Financial Conditions Indexes and Monetary Policy in Asia

2017 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
pp. 83-117 ◽  
Author(s):  
Margarita Debuque-Gonzales ◽  
Maria Socorro Gochoco-Bautista
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Common Factor ◽  
The United States ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Output Growth ◽  
Monetary Transmission ◽  
Financial History ◽  
Monetary Policies ◽  
Financial Conditions ◽  
Advanced Economies

This paper constructs quarterly financial conditions indexes (FCIs) for eight Asian economies—namely, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand—using a common factor methodology based on Hatzius et al. ( 2010 ). A wide array of financial data is included in the indexes based on identified monetary transmission channels in the literature. Bank-related indicators, various measures of financial stress and risk, and credit surveys, where available, are incorporated to fully reflect the state of the financing environment. The FCIs for Asia successfully capture important episodes in each economy's financial history, but only the indexes of financially advanced economies Japan and Singapore have sufficient forecasting power to predict output growth and inflation. High co-movement of Asian FCIs suggests highly similar monetary policies in the region that are strongly linked with monetary policy in the United States.

scholarly journals Monetary Transmission Channel, Oil Price Shock and the Manufacturing Sector in Nigeria

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
pp. 89-113
Author(s):  
Adeleke Omolade ◽  
Philip Nwosa ◽  
Harold Ngalawa
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Manufacturing Sector ◽  
Output Growth ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Monetary Transmission ◽  
Oil Price Shock ◽  
Price Shock ◽  
The Exchange Rate

Abstract Research background: The need for diversification of the Nigerian economy has been emphasized and the manufacturing sector has a major role in this. Being an oil producing country, monetary policy is an important macroeconomic policy that has always been used to manage the influence of oil price shock on the manufacturing sector. Purpose: The study examines the relationship between oil price shock, the monetary transmission mechanism and manufacturing output growth in Nigeria. Research methodology: The study applied the structural vector auto regression (SVAR) modelling technique and a descriptive analysis. Results: The results of the study show that the exchange rate is mostly affected by the oil price shock, while the monetary policy instruments and inflation rate are also very responsive to the exchange rate shock. The manufacturing sector output growth has also been shown to be strongly affected by the inflation rate and monetary policy shocks. Novelty: The study has revealed the most effective channel via which oil price shocks affect manufacturing output. The exchange rate channel of the monetary policy transmission mechanism is the most significant channel through which oil price shock affects manufacturing output growth in Nigeria. This shows that effective management of the exchange rate policy via the appropriate monetary policy approach can be used to minimize the adverse effect of oil price shocks on Nigerian manufacturing output.

The relationship between financial development and effectiveness of monetary policy: new evidence from ASEAN-3 countries

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Zulkefly Abdul Karim ◽  
Danie Eirieswanty Kamal Basa ◽  
Bakri Abdul Karim
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Financial Development ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Financial System ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Output Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Relationship

Purpose This paper aims to investigate the relationship between financial development (FD) and monetary policy effectiveness (MPE) on output and inflation in ASEAN-3 countries (Singapore, Malaysia and the Philippines). Design/methodology/approach This study uses an open economy structural vector autoregressive model to generate MPE. Then, an autoregressive distributed lagged (ARDL) model is used to analyze the effect of FD on MPE across countries. Findings The findings revealed that FD plays a different role in MPE across countries. In Malaysia, a more developed financial system tends to reduce the MPE on output, whereas in Singapore, results show that the more developed financial system (stock market capitalization) tends to increase MPE on output. However, in the Philippines, the main results show that the effect of FD (liquid liabilities) upon MPE on output is depending on the policy variable (interest rates or money supply). Originality/value This paper fills this gap by providing the first study of ASEAN-3 countries in examining how effective is a monetary policy in response to the development of the financial market across the country. Second, this paper considers two FD indicators, namely, the banking sector and capital market development in investigating its effect on MPE on output and inflation. Third, the authors construct the MPE in each country using a structural (identified) VAR model by aggregating the response of output growth and inflation rate on monetary policy changes (interest rate and money supply) using impulse–response function. Regarding this, the results of this study provide new empirical evidence and insight into the long debate on the relationship between FD and the MPE.

