Diagnosis of Zonal Mean Relative Humidity Changes in a Warmer Climate

2010 ◽  
Vol 23 (17) ◽  
pp. 4556-4569 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jonathon S. Wright ◽  
Adam Sobel ◽  
Joseph Galewsky
Keyword(s):  
Relative Humidity ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Transport Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Lower Troposphere ◽  
Hadley Cell ◽  
Tracer Transport ◽  
Transport Pathways ◽  
Extratropical Tropopause

Abstract The zonal mean relative humidity response to a doubling of CO2 in a climate model is examined using a global climate model and an offline tracer transport model. Offline tracer transport model simulations are driven by the output from two configurations of the climate model, one with 1979 concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases and one with doubled CO2. A set of last saturation tracers is applied within the tracer transport model to diagnose the dynamics responsible for features in the water vapor field. Two different methods are used to differentiate the effects of circulation and transport shifts from spatially inhomogeneous temperature changes. The first of these uses the tracer transport model and is achieved by decoupling the input temperature and circulation fields; the second uses the reconstruction of humidity from the last saturation tracers and is achieved by decoupling the tracer concentrations from their saturation specific humidities. The responses of the tropical and subtropical relative humidities are found to be largely dependent on circulation and transport changes, particularly a poleward expansion of the Hadley cell, a deepening of the height of convective detrainment, a poleward shift of the extratropical jets, and an increase in the height of the tropopause. The last saturation tracers are used to illustrate the influence of changes in transport pathways within the GCM on the zonal mean relative humidity, particularly in the tropical upper troposphere and subtropical dry zones. Relative humidity changes near the extratropical tropopause and in the lower troposphere are largely dependent on changes in the distribution and gradients of temperature. Increases in relative humidity near the extratropical tropopause in both hemispheres are coincident with increases in the occurrence of local saturation and high cloud cover.

scholarly journals Cirrus clouds in a global climate model with a statistical cirrus cloud scheme

2010 ◽  
Vol 10 (12) ◽  
pp. 5449-5474 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Wang ◽  
J. E. Penner
Keyword(s):  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Lower Troposphere ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Cirrus Clouds ◽  
Cloud Formation ◽  
Cirrus Cloud ◽  
Ice Crystal ◽  
Homogeneous Freezing

Abstract. A statistical cirrus cloud scheme that accounts for mesoscale temperature perturbations is implemented in a coupled aerosol and atmospheric circulation model to better represent both subgrid-scale supersaturation and cloud formation. This new scheme treats the effects of aerosol on cloud formation and ice freezing in an improved manner, and both homogeneous freezing and heterogeneous freezing are included. The scheme is able to better simulate the observed probability distribution of relative humidity compared to the scheme that was implemented in an older version of the model. Heterogeneous ice nuclei (IN) are shown to decrease the frequency of occurrence of supersaturation, and improve the comparison with observations at 192 hPa. Homogeneous freezing alone can not reproduce observed ice crystal number concentrations at low temperatures (<205 K), but the addition of heterogeneous IN improves the comparison somewhat. Increases in heterogeneous IN affect both high level cirrus clouds and low level liquid clouds. Increases in cirrus clouds lead to a more cloudy and moist lower troposphere with less precipitation, effects which we associate with the decreased convective activity. The change in the net cloud forcing is not very sensitive to the change in ice crystal concentrations, but the change in the net radiative flux at the top of the atmosphere is still large because of changes in water vapor. Changes in the magnitude of the assumed mesoscale temperature perturbations by 25% alter the ice crystal number concentrations and the net radiative fluxes by an amount that is comparable to that from a factor of 10 change in the heterogeneous IN number concentrations. Further improvements on the representation of mesoscale temperature perturbations, heterogeneous IN and the competition between homogeneous freezing and heterogeneous freezing are needed.

scholarly journals Summertime Potential Evapotranspiration in Eastern Washington State

2015 ◽  
Vol 54 (5) ◽  
pp. 1090-1101 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicholas A. Bond ◽  
Karin A. Bumbaco
Keyword(s):  
Relative Humidity ◽  
Pacific Northwest ◽  
Solar Irradiance ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Potential Evapotranspiration ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Washington State ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Eastern Washington

