EORP Atrial Fibrillation General Long-Term (AFGen LT) registry

European Heart Journal ◽

10.1093/eurheartj/ehab724.0440 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 42 (Supplement_1) ◽

Author(s):

W.Y Ding ◽

M Proietti ◽

G Boriani ◽

F Marin ◽

C Blomstrom-Lundqvist ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Risk Factors ◽

Atrial Fibrillation ◽

Left Atrial ◽

Thromboembolic Event ◽

Stroke Risk ◽

Cox Regression ◽

Cox Regression Analysis ◽

All Cause Mortality ◽

Atrial Enlargement

Abstract Background Current classification systems recommended by major international guidelines are based on a single domain of atrial fibrillation (AF): temporal pattern, symptom severity or underlying comorbidity. Lack of integration between these various elements limits our approach to patients with AF and acts as a barrier against the delivery of better holistic care. The 4S-AF classification scheme was recently introduced as a means for the characterisation of patients with AF. It comprises of 4 domains: stroke risk (St), symptoms (Sy), severity of AF burden (Sb) and substrate (Su). We sought to examine the implementation of the 4S-AF scheme in the EORP-AF General Long-Term Registry and effects of individual domains on outcomes in AF. Methods Patients with AF from 250 centres across 27 participating European countries were included. All patients were over 18 years old and had electrocardiographic confirmation of AF within 12 months prior to enrolment. Data on demographics and comorbidities were collected at baseline. Individual domains of the 4S-AF scheme were assessed using the CHA2DS2-VASc score (St), European Heart Rhythm Association classification (Sy), temporal classification of AF (Sb), and cardiovascular risk factors and the degree of left atrial enlargement (Su). Each of these domains were used during multivariable cox regression analysis. Results A total of 6321 patients were included in the present analysis, corresponding to 57.0% of the original cohort of 11096 patients. The median age of patients was 70 (interquartile range [IQR] 62–77) years with 2615 (41.4%) females. Among these patients, 528 (8.4%) had low stroke risk (St=0), 3002 (47.5%) no or mild symptoms (Sy=0), 2558 (40.5%) newly diagnosed or paroxysmal AF (Sb=0), and 322 (5.1%) no cardiovascular risk factors or left atrial enlargement (Su=0). Median follow-up was 24 months. Using multivariable cox regression analysis, independent predictors of all-cause mortality were (St) (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 8.21 [95% CI, 2.60–25.9]), (Sb) (aHR 1.21 [95% CI, 1.08–1.35]) and (Su) (aHR 1.27 [95% CI, 1.14–1.41]). For cardiovascular mortality and any thromboembolic event, only (Su) (aHR 1.73 [95% CI, 1.45–2.06]) and (Sy) (aHR 1.29 [95% CI, 1.00–1.66]) were statistically important, respectively. None of the domains were independently linked to ischaemic stroke or major bleeding. Conclusion Overall, we demonstrated that the 4S-AF scheme may be used to provide clinical characterisation of patients with AF using routinely collected data, and each of the domains within the 4S-AF scheme were independently associated with adverse long-term outcomes of all-cause mortality, cardiovascular mortality and/or any thromboembolic event. FUNDunding Acknowledgement Type of funding sources: None.

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