scholarly journals Correlating Storm Surge Heights with Tropical Cyclone Winds at and before Landfall

2014 ◽  
Vol 18 (7) ◽  
pp. 1-26 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hal F. Needham ◽  
Barry D. Keim
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Gulf Coast ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Wind Speeds ◽  
Management Personnel ◽  
Maximum Water ◽  
Wind Surge ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Unique Dataset

Abstract This paper investigates relationships between storm surge heights and tropical cyclone wind speeds at 3-h increments preceding landfall. A unique dataset containing hourly tropical cyclone position and wind speed is used in conjunction with a comprehensive storm surge dataset that provides maximum water levels for 189 surge events along the U.S. Gulf Coast from 1880 to 2011. A landfall/surge classification was developed for analyzing the relationship between surge magnitudes and prelandfall winds. Ten of the landfall/surge event types provided useable data, producing 117 wind–surge events that were incorporated into this study. Statistical analysis indicates that storm surge heights correlate better with prelandfall tropical cyclone winds than with wind speeds at landfall. Wind speeds 18 h before landfall correlated best with surge heights. Raising wind speeds to exponential powers produced the best wind–surge fit. Higher wind–surge correlations were found when testing a more recent sample of data that contained 63 wind–surge events since 1960. The highest correlation for these data was found when wind speeds 18 h before landfall were raised to a power of 2.2, which provided R2 values that approached 0.70. The R2 values at landfall for these same data were only 0.44. Such results will be useful to storm surge modelers, coastal scientists, and emergency management personnel, especially when tropical cyclones rapidly strengthen or weaken while approaching the coast.

scholarly journals NUMERICAL MODELLING OF TROPICAL CYCLONE STORM SURGE

1980 ◽  
Vol 1 (17) ◽  
pp. 44
Author(s):  
Rodney J. Sobey ◽  
Bruce A. Harper ◽  
George M. Mitchell
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Wave Equations ◽  
Surface Wind ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Open Boundary ◽  
Deformation Analysis ◽  
Linear Effects ◽  
Explicit Finite Difference ◽  
Hurricane Storm Surge

Details are presented of a general numerical hydrodynamic model for the generation and propagation of tropical cyclone or hurricane storm surge. The model, known as SURGE, solves the two-dimensional depth-integrated form of the Long Wave Equations using an explicit finite difference procedure, with tropical cyclone surface wind and pressure forcing estimated from an adaption of available models based on U.S. hurricanes. Variations in tropical cyclone parameters as well as the physical characteristics of a coastal location such as bathymetry and details of capes, bays, reefs and islands are accommodated by the model. The accuracy and stability of the numerical solution have been confirmed by a comprehensive wave deformation analysis including quasi-non-linear effects and the open boundary problem has been overcome by the use of a Bathystrophic Storm Tide approximation to boundary water levels. A detailed sensitivity analysis has identified the principal surge generating parameters and the model has been checked against an historical tropical cyclone storm surge. SURGE has been used extensively in the northern Australian region and examples are presented.

scholarly journals An Empirical Analysis on the Relationship between Tropical Cyclone Size and Storm Surge Heights along the U.S. Gulf Coast

2014 ◽  
Vol 18 (8) ◽  
pp. 1-15 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hal F. Needham ◽  
Barry D. Keim
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Hurricane Katrina ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Empirical Analysis ◽  
Gulf Coast ◽  
Inverse Correlation ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Wind Fields ◽  
The U.S

Abstract In the past decade, several large tropical cyclones have generated catastrophic storm surges along the U.S. Gulf and Atlantic Coasts. These storms include Hurricanes Katrina, Ike, Isaac, and Sandy. This study uses empirical analysis of tropical cyclone data and maximum storm surge observations to investigate the role of tropical cyclone size in storm surge generation. Storm surge data are provided by the Storm Surge Database (SURGEDAT), a global storm surge database, while a unique tropical cyclone size dataset built from nine different data sources provides the size of the radius of maximum winds (Rmax) and the radii of 63 (34 kt), 93 (50 kt), and 119 km h−1 (64 kt) winds. Statistical analysis reveals an inverse correlation between storm surge magnitudes and Rmax sizes, while positive correlations exist between storm surge heights and the radius of 63 (34 kt), 93 (50 kt), and 119 km h−1 (64 kt) winds. Storm surge heights correlate best with the prelandfall radius of 93 km h−1 (50 kt) winds, with a Spearman correlation coefficient value of 0.82, significant at the 99.9% confidence level. Many historical examples support these statistical results. For example, the 1900 Galveston hurricane, the 1935 Labor Day hurricane, and Hurricane Camille all had small Rmax sizes but generated catastrophic surges. Hurricane Katrina provides an example of the importance of large wind fields, as hurricane-force winds extending 167 km [90 nautical miles (n mi)] from the center of circulation enabled this large storm to generate a higher storm surge level than Hurricane Camille along the same stretch of coast, even though Camille’s prelandfall winds were slightly stronger than Katrina’s. These results may be useful to the storm surge modeling community, as well as disaster science and emergency management professionals, who will benefit from better understanding the role of tropical cyclone size for storm surge generation.

