Interdecadal Change in the Relationship between ENSO and the Intraseasonal Oscillation in East Asia

2010 ◽  
Vol 23 (13) ◽  
pp. 3599-3612 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kyung-Sook Yun ◽  
Kyong-Hwan Seo ◽  
Kyung-Ja Ha
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Asian Summer Monsoon ◽  
Intraseasonal Oscillation ◽  
Longwave Radiation ◽  
Strong Relationship ◽  
Early Summer ◽  
Boreal Summer ◽  
Interdecadal Change

Abstract The northward-propagating intraseasonal oscillation (NPISO) during the boreal summer is closely linked to the onset/retreat and intensity of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM). In this study, interdecadal variability in the relationships between the NPISO and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) was investigated using long-term outgoing longwave radiation data obtained from the 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40) for a 44-yr period (1958 to 2001). It was found that before the late 1970s, the preceding winter ENSO influenced the early summer (i.e., May to June) NPISO activity, whereas after the late 1970s a strong relationship appeared during the later summertime (i.e., July to August). The May–June NPISO before the late 1970s was modulated by springtime Indian Ocean sea surface temperature warming and central North Pacific suppressed convection anomalies and was consequently related to the ENSO-induced west Pacific (WP) pattern, which shows a north–south dipole structure over the North Pacific from winter through spring. After the late 1970s, because of an anomalously strengthened Walker–Hadley circulation, Indian Ocean SST warming was significantly maintained until summer, which promoted a strong suppressed convection anomaly over the Philippine Sea during summer and consequently an enhanced western North Pacific subtropical high and Pacific–Japan (PJ) pattern.

scholarly journals Impacts of atmospheric and oceanic initial conditions on boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation forecast in the BCC model

2020 ◽  
Vol 142 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 393-406
Author(s):  
Zhongkai Bo ◽  
Xiangwen Liu ◽  
Weizong Gu ◽  
Anning Huang ◽  
Yongjie Fang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Western North Pacific ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Intraseasonal Oscillation ◽  
Tropical Indian Ocean ◽  
Boreal Summer ◽  
Model Errors ◽  
Maritime Continent ◽  
Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation

Abstract In this paper, we evaluate the capability of the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model (BCC-CSM) in simulating and forecasting the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO), using its simulation and sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) hindcast results. Results show that the model can generally simulate the spatial structure of the BSISO, but give relatively weaker strength, shorter period, and faster transition of BSISO phases when compared with the observations. This partially limits the model’s capability in forecasting the BSISO, with a useful skill of only 9 days. Two sets of hindcast experiments with improved atmospheric and atmosphere/ocean initial conditions (referred to as EXP1 and EXP2, respectively) are conducted to improve the BSISO forecast. The BSISO forecast skill is increased by 2 days with the optimization of atmospheric initial conditions only (EXP1), and is further increased by 1 day with the optimization of both atmospheric and oceanic initial conditions (EXP2). These changes lead to a final skill of 12 days, which is comparable to the skills of most models participated in the S2S Prediction Project. In EXP1 and EXP2, the BSISO forecast skills are improved for most initial phases, especially phases 1 and 2, denoting a better description for BSISO propagation from the tropical Indian Ocean to the western North Pacific. However, the skill is considerably low and insensitive to initial conditions for initial phase 6 and target phase 3, corresponding to the BSISO convection’s active-to-break transition over the western North Pacific and BSISO convection’s break-to-active transition over the tropical Indian Ocean and Maritime Continent. This prediction barrier also exists in many forecast models of the S2S Prediction Project. Our hindcast experiments with different initial conditions indicate that the remarkable model errors over the Maritime Continent and subtropical western North Pacific may largely account for the prediction barrier.

