Rethinking “Economic Fundamentals” in an Era of Global Physical Shocks: Insights from the Philippine Experience with COVID-19

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-45
Author(s):  
Toby Melissa C. Monsod ◽  
Maria Socorro Gochoco-Bautista
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Economic Outcomes ◽  
System Capacity ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Economic Fundamentals ◽  
Laboratory Capacity ◽  
The Difference ◽  
The Stability ◽  
Stability And Resilience

Having “strong macroeconomic fundamentals”, as the Philippines supposedly did pre-COVID-19, matters much less (if at all), in and of itself, to economic outcomes in the context of a physical shock. Using a model for 21 countries in ASEAN + 3, developing East Asia and South Asia as well as Australia and New Zealand to explain the difference in actual 2019 and forecasted 2020 GDP growth, we find that, ceteris paribus, stronger national capacities to detect and respond to emerging outbreaks, in particular, laboratory capacity, are associated with better short term economic outcomes. For the Philippines, up to 3.6 percentage points in lost GDP growth forecasted in 2020 could have been saved. Our results suggest that a dearth in health system capacity should be prioritized over and above any other type of spending, including traditional stimulus (e.g. large-scale infrastructure) spending. Our results also underscore the need to rethink what is necessary for the stability and resilience of an economy – what are the “economic fundamentals” - in an era of global physical shocks, including those brought about by climate hazards. Given physical shocks, efficient and prepared government institutions matter. A macro economy is not resilient if these are not.

scholarly journals Forward Guidance during the Pandemic: Has It Changed the Public’s Expectations?

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-7
Author(s):  
Wesley Janson ◽  
Chengcheng Jia
Keyword(s):  
Federal Reserve ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Federal Funds ◽  
Federal Funds Rate ◽  
The Public ◽  
Economic Fundamentals ◽  
Forward Guidance ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Future Policy

In responding to the COVID-19 crisis, the Federal Reserve has both lowered the federal funds rate and provided forward guidance. We study whether the forward guidance given with the April and June 2020 FOMC meetings altered the public’s expectations of future policy rates, GDP growth, and inflation. We find that forward guidance was effective in altering the public’s expectations about future policy rates if it was accompanied by an SEP but not expectations about economic fundamentals. We suggest that the difference might be explained by FOMC statements being interpretable in two different ways and the public not having a dominant view on which interpretation was intended.

COMPARING BITMAPPED MICRORNA STRUCTURE IMAGES USING MUTUAL SYMMETRY

2013 ◽  
Vol 13 (03) ◽  
pp. 1350008
Author(s):  
ARJAN KUIJPER ◽  
ILKKA HAVUKKALA
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Molecular Structures ◽  
Dimensional Structure ◽  
Binary Matrix ◽  
Automatic Clustering ◽  
High Throughput Method ◽  
Structure Databases ◽  
The Difference ◽  
The Stability

We present a high-throughput method for analyzing large-scale bitmapped bio-data: processing of elongated molecular structures by 2D images and analyzing their shapes for chemoinformatics databases. Two-dimensional structure databases are transfered to bitmap images — a commonly used visualization widely spread online. Then, an efficient clustering of the molecular structures is achieved by a mutual symmetry-based binary matrix representation of the shapes. We present a method to compute the difference between two of such representations and evaluate its performance with respect to time and quality of matching. In our tests we use two bitmap databases, one containing true human microRNA folded 2D structures and one with claimed human microRNA folded 2D structures. We show the stability of the matching with respect to parameterization and orientation of the shapes. Our method enables a good automatic clustering of structures with high visual similarity.