scholarly journals A Natural Experiment in Monetary Policy Covering Three Episodes of Growth and Decline in the Economy and the Stock Market

2005 ◽  
Vol 19 (4) ◽  
pp. 145-150 ◽  
Author(s):  
Milton Friedman
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Natural Experiment ◽  
National Income ◽  
The United States ◽  
Monetary Policies ◽  
Rapid Economic Growth

The third of three episodes in a major natural experiment in monetary policy that started more than 80 years ago is just now coming to an end. The experiment consists in observing the effect on the economy and the stock market of the monetary policies followed during and after three very similar periods of rapid economic growth in response to rapid technological change: the booms of the 1920s in the United States, the 1980s in Japan and the 1990s in the United States. In this experiment, the quantity of money is the counterpart of the experimenter's input. The performance of the economy and the level of the stock market are the counterpart of the experimenter's output. The results of this natural experiment are clear, at least for major ups and downs: what happens to the quantity of money has a determinative effect on what happens to national income and to stock prices. The results strongly support Anna Schwartz's and my 1963 conjecture about the role of monetary policy in the Great Contraction. They also support the view that monetary policy deserves much credit for the mildness of the recession that followed the collapse of the U.S. boom in late 2000.

scholarly journals Juan de Mariana y la política monetaria estadounidense moderna: Salamanca, Cervantes, Jefferson y la Escuela Austriaca

2021 ◽  
pp. 67-103
Author(s):  
Eric Clifford Graf
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Early Republic ◽  
The United States ◽  
Central Banking ◽  
Jel Classification ◽  
Thomas Jefferson ◽  
Monetary Policies ◽  
Don Quijote ◽  
Palabras Clave ◽  
School Of Salamanca

Juan de Mariana may have had more direct lines of influence on the contemporary political denunciation of central banking in the United States than previously thought. As the culmination of a series of monetary theorists of the School of Salamanca, Mariana’s genius was his ability to synthesize and articulate a critique of the inflationary monetary policies of the Spanish Habsburgs. Furthermore, the Jesuit scholar linked his economic analysis to his equally scandalous endorsement of regicide. For their part, both the monetary policy concerns and the rebellious animus of the modern libertarian wing of American politics echo Thomas Jefferson’s views during the early Republic. These views also likely owe something to Juan de Mariana’s uniquely menacing confrontations with the Habsburgs. And thanks to the Virginian’s lifelong appreciation of Cervantes’s great novel Don Quijote, which was itself heavily influenced by Mariana, the fascinating connections between Jefferson’s and Mariana’s politicized understandings of money are even further intertwined. Key words: Monetary Policy, Mariana, Jefferson, Cervantes, Austrian School, School of Salamanca, Libertarianism, Liberty, Slavery, Regicide, Billon Coins. JEL Classification: B1, B2, B3, N1 y N4. Resumen: Juan de Mariana pudo haber tenido una influencia más directa sobre la elaboración de las críticas contemporáneas a la banca central en EE.UU. de lo que se ha pensado hasta ahora. Esta influencia puede encon-trarse en el punto culminante de la teoría monetaria de la Escuela de Sala-manca, cuando Mariana sintetizó y articuló una ingeniosa crítica de las políticas inflacionarias de los Habsburgo. En esa crítica, el erudito jesuita vinculó su análisis económico con la no menos escandalosa defensa del regicidio. Tanto las preocupaciones monetarias como el ánimo rebelde del ala libertaria de la derecha estadounidense se hacen asimismo eco de las opiniones expresadas por Thomas Jefferson durante los primeros años de la República. Y esas opiniones, probablemente, también deban algo a los amenazadores enfrentamientos que tuvo Juan de Mariana con los Habsbur-go. Y finalmente, gracias a la admiración que el político de Virginia sentía por El Quijote de Cervantes, texto que a su vez fue fuertemente influenciado por Mariana, se continúan entretejiendo las fascinantes conexiones entre las preocupaciones sobre las políticas monetarias expresadas por Jefferson y Mariana. Palabras clave: Política Monetaria, Mariana, Jefferson, Cervantes, Escuela Austriaca, Escuela de Salamanca, Libertarismo, Libertad, Esclavitud, Regicidio, Moneda de Vellón. Clasificación JEL: B1, B2, B3, N1 y N4.