Strengthening of Tropical Indian Ocean Teleconnection to the Northwest Pacific since the Mid-1970s: An Atmospheric GCM Study*

2010 ◽  
Vol 23 (19) ◽  
pp. 5294-5304 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gang Huang ◽  
Kaiming Hu ◽  
Shang-Ping Xie
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Tropical Indian Ocean ◽  
Early Summer ◽  
Interdecadal Change ◽  
Northwest Pacific ◽  
Wind Pattern ◽  
Climate Anomalies

Abstract The correlation of northwest (NW) Pacific climate anomalies during summer with El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the preceding winter strengthens in the mid-1970s and remains high. This study investigates the hypothesis that the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) response to ENSO is key to this interdecadal change, using a 21-member ensemble simulation with the Community Atmosphere Model, version 3 (CAM3) forced by the observed history of sea surface temperature (SST) for 1950–2000. In the model hindcast, the TIO influence on the summer NW Pacific strengthens in the mid-1970s, and the strengthened TIO teleconnection coincides with an intensification of summer SST variability over the TIO. This result is corroborated by the fact the model’s skills in simulating NW Pacific climate anomalies during summer increase after the 1970s shift. During late spring to early summer, El Niño–induced TIO warming decays rapidly for the epoch prior to the 1970s shift but grows and persists through summer for the epoch occurring after it. This difference in the evolution of the TIO warming determines the strength of the TIO teleconnection to the NW Pacific in the subsequent summer. An antisymmetric wind pattern develops in spring across the equator over the TIO, and the associated northeasterly anomalies aid the summer warming over the north Indian Ocean by opposing the prevailing southwest monsoon. In the model, this antisymmetric spring wind pattern is well developed after but absent before the 1970s shift.

scholarly journals Monitoring and Predicting the Intraseasonal Variability of the East Asian–Western North Pacific Summer Monsoon

2013 ◽  
Vol 141 (3) ◽  
pp. 1124-1138 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hai Lin
Keyword(s):  
Summer Monsoon ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Western North Pacific ◽  
East Asian ◽  
Intraseasonal Variability ◽  
Intraseasonal Oscillation ◽  
Longwave Radiation ◽  
Boreal Summer ◽  
Global Environmental ◽  
Northward Propagation

Abstract In this study, a new index is defined to capture the prominent northward propagation of the intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) in boreal summer in the East Asian and western North Pacific (EAWNP) region. It is based on the first two modes of empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of the combined fields of daily anomalies of zonally averaged outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) and 850-hPa zonal wind (U850) in the EAWNP region. These two EOFs are well separated from the rest of the modes, and their principal components (PCs) capture the intraseasonal variability. They are nearly in quadrature in both space and time and their combination reasonably well represents the northward propagation of the ISO. As no future information beyond the current date is required as in conventional time filtering, this ISO index can be used in real-time applications. This index is applied to the output of the 24-yr historical hindcast experiment using the Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) model of Environment Canada to evaluate the forecast skill of the ISO of the EAWNP summer monsoon.

scholarly journals Modulation of Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillations over the Western North Pacific by ENSO

2016 ◽  
Vol 29 (20) ◽  
pp. 7189-7201 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fei Liu ◽  
Tim Li ◽  
Hui Wang ◽  
Li Deng ◽  
Yuanwen Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
El Niño ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Western North Pacific ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
La Niña ◽  
Boreal Summer ◽  
Maritime Continent ◽  
La Nina

Abstract The authors investigate the effects of El Niño and La Niña on the intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) in the boreal summer (May–October) over the western North Pacific (WNP). It is found that during El Niño summers, the ISO is dominated by a higher-frequency oscillation with a period of around 20–40 days, whereas during La Niña summers the ISO is dominated by a lower-frequency period of around 40–70 days. The former is characterized by northwestward-propagating convection anomalies in the WNP, and the latter is characterized by northward- and eastward-propagating convective signals over the tropical Indian Ocean/Maritime Continent. The possible mechanisms through which El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-induced background mean state changes influence the ISO behavior are examined through idealized numerical experiments. It is found that enhanced (weakened) mean moisture and easterly (westerly) vertical wind shear in the WNP during El Niño (La Niña) are the main causes of the strengthened (weakened) 20–40-day northwestward-propagating ISO mode, whereas the 40–70-day ISO initiated from the Indian Ocean can only affect the WNP during La Niña years because the dry (moist) background moisture near the Maritime Continent during El Niño (La Niña) suppresses (enhances) the ISO over the Maritime Continent, and the ISO propagates less over the Maritime Continent during El Niño years than in La Niña years.

scholarly journals Skilful predictions of the Asian summer monsoon one year ahead

