scholarly journals Repeat Storm Surge Disasters of Typhoon Haiyan and Its 1897 Predecessor in the Philippines

2016 ◽  
Vol 97 (1) ◽  
pp. 31-48 ◽  
Author(s):  
Janneli Lea A. Soria ◽  
Adam D. Switzer ◽  
Cesar L. Villanoy ◽  
Hermann M. Fritz ◽  
Princess Hope T. Bilgera ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Storm Surge ◽  
Field Measurements ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Risk Awareness ◽  
Community Based ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Video Recordings ◽  
San Pedro ◽  
San Pedro Bay

Abstract On 8 November 2013, Typhoon Haiyan impacted the Philippines with estimated winds of approximately 314 km h-1 and an associated 5–7-m-high storm surge that struck Tacloban City and the surrounding coast of the shallow, funnel-shaped San Pedro Bay. Typhoon Haiyan killed more than 6,000 people, superseding Tropical Storm Thelma of November 1991 as the deadliest typhoon in the Philippines. Globally, it was the deadliest tropical cyclone since Nargis hit Myanmar in 2008. Here, we use field measurements, eyewitness accounts, and video recordings to corroborate numerical simulations and to characterize the extremely high velocity flooding caused by the Typhoon Haiyan storm surge in both San Pedro Bay and on the more open Pacific Ocean coast. We then compare the surge heights from Typhoon Haiyan with historical records of an unnamed typhoon that took a similar path of destruction in October 1897 (Ty 1897) but which was less intense, smaller, and moved more slowly. The Haiyan surge was about twice the height of the 1897 event in San Pedro Bay, but the two storm surges had similar heights on the open Pacific coast. Until stronger prehistoric events are explored, these two storm surges serve as worst-case scenarios for this region. This study highlights that rare but disastrous events should be carefully evaluated in the context of enhancing community-based disaster risk awareness, planning, and response.

scholarly journals Discrepancies on Storm Surge Predictions by Parametric Wind Model and Numerical Weather Prediction Model in a Semi-Enclosed Bay: Case Study of Typhoon Haiyan

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (12) ◽  
pp. 3326
Author(s):  
Yu-Lin Tsai ◽  
Tso-Ren Wu ◽  
Chuan-Yao Lin ◽  
Simon C. Lin ◽  
Eric Yen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Prediction Model ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Numerical Weather Prediction ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Numerical Weather Prediction Model ◽  
Forward Speed ◽  
Wind Model ◽  
San Pedro ◽  
San Pedro Bay

This study explores the discrepancies of storm surge predictions driven by the parametric wind model and the numerical weather prediction model. Serving as a leading-order storm wind predictive tool, the parametric Holland wind model provides the frictional-free, steady-state, and geostrophic-balancing solutions. On the other hand, WRF-ARW (Weather Research and Forecasting-Advanced Research WRF) provides the results solving the 3D time-integrated, compressible, and non-hydrostatic Euler equations, but time-consuming. To shed light on their discrepancies for storm surge predictions, the storm surges of 2013 Typhoon Haiyan in the Leyte Gulf and the San Pedro Bay are selected. The Holland wind model predicts strong southeastern winds in the San Pedro Bay after Haiyan makes landfall at the Leyte Island than WRF-ARW 3 km and WRF-ARW 1 km. The storm surge simulation driven by the Holland wind model finds that the water piles up in the San Pedro Bay and its maximum computed storm surges are almost twice than those driven by WRF-ARW. This study also finds that the storm surge prediction in the San Pedro Bay is sensitive to winds, which can be affected by the landfall location, the storm intensity, and the storm forward speed. The numerical experiment points out that the maximum storm surges can be amplified by more 5–6% inside the San Pedro Bay if Haiyan’s forward speed is increased by 10%.

scholarly journals APPLICABILITY OF THE VERTICAL TELESCOPIC BREAKWATER USING THE PAST TYPHOON IN TOKYO BAY

2020 ◽  
pp. 35
Author(s):  
Yako Harada ◽  
Yukihisa Matsumoto ◽  
Kazuho Morishita ◽  
Nobuyuki Oonishi ◽  
Kazuyoshi Kihara ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Numerical Calculations ◽  
Numerical Analyses ◽  
Tokyo Bay ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Sea Levels ◽  
Long Period ◽  
The Past

