Jordan and Syrian Refugees: Avoiding the Worst Case Scenario

2015 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 319-335
Author(s):  
Doris Carrion
Keyword(s):  
International Development ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Refugee Crisis ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Current Trends ◽  
Political Effect ◽  
Development Support ◽  
Perceived Impact ◽  
Competition For Resources

Civil war in Syria has provoked a major refugee crisis in neighbouring Jordan, raising the latter’s population by 8 per cent. For Jordanians, the highly visible presence of many thousands of refugees living in their midst – mostly in urban areas, rather than camps – raises fears over competition for resources and opportunities. Host communities have partly benefited from the presence of refugees, but many Jordanians feel they are worse off because of the Syrians. The refugee crisis has hit the most vulnerable people in their country hardest. Local inhabitants feel increasingly disenfranchised and neglected by both their government and international donors due to a real and perceived impact on rents, prices, public services and public order. If current trends continue, resentment and alienation in the northern governorates are likely to increase in the coming years. Local discontent may subside if Syrians are given more opportunities to earn a living legally, which would mean that Jordan would benefit more from their presence. In order to minimize a negative political effect, a more open livelihood policy should be accompanied by a significant increase in international development support for host communities. It does not look like refugees will be able to return to Syria any time soon, no matter how hard life in Jordan becomes. Jordan and the international community should take the difficult but necessary steps to prevent the crisis from making life even worse for the country’s most vulnerable residents.

Slavery in Brazil: A Case Study of Diamantina, Minas Gerais

1988 ◽  
Vol 45 (1) ◽  
pp. 47-59 ◽  
Author(s):  
Donald Ramos
Keyword(s):  
Urban Areas ◽  
Living Conditions ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Men And Women ◽  
Mortality And Morbidity ◽  
Diamond Mining ◽  
Large Numbers ◽  
Special Case

The study of slave mortality and morbidity in Brazil has been very difficult because of the extreme paucity of sources. Techniques which have been useful in studying the lives of free men and women seldom are useful for analyzing their slaves. The use of parish records such as baptism and death registers is not possible because of the custom of listing only the slave's first name and the unimaginative choice of names which resulted in large numbers of Joãos, Josés, Manuels, Antônios, Antonias, Joanas, and, of course, Marias. Equally important, the types of plantation records available to students of U.S. slavery have seldom been found for Brazil.This essay is an examination of an isolated slave register, which, for a series of idiosyncratic reasons, provides information permitting a glimpse at mortality and morbidity in a distinct and carefully controlled slave population. Because the slaves involved were used in diamond mining under horrendous conditions it is probable that the conclusions reached in this essay represent a worst case scenario. Rather than typical, this is a special case where work and living conditions were probably worse than in plantation zones and certainly worse than in urban areas. It is this situation which makes the conclusions of this essay quite startling.

scholarly journals Noise Impact Assessment of Thermal Plant Facilities on Receptor Environments

2019 ◽  
Vol 2 (Issue 1) ◽  
Author(s):  
O.A Olu-Arotiowa ◽  
J.A Adeniran ◽  
R.O Yusuf ◽  
M.O Abdulraheem ◽  
A.S Aremu
Keyword(s):  
Power Generation ◽  
Power Plant ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Interpolation Method ◽  
Kriging Interpolation ◽  
Noise Levels ◽  
Noise Emission ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Kriging Interpolation Method

Noise pollution is considered as a serious environmental nuisance in the urban areas. This study has used the VDI code 2714 to investigate the impacts of the noise from all the power generation and ancilliary facilities in the proposed Independent Power Plant, Agbara, Ogun State receptor environment. Kriging interpolation method in SurferR 8.0 software to predict noise emission levels within the fence line of the proposed Independent Power Plant. Calculations of possible noise levels at some receptors locations around the plant were carried out using the VDI code 2714. Four operation scenarios were considered in this study. The scenarios considered include: Noise emission from power generation facilities only (Scenario 1); Noise from the use of Compressors and Transformers (Scenario 2); Noise emission from the operation of power generation and ancillary equipment (Scenario 3); and Noise emission from the use of Backup Generators (Scenario 4). The maximum noise from the four scenarios were 112.34, 114.58, 116.61 and 110.01 dB(A), respectively, which is above the 8-hour 90 dB(A) limit recommended by the Federal Ministry of Environment (FMEnv). The operation of the proposed power plant will not have significant impact on the receptor environments except for Karogbaji which receives less than 12 dB(A) for the worst-case scenario (Scenario 3). The modeling results show that the predicted noise levels generated by the proposed operation would generally be within the established noise criteria at all the receptor locations under all conditions.

