scholarly journals Using Climate Forecasts for Drought Management

2006 ◽  
Vol 45 (10) ◽  
pp. 1353-1361 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anne C. Steinemann
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Economic Valuation ◽  
Evaluation Criteria ◽  
Climate Science ◽  
Economic Benefits ◽  
Seasonal Forecasts ◽  
Climate Forecasts ◽  
Potential Benefits ◽  
State Water ◽  
Climate Prediction Center

Abstract Drought hazards, and the ability to mitigate them with advance warning, offer potentially valuable applications of climate forecast products. Yet the value is often untapped, owing to the gap between climate science and societal decisions. This study bridged that gap; it determined forecast needs among water managers, translated forecasts to meet those needs, and shaped drought decision making to take advantage of forecasts. NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) seasonal precipitation outlooks were converted into a forecast precipitation index (FPI) tailored for water managers in the southeastern United States. The FPI expresses forecasts as a departure from the climatological normal and is consistent with other drought indicators. Evaluations of CPC seasonal forecasts issued during 1995–2000 demonstrated positive skill for drought seasons in the Southeast. In addition, using evaluation criteria of water managers, 88% of forecasts for drought seasons would have appropriately prompted drought responses. Encouraged by these evaluations, and the understandability of the FPI, state water managers started using the forecasts in 2001 for deciding whether to pay farmers to suspend irrigation. Economic benefits of this forecast information were estimated at $100–$350 million in a state-declared drought year (2001, 2002) and $5–$30 million in the other years (2003, 2004). This study provides four main contributions: 1) an investigation of the needs and potential benefits of seasonal forecast information for water management, 2) a method for translating the CPC forecasts into a format needed by water managers, 3) the integration of forecast information into agency decision making, and 4) the economic valuation of that forecast information.

The Weather Roulette: A Game to Communicate the Usefulness of Probabilistic Climate Predictions

2019 ◽  
Vol 100 (10) ◽  
pp. 1909-1921 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marta Terrado ◽  
Llorenç Lledó ◽  
Dragana Bojovic ◽  
Asun Lera St. Clair ◽  
Albert Soret ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Return On Investment ◽  
Climate Science ◽  
Skill Score ◽  
Economic Benefits ◽  
Business Sector ◽  
Weather Forecasts ◽  
Climate Anomalies ◽  
Forecast Quality

AbstractClimate predictions, from three weeks to a decade into the future, can provide invaluable information for climate-sensitive socioeconomic sectors, such as renewable energy, agriculture, or insurance. However, communicating and interpreting these predictions is not straightforward. Barriers hindering user uptake include a terminology gap between climate scientists and users, the difficulties of dealing with probabilistic outcomes for decision-making, and the lower skill of climate predictions compared to the skill of weather forecasts. This paper presents a gaming approach to break communication and understanding barriers through the application of the Weather Roulette conceptual framework. In the game, the player can choose between two forecast options, one that uses ECMWF seasonal predictions against one using climatology-derived probabilities. For each forecast option, the bet is spread proportionally to the predicted probabilities, either in a single year game or a game for the whole period of 33 past years. This paper provides skill maps of forecast quality metrics commonly used by the climate prediction community (e.g., ignorance skill score and ranked probability skill score), which in the game are linked to metrics easily understood by the business sector (e.g., interest rate and return on investment). In a simplified context, we illustrate how in skillful regions the economic benefits of using ECMWF predictions arise in the long term and are higher than using climatology. This paper provides an example of how to convey the usefulness of climate predictions and transfer the knowledge from climate science to potential users. If applied, this approach could provide the basis for a better integration of knowledge about climate anomalies into operational and managerial processes.

scholarly journals Economic Valuation of the Ecosystem Services of the Mesoamerican Reef, and the Allocation and Distribution of these Values

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Itziar Ruiz de Gauna ◽  
Anil Markandya ◽  
Laura Onofri ◽  
Francisco (Patxi) Greño ◽  
Javier Warman ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Coral Reefs ◽  
Natural Resources ◽  
Natural Capital ◽  
Economic Valuation ◽  
Economic Value ◽  
Economic Benefits ◽  
Pharmaceutical Products ◽  
Western Hemisphere ◽  
Barrier Reef