The vertical telescopic breakwater(VTB), which is a new breakwater that permits the navigation of ships, remain at the bottom of the sea during calm and rise to the surface during tsunamis or storm surges. Kawai et al. (2017) and Arikawa et al. (2019) found that it is effective not only for swell waves, but also for long-period waves simulating tsunamis and storm surges by previous experiments and numerical analyses. However, there have been few studies on the performance of VTB by numerical calculations in actual ports using actual typhoons. In addition, sea levels and changes in characteristics of typhoon due to climate change are predicted to occur; hence, we are concerned about the damage in all quarters caused by storm surge inundation, especially at Tokyo. Therefore, in this study, we used hypothetical typhoons under worst-case scenarios and quantitatively evaluated the protection performance of VTB against hypothetical typhoons with different aperture rates of VTB in Tokyo Bay by the numerical simulation.Recorded Presentation from the vICCE (YouTube Link): https://youtu.be/qof5ixKqIiA

scholarly journals Developing an early warning system for storm surge inundation in the Philippines

2014 ◽  
Vol 2 (10) ◽  
pp. 6241-6270
Author(s):  
J. Tablazon ◽  
C. V. Caro ◽  
A. M. F. Lagmay ◽  
J. B. L. Briones ◽  
L. Dasallas ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Storm Surge ◽  
Frequency Distribution ◽  
Early Warning ◽  
Early Warning System ◽  
Warning System ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Coastal Areas ◽  
Japan Meteorological Agency ◽  
Series Data

Abstract. A storm surge is the sudden rise of sea water generated by an approaching storm, over and above the astronomical tides. This event imposes a major threat in the Philippine coastal areas, as manifested by Typhoon Haiyan on 8 November 2013 where more than 6000 people lost their lives. It has become evident that the need to develop an early warning system for storm surges is of utmost importance. To provide forecasts of the possible storm surge heights of an approaching typhoon, the Nationwide Operational Assessment of Hazards under the Department of Science and Technology (DOST-Project NOAH) simulated historical tropical cyclones that entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility. Bathymetric data, storm track, central atmospheric pressure, and maximum wind speed were used as parameters for the Japan Meteorological Agency Storm Surge Model. The researchers calculated the frequency distribution of maximum storm surge heights of all typhoons under a specific Public Storm Warning Signal (PSWS) that passed through a particular coastal area. This determines the storm surge height corresponding to a given probability of occurrence. The storm surge heights from the model were added to the maximum astronomical tide data from WXTide software. The team then created maps of probable area inundation and flood levels of storm surges along coastal areas for a specific PSWS using the results of the frequency distribution. These maps were developed from the time series data of the storm tide at 10 min intervals of all observation points in the Philippines. This information will be beneficial in developing early warnings systems, static maps, disaster mitigation and preparedness plans, vulnerability assessments, risk-sensitive land use plans, shoreline defense efforts, and coastal protection measures. Moreover, these will support the local government units' mandate to raise public awareness, disseminate information about storm surge hazards, and implement appropriate counter-measures for a given PSWS.

scholarly journals Identification of storm surge vulnerable areas in the Philippines through the simulation of Typhoon Haiyan-induced storm surge levels over historical storm tracks

2015 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 919-939 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. P. Lapidez ◽  
J. Tablazon ◽  
L. Dasallas ◽  
L. A. Gonzalo ◽  
K. M. Cabacaba ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Storm Surge ◽  
Disaster Response ◽  
Residential Buildings ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Disaster Mitigation ◽  
Inundation Maps ◽  
Critical Facilities ◽  
Strong Winds ◽  
Land Use Plan

Abstract. Super Typhoon Haiyan entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) 7 November 2013, causing tremendous damage to infrastructure and loss of lives mainly due to the storm surge and strong winds. Storm surges up to a height of 7 m were reported in the hardest hit areas. The threat imposed by this kind of natural calamity compelled researchers of the Nationwide Operational Assessment of Hazards (Project NOAH), the flagship disaster mitigation program of the Department of Science and Technology (DOST), Government of the Philippines, to undertake a study to determine the vulnerability of all Philippine coastal communities to storm surges of the same magnitude as those generated by Haiyan. This study calculates the maximum probable storm surge height for every coastal locality by running simulations of Haiyan-type conditions but with tracks of tropical cyclones that entered PAR from 1948–2013. One product of this study is a list of the 30 most vulnerable coastal areas that can be used as basis for choosing priority sites for further studies to implement appropriate site-specific solutions for flood risk management. Another product is the storm tide inundation maps that the local government units can use to develop a risk-sensitive land use plan for identifying appropriate areas to build residential buildings, evacuation sites, and other critical facilities and lifelines. The maps can also be used to develop a disaster response plan and evacuation scheme.

