scholarly journals The Role of Multiscale Interaction in Tropical Cyclogenesis and Its Predictability in Near-Global Aquaplanet Cloud-Resolving Simulations

2020 ◽  
Vol 77 (8) ◽  
pp. 2847-2863 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pornampai Narenpitak ◽  
Christopher S. Bretherton ◽  
Marat F. Khairoutdinov
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Tropical Cyclogenesis ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Convective Heating ◽  
Framework Analysis ◽  
Absolute Vorticity ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Planetary Scale ◽  
Cloud Resolving Model ◽  
Northern Edge

Abstract Tropical cyclogenesis (TCG) is a multiscale process that involves interactions between large-scale circulation and small-scale convection. A near-global aquaplanet cloud-resolving model (NGAqua) with 4-km horizontal grid spacing that produces tropical cyclones (TCs) is used to investigate TCG and its predictability. This study analyzes an ensemble of three 20-day NGAqua simulations, with initial white-noise perturbations of low-level humidity. TCs develop spontaneously from the northern edge of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ), where large-scale flows and tropical convection provide necessary conditions for barotropic instability. Zonal bands of positive low-level absolute vorticity organize into cyclonic vortices, some of which develop into TCs. A new algorithm is developed to track the cyclonic vortices. A vortex-following framework analysis of the low-level vorticity budget shows that vertical stretching of absolute vorticity due to convective heating contributes positively to the vorticity spinup of the TCs. A case study and composite analyses suggest that sufficient humidity is key for convective development. TCG in these three NGAqua simulations undergoes the same series of interactions. The locations of cyclonic vortices are broadly predetermined by planetary-scale circulation and humidity patterns associated with ITCZ breakdown, which are predictable up to 10 days. Whether and when the cyclonic vortices become TCs depend on the somewhat more random feedback between convection and vorticity.

scholarly journals A Poisson Regression Index for Tropical Cyclone Genesis and the Role of Large-Scale Vorticity in Genesis

2011 ◽  
Vol 24 (9) ◽  
pp. 2335-2357 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael K. Tippett ◽  
Suzana J. Camargo ◽  
Adam H. Sobel
Keyword(s):  
Relative Humidity ◽  
Poisson Regression ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Functional Dependence ◽  
Vertical Shear ◽  
Tropical Cyclogenesis ◽  
Tropical Cyclone Genesis ◽  
Climate Variables ◽  
Absolute Vorticity ◽  
Low Level

Abstract A Poisson regression between the observed climatology of tropical cyclogenesis (TCG) and large-scale climate variables is used to construct a TCG index. The regression methodology is objective and provides a framework for the selection of the climate variables in the index. Broadly following earlier work, four climate variables appear in the index: low-level absolute vorticity, relative humidity, relative sea surface temperature (SST), and vertical shear. Several variants in the choice of predictors are explored, including relative SST versus potential intensity and satellite-based column-integrated relative humidity versus reanalysis relative humidity at a single level; these choices lead to modest differences in the performance of the index. The feature of the new index that leads to the greatest improvement is a functional dependence on low-level absolute vorticity that causes the index response to absolute vorticity to saturate when absolute vorticity exceeds a threshold. This feature reduces some biases of the index and improves the fidelity of its spatial distribution. Physically, this result suggests that once low-level environmental vorticity reaches a sufficiently large value, other factors become rate limiting so that further increases in vorticity (at least on a monthly mean basis) do not increase the probability of genesis. Although the index is fit to climatological data, it reproduces some aspects of interannual variability when applied to interannually varying data. Overall, the new index compares positively to the genesis potential index (GPI), whose derivation, computation, and analysis is more complex in part because of its dependence on potential intensity.