Coral reefs are one of the most diverse and valuable ecosystems on Earth. The Mesoamerican Reef contains the largest barrier reef in the Western Hemisphere. However, its health is threatened, so there is a need for a management and sustainable conservation. Key to this is knowing the economic value of the ecosystem. “Mainstreaming the value of natural capital into policy decision-making is vital” The value of environmental and natural resources reflects what society is willing to pay for a good or service or to conserve natural resources. Conventional economic approaches tended to view value only in terms of the willingness to pay for raw materials and physical products generated for human production and consumption (e.g. fish, mining materials, pharmaceutical products, etc.). As recognition of the potential negative impacts of human activity on the environment became more widespread, economists began to understand that people might also be willing to pay for other reasons beyond the own current use of the service (e.g. to protect coral reefs from degradation or to know that coral reefs will remain intact in the future). As a result of this debate, Total Economic Value (TEV) became the most widely used and commonly accepted framework for classifying economic benefits of ecosystems and for trying to integrate them into decision-making. This report estimates the economic value of the following goods and services provided by the MAR's coral reefs: Tourism & Recreation, Fisheries, Shoreline protection. To our knowledge, the inclusion of non-use values in the economic valuation of the Mesoamerican Barrier Reef System is novel, which makes the study more comprehensive.

Toward the Application of Decadal Climate Predictions

2018 ◽  
Vol 57 (3) ◽  
pp. 555-568 ◽  
Author(s):  
Erin Towler ◽  
Debasish PaiMazumder ◽  
James Done
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Science ◽  
The United States ◽  
Seasonal Forecasts ◽  
Climate System Model ◽  
Advantages And Disadvantages ◽  
Climate Forecasts ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Translation Methods ◽  
Decadal Climate

AbstractDecadal prediction is a relatively new branch of climate science that bridges the gap between seasonal climate forecasts and multidecadal-to-century projections of climate change. This paper develops a three-step framework toward the potential application of decadal temperature predictions using the Community Climate System Model, version 4 (CCSM4). In step 1, the predictions are evaluated and it is found that the temperature hindcasts show skill over some regions of the United States and Canada. In step 2, the predictions are manipulated using two methods: a deterministic-anomaly approach (like climate change projections) and a probabilistic tercile-based approach (like seasonal forecasts). In step 3, the predictions are translated by adding a delta (for the anomaly manipulation) and conducting a weighted resample (for the probabilistic manipulation), as well as using a new hybrid method. Using the 2010 initialized hindcast, the framework is demonstrated for predicting 2011–15 over two case-study watersheds [Ottawa (Canada) and Colorado]. For the Colorado watershed, there was a noticeable shift toward higher temperatures, and the delta, weighted resample, and hybrid translations all were better at capturing the observed temperatures than was an approach that used climatological values. For the Ottawa watershed, the observed temperatures over the period of prediction were only subtly different than the climatological values; therefore, the difference between the translation methods was less noticeable. The advantages and disadvantages of the manipulation and translation approaches are discussed, as well as how their use will depend on the user context. The authors emphasize that skill evaluations should be tailored to particular applications and identify additional steps that are needed before the decadal temperature predictions can be readily incorporated into applications.

scholarly journals Estimating the Potential Economic Value of Seasonal Forecasts in West Africa: A Long-Term Ex-Ante Assessment in Senegal

2010 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 69-87 ◽  
Author(s):  
Benjamin Sultan ◽  
Bruno Barbier ◽  
Jeanne Fortilus ◽  
Serigne Modou Mbaye ◽  
Grégoire Leclerc
Keyword(s):  
West Africa ◽  
Rainy Season ◽  
Dynamic Models ◽  
Economic Benefits ◽  
Semiarid Region ◽  
Seasonal Forecasts ◽  
Multimodel Ensemble ◽  
Rainfall Prediction ◽  
Smallholder Farm ◽  
Potential Benefits