AbstractThe demands for water in agricultural regions depend on the rate of evapotranspiration (ET). Daily records of potential ET (pET) are available from the late 1980s through the present for five stations in eastern Washington State (George, Harrah, LeGrow, Lind, and Odessa) through the Pacific Northwest Cooperative Agricultural Weather Network (AgriMet) under the auspices of the Bureau of Reclamation. These records reveal a secular increase in the summer (June–August) mean pET over the period 1987–2014. This increase can be attributed largely to an increase in solar irradiance of 20–30 W m−2 over the same period. The seasonal mean solar irradiance accounts for approximately 35%–50% of the variance in the interannual variations in seasonal mean pET at the individual stations and for approximately 60% of the variance from a five-station average perspective. The period of analysis includes a mean increase of temperature of about 0.3°C (10 yr)−1, and the variability in temperature relates more to the year-to-year fluctuations in pET than to the overall increase in pET. The time series of surface relative humidity and wind speed exhibit only minor trends. Daily and seasonal mean data for 500-hPa geopotential height and other variables are used to determine aspects of the regional atmosphere associated with periods of high pET. Anomalous ridging aloft and negative anomalies in 925-hPa relative humidity tend to occur over the study area during the summers with the greatest pET. The relationships that are emerging may provide a basis for empirical downscaling of pET from global climate model projections.

scholarly journals Role of the Convection Scheme in Modeling Initiation and Intensification of Tropical Depressions over the North Atlantic

2017 ◽  
Vol 145 (4) ◽  
pp. 1495-1509 ◽  
Author(s):  
J.-P. Duvel ◽  
S. J. Camargo ◽  
A. H. Sobel
Keyword(s):  
Relative Humidity ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Convective Available Potential Energy ◽  
Convective Precipitation ◽  
Cloud Base ◽  
Entrainment Rate ◽  
Convection Scheme

Abstract The authors analyze how modifications of the convective scheme modify the initiation of tropical depression vortices (TDVs) and their intensification into stronger warm-cored tropical cyclone–like vortices (TCs) in global climate model (GCM) simulations. The model’s original convection scheme has entrainment and cloud-base mass flux closures based on moisture convergence. Two modifications are considered: one in which entrainment is dependent on relative humidity and another in which the closure is based on the convective available potential energy (CAPE). Compared to reanalysis, TDVs are more numerous and intense in all three simulations, probably as a result of excessive parameterized deep convection at the expense of convection detraining at midlevel. The relative humidity–dependent entrainment rate increases both TDV initiation and intensification relative to the control. This is because this entrainment rate is reduced in the moist center of the TDVs, giving more intense convective precipitation, and also because it generates a moister environment that may favor the development of early stage TDVs. The CAPE closure inhibits the parameterized convection in strong TDVs, thus limiting their development despite a slight increase in the resolved convection. However, the maximum intensity reached by TC-like TDVs is similar in the three simulations, showing the statistical character of these tendencies. The simulated TCs develop from TDVs with different dynamical origins than those observed. For instance, too many TDVs and TCs initiate near or over southern West Africa in the GCM, collocated with the maximum in easterly wave activity, whose characteristics are also dependent on the convection scheme considered.

scholarly journals Modelling the impacts of climate change on tropospheric ozone over three centuries

2011 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 6805-6843 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. B. Hedegaard ◽  
A. Gross ◽  
J. H. Christensen ◽  
W. May ◽  
H. Skov ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Ozone Concentration ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Transport Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Ocean General Circulation Model ◽  
The Arctic