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuhei Takaya ◽  
Yu Kosaka ◽  
Masahiro Watanabe ◽  
Shuhei Maeda
Keyword(s):  
Long Range ◽  
Summer Monsoon ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Asian Summer Monsoon ◽  
Boreal Summer ◽  
Climate Modelling ◽  
Large Ensemble ◽  
Asian Society ◽  
Asian Summer ◽  
One Year

AbstractThe interannual variability of the Asian summer monsoon has significant impacts on Asian society. Advances in climate modelling have enabled us to make useful predictions of the seasonal Asian summer monsoon up to approximately half a year ahead, but long-range predictions remain challenging. Here, using a 52-member large ensemble hindcast experiment spanning 1980–2016, we show that a state-of-the-art climate model can predict the Asian summer monsoon and associated summer tropical cyclone activity more than one year ahead. The key to this long-range prediction is successfully simulating El Niño-Southern Oscillation evolution and realistically representing the subsequent atmosphere–ocean response in the Indian Ocean–western North Pacific in the second boreal summer of the prediction. A large ensemble size is also important for achieving a useful prediction skill, with a margin for further improvement by an even larger ensemble.

scholarly journals Interannual variability of the boreal summer tropical UTLS in observations and CCMVal-2 simulations

2016 ◽  
Vol 16 (13) ◽  
pp. 8695-8714 ◽  
Author(s):  
Markus Kunze ◽  
Peter Braesicke ◽  
Ulrike Langematz ◽  
Gabriele Stiller
Keyword(s):  
Climate Models ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Asian Summer Monsoon ◽  
Multiple Linear Regression Model ◽  
Transport Processes ◽  
Boreal Summer ◽  
Temperature Pattern ◽  
The Tibetan Plateau ◽  
Quasi Biennial Oscillation ◽  
Mixing Ratios

Abstract. During boreal summer the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere (UTLS) in the Northern Hemisphere shows a distinct maximum in water vapour (H2O) mixing ratios and a coincident minimum in ozone (O3) mixing ratios, both confined within the Asian monsoon anticyclone (AMA). This well-known feature has been related to transport processes emerging above the convective systems during the Asian summer monsoon (ASM), further modified by the dynamics of the AMA. We compare the ability of chemistry–climate models (CCMs) to reproduce the climatological characteristics and variability of H2O, O3, and temperature in the UTLS during the boreal summer with MIPAS satellite observations and ERA-Interim reanalyses. By using a multiple linear regression model the main driving factors, the strength of the ASM, the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), are separated. The regression patterns related to ENSO show a coherent, zonally asymmetric signal for temperatures and H2O mixing ratios for ERA-Interim and the CCMs and suggest a weakening of the ASM during ENSO warm events. The QBO modulation of the lower-stratospheric temperature near the Equator is well represented as a zonally symmetric pattern in the CCMs. Changes in H2O and O3 mixing ratios are consistent with the QBO-induced temperature and circulation anomalies but less zonally symmetric than the temperature pattern. Regarding the ASM, the results of the regression analysis show for ERA-Interim and the CCMs enhanced H2O and reduced O3 mixing ratios within the AMA for stronger ASM seasons. The CCM results can further confirm earlier studies which emphasize the importance of the Tibetan Plateau/southern slope of the Himalayas as the main source region for H2O in the AMA. The results suggest that H2O is transported towards higher latitudes at the north-eastern edge of the AMA rather than towards low equatorial latitudes to be fed into the tropical pipe.

Interactions between Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillations and Synoptic-Scale Disturbances over the Western North Pacific. Part I: Energetics Diagnosis*

2011 ◽  
Vol 24 (3) ◽  
pp. 927-941 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pang-chi Hsu ◽  
Tim Li ◽  
Chih-Hua Tsou
Keyword(s):  
Kinetic Energy ◽  
Energy Conversion ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Western North Pacific ◽  
Intraseasonal Oscillation ◽  
Active Phase ◽  
Boreal Summer ◽  
Synoptic Eddies ◽  
Barotropic Energy Conversion