scholarly journals ANALYSIS OF A SCHOOL BUILDING AGAINST TYPHOON HAIYAN STORM SURGE FORCES

2020 ◽  
pp. 12
Author(s):  
Justin Joseph Valdez ◽  
Tomoya Shibayama
Keyword(s):  
Storm Surge ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Ocean Model ◽  
School Buildings ◽  
School Building ◽  
Building Model ◽  
Strong Winds ◽  
Storm Surge Event

In 2013 Typhoon Haiyan dealt strong winds and storm surges to Tacloban City, Philippines. After that, the standard public school buildings were designed using the load provisions of the updated 2015 National Structural Code of the Philippines. However, it is important to analyze if the school buildings can resist failure against another Haiyan storm surge event. Haiyan was simulated using the the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model, and the storm surge was simulated using the Finite Volume Community Ocean Model (FVCOM). The wind and flood loads were then calculated and applied on a two-story school building model in STAAD.Pro, and the maximum shear forces and bending moments in the 300 beams and columns were compared to its capacity.Recorded Presentation from the vICCE (YouTube Link): https://youtu.be/P3E1_aizbnE

scholarly journals Hurricane Flood Hazard Assessment for the Archipelago of San Andres, Providencia and Santa Catalina, Colombia

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wilmer Rey ◽  
Pablo Ruiz-Salcines ◽  
Paulo Salles ◽  
Claudia P. Urbano-Latorre ◽  
Germán Escobar-Olaya ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Water Level ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Sea Water ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Development Planning ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Flooded Area ◽  
Hurricane Storm Surge ◽  
San Andres

Despite the low occurrence of tropical cyclones at the archipelago of San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina (Colombia), Hurricane Iota in 2020 made evident the area vulnerability to tropical cyclones as major hazards by obliterating 56.4 % of housing, partially destroying the remaining houses in Providencia. We investigated the hurricane storm surge inundation in the archipelago by forcing hydrodynamic models with synthetic tropical cyclones and hypothetical hurricanes. The storm surge from synthetic events allowed identifying the strongest surges using the probability distribution, enabling the generation of hurricane storm surge flood maps for 100 and 500 year return periods. This analysis suggested that the east of San Andres and Providencia are the more likely areas to be flooded from hurricanes storm surges. The hypothetical events were used to force the hydrodynamic model to create worst-case flood scenario maps, useful for contingency and development planning. Additionally, Hurricane Iota flood levels were calculated using 2D and 1D models. The 2D model included storm surge (SS), SS with astronomical tides (AT), and SS with AT and wave setup (WS), resulting in a total flooded area (percentage related to Providencia’s total area) of 67.05 ha (3.25 %), 65.23 ha (3.16 %), and 76.68 ha (3.68%), respectively. While Hurricane Iota occurred during low tide, the WS contributed 14.93 % (11.45 ha) of the total flooded area in Providencia. The 1D approximation showed that during the storm peak in the eastern of the island, the contribution of AT, SS, and wave runup to the maximum sea water level was −3.01%, 46.36%, and 56.55 %, respectively. This finding provides evidence of the water level underestimation in insular environments when modeling SS without wave contributions. The maximum SS derived from Iota was 1.25 m at the east of Providencia, which according to this study has an associated return period of 3,234 years. The methodology proposed in this study can be applied to other coastal zones and may include the effect of climate change on hurricane storm surges and sea-level rise. Results from this study are useful for emergency managers, government, coastal communities, and policymakers as civil protection measures.

scholarly journals Identification of storm surge vulnerable areas in the Philippines through the simulation of Typhoon Haiyan-induced storm surge levels over historical storm tracks

2015 ◽  
Vol 15 (7) ◽  
pp. 1473-1481 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. P. Lapidez ◽  
J. Tablazon ◽  
L. Dasallas ◽  
L. A. Gonzalo ◽  
K. M. Cabacaba ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Storm Surge ◽  
Disaster Response ◽  
Residential Buildings ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Disaster Mitigation ◽  
Critical Facilities ◽  
Strong Winds ◽  
Land Use Plan ◽  
Philippine Government