scholarly journals OPTIMAL MONETARY AREAS AND MONETARY POLICY. AN ANALYSIS OVER WORLD POWER CENTERS

2019 ◽  
Vol 4 (special) ◽  
pp. 19-28
Author(s):  
Tudor Mugurel Aursulesei ◽  
Stefan Catalin Topliceanu
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
World Economy ◽  
The United States ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Monetary Policies ◽  
International Environment ◽  
The Us ◽  
Us Dollar ◽  
Power Centers ◽  
Global Influence

The phenomenon of power in international relations has always caused interest. The current international environment is extremely amplified and interconnected, and developments in recent decades have led to the foundation of a multipolar system. At present, the competition between power centers in the world economy is manifested at all levels of power, especially from an economic perspective. There is a clear desire for the Western European states that are members of the European Union and the BRICS to detach from their financial dependence on the US dollar and the United States financial instruments. We propose to analyze whether there are correlations between the monetary policies adopted by these entities and the characteristics of the optimal monetary areas. If monetary policy moves closer to the optimal monetary area specifications, then does that global influence increase?

Global Spillovers in a Low Interest Rate Environment

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sushant Acharya ◽  
Paolo Pesenti
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Policy Debate ◽  
Monetary Policies ◽  
International Spillovers ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
Financial Conditions ◽  
Global Demand ◽  
Low Interest Rates ◽  
Rate Environment

Global policy spillovers can be defined as the effect of policy changes in one country on economic outcomes in other countries. The literature has mainly focused on monetary policy interdependencies and has identified three channels through which policy spillovers can materialize. The first is the expenditure-shifting channel—a monetary expansion in one country depreciates its currency, making its goods cheaper relative to those in other countries and shifting global demand toward domestic tradable goods. The second is the expenditure-changing channel—expansionary monetary policy in one country raises both domestic and foreign expenditure. The third is the financial spillovers channel—expansionary monetary policy in one country eases financial conditions in other economies. The literature generally finds that the net transmission effect is positive but small. However, estimated spillovers vary widely across countries and over time. In the aftermath of the Great Recession, the policy debate has devoted special attention to the possibility that the magnitude and sign of international spillovers might have changed in an environment of low interest rates worldwide, as the expenditure-shifting channel becomes more relevant when the effective lower bound reduces the effectiveness of conventional monetary policies.

Quantitative easing in a monetary union

2019 ◽  
Vol 72 (1) ◽  
pp. 124-148 ◽  
Author(s):  
Francesco Saraceno ◽  
Roberto Tamborini
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Monetary Union ◽  
New Keynesian ◽  
Quantitative Easing ◽  
Monetary Policies ◽  
Risky Assets ◽  
Country Level ◽  
Asymmetric Shocks ◽  
Advanced Economies ◽  
Different Types

Abstract The long season of unconventional monetary policies in advanced economies seems to be coming to an end. How can quantitative easing (QE) be effective where conventional monetary policy fails? How does it work in the peculiar environment of a monetary union? We study this latter case modelling a monetary union as the aggregate of two countries characterized by New Keynesian output and inflation relationships, with a Tobinian money market equation. QE is operated by the single central bank by expanding money supply in exchange for risky assets throughout the union. We assess the stabilization capacity of QE under different types of symmetric and asymmetric shocks, in which case fiscal accommodation at the country level should also intervene.