Abstract. The ozone chemistry over three centuries has been simulated based on climate prediction from a global climate model and constant anthropogenic emissions in order to separate out the effects on air pollution from climate change. Four decades in different centuries has been simulated using the chemistry version of the atmospheric long-range transport model; the Danish Eulerian Hemispheric Model (DEHM) forced with meteorology predicted by the ECHAM5/MPI-OM coupled Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Model. The largest changes in both meteorology, ozone and its precursors is found in the 21st century, however, also significant changes are found in the 22nd century. At surface level the ozone concentration is predicted to increase due to climate change in the areas where substantial amounts of ozone precursors are emitted. Elsewhere a significant decrease is predicted at the surface. In the free troposphere a general increase is found in the entire Northern Hemisphere except in the tropics, where the ozone concentration is decreasing. In the Arctic the ozone concentration will increase in the entire air column, which most likely is due to changes in transport. The change in temperature, humidity and the naturally emitted Volatile Organic Compounds (VOCs) are governing with respect to changes in ozone both in the past, present and future century.

Model Uncertainty in Cloud–Circulation Coupling, and Cloud-Radiative Response to Increasing CO2, Linked to Biases in Climatological Circulation

2018 ◽  
Vol 31 (24) ◽  
pp. 10013-10020
Author(s):  
Bernard R. Lipat ◽  
Aiko Voigt ◽  
George Tselioudis ◽  
Lorenzo M. Polvani
Keyword(s):  
Model Uncertainty ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Hadley Cell ◽  
Temperature Structure ◽  
Climatological Circulation

Recent analyses of global climate models suggest that uncertainty in the coupling between midlatitude clouds and the atmospheric circulation contributes to uncertainty in climate sensitivity. However, the reasons behind model differences in the cloud–circulation coupling have remained unclear. Here, we use a global climate model in an idealized aquaplanet setup to show that the Southern Hemisphere climatological circulation, which in many models is biased equatorward, contributes to the model differences in the cloud–circulation coupling. For the same poleward shift of the Hadley cell (HC) edge, models with narrower climatological HCs exhibit stronger midlatitude cloud-induced shortwave warming than models with wider climatological HCs. This cloud-induced radiative warming results predominantly from a subsidence warming that decreases cloud fraction and is stronger for narrower HCs because of a larger meridional gradient in the vertical velocity. A comparison of our aquaplanet results with comprehensive climate models suggests that about half of the model uncertainty in the midlatitude cloud–circulation coupling stems from this impact of the circulation on the large-scale temperature structure of the atmosphere, and thus could be removed by improving the climatological circulation in models. This illustrates how understanding of large-scale dynamics can help reduce uncertainty in clouds and their response to climate change.

scholarly journals Reassessing Statistical Downscaling Techniques for Their Robust Application under Climate Change Conditions

2013 ◽  
Vol 26 (1) ◽  
pp. 171-188 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. M. Gutiérrez ◽  
D. San-Martín ◽  
S. Brands ◽  
R. Manzanas ◽  
S. Herrera
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Statistical Downscaling ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Lower Troposphere ◽  
Temperature Inversion ◽  
Max Planck ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Climate Conditions

Abstract The performance of statistical downscaling (SD) techniques is critically reassessed with respect to their robust applicability in climate change studies. To this end, in addition to standard accuracy measures and distributional similarity scores, the authors estimate the robustness of the methods under warming climate conditions working with anomalous warm historical periods. This validation framework is applied to intercompare the performances of 12 different SD methods (from the analog, weather typing, and regression families) for downscaling minimum and maximum temperatures in Spain. First, a calibration of these methods is performed in terms of both geographical domains and predictor sets; the results are highly dependent on the latter, with optimum predictor sets including near-surface temperature data (in particular 2-m temperature), which appropriately discriminate cold episodes related to temperature inversion in the lower troposphere. Although regression methods perform best in terms of correlation, analog and weather generator approaches are more appropriate for reproducing the observed distributions, especially in case of wintertime minimum temperature. However, the latter two families significantly underestimate the temperature anomalies of the warm periods considered in this work. This underestimation is found to be critical when considering the warming signal in the late twenty-first century as given by a global climate model [the ECHAM5–Max Planck Institute (MPI) model]. In this case, the different downscaling methods provide warming values with differences in the range of 1°C, in agreement with the robustness significance values. Therefore, the proposed test is a promising technique for detecting lack of robustness in statistical downscaling methods applied in climate change studies.

