scholarly journals The 2015 Plains Elevated Convection at Night Field Project

2017 ◽  
Vol 98 (4) ◽  
pp. 767-786 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bart Geerts ◽  
David Parsons ◽  
Conrad L. Ziegler ◽  
Tammy M. Weckwerth ◽  
Michael I. Biggerstaff ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Great Plains ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Convective Available Potential Energy ◽  
Warm Season ◽  
Lower Troposphere ◽  
Convective Systems ◽  
Predictive Skill ◽  
Mesoscale Convective ◽  
The Rich ◽  
Convection Initiation

Abstract The central Great Plains region in North America has a nocturnal maximum in warm-season precipitation. Much of this precipitation comes from organized mesoscale convective systems (MCSs). This nocturnal maximum is counterintuitive in the sense that convective activity over the Great Plains is out of phase with the local generation of CAPE by solar heating of the surface. The lower troposphere in this nocturnal environment is typically characterized by a low-level jet (LLJ) just above a stable boundary layer (SBL), and convective available potential energy (CAPE) values that peak above the SBL, resulting in convection that may be elevated, with source air decoupled from the surface. Nocturnal MCS-induced cold pools often trigger undular bores and solitary waves within the SBL. A full understanding of the nocturnal precipitation maximum remains elusive, although it appears that bore-induced lifting and the LLJ may be instrumental to convection initiation and the maintenance of MCSs at night. To gain insight into nocturnal MCSs, their essential ingredients, and paths toward improving the relatively poor predictive skill of nocturnal convection in weather and climate models, a large, multiagency field campaign called Plains Elevated Convection At Night (PECAN) was conducted in 2015. PECAN employed three research aircraft, an unprecedented coordinated array of nine mobile scanning radars, a fixed S-band radar, a unique mesoscale network of lower-tropospheric profiling systems called the PECAN Integrated Sounding Array (PISA), and numerous mobile-mesonet surface weather stations. The rich PECAN dataset is expected to improve our understanding and prediction of continental nocturnal warm-season precipitation. This article provides a summary of the PECAN field experiment and preliminary findings.

scholarly journals Use of the Parcel Buoyancy Minimum (Bmin) to Diagnose Simulated Thermodynamic Destabilization. Part II: Composite Analysis of Mature MCS Environments

2014 ◽  
Vol 142 (3) ◽  
pp. 967-990 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stanley B. Trier ◽  
Christopher A. Davis ◽  
David A. Ahijevych ◽  
Kevin W. Manning
Keyword(s):  
Convective Available Potential Energy ◽  
Warm Season ◽  
Vertical Motion ◽  
Leading Edge ◽  
Composite Analysis ◽  
Convective Systems ◽  
Central United States ◽  
Adiabatic Cooling ◽  
Mesoscale Convective ◽  
Convection Initiation

Abstract Herein, the parcel buoyancy minimum (Bmin) defined in Part I of this two-part paper is used to examine physical processes influencing thermodynamic destabilization in environments of mature simulated mesoscale convective systems (MCSs). These convection-permitting simulations consist of twelve 24-h forecasts during two 6-day periods characterized by two different commonly occurring warm-season weather regimes that support MCSs over the central United States. A composite analysis of 22 MCS environments is performed where cases are stratified into surface-based (SB), elevated squall (ES), and elevated nonsquall (ENS) categories. A gradual reduction of lower-tropospheric Bmin to values indicative of small convection inhibition, occurring over horizontal scales >100 km from the MCS leading edge, is a common aspect of each category. These negative buoyancy decreases are most pronounced for the ES and ENS environments, in which convective available potential energy (CAPE) is greatest for air parcels originating above the surface. The implication is that the vertical structure of the mesoscale environment plays a key role in the evolution and sustenance of convection long after convection initiation and internal MCS circulations develop, particularly in elevated systems. Budgets of Bmin forcing are computed for the nocturnally maturing ES and ENS composites. Though warm advection occurs through the entire 1.5-km-deep layer comprising the vertical intersection of the largest environmental CAPE and smallest environmental Bmin magnitude, the net effect of terms involving vertical motion dominate the destabilization in both composites. These effects include humidity increases in air parcels due to vertical moisture advection and the adiabatic cooling of the environment above.