scholarly journals Is Tropical Cyclone Surge, Not Intensity, What Kills So Many People in South Asia?

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 171-181 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Niggol Seo ◽  
Laura A. Bakkensen
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
South Asia ◽  
Statistical Inference ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Pressure Dependence ◽  
Causal Link ◽  
Building Structures ◽  
Independence Model ◽  
Storm Intensity ◽  
The Relationship

Abstract This paper statistically examines the hypothesis that the level of storm surge, not storm intensity, is primarily responsible for the large number of tropical cyclone fatalities in South Asia. Because the potential causal link between intensity and surge can confound statistical inference, the authors develop two fatality models using different assumptions on the relationship between storm surge and intensity. The authors find evidence that storm surge is a primary killer of people in South Asia relative to storm intensity. In a surge–pressure independence model, it is found that a 10-cm increase in storm surge results in a 14% increase in the number of fatalities. In a surge–pressure dependence model, a 10-cm increase in the level of surge not driven by minimum central pressure (MCP) leads to 9.9% increase in the number of fatalities. By contrast, a one-millibar (1 hPa) decrease in MCP leads to a 7.3% increase in the number of fatalities, some of which is also attributable to storm surge. In South Asia, adaptation strategies should target a higher level of storm surge instead of higher-intensity storms. Policies to combat surge include permanent relocation, temporary evacuation, changes in building structures, and coastal fortification.

scholarly journals Generating reliable estimates of tropical cyclone induced coastal hazards along the Bay of Bengal for current and future climates using synthetic tracks

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tim Willem Bart Leijnse ◽  
Alessio Giardino ◽  
Kees Nederhoff ◽  
Sofia Caires
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Bay Of Bengal ◽  
Coastal Hazards ◽  
Wind Fields ◽  
Tropical Cyclone Frequency ◽  
Wind Speeds ◽  
Wave Heights ◽  
Cyclone Frequency

Abstract. Deriving reliable estimates of design water levels and wave conditions resulting from tropical cyclones is a challenging problem of high relevance for, among others, coastal and offshore engineering projects and risk assessment studies. Tropical cyclone geometry and wind speeds have been recorded for the past few decades only, therefore resulting in poorly reliable estimates of the extremes, especially at regions characterized by a low number of past tropical cyclone events. In this paper, this challenge is overcome by using synthetic tropical cyclone tracks and wind fields generated by the open source tool TCWiSE (Tropical Cyclone Wind Statistical Estimation), to create thousands of realizations representative for 1,000 years of tropical cyclone activity for the Bay of Bengal. Each of these realizations is used to force coupled storm surge and wave simulations by means of the processed-based Delft3D Flexible Mesh Suite. It is shown that the use of synthetic tracks provides reliable estimates of the statistics of the first-order hazard (i.e. wind speed) compared to the statistics derived for historical tropical cyclones. Based on estimated wind fields, second-order hazards (i.e. storm surge and waves) are computed. The estimates of the extreme values derived for wind speed, wave height and storm surge are shown to converge within the 1,000 years of simulated cyclone tracks. Comparing second-order hazard estimates based on historical and synthetic tracks show that, for this case study, the use of historical tracks (a deterministic approach) leads to an underestimation of the mean computed storm surge up to −30 %. Differences between the use of synthetic versus historical tracks are characterized by a large spatial variability along the Bay of Bengal, where regions with a lower probability of occurrence of tropical cyclones show the largest difference in predicted storm surge and wave heights. In addition, the use of historical tracks leads to much larger uncertainty bands in the estimation of both storm surges and wave heights, with confidence intervals being +80 % larger compared to those estimated by using synthetic tracks (probabilistic approach). Based on the same tropical cyclone realizations, the effect that changes in tropical cyclone frequency and intensity, possibly resulting from climate change, may have on modelled storm surge and wave heights were computed. An increase in tropical cyclone frequency of +25.6 % and wind intensity of +1.6 %, based on literature values, could result in an increase of storm surge and wave heights of +11 % and +9 % respectively. This suggest that climate change could increase tropical cyclone induced coastal hazards more than just the actual increase in maximum wind speeds.