scholarly journals Accounting for Several Infrared Radiation Processes in Climate Models

2019 ◽  
Vol 32 (15) ◽  
pp. 4601-4620 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kun Wu ◽  
Jiangnan Li ◽  
Jason Cole ◽  
Xianglei Huang ◽  
Knut von Salzen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Solar Energy ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Surface Wind ◽  
Lower Troposphere ◽  
Single Band ◽  
Tropospheric Temperature ◽  
Radiation Processes

AbstractThree aspects of longwave (LW) radiation processes are investigated using numerical experiments with the Canadian Atmospheric Global Climate Model version 4.3 (CanAM4.3). These are the overlapping LW and shortwave (SW) radiation, scattering by clouds, and specification of ocean emissivity. For the overlapping of solar and infrared spectra, using a single band scheme was compared against a method directly inputting solar energy. Offline calculations show that for high clouds using the single band can cause an overestimate of the downward LW flux, whereas a method that accounts for input solar energy in the LW yields results that are more accurate. Longwave scattering by clouds traps more infrared energy in the atmosphere and reduces the outgoing radiation to space. Simulations with CanAM4.3 show that cloud LW scattering can enhance the LW cooling rate above the tropopause and reduce it inside the troposphere, resulting in warmer temperatures, especially in the tropics and low latitudes. This implies a larger temperature gradient toward the polar region, which causes a strengthening of the Hadley circulation and shifting of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ). The increase in lower tropospheric temperature also affects the lower troposphere water vapor and precipitation. Sensitivity to the specification of ocean emissivity is examined by comparing a broadband scheme dependent on the surface wind and solar zenith angle against one that resolves the wavelength dependence. Experiments with CanAM4.3 show that the two oceanic emissivity schemes can produce over 1 W m−2 seasonal mean difference of the upward flux at the surface.

scholarly journals A single column simulation-based decomposition of the tropical upper tropospheric warming

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-36
Author(s):  
Yuwei Wang ◽  
Yi Huang
Keyword(s):  
Relative Humidity ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Dilution Effect ◽  
Lapse Rate ◽  
Modeling Framework ◽  
Single Column ◽  
Convective Adjustment

AbstractAn atmospheric global climate model (GCM) and its associated single-column model are used to study the tropical upper tropospheric warming and elucidate how different processes drive this warming. In this modeling framework, on average the direct radiative process accounts for 13% of the total warming. The radiation increases the atmospheric lapse rate and triggers more convection, which further produces 74% of the total warming. The rest 13% is attributable to the circulation adjustment. The relative importance of these processes differs in different regions. In the deep tropics, the radiative-convective adjustment produces the most significant warming and accounts for almost 100% of the total warming. In the subtropics, the radiative-convective adjustment accounts for 73% of the total warming and the circulation adjustment plays a more important role than in the deep tropics, especially at the levels above 200 hPa. When the lateral boundary conditions, i.e. the temperature and water vapor advections, are held fixed in single-column simulations, the tropospheric relative humidity significantly increases in the radiative-convective adjustment in response to the surface warming. This result, in contrast to the relative humidity conservation behavior in the GCM, highlights the importance of circulation adjustment in maintaining the constant relative humidity. The tropical upper tropospheric warming in both the full GCM and the single-column simulations is found to be less strong than the warming predicted by reference moist adiabats. This evidences that the sub-moist-adiabat warming occurs even without the dilution effect of the large-scale circulation adjustment.

scholarly journals The G4Foam Experiment: global climate impacts of regional ocean albedo modification

2017 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
pp. 595-613 ◽  
Author(s):  
Corey J. Gabriel ◽  
Alan Robock ◽  
Lili Xia ◽  
Brian Zambri ◽  
Ben Kravitz
Keyword(s):  
Southern Hemisphere ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Ocean Surface ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Hadley Cell ◽  
Ocean Gyres ◽  
The Tropics