Abstract The role of scale interactions in the maintenance of eddy kinetic energy (EKE) during the extreme phases of the intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) is examined through the construction of a new eddy energetics diagnostic tool that separates the effects of ISO and a low-frequency background state (LFBS; with periods longer than 90 days). The LFBS always contributes positively toward the EKE in the boreal summer, regardless of the ISO phases. The synoptic eddies extract energy from the ISO during the ISO active phase. This positive barotropic energy conversion occurs when the synoptic eddies interact with low-level cyclonic and convergent–confluent ISO flows. This contrasts with the ISO suppressed phase during which the synoptic eddies lose kinetic energy to the ISO flow. The anticyclonic and divergent–diffluent ISO flows during the suppressed phase are responsible for the negative barotropic energy conversion. A positive (negative) EKE tendency occurs during the ISO suppressed-to-active (active-to-suppressed) transitional phase. The cause of this asymmetric EKE tendency is attributed to the spatial phase relation among the ISO vorticity, eddy structure, and EKE. The southwest–northeast-tilted synoptic disturbances interacting with cyclonic (anticyclonic) vorticity of ISO lead to a positive (negative) EKE tendency in the northwest region of the maximum EKE center. The genesis number and location and intensification rate of tropical cyclones in the western North Pacific are closely related to the barotropic energy conversion. The enhanced barotropic energy conversion favors the generation and development of synoptic seed disturbances, some of which eventually grow into tropical cyclones.

Inter-basin and Multi-time Scale Interactions in generating the 2019 Extreme Indian Ocean Dipole

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-39
Author(s):  
Lei Zhang ◽  
Weiqing Han ◽  
Zeng-Zhen Hu
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Indian Ocean Dipole ◽  
Intraseasonal Oscillation ◽  
Tropical Indian Ocean ◽  
Forecast Model ◽  
Tropical Pacific ◽  
Boreal Summer ◽  
Indian Ocean Dipole Event ◽  
Easterly Wind ◽  
Western Tropical Pacific

AbstractAn unprecedented extreme positive Indian Ocean Dipole event (pIOD) occurred in 2019, which has caused widespread disastrous impacts on countries bordering the Indian Ocean, including the East African floods and vast bushfires in Australia. Here we investigate the causes for the 2019 pIOD by analyzing multiple observational datasets and performing numerical model experiments. We find that the 2019 pIOD is triggered in May by easterly wind bursts over the tropical Indian Ocean associated with the dry phase of the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation, and sustained by the local atmosphere-ocean interaction thereafter. During September-November, warm sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) in the central-western tropical Pacific further enhance the Indian Ocean’s easterly winds, bringing the pIOD to an extreme magnitude. The central-western tropical Pacific warm SSTA is strengthened by two consecutive Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) events that originate from the tropical Indian Ocean. Our results highlight the important roles of cross-basin and cross-timescale interactions in generating extreme IOD events. The lack of accurate representation of these interactions may be the root for a short lead time in predicting this extreme pIOD with a state-of-the-art climate forecast model.

scholarly journals Interannual and interdecadal impact of Western North Pacific Subtropical High on tropical cyclone activity

2020 ◽  
Vol 54 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 2237-2248 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qiong Wu ◽  
Xiaochun Wang ◽  
Li Tao
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Western North Pacific ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Subtropical High ◽  
Interdecadal Change ◽  
Steering Flow ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies ◽  
Peak Phase

AbstractIn this study, we analyzed the impacts of Western North Pacific Subtropical High (WNPSH) on tropical cyclone (TC) activity on both interannual and interdecadal timescales. Based on a clustering analysis method, we grouped TCs in the Western North Pacific into three clusters according to their track patterns. We mainly focus on Cluster 1 (C1) TCs in this work, which is characterized by forming north of 15° N and moving northward. On interannual timescale, the number of C1 TCs is influenced by the intensity variability of the WNPSH, which is represented by the first Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) of 850 hPa geopotential height of the region. The WNPSH itself is modulated by the El Niño–Southern Oscillation at its peak phase in the previous winter, as well as Indian and Atlantic Ocean sea surface temperature anomalies in following seasons. The second EOF mode shows the interdecadal change of WNPSH intensity. The interdecadal variability of WNPSH intensity related to the Pacific climate regime shift could cause anomalies of the steering flow, and lead to the longitudinal shift of C1 TC track. Negative phases of interdecadal Pacific oscillation are associated with easterly anomaly of steering flow, westward shift of C1 TC track, and large TC impact on the East Asia coastal area.

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