The Role of Equatorial Rossby Waves in Tropical Cyclogenesis. Part I: Idealized Numerical Simulations in an Initially Quiescent Background Environment

2010 ◽  
Vol 138 (4) ◽  
pp. 1368-1382 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jeffrey S. Gall ◽  
William M. Frank ◽  
Matthew C. Wheeler
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Phase Speed ◽  
Tropical Cyclogenesis ◽  
Initial Amplitude ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Wave Simulation ◽  
Horizontal Momentum ◽  
Good Agreement

Abstract This two-part series of papers examines the role of equatorial Rossby (ER) waves in tropical cyclone (TC) genesis. To do this, a unique initialization procedure is utilized to insert n = 1 ER waves into a numerical model that is able to faithfully produce TCs. In this first paper, experiments are carried out under the idealized condition of an initially quiescent background environment. Experiments are performed with varying initial wave amplitudes and with and without diabatic effects. This is done to both investigate how the properties of the simulated ER waves compare to the properties of observed ER waves and explore the role of the initial perturbation strength of the ER wave on genesis. In the dry, frictionless ER wave simulation the phase speed is slightly slower than the phase speed predicted from linear theory. Large-scale ascent develops in the region of low-level poleward flow, which is in good agreement with the theoretical structure of an n = 1 ER wave. The structures and phase speeds of the simulated full-physics ER waves are in good agreement with recent observational studies of ER waves that utilize wavenumber–frequency filtering techniques. Convection occurs primarily in the eastern half of the cyclonic gyre, as do the most favorable conditions for TC genesis. This region features sufficient midlevel moisture, anomalously strong low-level cyclonic vorticity, enhanced convection, and minimal vertical shear. Tropical cyclogenesis occurs only in the largest initial-amplitude ER wave simulation. The formation of the initial tropical disturbance that ultimately develops into a tropical cyclone is shown to be sensitive to the nonlinear horizontal momentum advection terms. When the largest initial-amplitude simulation is rerun with the nonlinear horizontal momentum advection terms turned off, tropical cyclogenesis does not occur, but the convectively coupled ER wave retains the properties of the ER wave observed in the smaller initial-amplitude simulations. It is shown that this isolated wave-only genesis process only occurs for strong ER waves in which the nonlinear advection is large. Part II will look at the more realistic case of ER wave–related genesis in which a sufficiently intense ER wave interacts with favorable large-scale flow features.

A physically motivated approach for filtering acoustic waves from the equations governing compressible stratified flow

2008 ◽  
Vol 601 ◽  
pp. 365-379 ◽  
Author(s):  
DALE R. DURRAN
Keyword(s):  
Acoustic Waves ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Mass Conservation ◽  
Simple Expression ◽  
Reference State ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Sound Waves ◽  
State Equations ◽  
Planetary Scale ◽  
Atmospheric Motions

An incompressibility approximation is formulated for isentropic motions in a compressible stratified fluid by defining a pseudo-density ρ* and enforcing mass conservation with respect to ρ* instead of the true density. Using this approach, sound waves will be eliminated from the governing equations provided ρ* is an explicit function of the space and time coordinates and of entropy. By construction, isentropic pressure perturbations have no influence on the pseudo-density.A simple expression for ρ* is available for perfect gases that allows the approximate mass conservation relation to be combined with the unapproximated momentum and thermodynamic equations to yield a closed system with attractive energy conservation properties. The influence of pressure on the pseudo-density, along with the explicit (x,t) dependence of ρ* is determined entirely by the hydrostatically balanced reference state.Scale analysis shows that the pseudo-incompressible approximation is applicable to motions for which ${\cal M})$2 ≪ min(1,${\cal R})$2, where ${\cal M})$ is the Mach number and ${\cal R}$ the Rossby number. This assumption is easy to satisfy for small-scale atmospheric motions in which the Earth's rotation may be neglected and is also satisfied for quasi-geostrophic synoptic-scale motions, but not planetary-scale waves. This scaling assumption can, however, be relaxed to allow the accurate representation of planetary-scale motions if the pressure in the time-evolving reference state is computed with sufficient accuracy that the large-scale components of the pseudo-incompressible pressure represent small corrections to the total pressure, in which case the full solution to both the pseudo-incompressible and reference-state equations has the potential to accurately model all non-acoustic atmospheric motions.

scholarly journals On the Creation and Evolution of Small-Scale Low-Level Vorticity Anomalies during Tropical Cyclogenesis