scholarly journals 100 Years of Research on Mesoscale Convective Systems

2018 ◽  
Vol 59 ◽  
pp. 17.1-17.54 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert A. Houze
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Lower Troposphere ◽  
Mesoscale Convective Systems ◽  
Convective Systems ◽  
Time Space ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
Mesoscale Convective ◽  
Cumulonimbus Clouds ◽  
Insight Into

Abstract When cumulonimbus clouds aggregate, developing into a single entity with precipitation covering a horizontal scale of hundreds of kilometers, they are called mesoscale convective systems (MCSs). They account for much of Earth’s precipitation, generate severe weather events and flooding, produce prodigious cirriform anvil clouds, and affect the evolution of the larger-scale circulation. Understanding the inner workings of MCSs has resulted from developments in observational technology and modeling. Time–space conversion of ordinary surface and upper-air observations provided early insight into MCSs, but deeper understanding has followed field campaigns using increasingly sophisticated radars, better aircraft instrumentation, and an ever-widening range of satellite instruments, especially satellite-borne radars. High-resolution modeling and theoretical insights have shown that aggregated cumulonimbus clouds induce a mesoscale circulation consisting of air overturning on a scale larger than the scale of individual convective up- and downdrafts. These layers can be kilometers deep and decoupled from the boundary layer in elevated MCSs. Cooling in the lower troposphere and heating aloft characterize the stratiform regions of MCSs. As a result, long-lived MCSs with large stratiform regions have a top-heavy heating profile that generates potential vorticity in midlevels, thus influencing the larger-scale circulation within which the MCSs occur. Global satellite data show MCSs varying in structure, depending on the prevailing large-scale circulation and topography. These patterns are likely to change with global warming. In addition, environmental pollution affects MCS structure and dynamics subtly. Feedbacks of MCSs therefore need to be included or parameterized in climate models.

Initiation Mechanisms of Nocturnal Convection without Nearby Surface Boundaries over the Central and Southern Great Plains during the Warm Season

2018 ◽  
Vol 146 (9) ◽  
pp. 3053-3078 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dylan W. Reif ◽  
Howard B. Bluestein
Keyword(s):  
Case Studies ◽  
Great Plains ◽  
Field Experiments ◽  
Warm Season ◽  
Surface Boundary ◽  
Spatiotemporal Resolution ◽  
Southern Great Plains ◽  
Convective Systems ◽  
Low Level Jet ◽  
Convection Initiation

Abstract The number of case studies in the literature of nocturnal convection has increased during the past decade, especially those that utilize high-spatiotemporal-resolution datasets from field experiments such as the International H2O Project (IHOP_2002) and Plains Elevated Convection at Night (PECAN). However, there are few case studies of events for convection initiation without a nearby surface boundary. These events account for approximately 25% of all nocturnal convection initiation (CI) events. Unique characteristics of these events include a peak initiation time later at night, a preferred initiation location in northern Kansas and southern Nebraska, and a preferred north–south orientation to linear convective systems. In this study, four case studies of convection that is initiated without a nearby surface boundary are detailed to reveal a number of possible initiation mechanisms, including quasigeostrophic-aided ascent, elevated ascent associated with convergent layers (of unknown causes), the low-level jet, and gravity waves. The case studies chosen illustrate the wide variety of synoptic-scale conditions under which these events can occur.

Forecasting the Maintenance of Quasi-Linear Mesoscale Convective Systems

2007 ◽  
Vol 22 (3) ◽  
pp. 556-570 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael C. Coniglio ◽  
Harold E. Brooks ◽  
Steven J. Weiss ◽  
Stephen F. Corfidi
Keyword(s):  
Convective Available Potential Energy ◽  
Warm Season ◽  
Value Added ◽  
Convective Cloud ◽  
Mesoscale Convective Systems ◽  
Linear Discriminant ◽  
Convective Systems ◽  
Shear Component ◽  
Mesoscale Convective ◽  
Deep Layers