Abstract. Super Typhoon Haiyan entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on 7 November 2013, causing tremendous damage to infrastructure and loss of lives mainly due to the storm surge and strong winds. Storm surges up to a height of 7 m were reported in the hardest hit areas. The threat imposed by this kind of natural calamity compelled researchers of the Nationwide Operational Assessment of Hazards (Project NOAH) which is the flagship disaster mitigation program of the Department of Science and Technology (DOST) of the Philippine government to undertake a study to determine the vulnerability of all Philippine coastal communities to storm surges of the same magnitude as those generated by Haiyan. This study calculates the maximum probable storm surge height for every coastal locality by running simulations of Haiyan-type conditions but with tracks of tropical cyclones that entered PAR from 1948–2013. One product of this study is a list of the 30 most vulnerable coastal areas that can be used as a basis for choosing priority sites for further studies to implement appropriate site-specific solutions for flood risk management. Another product is the storm tide inundation maps that the local government units can use to develop a risk-sensitive land use plan for identifying appropriate areas to build residential buildings, evacuation sites, and other critical facilities and lifelines. The maps can also be used to develop a disaster response plan and evacuation scheme.

scholarly journals Maximum wind radius estimated by the 50 kt radius: improvement of storm surge forecasting over the western North Pacific

2016 ◽  
Vol 16 (3) ◽  
pp. 705-717 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hiroshi Takagi ◽  
Wenjie Wu
Keyword(s):  
Storm Surge ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Western North Pacific ◽  
Estimation Method ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Estimation Methods ◽  
Central Pressure ◽  
Estimation Errors ◽  
Maximum Wind

Abstract. Even though the maximum wind radius (Rmax) is an important parameter in determining the intensity and size of tropical cyclones, it has been overlooked in previous storm surge studies. This study reviews the existing estimation methods for Rmax based on central pressure or maximum wind speed. These over- or underestimate Rmax because of substantial variations in the data, although an average radius can be estimated with moderate accuracy. As an alternative, we propose an Rmax estimation method based on the radius of the 50 kt wind (R50). Data obtained by a meteorological station network in the Japanese archipelago during the passage of strong typhoons, together with the JMA typhoon best track data for 1990–2013, enabled us to derive the following simple equation, Rmax  =  0.23 R50. Application to a recent strong typhoon, the 2015 Typhoon Goni, confirms that the equation provides a good estimation of Rmax, particularly when the central pressure became considerably low. Although this new method substantially improves the estimation of Rmax compared to the existing models, estimation errors are unavoidable because of fundamental uncertainties regarding the typhoon's structure or insufficient number of available typhoon data. In fact, a numerical simulation for the 2013 Typhoon Haiyan as well as 2015 Typhoon Goni demonstrates a substantial difference in the storm surge height for different Rmax. Therefore, the variability of Rmax should be taken into account in storm surge simulations (e.g., Rmax  =  0.15 R50–0.35 R50), independently of the model used, to minimize the risk of over- or underestimating storm surges. The proposed method is expected to increase the predictability of major storm surges and to contribute to disaster risk management, particularly in the western North Pacific, including countries such as Japan, China, Taiwan, the Philippines, and Vietnam.

scholarly journals Storm surge risk mitigation under ambiguity by coupled tropical cyclone and decision model

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Toshio Fujimi ◽  
Ha Si ◽  
Xinyu Jiang ◽  
Nobuhito Mori ◽  
Rawshan Begum ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Risk Premium ◽  
Stated Preference ◽  
Risk Mitigation ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Important Conclusion ◽  
Stated Preference Experiments ◽  
Fresh Perspective

Abstract Even as storm surge risks are increasing, the projections of such risks have an element of ambiguity. Consequently, policymakers find it extremely difficult to design policies to deal with storm surge risks. Therefore, in this study, we have linked the tropical cyclone models and stated preference experiments with decision models to provide a fresh perspective on households’ preferences for storm surge risk mitigation under ambiguity. We have validated households’ choices under the average and worst projections of storm surges and estimated the expected loss reduction, risk premium, and ambiguity premium for storm surge risk mitigation. Our study reveals that households pay disproportionately more attention to the worst case and that the ambiguity premium is not negligible. This leads to an important conclusion that policymakers should factor in the ambiguity premium to formulate risk mitigation policies.

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