2017 External Sector Report

Policy Papers ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 2017 (45) ◽  
Author(s):  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Current Account ◽  
Developing Economies ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
The United States ◽  
Relative Price ◽  
Advanced Economies ◽  
Current Account Imbalances ◽  
Global Growth ◽  
Account Imbalances

Global current account imbalances were broadly unchanged in 2016, with minor shifts adding to the reconfiguration under way since 2013. The fall in commodity prices, uneven cyclical recoveries in systemic economies, and differences in policy responses contributed to the rotation of imbalances. Current account surpluses of oil-exporting economies, as a group, shifted from large surpluses to small deficits, while deficits in emerging and developing economies narrowed markedly. At the same time, surpluses and deficits in key advanced economies widened. These trends were generally supported by real exchange rate movements. Overall excess current account imbalances (i.e., deficits or surpluses that deviate from desirable levels) represented about one-third of total global imbalances in 2016, remaining broadly unchanged since 2013, although increasingly concentrated in advanced economies. In particular, excess imbalances narrowed in emerging and developing economies, led by a smaller excess surplus in China and smaller excess deficits in others (Brazil, Indonesia, South Africa, Turkey). This narrowing, however, was accompanied by a widening of excess imbalances in some advanced economies. The persistence of large excess surpluses in several advanced economies (e.g. Germany, Korea, the Netherlands, Singapore, Sweden) remains a distinguishing feature of the constellation of imbalances, an issue that is explored in greater detail in this year’s report. Persistent global excess imbalances suggest that automatic adjustment mechanisms are weak. While the rotation of excess imbalances toward advanced economies—with deficits increasingly concentrated in the United States and United Kingdom—likely entails lower deficit-financing risks in the near term, the increased concentration of deficits in a few economies carries greater risks of disruptive trade policy actions. Diverging stock positions coupled with continued overreliance on demand from debtor countries could also pose risks to global growth and raise the likelihood of disruptive adjustments down the road. With nearly-closed output gaps in most systemic economies, addressing external imbalances in a growth-friendly fashion requires a recalibration of the policy mix in deficit and surplus economies alike. Excess deficit countries should move forward with fiscal consolidation, while gradually normalizing monetary policy in tandem with inflation developments. Excess surplus economies with fiscal space should reduce their reliance on easy monetary policy and allow for greater fiscal stimulus. Where monetary policy is constrained from playing a role, as in individual euro area members, fiscal and structural policies to facilitate relative price adjustments should take priority. Meanwhile, structural policies in excess surplus countries should focus on lifting distortions that constrain domestic demand or limit trade competition; while in excess deficit economies, policies should be directed to improving external competitiveness and overall saving. Protectionist and mercantilist policies should be avoided as they are detrimental to global growth.

China's Exchange Rate and Monetary Policies: Structural and Institutional Constraints and Reform Options

2008 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 31-49 ◽  
Author(s):  
Geng Xiao
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
The United States ◽  
Nominal Exchange Rate ◽  
Institutional Constraints ◽  
Institutional Barriers ◽  
Monetary Policies ◽  
Surplus Labor ◽  
Regulatory Systems ◽  
Advanced Economies ◽  
The One

This paper argues that declining transaction costs in exporting on the one hand and the structural and institutional barriers to importing and consumption on the other hand are the main causes for China's rising current account surplus. Reforms in China's planning, financial, and regulatory systems are more important than adjustment in nominal exchange rate for balancing China's trade and for China's surplus capital to hire more of its surplus labor. Although structural inflation and currency appreciation are necessary for China's price level to catch up step-by-step with those in the advanced economies, the pace of inflation and appreciation need to be compatible with China's underlying productivity growth. An “inflation first and appreciation second” approach would help China avoid the risks of both deflation and runaway inflation. The United States and China can have win–win results if both focus on the real constraints behind their external imbalances.

2015 Spillover Report

Policy Papers ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 2015 (43) ◽  
Author(s):  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Aggregate Demand ◽  
Output Growth ◽  
Structural Reforms ◽  
Demand And Supply ◽  
Potential Output ◽  
Advanced Economies ◽  
Potential Output Growth ◽  
Output Gaps ◽  
The Impact

Many countries around the globe, particularly the systemic advanced economies, face the challenge of closing output gaps and raising potential output growth. Addressing these challenges requires a package of macroeconomic, financial and structural policies that will boost both aggregate demand and aggregate supply, while closing the shortfall between demand and supply. Each element of this package is important and one cannot substitute for the other: easy monetary policy will not raise potential output just as structural reforms will not close the output gap. This report studies the impact on emerging markets and nonsystemic advanced economies from monetary policy actions in systemic advanced economies, with a look also at knock-on effects from the decline in world oil prices.

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