2019 ◽  
Vol 76 (8) ◽  
pp. 2335-2355 ◽  
Author(s):  
Warren P. Smith ◽  
Melville E. Nicholls
Keyword(s):  
Environmental Parameters ◽  
Cold Pool ◽  
Tropical Cyclogenesis ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Cold Pools ◽  
Convective Scale ◽  
Vortical Hot Towers ◽  
Formation And Evolution ◽  
Vortex Merger

Abstract Recent numerical modeling and observational studies indicate the importance of vortical hot towers (VHTs) in the transformation of a tropical disturbance to a tropical depression. It has recently been recognized that convective-scale downdraft outflows that form within VHTs also preferentially develop positive vertical vorticity around their edges, which is considerably larger in magnitude than ambient values. During a numerical simulation of tropical cyclogenesis it is found that particularly strong low-level convectively induced vorticity anomalies (LCVAs) occasionally form as convection acts on the enhanced vorticity at the edges of cold pools. These features cycle about the larger-scale circulation and are associated with a coincident pressure depression and low-level wind intensification. The LCVAs studied are considerably deeper than the vorticity produced at the edges of VHT cold pool outflows, and their evolution is associated with persistent convection and vortex merger events that act to sustain them. Herein, we highlight the formation and evolution of two representative LCVAs and discuss the environmental parameters that eventually become favorable for one LCVA to reach the center of a larger-scale circulation as tropical cyclogenesis occurs.

scholarly journals Genesis of Tropical Storm Eugene (2005) from Merging Vortices Associated with ITCZ Breakdowns. Part II: Roles of Vortex Merger and Ambient Potential Vorticity

2009 ◽  
Vol 66 (7) ◽  
pp. 1980-1996 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chanh Q. Kieu ◽  
Da-Lin Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Potential Vorticity ◽  
Tropical Storm ◽  
Heat Fluxes ◽  
Vertical Shear ◽  
Tropical Cyclogenesis ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Absolute Vorticity ◽  
Surface Heat Fluxes ◽  
Vortex Merger ◽  
Bottom Upward

Abstract In this study, the roles of merging midlevel mesoscale convective vortices (MCVs) and convectively generated potential vorticity (PV) patches embedded in the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) in determining tropical cyclogenesis are examined by calculating PV and absolute vorticity budgets with a cloud-resolving simulation of Tropical Storm Eugene (2005). Results show that the vortex merger occurs as the gradual capture of small-scale PV patches within a slow-drifting MCV by another fast-moving MCV, thus concentrating high PV near the merger’s circulation center, with its peak amplitude located slightly above the melting level. The merging phase is characterized by sharp increases in surface heat fluxes, low-level convergence, latent heat release (and upward motion), lower tropospheric PV, surface pressure falls, and growth of cyclonic vorticity from the bottom upward. Melting and freezing appear to affect markedly the vertical structures of diabatic heating, convergence, absolute vorticity, and PV, as well the production of PV during the life cycle of Eugene. Results also show significant contributions of the horizontal vorticity to the magnitude of PV and its production within the storm. The storm-scale PV budgets show that the above-mentioned amplification of PV results partly from the net internal dynamical forcing between the PV condensing and diabatic production and partly from the continuous lateral PV fluxes from the ITCZ. Without the latter, Eugene would likely be shorter lived after the merger under the influence of intense vertical shear and colder sea surface temperatures. The vorticity budget reveals that the storm-scale rotational growth occurs in the deep troposphere as a result of the increased flux convergence of absolute vorticity during the merging phase. Unlike the previously hypothesized downward growth associated with merging MCVs, the most rapid growth rate is found in the bottom layers of the merger because of the frictional convergence. It is concluded that tropical cyclogenesis from merging MCVs occurs from the bottom upward.

scholarly journals Mesoscale Moisture Transport by the Low-Level Jet during the IHOP Field Experiment

2008 ◽  
Vol 136 (10) ◽  
pp. 3781-3795 ◽  
Author(s):  
Edward I. Tollerud ◽  
Fernando Caracena ◽  
Steven E. Koch ◽  
Brian D. Jamison ◽  
R. Michael Hardesty ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Great Plains ◽  
Cross Sections ◽  
Moisture Transport ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
The United States ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Convective Scale ◽  
Low Level Jet