Abstract Recent improvements in the capability of statistical or dynamic models to predict climate fluctuations several months in advance may be an opportunity to improve the management of climatic risk in rain-fed agriculture. The aim of this paper is to evaluate the potential benefits that seasonal climate predictions can bring to farmers in West Africa. The authors have developed an archetypal bioeconomic model of a smallholder farm in Nioro du Rip, a semiarid region of Senegal. The model is used to simulate the decisions of farmers who have access to a priori information on the quality of the next rainy season. First, the potential economic benefits of a perfect rainfall prediction scheme are evaluated, showing how these benefits are affected by forecast accuracy. Then, the potential benefits of several widely used rainfall prediction schemes are evaluated: one group of schemes based on the statistical relationship between rainfall and sea surface temperatures, and one group based on the predictions of coupled ocean–atmosphere models. The results show that forecasting a dryer than average rainy season would be the most useful to Nioro du Rip farmers if they interpret forecasts as deterministic. Indeed, because forecasts are imperfect, predicting a wetter than average rainy season exposes the farmers to a high risk of failure by favoring cash crops such as maize and peanut that are highly vulnerable to drought. On the other hand, the farmers’ response to a forecast of a dryer than average rainy season minimizes the climate risk by favoring robust crops such as millet and sorghum, which will tolerate higher rainfall in case the forecast is wrong. When either statistical or dynamic climate models are used for forecasting under the same lead time and the same 31-yr hindcast period (i.e., 1970–2000), similar skill and economic values at farm level are found. When a dryer than average rainy season is predicted, both methods yield an increase of the farmers’ income—13.8% for the statistical model and 9.6% for the bias-corrected Development of a European Multimodel Ensemble System for Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction (DEMETER) multimodel ensemble mean.

scholarly journals Widening the common space to reduce the gap between climate science and decision-making in industry

2021 ◽  
Vol 23 ◽  
pp. 100237
Author(s):  
Luise J. Fischer ◽  
Heini Wernli ◽  
David N. Bresch
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Climate Science ◽  
Common Space ◽  
The Common

DRUG EVALUATION AND DECISION MAKING IN CATALONIA: DEVELOPMENT AND VALIDATION OF A METHODOLOGICAL FRAMEWORK BASED ON MULTI-CRITERIA DECISION ANALYSIS (MCDA) FOR ORPHAN DRUGS

2017 ◽  
Vol 33 (1) ◽  
pp. 111-120 ◽  
Author(s):  
Antoni Gilabert-Perramon ◽  
Josep Torrent-Farnell ◽  
Arancha Catalan ◽  
Alba Prat ◽  
Manel Fontanet ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Decision Analysis ◽  
Unmet Needs ◽  
Drug Evaluation ◽  
Evaluation Criteria ◽  
Orphan Drugs ◽  
Methodological Framework ◽  
Multi Criteria Decision Analysis ◽  
Development And Validation ◽  
Weighting Technique

Objectives:The aim of this study was to adapt and assess the value of a Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) framework (EVIDEM) for the evaluation of Orphan drugs in Catalonia (Catalan Health Service).Methods:The standard evaluation and decision-making procedures of CatSalut were compared with the EVIDEM methodology and contents. The EVIDEM framework was adapted to the Catalan context, focusing on the evaluation of Orphan drugs (PASFTAC program), during a Workshop with sixteen PASFTAC members. The criteria weighting was done using two different techniques (nonhierarchical and hierarchical). Reliability was assessed by re-test.Results:The EVIDEM framework and methodology was found useful and feasible for Orphan drugs evaluation and decision making in Catalonia. All the criteria considered for the development of the CatSalut Technical Reports and decision making were considered in the framework. Nevertheless, the framework could improve the reporting of some of these criteria (i.e., “unmet needs” or “nonmedical costs”). Some Contextual criteria were removed (i.e., “Mandate and scope of healthcare system”, “Environmental impact”) or adapted (“population priorities and access”) for CatSalut purposes. Independently of the weighting technique considered, the most important evaluation criteria identified for orphan drugs were: “disease severity”, “unmet needs” and “comparative effectiveness”, while the “size of the population” had the lowest relevance for decision making. Test–retest analysis showed weight consistency among techniques, supporting reliability overtime.Conclusions:MCDA (EVIDEM framework) could be a useful tool to complement the current evaluation methods of CatSalut, contributing to standardization and pragmatism, providing a method to tackle ethical dilemmas and facilitating discussions related to decision making.