Abstract The problem of forecasting the maintenance of mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) is investigated through an examination of observed proximity soundings. Furthermore, environmental variables that are statistically different between mature and weakening MCSs are input into a logistic regression procedure to develop probabilistic guidance on MCS maintenance, focusing on warm-season quasi-linear systems that persist for several hours. Between the mature and weakening MCSs, shear vector magnitudes over very deep layers are the best discriminators among hundreds of kinematic and thermodynamic variables. An analysis of the shear profiles reveals that the shear component perpendicular to MCS motion (usually parallel to the leading line) accounts for much of this difference in low levels and the shear component parallel to MCS motion accounts for much of this difference in mid- to upper levels. The lapse rates over a significant portion of the convective cloud layer, the convective available potential energy, and the deep-layer mean wind speed are also very good discriminators and collectively provide a high level of discrimination between the mature and dissipation soundings as revealed by linear discriminant analysis. Probabilistic equations developed from these variables used with short-term numerical model output show utility in forecasting the transition of an MCS with a solid line of 50+ dBZ echoes to a more disorganized system with unsteady changes in structure and propagation. This study shows that empirical forecast tools based on environmental relationships still have the potential to provide forecasters with improved information on the qualitative characteristics of MCS structure and longevity. This is especially important since the current and near-term value added by explicit numerical forecasts of convection is still uncertain.

scholarly journals The Evolution of Morning Convective Systems over the U.S. Great Plains during the Warm Season. Part II: A Climatology and the Influence of Environmental Factors

2008 ◽  
Vol 136 (3) ◽  
pp. 929-944 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carl E. Hane ◽  
John A. Haynes ◽  
David L. Andra ◽  
Frederick H. Carr
Keyword(s):  
Great Plains ◽  
Warm Season ◽  
The United States ◽  
Mesoscale Convective Systems ◽  
Limited Area ◽  
Southern Plains ◽  
Convective Systems ◽  
Mesoscale Convective ◽  
Synoptic Features ◽  
Discriminant Analyses

Abstract Mesoscale convective systems that affect a limited area within the southern plains of the United States during late morning hours during the warm season are investigated. A climatological study over a 5-yr period documents the initiation locations and times, tracks, associated severe weather, and relation to synoptic features over the lifetimes of 145 systems. An assessment is also made of system evolution in each case during the late morning. For a subset of 48 systems, vertical profiles of basic variables from Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) model analyses are used to characterize the environment of each system. Scatter diagrams and discriminant analyses are used to assess which environmental variables are most promising in helping to determine which of two classes of evolutionary character each system will follow.

Contrasting Spring and Summer Large-Scale Environments Associated with Mesoscale Convective Systems over the U.S. Great Plains

2019 ◽  
Vol 32 (20) ◽  
pp. 6749-6767 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fengfei Song ◽  
Zhe Feng ◽  
L. Ruby Leung ◽  
Robert A. Houze Jr. ◽  
Jingyu Wang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Great Plains ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Explanatory Power ◽  
Convective Available Potential Energy ◽  
Precipitation Amount ◽  
Mesoscale Convective Systems ◽  
Self Organizing Maps ◽  
Convective Systems ◽  
Mesoscale Convective ◽  
The U.S

Abstract Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) are frequently observed over the U.S. Great Plains during boreal spring and summer. Here, four types of synoptically favorable environments for spring MCSs and two types each of synoptically favorable and unfavorable environments for summer MCSs are identified using self-organizing maps (SOMs) with inputs from observational data. During spring, frontal systems providing a lifting mechanism and an enhanced Great Plains low-level jet (GPLLJ) providing anomalous moisture are important features identified by SOM analysis for creating favorable dynamical and thermodynamic environments for MCS development. During summer, the composite MCS environment shows small positive convective available potential energy (CAPE) and convective inhibition (CIN) anomalies, which are in stark contrast with the large positive CAPE and negative CIN anomalies in spring. This contrast suggests that summer convection may occur even with weak large-scale dynamical and thermodynamic perturbations so MCSs may be inherently less predictable in summer. The two synoptically favorable environments identified in summer have frontal characteristics and an enhanced GPLLJ, but both shift north compared to spring. The two synoptically unfavorable environments feature enhanced upper-level ridges, but differ in the strength of the GPLLJ. In both seasons, MCS precipitation amount, area, and rate are much larger in the frontal-related MCSs than in nonfrontal MCSs. A large-scale index constructed using pattern correlation between large-scale environments and the synoptically favorable SOM types is found to be skillful for estimating MCS number, precipitation rate, and area in spring, but its explanatory power decreases significantly in summer. The low predictability of summer MCSs deserves further investigation in the future.