scholarly journals EFFECTS OF STORM SURGE ON WATER LEVELS OF THE LAGOON SYSTEM OF JACAREPAGUÁ – RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL

2018 ◽  
pp. 16
Author(s):  
Monica F.Y. Buckmann ◽  
Laura Aguilera ◽  
Paulo Cesar C. Rosman
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Time Lags ◽  
Tidal Prism ◽  
Lagoon System ◽  
Maximum Elevation ◽  
Maximum Water ◽  
Water Elevations ◽  
The Impact

The Lagoon System of Jacarepaguá is the most vulnerable coastal area of Brazil due to its high population density and important economic activities. Severe meteorological conditions due to climate changes are more likely to affect the lagoon system in the future, increasing the exposure of the area and the probability of flooding of the low-lying surrounding areas. To determine the vulnerability of the area to diverse agents, this work addressed the impact of different combinations of sea level rise, heavy rainfall and storm surges. The study cases considered two different bathymetry conditions, the actual silting bathymetry, and the resulting bathymetry after a planned dredging project. Tidal prism, the maximum water elevations and the time of occurrence were analyzed. The main results showed that storm surge has the most impact on the maximum water elevations, overcoming the impact of an increase in the sea level, river flow and changes in bathymetry. The results of time lags comparing the time of occurrence of maximum elevation recorded at the open sea and the time of occurrence of maximum elevation on the north margin, the most populated area, of the lagoon system showed a time lag of 13-17h. The benefits of the planned dredging project would be mostly to allow a better water renovation in the lagoons, due to a higher tidal prism.

Forecasting the fl ood situation using space images in the city of Tavda Sverdlovsk region

2018 ◽  
Vol 934 (4) ◽  
pp. 46-52
Author(s):  
A.S. Bruskova ◽  
T.I. Levitskaya ◽  
D.M. Haydukova
Keyword(s):  
Water Levels ◽  
Economic Damage ◽  
Geoinformation System ◽  
Space Images ◽  
Geoinformation Systems ◽  
Emergency Situations ◽  
The Earth ◽  
Maximum Water ◽  
The City

Flooding is a dangerous phenomenon, causing emergency situations and causing material damage, capable of damaging health, and even death of people. To reduce the risk and economic damage from flooding, it is necessary to forecast flooding areas. An effective method of forecasting emergency situations due to flooding is the method of remote sensing of the Earth with integration into geoinformation systems. With the help of satellite imagery, a model of flooding was determined based on the example of Tavda, the Sverdlovsk Region. Space images are loaded into the geoinformation system and on their basis a series of thematic layers is created, which contains information about the zones of possible flooding at given water level marks. The determination of the area of flooding is based on the calculation of the availability of maximum water levels at hydrological stations. According to the calculated security data, for each hydrological post, flood zones are constructed by interpolation between pre-calculated flood zones of standard security. The results of the work can be used by the Main Directorate of the Ministry for Emergency Situations of Russia for the Sverdlovsk Region.

scholarly journals Correction to: Future projection of maximum potential storm surge height at three major bays in Japan using the maximum potential intensity of a tropical cyclone

2021 ◽  
Vol 164 (3-4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nobuhito Mori ◽  
Nozomi Ariyoshi ◽  
Tomoya Shimura ◽  
Takuya Miyashita ◽  
Junichi Ninomiya
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Future Projection ◽  
Surge Height

Future projection of maximum potential storm surge height at three major bays in Japan using the maximum potential intensity of a tropical cyclone

2021 ◽  
Vol 164 (3-4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nobuhito Mori ◽  
Nozomi Ariyoshi ◽  
Tomoya Shimura ◽  
Takuya Miyashita ◽  
Junichi Ninomiya
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Future Projection ◽  
Surge Height

Ocean heat content for tropical cyclone intensity forecasting and its impact on storm surge

2012 ◽  
Vol 66 (3) ◽  
pp. 1481-1500 ◽  
Author(s):  
I.-I. Lin ◽  
Gustavo J. Goni ◽  
John A. Knaff ◽  
Cristina Forbes ◽  
M. M. Ali
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Heat Content ◽  
Ocean Heat Content ◽  
Tropical Cyclone Intensity ◽  
Cyclone Intensity
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