Relationship between total plasma homocysteine and the risk of aneurysms – a meta-analysis

VASA ◽  
2020 ◽  
pp. 1-6
Author(s):  
Hanji Zhang ◽  
Dexin Yin ◽  
Yue Zhao ◽  
Yezhou Li ◽  
Dejiang Yao ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Meta Analysis ◽  
Single Species ◽  
Total Plasma ◽  
Control Groups ◽  
Randomized Controlled ◽  
Randomized Controlled Studies ◽  
The Difference ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Healthy Participants

Summary: Our meta-analysis focused on the relationship between homocysteine (Hcy) level and the incidence of aneurysms and looked at the relationship between smoking, hypertension and aneurysms. A systematic literature search of Pubmed, Web of Science, and Embase databases (up to March 31, 2020) resulted in the identification of 19 studies, including 2,629 aneurysm patients and 6,497 healthy participants. Combined analysis of the included studies showed that number of smoking, hypertension and hyperhomocysteinemia (HHcy) in aneurysm patients was higher than that in the control groups, and the total plasma Hcy level in aneurysm patients was also higher. These findings suggest that smoking, hypertension and HHcy may be risk factors for the development and progression of aneurysms. Although the heterogeneity of meta-analysis was significant, it was found that the heterogeneity might come from the difference between race and disease species through subgroup analysis. Large-scale randomized controlled studies of single species and single disease species are needed in the future to supplement the accuracy of the results.

Use of a Lyophilized Reference Plasma to Compare Coagulation Test Procedures

1975 ◽  
Vol 34 (02) ◽  
pp. 426-444 ◽  
Author(s):  
J Kahan ◽  
I Nohén
Keyword(s):  
Oral Anticoagulant Therapy ◽  
Repeated Measurements ◽  
Test Procedures ◽  
Coagulation Activity ◽  
Close Relationship ◽  
Measured Activity ◽  
Test Materials ◽  
The Difference ◽  
The Stability ◽  
The One

SummaryIn 4 collaborative trials, involving a varying number of hospital laboratories in the Stockholm area, the coagulation activity of different test materials was estimated with the one-stage prothrombin tests routinely used in the laboratories, viz. Normotest, Simplastin-A and Thrombotest. The test materials included different batches of a lyophilized reference plasma, deep-frozen specimens of diluted and undiluted normal plasmas, and fresh and deep-frozen specimens from patients on long-term oral anticoagulant therapy.Although a close relationship was found between different methods, Simplastin-A gave consistently lower values than Normotest, the difference being proportional to the estimated activity. The discrepancy was of about the same magnitude on all the test materials, and was probably due to a divergence between the manufacturers’ procedures used to set “normal percentage activity”, as well as to a varying ratio of measured activity to plasma concentration. The extent of discrepancy may vary with the batch-to-batch variation of thromboplastin reagents.The close agreement between results obtained on different test materials suggests that the investigated reference plasma could be used to calibrate the examined thromboplastin reagents, and to compare the degree of hypocoagulability estimated by the examined PIVKA-insensitive thromboplastin reagents.The assigned coagulation activity of different batches of the reference plasma agreed closely with experimentally obtained values. The stability of supplied batches was satisfactory as judged from the reproducibility of repeated measurements. The variability of test procedures was approximately the same on different test materials.

NPLs — The Solution Recipe for Albania

2015 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 48
Author(s):  
Elona Shehu ◽  
Elona Meka
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Banking System ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
System A ◽  
Analysis Technique ◽  
Recent Financial Crisis ◽  
The Stability ◽  
Asset Quality ◽  
Macroeconomic Determinants

The quality of the loan portfolio in Albanian banking system is facing many obstacles during the last decade. In this paper we look at possible determinants of assets quality. During the recent financial crisis commercial banks were confronted with deteriorating asset quality that threatened not only the banking industry, but also the stability of the entire financial system. This study aims to examine the correlation between non-performing loans and the macroeconomic determinants in Albania during the last decade. NPLs are considered to be of a high importance as they represent the high risk exposure of banking system. A solid bank with healthy assets increases the market efficiency. Our approach is based on a panel data regression analysis technique from 2005-2015. Within this methodology this study finds robust evidence on the existing relationship between lending interest rate, real GDP growth and NPLs. We expect to find a negative relationship between lending interest rate and asset quality. Further we assume an inverse relationship between GDP growth and non-performing loans, suggesting that NPLs decrease if the economy is growing. Furthermore this study proposes a solution platform, which looks deeper into the possibility of creating a secondary active market for troubled loans, restructuring the banking system or implementing the Podgorica model. This research paper opens a new lieu of discussion in terms of academic debates and decision-making policies.