The Role of Upper-Level Coupling on Great Plains Low-Level Jet Structure and Variability

2020 ◽  
Vol 77 (12) ◽  
pp. 4317-4335
Author(s):  
D. Alex Burrows ◽  
Craig R. Ferguson ◽  
Lance F. Bosart
Keyword(s):  
Great Plains ◽  
Atmospheric Stability ◽  
Warm Season ◽  
Inertial Oscillation ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Convective Systems ◽  
Mesoscale Convective ◽  
Southern Central ◽  
Low Level Jet ◽  
Upper Level

AbstractThe Great Plains (GP) southerly nocturnal low-level jet (GPLLJ) is a dominant contributor to the region’s warm-season (May–September) mean and extreme precipitation, wind energy generation, and severe weather outbreaks—including mesoscale convective systems. The spatiotemporal structure, variability, and impact of individual GPLLJ events are closely related to their degree of upper-level synoptic coupling, which varies from strong coupling in synoptic trough–ridge environments to weak coupling in quiescent, synoptic ridge environments. Here, we apply an objective dynamic classification of GPLLJ upper-level coupling and fully characterize strongly coupled (C) and relatively uncoupled (UC) GPLLJs from the perspective of the ground-based observer. Through composite analyses of C and UC GPLLJ event samples taken from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts’ Coupled Earth Reanalysis of the twentieth century (CERA-20C), we address how the frequency of these jet types, as well as their inherent weather- and climate-relevant characteristics—including wind speed, direction, and shear; atmospheric stability; and precipitation—vary on diurnal and monthly time scales across the southern, central, and northern subregions of the GP. It is shown that C and UC GPLLJ events have similar diurnal phasing, but the diurnal amplitude is much greater for UC GPLLJs. C GPLLJs tend to have a faster and more elevated jet nose, less low-level wind shear, and enhanced CAPE and precipitation. UC GPLLJs undergo a larger inertial oscillation (Blackadar mechanism) for all subregions, and C GPLLJs have greater geostrophic forcing (Holton mechanism) in the southern and northern GP. The results underscore the need to differentiate between C and UC GPLLJs in future seasonal forecast and climate prediction activities.

NAM Model Forecasts of Warm-Season Quasi-Stationary Frontal Environments in the Central United States

2010 ◽  
Vol 25 (4) ◽  
pp. 1281-1292 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shih-Yu Wang ◽  
Adam J. Clark
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Mesoscale Model ◽  
Convective Available Potential Energy ◽  
Warm Season ◽  
Correlation Coefficients ◽  
Precipitable Water ◽  
Wind Fields ◽  
Vapor Flux ◽  
Convective Systems ◽  
Central United States

Abstract Using a composite procedure, North American Mesoscale Model (NAM) forecast and observed environments associated with zonally oriented, quasi-stationary surface fronts for 64 cases during July–August 2006–08 were examined for a large region encompassing the central United States. NAM adequately simulated the general synoptic features associated with the frontal environments (e.g., patterns in the low-level wind fields) as well as the positions of the fronts. However, kinematic fields important to frontogenesis such as horizontal deformation and convergence were overpredicted. Surface-based convective available potential energy (CAPE) and precipitable water were also overpredicted, which was likely related to the overprediction of the kinematic fields through convergence of water vapor flux. In addition, a spurious coherence between forecast deformation and precipitation was found using spatial correlation coefficients. Composite precipitation forecasts featured a broad area of rainfall stretched parallel to the composite front, whereas the composite observed precipitation covered a smaller area and had a WNW–ESE orientation relative to the front, consistent with mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) propagating at a slight right angle relative to the thermal gradient. Thus, deficiencies in the NAM precipitation forecasts may at least partially result from the inability to depict MCSs properly. It was observed that errors in the precipitation forecasts appeared to lag those of the kinematic fields, and so it seems likely that deficiencies in the precipitation forecasts are related to the overprediction of the kinematic fields such as deformation. However, no attempts were made to establish whether the overpredicted kinematic fields actually contributed to the errors in the precipitation forecasts or whether the overpredicted kinematic fields were simply an artifact of the precipitation errors. Regardless of the relationship between such errors, recognition of typical warm-season environments associated with these errors should be useful to operational forecasters.

scholarly journals A Mechanistically Credible, Poleward Shift in Warm-Season Precipitation Projected for the U.S. Southern Great Plains?