scholarly journals Climate Change, Migration, and Civil Strife

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 404-414
Author(s):  
Satchit Balsari ◽  
Caleb Dresser ◽  
Jennifer Leaning
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
World War Ii ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Adaptation Strategy ◽  
Human Migration ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Civil Strife ◽  
Changing Climate

Abstract Purpose of Review In this article, we examine the intersection of human migration and climate change. Growing evidence that changing environmental and climate conditions are triggers for displacement, whether voluntary or forced, adds a powerful argument for profound anticipatory engagement. Recent Findings Climate change is expected to displace vast populations from rural to urban areas, and when life in the urban centers becomes untenable, many will continue their onward migration elsewhere (Wennersten and Robbins 2017; Rigaud et al. 2018). It is now accepted that the changing climate will be a threat multiplier, will exacerbate the need or decision to migrate, and will disproportionately affect large already vulnerable sections of humanity. Worst-case scenario models that assume business-as-usual approaches to climate change predict that nearly one-third of the global population will live in extremely hot (uninhabitable) climates, currently found in less than 1% of the earth’s surface mainly in the Sahara. Summary We find that the post–World War II regime designed to receive European migrants has failed to address population movement in the latter half of the twentieth century fueled by economic want, globalization, opening (and then closing) borders, civil strife, and war. Key stakeholders are in favor of using existing instruments to support a series of local, regional, and international arrangements to protect environmental migrants, most of whom will not cross international borders. The proposal for a dedicated UN agency and a new Convention has largely come from academia and NGOs. Migration is now recognized not only as a consequence of instability but as an adaptation strategy to the changing climate. Migration must be anticipated as a certainty, and thereby planned for and supported.

scholarly journals Global 1-km present and future hourly anthropogenic heat flux

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Alvin Christopher Galang Varquez ◽  
Shota Kiyomoto ◽  
Do Ngoc Khanh ◽  
Manabu Kanda
Keyword(s):  
Urban Areas ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Population Distribution ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Heat Emission ◽  
Anthropogenic Heat ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Anthropogenic Heat Flux

AbstractNumerical weather prediction models are progressively used to downscale future climate in cities at increasing spatial resolutions. Boundary conditions representing rapidly growing urban areas are imperative to more plausible future predictions. In this work, 1-km global anthropogenic heat emission (AHE) datasets of the present and future are constructed. To improve present AHE maps, 30 arc-second VIIRS satellite imagery outputs such as nighttime lights and night-fires were incorporated along with the LandScanTM population dataset. A futuristic scenario of AHE was also developed while considering pathways of radiative forcing (i.e. representative concentration pathways), pathways of social conditions (i.e. shared socio-economic pathways), a 1-km future urbanization probability map, and a model to estimate changes in population distribution. The new dataset highlights two distinct features; (1) a more spatially-heterogeneous representation of AHE is captured compared with other recent datasets, and (2) consideration of future urban sprawls and climate change in futuristic AHE maps. Significant increases in projected AHE for multiple cities under a worst-case scenario strengthen the need for further assessment of futuristic AHE.

scholarly journals Disproportionate Collapse Mitigation in Tall Mass Timber Buildings

2019 ◽  
pp. 413-420
Author(s):  
Hossein Daneshvar ◽  
Ying Hei Chui
Keyword(s):  
Urban Areas ◽  
Structural Integrity ◽  
Tall Buildings ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Unique Type ◽  
Structural Robustness ◽  
Concrete Members ◽  
Disproportionate Collapse ◽  
Mass Timber