Previous studies of the low-level jet (LLJ) over the central Great Plains of the United States have been unable to determine the role that mesoscale and smaller circulations play in the transport of moisture. To address this issue, two aircraft missions during the International H2O Project (IHOP_2002) were designed to observe closely a well-developed LLJ over the Great Plains (primarily Oklahoma and Kansas) with multiple observation platforms. In addition to standard operational platforms (most important, radiosondes and profilers) to provide the large-scale setting, dropsondes released from the aircraft at 55-km intervals and a pair of onboard lidar instruments—High Resolution Doppler Lidar (HRDL) for wind and differential absorption lidar (DIAL) for moisture—observed the moisture transport in the LLJ at greater resolution. Using these observations, the authors describe the multiscalar structure of the LLJ and then focus attention on the bulk properties and effects of scales of motion by computing moisture fluxes through cross sections that bracket the LLJ. From these computations, the Reynolds averages within the cross sections can be computed. This allow an estimate to be made of the bulk effect of integrated estimates of the contribution of small-scale (mesoscale to convective scale) circulations to the overall transport. The performance of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model in forecasting the intensity and evolution of the LLJ for this case is briefly examined.

scholarly journals Ensemble-Based Error and Predictability Metrics Associated with Tropical Cyclogenesis. Part I: Basinwide Perspective

2014 ◽  
Vol 142 (8) ◽  
pp. 2879-2898 ◽  
Author(s):  
William A. Komaromi ◽  
Sharanya J. Majumdar
Keyword(s):  
Standard Deviation ◽  
Wind Shear ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Predictive Power ◽  
Forecast Error ◽  
Ensemble Prediction ◽  
Tropical Cyclogenesis ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Ensemble Prediction System ◽  
Error Standard Deviation

Abstract Several metrics are employed to evaluate predictive skill and attempt to quantify predictability using the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System during the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season, with an emphasis on large-scale variables relevant to tropical cyclogenesis. These metrics include the following: 1) growth and saturation of error, 2) errors versus climatology, 3) predicted forecast error standard deviation, and 4) predictive power. Overall, variables that are more directly related to large-scale, slowly varying phenomena are found to be much more predictable than variables that are inherently related to small-scale convective processes, regardless of the metric. For example, 850–200-hPa wind shear and 200-hPa velocity potential are found to be predictable beyond one week, while 200-hPa divergence and 850-hPa relative vorticity are only predictable to about one day. Similarly, area-averaged quantities such as circulation are much more predictable than nonaveraged quantities such as vorticity. Significant day-to-day and month-to-month variability of predictability for a given metric also exists, likely due to the flow regime. For wind shear, more amplified flow regimes are associated with lower predictive power (and thereby lower predictability) than less amplified regimes. Relative humidity is found to be less predictable in the early and late season when there exists greater uncertainty of the timing and location of dry air. Last, the ensemble demonstrates the potential to predict error standard deviation of variables averaged in 10° × 10° boxes, in that forecasts with greater ensemble standard deviation are on average associated with greater mean error. However, the ensemble tends to be underdispersive.

scholarly journals Transnational Spaces of Resistance

2021 ◽  
pp. 49-82
Author(s):  
Selin Çağatay ◽  
Mia Liinason ◽  
Olga Sasunkevich
Keyword(s):  
Civil Society ◽  
Social Movement ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Theoretical Foundation ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Low Level ◽  
The Third ◽  
Political Struggles ◽  
Spaces Of Resistance

AbstractThis chapter lays out the theoretical foundation of the book. It conceptualizes resistance as a space in-between small-scale mundane practices with a low level of collective organizing and large-scale protest activities which often exemplify resistance in social movement studies. In line with feminist and queer conceptualization of resistance, the authors suggest to examine multi-scalarity of resistant practices. The chapter attends to three scales of feminist and LGBTI+  activism in Russia, Turkey, and Scandinavia. The first scale analyzes activism in relation to the civil society-state-market triad. The second scale problematizes the notion of solidarity in relations between feminist and LGBTI+  activists from different geopolitical regions and countries as well as between small- and large-scale activist organizations and groups. Finally, the third scale focuses on individual resistant practices and the role of individual bodies in emergence of collective political struggles.