TO THE PROBLEMS OF COMBATING CORRUPTION IN MODERN RUSSIA AND INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION IN THE FIELD OF ANTI-CORRUPTION

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Angela Dranishnikova
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
The State ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Modern Life ◽  
Existing Problems ◽  
Moral Point ◽  
Material Goods ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
The Difference ◽  
The Government

In the article, the author reflects the existing problems of the fight against corruption in the Russian Federation. He focuses on the opacity of the work of state bodies, leading to an increase in bribery and corruption. The topic we have chosen is socially exciting in our days, since its significance is growing on a large scale at all levels of the investigated aspect of our modern life. Democratic institutions are being jeopardized, the difference in the position of social strata of society in society’s access to material goods is growing, and the state of society is suffering from the moral point of view, citizens are losing confidence in the government, and in the top officials of the state.

In the stability of paints and varnishes for protective and decorative wood finish

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ю.И. Цой
Keyword(s):  
Organic Solvents ◽  
Evaluation Criteria ◽  
Ternary Systems ◽  
Solubility Parameters ◽  
Formaldehyde Resin ◽  
Film Forming ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Molecular Forces ◽  
The Stability ◽  
Thermodynamic Interaction

Задача получения однородного состава ЛКМ сводится к правильному выбору пленкообразователей и соответствующих растворителей и, в случае необходимости, разбавителей и добавок. На основе положений теории растворимости была проведена оценка совместимости компонентов и стабильности таких систем. Критериями оценки были приняты параметры растворимости и термодинамического взаимодействия. Исследовали совместимость алкидных лаков с аминоформальдегидными смолами в бутаноле, и результаты этих исследований представлены в треугольной фазовой диаграмме. Для оценки совместимости смол по результатам расчета параметров термодинамического взаимодействия были построены спинодали для тройных систем. Как показывает анализ результатов проведенных исследований, даже при большой разности ?? = |?12 – ?13| = 0,2 наблюдается небольшая область несовместимости. С уменьшением разности ?? область несовместимости сужается. При ?23 > ?с область несовместимости расширяется как для ? = 0,2, так и для ?? = 0,1 и ?? = 0. Таким образом, для таких систем на совместимость компонентов, в первую очередь, влияет их взаимодействие между собой – чем оно больше, тем лучше они совместимы. Проведенные исследования показали, что парциальные параметры растворимости, учитывающие природу когезионных сил, более объективно характеризуют растворимость пленкообразующих смол в органических растворителях, чем их общий параметр растворимости. Растворимость пленкообразующих алкидных и этерифицированных аминоформальдегидных смол в органических растворителях обусловлена термодинамическим взаимодействием молекулярных сил различной природы. Стабильность смеси алкидной и этерифицированной аминоформальдегидной смолы в бутаноле обусловлена в большей степени термодинамическим взаимодействием молекулярных сил; при этом степень бутанолизации меламиноформальдегидной смолы оказывает наибольшее влияние на стабильность cистемы. Проведенные исследования по стабильности лакокрасочных смесей из различных пленкообразующих смол на основе рассмотренных критериев оценки могут быть использованы для совершенствования технологии защитно-декоративной отделки древесины. The problem of obtaining a homogeneous composition of the coatings is reduced to the proper selection of film-forming agents, and diluent and, if appropriate, diluents and additives. On the basis of the theory of solubility, we have carried out the assessment of the compatibility of the components and stability of such systems. The evaluation criteria were adopted the parameters of the solubility and thermodynamic interaction. Researched the compatibility with alkyd varnishes aminoformaldehyde resin in butanol, and the results of these studies are presented in the triangular phase diagram. To evaluate the compatibility of the resins according to the results of calculation of thermodynamic parameters of interaction were built spinodal for ternary systems. As the analysis of the results of the studies, even when the difference ??|?12 – ?13| = 0,2 there is a small area of incompatibility. With the decrease of the difference ? ? region incompatibility narrows. When ?23> ?с region incompatibility extends to ?? = 0,2, and for ?? = 0.1 and ?? = 0. Thus, for such systems, compatibility of components, primarily, affects their interaction with each other – the further away it is, the better they are compatible. Studies have shown that the partial solubility parameters, which take into account the nature of cohesive forces, more objectively characterize the solubility of film-forming resins in organic solvents than their total solubility parameter. The solubility and film-forming aminoformaldehyde esterified alkyd resins in organic solvents due to thermodynamic interaction of molecular forces of different nature. Тhe stability of the mixture and aminoformaldehyde esterified alkyd resin in butanol is generated largely by thermodynamic forces of molecular interaction; the degree of butanolate melamine-formaldehyde resin has the greatest effect on the stability of the system. Conducted research on the stability of the paint mixtures of various film-forming resins on the basis of the evaluation criteria can be used to improve the technology of protective and decorative wood finish.