Abstract. Reducing insolation has been proposed as a geoengineering response to global warming. Here we present the results of climate model simulations of a unique Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project Testbed experiment to investigate the benefits and risks of a scheme that would brighten certain oceanic regions. The National Center for Atmospheric Research CESM CAM4-Chem global climate model was modified to simulate a scheme in which the albedo of the ocean surface is increased over the subtropical ocean gyres in the Southern Hemisphere. In theory, this could be accomplished using a stable, nondispersive foam, comprised of tiny, highly reflective microbubbles. Such a foam has been developed under idealized conditions, although deployment at a large scale is presently infeasible. We conducted three ensemble members of a simulation (G4Foam) from 2020 through to 2069 in which the albedo of the ocean surface is set to 0.15 (an increase of 150 %) over the three subtropical ocean gyres in the Southern Hemisphere, against a background of the RCP6.0 (representative concentration pathway resulting in +6 W m−2 radiative forcing by 2100) scenario. After 2069, geoengineering is ceased, and the simulation is run for an additional 20 years. Global mean surface temperature in G4Foam is 0.6 K lower than RCP6.0, with statistically significant cooling relative to RCP6.0 south of 30° N. There is an increase in rainfall over land, most pronouncedly in the tropics during the June–July–August season, relative to both G4SSA (specified stratospheric aerosols) and RCP6.0. Heavily populated and highly cultivated regions throughout the tropics, including the Sahel, southern Asia, the Maritime Continent, Central America, and much of the Amazon experience a statistically significant increase in precipitation minus evaporation. The temperature response to the relatively modest global average forcing of −1.5 W m−2 is amplified through a series of positive cloud feedbacks, in which more shortwave radiation is reflected. The precipitation response is primarily the result of the intensification of the southern Hadley cell, as its mean position migrates northward and away from the Equator in response to the asymmetric cooling.

scholarly journals The G4Foam Experiment: Global Climate Impacts of Regional Ocean Albedo Modification

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Corey J. Gabriel ◽  
Alan Robock ◽  
Lili Xia ◽  
Brian Zambri
Keyword(s):  
Southern Hemisphere ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Ocean Surface ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Hadley Cell ◽  
Ocean Gyres ◽  
The Tropics

Abstract. Reducing insolation has been proposed as a geoengineering response to global warming. Here we present the results of climate model simulations of a unique Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project Testbed experiment to investigate the benefits and risks of a scheme that would brighten certain oceanic regions. The National Center for Atmospheric Research CESM-CAM4-CHEM global climate model was modified to simulate a scheme in which the albedo of the ocean surface is raised over the subtropical ocean gyres in the Southern Hemisphere. Like the commonly studied stratospheric geoengineering and marine cloud brightening proposals, this ocean albedo modification scheme is not currently possible. However, a stable, nondispersive foam, comprised of tiny, highly reflective microbubbles has been developed under idealized conditions, and, hence, a geoengineering scheme which simulates the effects of large-scale deployment of these microbubbles is appropriate to study at this time. One goal of this scheme is to cool Earth without reducing monsoon rainfall. We conducted three ensemble members of a simulation (G4Foam) from 2020 through 2069 in which the albedo of the ocean surface is raised to 0.15 over the three subtropical ocean gyres in the Southern Hemisphere, at the same time as increasing the radiative forcing with the RCP6.0 (representative concentration pathway resulting in +6 W m−2 radiative forcing by 2100) scenario, and then continuing the simulation for 20 more years with RCP6.0. Global mean surface temperature in G4Foam is 0.6 K lower than RCP6.0, with statistically significant cooling relative to RCP6.0 south of 30 °N and an increase in rainfall over land, most pronouncedly in the tropics during the June–July–August season, relative to both G4SSA (specified stratospheric aerosols) and RCP6.0. Heavily populated and highly cultivated regions throughout the tropics, including the Sahel, Southern Asia, the Maritime Continent, Central America and much of the Amazon experience a statistically significant increase in precipitation minus evaporation. The temperature response to the relatively modest global average forcing of −1.5 W m−2 is amplified through a series of positive cloud feedbacks, in which more shortwave radiation is reflected. The precipitation response is primarily the result of the intensification of the southern Hadley cell, as its mean position migrates northward and away from the Equator in response to the asymmetric cooling.

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