Tall buildings are a unique type of structure with their own characteristic behaviour. They are most often occupied by a large number of people; therefore, their damage, loss of functionality, or, in worst case scenario, collapse will lead to catastrophic consequences. There are methodologies intended to provide structural integrity or increase structural robustness in tall buildings, thereby making structures resistant to disproportionate collapse, which is characterized by a cascading progression of damage that is not proportionate to the initial failure. Tall buildings are commonly constructed with steel and concrete. As a result, most of the attempts at providing structural integrity are dedicated to mitigating the effect of disproportionate collapse in the steel and concrete members, connections, and their systems. On the other hand, with rising demand for new sustainable buildings in urban areas, tall mass timber buildings have attracted increased attention nationally and internationally. Ease of modularization and offsite construction is one of the greatest advantages of using mass timber in tall building construction in the congested urban areas of major cities. A major challenge facing the engineering community is the lack of research studies regarding the structural robustness required to mitigate the potential of disproportionate collapse. The current study seeks to begin the process of understanding the behaviour of mass timber components and assemblages, and make recommendations regarding their performance and possible means to mitigate the occurrence of disproportionate collapse. These recommendations would lead to safer structural performance in the event of localized damage that has the potential to spread to a disproportionately large part of the structure.

scholarly journals Feasibility Study of a Building-Integrated PV Manager to Power a Last-Mile Electric Vehicle Sharing System

2017 ◽  
Vol 2017 ◽  
pp. 1-12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Manuel Fuentes ◽  
Jesús Fraile-Ardanuy ◽  
José L. Risco-Martín ◽  
José M. Moya
Keyword(s):  
Public Transportation ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Positive Energy ◽  
Energy Storage Devices ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Total Energy Consumption ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Last Mile ◽  
Mobility System ◽  
Electric Bicycle

Transportation is one of the largest single sources of air pollution in urban areas. This paper analyzes a model of solar-powered vehicle sharing system using building-integrated photovoltaics (BIPV), resulting in a zero-emission and zero-energy mobility system for last-mile employee transportation. As a case study, an electric bicycle sharing system between a public transportation hub and a work center is modeled mathematically and optimized in order to minimize the number of pickup trips to satisfy the demand, while minimizing the total energy consumption of the system. The whole mobility system is fully powered with BIPV-generated energy. Results show a positive energy balance in e-bike batteries and pickup vehicle batteries in the worst day of the year regarding solar radiation. Even in this worst-case scenario, we achieve reuse rates of 3.8 people per bike, using actual data. The proposed system manages PV energy using only the batteries from the electric vehicles, without requiring supportive energy storage devices. Energy requirements and PV generation have been analyzed in detail to ensure the feasibility of this approach.

Reducing Probabilistic Weather Forecasts to the Worst Case Scenario: Anchoring Effects

2008 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sonia Savelli ◽  
Susan Joslyn ◽  
Limor Nadav-Greenberg ◽  
Queena Chen
Keyword(s):  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Weather Forecasts ◽  
Worst Case Scenario ◽  
Anchoring Effects

EXPEDITION TO MALI, 2020

2020 ◽  
pp. 12-28
Author(s):  
D. V. Vaniukova ◽  
◽  
P. A. Kutsenkov ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Mass Murder ◽  
The State ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Traditional Art ◽  
Peter The Great ◽  
State Museum ◽  
Bobo Dioulasso ◽  
Oriental Studies ◽  
The Village

The research expedition of the Institute of Oriental studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences has been working in Mali since 2015. Since 2017, it has been attended by employees of the State Museum of the East. The task of the expedition is to study the transformation of traditional Dogon culture in the context of globalization, as well as to collect ethnographic information (life, customs, features of the traditional social and political structure); to collect oral historical legends; to study the history, existence, and transformation of artistic tradition in the villages of the Dogon Country in modern conditions; collecting items of Ethnography and art to add to the collection of the African collection of the. Peter the Great Museum (Kunstkamera, Saint Petersburg) and the State Museum of Oriental Arts (Moscow). The plan of the expedition in January 2020 included additional items, namely, the study of the functioning of the antique market in Mali (the “path” of things from villages to cities, which is important for attributing works of traditional art). The geography of our research was significantly expanded to the regions of Sikasso and Koulikoro in Mali, as well as to the city of Bobo-Dioulasso and its surroundings in Burkina Faso, which is related to the study of migrations to the Bandiagara Highlands. In addition, the plan of the expedition included organization of a photo exhibition in the Museum of the village of Endé and some educational projects. Unfortunately, after the mass murder in March 2019 in the village of Ogossogou-Pel, where more than one hundred and seventy people were killed, events in the Dogon Country began to develop in the worst-case scenario: The incessant provocations after that revived the old feud between the Pel (Fulbe) pastoralists and the Dogon farmers. So far, this hostility and mutual distrust has not yet developed into a full-scale ethnic conflict, but, unfortunately, such a development now seems quite likely.