2017 ◽  
Vol 30 (20) ◽  
pp. 8275-8298 ◽  
Author(s):  
Melissa S. Bukovsky ◽  
Rachel R. McCrary ◽  
Anji Seth ◽  
Linda O. Mearns
Keyword(s):  
Great Plains ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Warm Season ◽  
Dry Season ◽  
Wet Season ◽  
Southern Great Plains ◽  
Poleward Shift

Abstract Global and regional climate model ensembles project that the annual cycle of rainfall over the southern Great Plains (SGP) will amplify by midcentury. Models indicate that warm-season precipitation will increase during the early spring wet season but shift north earlier in the season, intensifying late summer drying. Regional climate models (RCMs) project larger precipitation changes than their global climate model (GCM) counterparts. This is particularly true during the dry season. The credibility of the RCM projections is established by exploring the larger-scale dynamical and local land–atmosphere feedback processes that drive future changes in the simulations, that is, the responsible mechanisms or processes. In this case, it is found that out of 12 RCM simulations produced for the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP), the majority are mechanistically credible and consistent in the mean changes they are producing in the SGP. Both larger-scale dynamical processes and local land–atmosphere feedbacks drive an earlier end to the spring wet period and deepening of the summer dry season in the SGP. The midlatitude upper-level jet shifts northward, the monsoon anticyclone expands, and the Great Plains low-level jet increases in strength, all supporting a poleward shift in precipitation in the future. This dynamically forced shift causes land–atmosphere coupling to strengthen earlier in the summer, which in turn leads to earlier evaporation of soil moisture in the summer, resulting in extreme drying later in the summer.

scholarly journals Assimilation of Satellite-Derived Soil Moisture for Improved Forecasts of the Great Plains Low-Level Jet

2020 ◽  
Vol 148 (11) ◽  
pp. 4607-4627
Author(s):  
Craig R. Ferguson ◽  
Shubhi Agrawal ◽  
Mark C. Beauharnois ◽  
Geng Xia ◽  
D. Alex Burrows ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Wind Speed ◽  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Great Plains ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
Added Value ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Convective Systems ◽  
South Central ◽  
Mesoscale Convective

AbstractIn the context of forecasting societally impactful Great Plains low-level jets (GPLLJs), the potential added value of satellite soil moisture (SM) data assimilation (DA) is high. GPLLJs are both sensitive to regional soil moisture gradients and frequent drivers of severe weather, including mesoscale convective systems. An untested hypothesis is that SM DA is more effective in forecasts of weakly synoptically forced, or uncoupled GPLLJs, than in forecasts of cyclone-induced coupled GPLLJs. Using the NASA Unified Weather Research and Forecasting (NU-WRF) Model, 75 GPLLJs are simulated at 9-km resolution both with and without NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive SM DA. Differences in modeled SM, surface sensible (SH) and latent heat (LH) fluxes, 2-m temperature (T2), 2-m humidity (Q2), PBL height (PBLH), and 850-hPa wind speed (W850) are quantified for individual jets and jet-type event subsets over the south-central Great Plains, as well as separately for each GPLLJ sector (entrance, core, and exit). At the GPLLJ core, DA-related changes of up to 5.4 kg m−2 in SM can result in T2, Q2, LH, SH, PBLH, and W850 differences of 0.68°C, 0.71 g kg−2, 59.9 W m−2, 52.4 W m−2, 240 m, and 4 m s−1, respectively. W850 differences focus along the jet axis and tend to increase from south to north. Jet-type differences are most evident at the GPLLJ exit where DA increases and decreases W850 in uncoupled and coupled GPLLJs, respectively. Data assimilation marginally reduces negative wind speed bias for all jets, but the correction is greater for uncoupled GPLLJs, as hypothesized.

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