Scale sensitivity of the Gill circulation, Part I: Equatorial case

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Beatriz Reboredo ◽  
Gilles Bellon
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Diabatic Heating ◽  
Energy Transport ◽  
Maximum Velocity ◽  
Spatial Extent ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Dynamical Response ◽  
Overturning Circulation ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Westerly Jet

Abstract We investigate the steady dynamical response of the atmosphere on the equatorial β-plane to a steady, localized, mid-tropospheric heating source at the equator. Expanding Gill (1980)’s seminal work, we vary the latitudinal and longitudinal scales of the diabatic heating pattern while keeping its total amount fixed. We focus on characteristics of the response which would be particularly important if the circulation interacted with the hydrologic and energy cycles: the overturning circulation and the low-level wind. In the limit of very small scale in either the longitudinal or latitudinal direction, the vertical energy transport balances the diabatic heating and this sets the intensity of the overturning circulation. In this limit, a fast low-level westerly jet is located around the center of diabatic heating. With increasing longitudinal or latitudinal scale of the diabatic heating, the intensity of the overturning circulation decreases and the low-level westerly jet decreases in maximum velocity and spatial extent relative to the spatial extent of this heating. The associated low-level eastward mass transport decreases only with increasing longitudinal scale. These results suggest that moisture-convergence feedbacks will favor small-scale equatorial convective disturbances while surface-heat-flux feedbacks would favor small-scale disturbances in mean westerlies and large-scale disturbances in mean easterlies. Part II investigates the case of off-equatorial heating.

scholarly journals Multiscale Interactions in the Life Cycle of a Tropical Cyclone Simulated in a Global Cloud-System-Resolving Model. Part I: Large-Scale and Storm-Scale Evolutions*

2010 ◽  
Vol 138 (12) ◽  
pp. 4285-4304 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hironori Fudeyasu ◽  
Yuqing Wang ◽  
Masaki Satoh ◽  
Tomoe Nasuno ◽  
Hiroaki Miura ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Life Cycle ◽  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Convective Available Potential Energy ◽  
Vertical Shear ◽  
Cloud System ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Multiscale Interactions ◽  
Java Sea

Abstract The Nonhydrostatic Icosahedral Atmospheric Model (NICAM), a global cloud-system-resolving model, successfully simulated the life cycle of Tropical Storm Isobel that formed over the Timor Sea in the austral summer of 2006. The multiscale interactions in the life cycle of the simulated storm were analyzed in this study. The large-scale aspects that affected Isobel’s life cycle are documented in this paper and the corresponding mesoscale processes are documented in a companion paper. The life cycle of Isobel was largely controlled by a Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) event and the associated westerly wind burst (WWB). The MJO was found to have both positive and negative effects on the tropical cyclone intensity depending on the location of the storm relative to the WWB center associated with the MJO. The large-scale low-level convergence and high convective available potential energy (CAPE) downwind of the WWB center provided a favorable region to the cyclogenesis and intensification, whereas the strong large-scale stretching deformation field upwind of the WWB center may weaken the storm by exciting wavenumber-2 asymmetries in the eyewall and leading to the eyewall breakdown. Five stages are identified for the life cycle of the simulated Isobel: the initial eddy, intensifying, temporary weakening, reintensifying, and decaying stages. The initial eddy stage was featured by small-scale/mesoscale convective cyclonic vortices developed in the zonally elongated rainband organized in the preconditioned environment characterized by the WWB over the Java Sea associated with the onset of an MJO event over the East Indian Ocean. As the MJO propagated eastward and the cyclonic eddies moved southward into an environment with weak vertical shear and strong low-level cyclonic vorticity, a typical tropical cyclone structure developed over the Java Sea, namely the genesis of Isobel. Isobel experienced an eyewall breakdown and a temporary weakening when it was located upwind of the WWB center as the MJO propagated southeastward and reintensified as its eyewall reformed as a result of the axisymmetrization of an inward spiraling outer rainband that originally formed downwind of the WWB center. Finally Isobel decayed as it approached the northwest coast of Australia.

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