Risk-Based Robust Bidding Strategies for EVs’ Aggregators in Day-ahead Markets with Uncertainty

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ahmed Abdelmoaty ◽  
Wessam Mesbah ◽  
Mohammad A. M. Abdel-Aal ◽  
Ali T. Alawami
Keyword(s):  
Robust Optimization ◽  
Electricity Market ◽  
Real Life ◽  
Optimization Approach ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Bidding Strategies ◽  
Wind Generators ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Optimal Bidding

In the recent electricity market framework, the profit of the generation companies depends on the decision of the operator on the schedule of its units, the energy price, and the optimal bidding strategies. Due to the expanded integration of uncertain renewable generators which is highly intermittent such as wind plants, the coordination with other facilities to mitigate the risks of imbalances is mandatory. Accordingly, coordination of wind generators with the evolutionary Electric Vehicles (EVs) is expected to boost the performance of the grid. In this paper, we propose a robust optimization approach for the coordination between the wind-thermal generators and the EVs in a virtual<br>power plant (VPP) environment. The objective of maximizing the profit of the VPP Operator (VPPO) is studied. The optimal bidding strategy of the VPPO in the day-ahead market under uncertainties of wind power, energy<br>prices, imbalance prices, and demand is obtained for the worst case scenario. A case study is conducted to assess the e?effectiveness of the proposed model in terms of the VPPO's profit. A comparison between the proposed model and the scenario-based optimization was introduced. Our results confirmed that, although the conservative behavior of the worst-case robust optimization model, it helps the decision maker from the fluctuations of the uncertain parameters involved in the production and bidding processes. In addition, robust optimization is a more tractable problem and does not suffer from<br>the high computation burden associated with scenario-based stochastic programming. This makes it more practical for real-life scenarios.<br>

scholarly journals A Thermally Conductive Pt/AAO Catalyst for Hydrogen Passive Autocatalytic Recombination

Catalysts ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 491
Author(s):  
Alina E. Kozhukhova ◽  
Stephanus P. du Preez ◽  
Aleksander A. Malakhov ◽  
Dmitri G. Bessarabov
Keyword(s):  
Electron Microscopy ◽  
Particle Size ◽  
Combustion Temperature ◽  
Volume Fraction ◽  
Morphological Characteristics ◽  
Al Alloy ◽  
Impregnation Method ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Thermal Distribution

In this study, a Pt/anodized aluminum oxide (AAO) catalyst was prepared by the anodization of an Al alloy (Al6082, 97.5% Al), followed by the incorporation of Pt via an incipient wet impregnation method. Then, the Pt/AAO catalyst was evaluated for autocatalytic hydrogen recombination. The Pt/AAO catalyst’s morphological characteristics were determined by scanning electron microscopy (SEM) and transmission electron microscopy (TEM). The average Pt particle size was determined to be 3.0 ± 0.6 nm. This Pt/AAO catalyst was tested for the combustion of lean hydrogen (0.5–4 vol% H2 in the air) in a recombiner section testing station. The thermal distribution throughout the catalytic surface was investigated at 3 vol% hydrogen (H2) using an infrared camera. The Al/AAO system had a high thermal conductivity, which prevents the formation of hotspots (areas where localized surface temperature is higher than an average temperature across the entire catalyst surface). In turn, the Pt stability was enhanced during catalytic hydrogen combustion (CHC). A temperature gradient over 70 mm of the Pt/AAO catalyst was 23 °C and 42 °C for catalysts with uniform and nonuniform (worst-case scenario) Pt distributions. The commercial computational fluid dynamics (CFD) code STAR-CCM+ was used to compare the experimentally observed and numerically simulated thermal distribution of the Pt/AAO catalyst. The effect of the initial H2 volume fraction on the combustion temperature and conversion of H2 was investigated. The activation energy for CHC on the Pt/AAO catalyst was 19.2 kJ/mol. Prolonged CHC was performed to assess the durability (reactive metal stability and catalytic activity) of the Pt/AAO catalyst. A stable combustion temperature of 162.8 ± 8.0 °C was maintained over 530 h of CHC. To confirm that Pt aggregation was avoided, the Pt particle size and distribution were determined by TEM before and after prolonged CHC.

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