Study of highway asphalt pavement recycling maintenance scheme decision system and decision method

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-10
Author(s):  
Hongjun Jing ◽  
Ping Yao ◽  
Lichen Song ◽  
Jiahao Zhang ◽  
Yanlong Zhao ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Evaluation System ◽  
Evaluation Method ◽  
Comprehensive Evaluation ◽  
Asphalt Pavement ◽  
Economic Benefits ◽  
Highway Maintenance ◽  
Decision System ◽  
Recovery Index ◽  
Pavement Recycling

With modern economic and social development, the technical and economic requirements of highway maintenance and construction projects have become increasingly complicated. Meticulous and in-depth investigation and demonstration guided by scientific theories and methods are of considerable importance to highway maintenance scheme decision. As basis for the selection of highway asphalt pavement recycling maintenance scheme, the factors influencing the decision are analytically demonstrated and an evaluation system is proposed, including three major decision indexes: applicability of recycling mode, recycled pavement quality recovery index, and economic benefit. According to the principles of data statistics and analysis, this study proposes a calculation method for the recycled pavement quality recovery index, analyzes the economic benefits of decision schemes using economic models such as recycling ratio and cost, and puts forward an optimal evaluation method of engineering cost and its fuzzy score intervals. Index weights are calculated through the analytic hierarchy process, and the comprehensive decision evaluation system and comprehensive evaluation method are established. Subsequently, the decision-making method is analyzed on the basis of the decision system by combining the related data. Results show maximum weight of the pavement quality recovery index and minor differences among four recycling schemes in the quality recovery index and applicability. The decision-making results are simplified with clear hierarchical feature because of the fuzzy score intervals of each index. Findings can provide a reference for the asphalt pavement recycling scheme decision.

scholarly journals Does Scientific Uncertainty in News Articles Affect Readers’ Trust and Decision-Making?

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 401-412 ◽  
Author(s):  
Friederike Hendriks ◽  
Regina Jucks
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Research Methods ◽  
Epistemic Uncertainty ◽  
Climate Science ◽  
News Article ◽  
Scientific Uncertainty ◽  
Knowing That ◽  
Cast Doubt ◽  
Scientific Results ◽  
Negative Impacts

Even though a main goal of science is to reduce the uncertainty in scientific results by applying ever-improving research methods, epistemic uncertainty is an integral part of science. As such, while uncertainty might be communicated in news articles about climate science, climate skeptics have also exploited this uncertainty to cast doubt on science itself. We performed two studies to assess whether scientific uncertainty affects laypeople’s assessments of issue uncertainty, the credibility of the information, their trust in scientists and climate science, and impacts their decision-making. In addition, we addressed how these effects are influenced by further information on relevant scientific processes, because knowing that uncertainty goes along with scientific research could ease laypeople’s interpretations of uncertainty around evidence and may even protect against negative impacts of such uncertainty on trust. Unexpectedly, in study 1, after participants read both a text about research methods and a news article that included scientific uncertainty, they had lower trust in the scientists’ assertions than when they read the uncertain news article alone (but this did not impact trust in climate science or decision-making). In study 2, we tested whether these results occurred due to participants overestimating the scientific uncertainty at hand. Hence, we varied the framing of uncertainty in the text on scientific processes. We found that exaggerating the scientific uncertainty produced by scientific processes (vs. framing the uncertainty as something to be expected) did not negatively affect participants’ trust ratings. However, the degree to which participants preferred effortful reasoning on problems (intellective epistemic style) correlated with ratings of trust in scientists and climate science and with their decision-making. In sum, there was only little evidence that the introduction of uncertainty in news articles would affect participants’ ratings of trust and their decision-making, but their preferred style of reasoning did.

scholarly journals Nature value: the evolution of this concept

2012 ◽  
Vol 36 (1) ◽  
pp. 9-15
Author(s):  
Sabrina Soares da Silva ◽  
Ricardo Pereira Reis ◽  
Patrícia Aparecida Ferreira
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Natural Resources ◽  
Environmental Degradation ◽  
Economic Valuation ◽  
Human Action ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Environment Management ◽  
Goods And Services ◽  
Current Scenario ◽  
The Impact

More attention has been paid to environmental matters in recent years, mainly due to the current scenario of accentuated environmental degradation. The economic valuation of nature goods can contribute to the decision-making process in environment management, generating a more comprehensive informational base. This paper aims to present, in a historic perspective, the different concepts attributed to nature goods and were related to the current predominant perspectives of nature analyses. For this purpose, this paper presents the different concepts attributed to value since the pre-classical period, when nature were viewed as inert and passive providers of goods and services, this view legitimized nature's exploration without concern over the preservation and conservation of nature. The capacity of nature to absorb the impact of human action appears to be reaching its limit, considering the irreversibility, the irreproducibility and the possibility of collapse. The appropriate method for valuing natural resources is not known, but more important than the method is to respect and incorporate the particular characteristics of the nature goods into this process. These characteristics must be valuated in order to arrive at a more consistence approach to nature value and promote sustainability.

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