Stability and mutual impact of perception of parental pressure and infants' social support – A study based on the difference between employment status and household income

2021 ◽  
pp. 002072092199705
Author(s):  
Yong Wang
Keyword(s):  
Household Income ◽  
Employment Status ◽  
Working Mothers ◽  
Social Research ◽  
Research Report ◽  
Parental Pressure ◽  
Income Levels ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
The Difference ◽  
The Stability

The purpose of this study is to explore the stability and interaction between parental pressure and social research report, as well as the role of employment status and family income levels in this process. This study used a special study on Korean children (PSKC) 2–4 waves. Use t-test, correlation and autoregressive cross-delay modeling to analyze the data. The main findings of this study are: First, over time, parental pressure and mother’s social research report are consistent. Secondly, the pressure of motherhood and childcare has an obvious lagging effect on upbringing, and vice versa. Third, there is no significant difference between working mothers and non-working mothers in terms of the stability of working parents' pressure, social research report and social research report for children's pressure channels. However, parental pressure can only predict the social research report of working mothers. Fourth, there is no significant difference between the stability and interaction of these two structures in household income levels. In short, the results show that, over time, parental pressure is consistent with mother’s social research report. The results also show that there is a significant cross-lag effect between the mothers’ perceptions of mutual pressure analysis. In the process from parental pressure to social research report, I found the difference between working and non-working mothers. The advantage of this study is that the expected longitudinal design was adopted during infancy and the priority between the two structures can be considered. The results of this study can be used as a source of intervention plans to help parents withstand severe parenting pressure and lack of social research report.

scholarly journals Large-Scale Analysis of the Spatiotemporal Changes of Net Ecosystem Production in Hindu Kush Himalayan Region

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (6) ◽  
pp. 1180
Author(s):  
Da Guo ◽  
Xiaoning Song ◽  
Ronghai Hu ◽  
Xinming Zhu ◽  
Yazhen Jiang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Net Primary Production ◽  
Carbon Sink ◽  
Carbon Sources ◽  
Spatial Dynamics ◽  
Tibet Plateau ◽  
Geostatistical Model ◽  
Hindu Kush ◽  
Temporal And Spatial ◽  
The Difference

The Hindu Kush Himalayan (HKH) region is one of the most ecologically vulnerable regions in the world. Several studies have been conducted on the dynamic changes of grassland in the HKH region, but few have considered grassland net ecosystem productivity (NEP). In this study, we quantitatively analyzed the temporal and spatial changes of NEP magnitude and the influence of climate factors on the HKH region from 2001 to 2018. The NEP magnitude was obtained by calculating the difference between the net primary production (NPP) estimated by the Carnegie–Ames Stanford Approach (CASA) model and the heterotrophic respiration (Rh) estimated by the geostatistical model. The results showed that the grassland ecosystem in the HKH region exhibited weak net carbon uptake with NEP values of 42.03 gC∙m−2∙yr−1, and the total net carbon sequestration was 0.077 Pg C. The distribution of NEP gradually increased from west to east, and in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau, it gradually increased from northwest to southeast. The grassland carbon sources and sinks differed at different altitudes. The grassland was a carbon sink at 3000–5000 m, while grasslands below 3000 m and above 5000 m were carbon sources. Grassland NEP exhibited the strongest correlation with precipitation, and it had a lagging effect on precipitation. The correlation between NEP and the precipitation of the previous year was stronger than that of the current year. NEP was negatively correlated with temperature but not with solar radiation. The study of the temporal and spatial dynamics of NEP in the HKH region can provide a theoretical basis to help herders balance grazing and forage.

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